Population immunity to varicella in Canada: A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of varicella in Canada has decreased by almost 99% since vaccination was introduced. However, variation in the timing and eligibility of vaccination programs across the country has resulted in some cohorts being under-vaccinated and therefore potentially susceptible to infection. METHODS: We used nationally representative specimens from the Biobank of Statistics Canada's Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) as well as residual specimens from Ontario collected between 2009-2014 to estimate population immunity across age-groups and geography, and identify any groups at increased risk of varicella infection. RESULTS: The weighted proportion of specimens with antibody levels above the threshold of protection was 93.6% (95% CI: 92.4, 95.0). Protection was lowest among those aged 3-5 years (54.3%; 95% CI: 47.3, 61.4), but increased with age. Individuals born outside Canada had more than twice the odds of varicella susceptibility than those born in Canada (aOR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.4, 5.0; p = 0.004). There were no differences by sex or geography within Canada, and there were no statistically significant differences when Ontario CHMS sera were compared to Ontario residual sera, apart from in participants aged 12-19 year age-group, for whom the CHMS estimate (91.2%; 95% CI: 86.7, 95.7) was significantly higher (p = 0.03) than that from residual specimens (85.9%, 95% CI: 81.1, 90.8). DISCUSSION: Varicella immunity in Canada is changing. Children appear to have low population immunity, placing them at greater risk of infection and at increased risk of severe disease as they age. Our results underscore the importance of performing periodic serosurveys to monitor further population immunity changes as the proportion of vaccine-eligible birth-cohorts increases, and to continually assess the risk of outbreaks.

Optimal human papillomavirus vaccination strategies in the context of vaccine supply constraints in 100 countries.

Background: Countries are recommended to immunise adolescent girls routinely with one or two doses of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. With most existing vaccine doses absorbed by countries (mostly high-income) with existing HPV vaccination programmes, limited supply has been left for new country introductions until 2022; many of those, low- and middle-income countries with higher mortality. Several vaccination strategies were considered by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization to allow more countries to introduce vaccination despite constrained supplies. Methods: We examined the impact of nine strategies for allocating limited vaccine doses to 100 pre-introduction countries from 2020 to 2030. Two algorithms were used to optimise the total number of cancer deaths that can be averted worldwide by a limited number of doses (knapsack and decreasing order of country-specific mortality rates), and an unoptimised algorithm (decreasing order of Human Development Index) were used. Findings: Routinely vaccinating 14-year-old girls with either one or two doses and switching to a routine 9-year-old programme when supply is no longer constrained could prevent the most cervical cancer deaths, regardless of allocation algorithm. The unoptimised allocation averts fewer deaths because it allocates first to higher-income countries, usually with lower cervical cancer mortality. Interpretation: To optimise the deaths averted through vaccination when supply is limited, it is important to prioritise high-burden countries and vaccinating older girls first. Funding: WHO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Efficacy and immunogenicity of a single dose of human papillomavirus vaccine compared to multidose vaccination regimens or no vaccination: An updated systematic review of evidence from clinical trials.

Objectives: This study systematically reviewed the published literature from clinical trials on the efficacy and immunogenicity of single-dose HPV vaccination compared to multidose schedules or no HPV vaccination. Methods: Four databases were searched for relevant articles published from Jan-1999 to Feb-2023. Articles were assessed for eligibility for inclusion using pre-defined criteria. Relevant data were extracted from eligible articles and a descriptive quality assessment was performed for each study. A narrative data synthesis was conducted, examining HPV infection, other clinical outcomes and immunogenicity responses by dose schedule. Results: Fifteen articles reporting data from six studies (all in healthy young females) were included. One article was included from each of three studies that prospectively randomised participants to receive a single HPV vaccine dose versus one or more comparator schedule(s). The other 12 articles reported data from three studies that randomised participants to receive multidose HPV vaccine (or control vaccine) schedules; in those studies, some participants failed to complete their allocated schedule, and evaluations were conducted to compare participants who actually received one, two or three doses. Across all efficacy studies, the incidence or prevalence of HPV16/18 infection was very low among HPV-vaccinated participants, regardless of the number of doses received; with no evidence for a difference between dose groups. In immunogenicity studies, HPV16/18 antibody seropositivity rates were high among all HPV-vaccinated participants. Antibody levels were significantly lower with one dose compared to two or three doses, but levels with one dose were stable and sustained to 11 years post-vaccination. Conclusions: Results from this review support recent World Health Organization recommendations allowing either one- or two-dose HPV vaccination in healthy young females. Longer-term efficacy and immunogenicity data from ongoing studies are awaited. Randomised trials of single-dose HPV-vaccination are urgently needed in other populations, e.g. boys, older females and people with HIV.

Association of naturally acquired type-specific HPV antibodies and subsequent HPV re-detection: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the role of naturally acquired (i.e., infection-induced) human papillomavirus (HPV) antibodies against reinfection is important given the high incidence of this sexually transmitted infection. However, the protective effect of naturally acquired antibodies in terms of the level of protection, duration, and differential effect by sex remains incompletely understood. We conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis to (1) strengthen the evidence on the association between HPV antibodies acquired through past infection and subsequent type-specific HPV detection, (2) investigate the potential influence of type-specific HPV antibody levels, and (3) assess differential effects by HIV status. METHODS: We searched Embase and Medline databases to identify studies which prospectively assessed the risk of type-specific HPV detection by baseline homologous HPV serostatus among unvaccinated individuals. Random-effect models were used to pool the measures of association of naturally acquired HPV antibodies against subsequent incident detection and persistent HPV positivity. Sources of heterogeneity for each type were assessed through subgroup analyses stratified by sex, anatomical site of infection, male sexual orientation, age group, and length of follow-up period. Evidence of a dose-response relationship of the association between levels of baseline HPV antibodies and type-specific HPV detection was assessed. Finally, we pooled estimates from publications reporting associations between HPV serostatus and type-specific HPV detection by baseline HIV status. RESULTS: We identified 26 publications (16 independent studies, with 62,363 participants) reporting associations between baseline HPV serostatus and incident HPV detection, mainly for HPV-16 and HPV-18, the most detected HPV type. We found evidence of protective effects of baseline HPV seropositivity and subsequent detection of HPV DNA (0.70, 95% CI 0.61-0.80, NE = 11) and persistent HPV positivity (0.65, 95% CI 0.42-1.01, NE = 5) mainly for HPV-16 among females, but not among males, nor for HPV-18. Estimates from 8 studies suggested a negative dose-response relationship between HPV antibody level and subsequent detection among females. Finally, we did not observe any differential effect by baseline HIV status due to the limited number of studies available. CONCLUSION: We did not find evidence that naturally acquired HPV antibodies protect against subsequent HPV positivity in males and provide only modest protection among females for HPV-16. One potential limitation to the interpretation of these findings is potential misclassification biases due to different causes.

Impact of a vaccine passport on first-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine coverage by age and area-level social determinants of health in the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, all provinces implemented vaccine passports in 2021 to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in non-essential indoor spaces and increase vaccine uptake (policies active September 2021-March 2022 in Quebec and Ontario). We sought to evaluate the impact of vaccine passport policies on first-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccination coverage by age, and area-level income and proportion of racialized residents. METHODS: We performed interrupted time series analyses using data from Quebec's and Ontario's vaccine registries linked to census information (population of 20.5 million people aged ≥ 12 yr; unit of analysis: dissemination area). We fit negative binomial regressions to first-dose vaccinations, using natural splines adjusting for baseline vaccination coverage (start: July 2021; end: October 2021 for Quebec, November 2021 for Ontario). We obtained counterfactual vaccination rates and coverage, and estimated the absolute and relative impacts of vaccine passports. RESULTS: In both provinces, first-dose vaccination coverage before the announcement of vaccine passports was 82% (age ≥ 12 yr). The announcement resulted in estimated increases in coverage of 0.9 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.4-1.2) in Quebec and 0.7 percentage points (95% CI 0.5-0.8) in Ontario. This corresponds to 23% (95% CI 10%-36%) and 19% (95% CI 15%-22%) more vaccinations over 11 weeks. The impact was larger among people aged 12-39 years. Despite lower coverage in lower-income and more-racialized areas, there was little variability in the absolute impact by area-level income or proportion racialized in either province. INTERPRETATION: In the context of high vaccine coverage across 2 provinces, the announcement of vaccine passports had a small impact on first-dose coverage, with little impact on reducing economic and racial inequities in vaccine coverage. Findings suggest that other policies are needed to improve vaccination coverage among lower-income and racialized neighbourhoods and communities.

Potential population-level effectiveness of one-dose HPV vaccination in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Given the accumulating evidence that one-dose vaccination could provide high and sustained protection against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases, we examined the population-level effectiveness and efficiency of one-dose HPV vaccination of girls compared with two-dose vaccination, using mathematical modelling. METHODS: In this mathematical modelling study, we used HPV-ADVISE LMIC, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model independently calibrated to four epidemiologically diverse low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; India, Nigeria, Uganda, and Viet Nam). We parameterised and calibrated the model using sexual behaviour and epidemiological data identified from international population-based datasets and the literature. All base-case vaccination scenarios start in 2023 with the nonavalent vaccine and assumed 80% vaccination coverage with one or two doses. We assumed that two doses of vaccine provide 100% efficacy against vaccine-type infections and a lifelong duration of protection. We examined a non-inferior vaccination scenario for one dose compared with two doses, pessimistic scenarios of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 20 or 30 years), and the effectiveness of a mitigation scenario in which schedules would switch from one dose to two doses. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage. We used three outcomes: the relative reduction in cervical cancer incidence, the number of cervical cancers averted, and the number of vaccine doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer. FINDINGS: Assuming non-inferior vaccine characteristics for one dose compared with two doses, the model projections show that two-dose or one-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years (with a multi-age cohort vaccination of girls aged 10-14 years) would avert 12·0 million (80% UI 9·5-14·5) cervical cancers in India, 4·7 million (3·4-5·8) in Nigeria, 2·3 million (1·9-2·6) in Uganda, and 0·4 million (0·2-0·5) in Viet Nam over 100 years. Under pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 30 years), one-dose routine vaccination would avert 69% (61-80) to 94% (92-96) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination. However, when assuming a duration of protection of 20 years, one-dose routine vaccination would avert substantially fewer cervical cancers (ie, 35% [26-44] to 69% [65-71] of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). A switch from one-dose to two-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, with a one-dose catch-up of girls aged 10-14 years, 5 years after the start of the vaccination programme, could mitigate potential losses in cervical cancer prevention from a short one-dose duration of protection (averting 92% [83-98] to 99% [97-100]) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). One-dose routine vaccination would result in fewer doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer than two-dose routine vaccination, even if the duration of protection is as low as 20 years. Finally, for countries with two-dose routine vaccination, adding one-dose multi-age cohort vaccination in the first year would provide similar benefits as a two-dose multi-age cohort vaccination, and would be more efficient even under the pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy or duration of protection. INTERPRETATION: One-dose routine vaccination could avert most of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose vaccination while being more efficient, provided the duration of one-dose protection is greater than 20-30 years (depending on the LMIC). The doses saved by introducing one-dose routine vaccination could offer the opportunity to vaccinate girls before they age out of the vaccination window of 9-14 years and, potentially, to vaccinate boys or older age groups. FUNDING: Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme. METHODS: Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021-2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme. RESULTS: Over the years 2021-2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1-130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1-161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6-169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14-3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75-85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection. CONCLUSIONS: Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.

Effectiveness of previous infection-induced and vaccine-induced protection against hospitalisation due to omicron BA subvariants in older adults: a test-negative, case-control study in Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Older adults (aged ≥60 years) were prioritised for COVID-19 booster vaccination due to severe outcome risk, but the risk for this group is also affected by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. We estimated vaccine effectiveness against omicron-associated hospitalisation in older adults by previously documented infection, time since last immunological event, and age group. METHODS: This was a population-based test-negative case-control study done in Quebec, Canada, during BA.1 dominant (December, 2021, to March, 2022), BA.2 dominant (April to June, 2022), and BA.4/5 dominant (July to November, 2022) periods using provincial laboratory, immunisation, hospitalisation, and chronic disease surveillance databases. We included older adults (aged ≥60 years) with symptoms associated with COVID-19 who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 in acute-care hospitals. Cases were defined as patients who were hospitalised for COVID-19 within 14 days after testing positive; controls were patients who tested negative. Analyses spanned 3-14 months after last vaccine dose or previous infection. Logistic regression models compared COVID-19 hospitalisation risk by mRNA vaccine dose and previous infection versus unvaccinated and infection-naive participants. FINDINGS: Between Dec 26, 2021, and Nov 5, 2022, we included 174 819 specimens (82 870 [47·4%] from men and 91 949 [52·6%] from women; from 8455 cases and 166 364 controls), taken from 2951 cases and 48 724 controls in the BA.1 period; 1897 cases and 41 702 controls in the BA.2 period; and 3607 cases and 75 938 controls in the BA.4/5 period. In participants who were infection naive, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation improved with dose number, consistent with a shorter median time since last dose, but decreased with more recent omicron subvariants. Four-dose vaccine effectiveness was 96% (95% CI 93-98) during the BA.1 period, 84% (81-87) during the BA.2 period, and 68% (63-72) during the BA.4/5 period. Regardless of dose number (two to five doses) or timing since previous infection, hybrid protection was more than 90%, persisted for at least 6-8 months, and did not decline with age. INTERPRETATION: Older adults with both previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and two or more vaccine doses appear to be well protected for a prolonged period against hospitalisation due to omicron subvariants, including BA.4/5. Ensuring that older adults who are infection naive remain up to date with vaccination might reduce COVID-19 hospitalisations most efficiently. FUNDING: Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux du Québec. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Regional and country-level trends in cervical cancer screening coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic analysis of population-based surveys (2000-2020).

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the highest cervical cancer (CC) burden globally-worsened by its HIV epidemics. In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) introduced a CC elimination strategy with goals for vaccination, screening, and treatment. To benchmark progress, we examined temporal trends in screening coverage, percent screened at least twice by the age of 45, screening coverage among women living with HIV (WLHIV), and pre-cancer treatment coverage in SSA. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic analysis of cross-sectional population-based surveys. It included 52 surveys from 28 countries (2000 to 2020) with information on CC screening among women aged 25 to 49 years (N = 151,338 women). We estimated lifetime and past 3-year screening coverage by age, year, country, and HIV serostatus using a Bayesian multilevel model. Post-stratification and imputations were done to obtain aggregate national, regional, and SSA-level estimates. To measure re-screening by age 45, a life table model was developed. Finally, self-reported pre-cancer treatment coverage was pooled across surveys using a Bayesian meta-analysis. Overall, an estimated 14% (95% credible intervals [95% CrI]: 11% to 21%) of women aged 30 to 49 years had ever been screened for CC in 2020, with important regional and country-level differences. In Eastern and Western/Central Africa, regional screening coverages remained constant from 2000 to 2020 and WLHIV had greater odds of being screened compared to women without HIV. In Southern Africa, however, screening coverages increased and WLHIV had equal odds of screening. Notably this region was found to have higher screening coverage in comparison to other African regions. Rescreening rates were high among women who have already been screened; however, it was estimated that only 12% (95% CrI: 10% to 18%) of women had been screened twice or more by age 45 in 2020. Finally, treatment coverage among 4 countries with data was 84% (95% CrI: 70% to 95%). Limitations of our analyses include the paucity of data on screening modality and the few countries that had multiple surveys. CONCLUSION: Overall, CC screening coverage remains sub-optimal and did not improve much over the last 2 decades, outside of Southern Africa. Action is needed to increase screening coverage if CC elimination is to be achieved.

Protection against omicron (B.1.1.529) BA.2 reinfection conferred by primary omicron BA.1 or pre-omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection among health-care workers with and without mRNA vaccination: a test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on vaccine-induced or infection-induced (hybrid or natural) immunity against omicron (B.1.1.529) subvariant BA.2, particularly in comparing the effects of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection with the same or different genetic lineage. We aimed to estimate the protection against omicron BA.2 associated with previous primary infection with omicron BA.1 or pre-omicron SARS-CoV-2, among health-care workers with and without mRNA vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a test-negative case-control study among health-care workers aged 18 years or older who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 in Quebec, Canada, between March 27 and June 4, 2022, when BA.2 was the predominant variant and was presumptively diagnosed with a positive test result. We identified cases (positive test during study period) and controls (negative test during study period) using the provincial laboratory database that records all nucleic acid amplification testing for SARS-CoV-2 in Quebec, and used the provincial immunisation registry to determine vaccination status. Logistic regression models compared the likelihood of BA.2 infection or reinfection (second positive test ≥30 days after primary infection) among health-care workers who had previous primary infection and none to three mRNA vaccine doses versus unvaccinated health-care workers with no primary infection. FINDINGS: 258 007 SARS-CoV-2 tests were done during the study period. Among those with a valid result and that met the inclusion criteria, there were 37 732 presumed BA.2 cases (2521 [6·7%] reinfections following pre-omicron primary infection and 659 [1·7%] reinfections following BA.1 primary infection) and 73 507 controls (7360 [10·0%] had pre-omicron primary infection and 12 315 [16·8%] had BA.1 primary infection). Pre-omicron primary infection was associated with a 38% (95% CI 19-53) reduction in BA.2 infection risk, with higher BA.2 protection among those who had also received one (56%, 95% CI 47-63), two (69%, 64-73), or three (70%, 66-74) mRNA vaccine doses. Omicron BA.1 primary infection was associated with greater protection against BA.2 infection (risk reduction of 72%, 95% CI 65-78), and protection was increased further among those who had received two doses of mRNA vaccine (96%, 95-96), but was not improved with a third dose (96%, 95-97). INTERPRETATION: Health-care workers who had received two doses of mRNA vaccine and had previous BA.1 infection were subsequently well protected for a prolonged period against BA.2 reinfection, with a third vaccine dose conferring no improvement to that hybrid protection. If this protection also pertains to future variants, there might be limited benefit from additional vaccine doses for people with hybrid immunity, depending on timing and variant. FUNDING: Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux du Québec.

Potential benefit of extended dose schedules of human papillomavirus vaccination in the context of scarce resources and COVID-19 disruptions in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recommended that an extended interval of 3-5 years between the two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could be considered to alleviate vaccine supply shortages. However, three concerns have limited the introduction of extended schedules: girls could be infected between the two doses, the vaccination coverage for the second dose could be lower at ages 13-14 years than at ages 9-10 years, and identifying girls vaccinated with a first dose to give them the second dose could be difficult. Using mathematical modelling, we examined the potential effect of these concerns on the population-level impact and efficiency of extended dose HPV vaccination schedules. METHODS: We used HPV-ADVISE, an individual-based, transmission-dynamic model of multitype HPV infection and disease, calibrated to country-specific data for four low-income and middle-income countries (India, Viet Nam, Uganda, and Nigeria). For the extended dose scenarios, we varied the vaccination coverage of the second dose among girls previously vaccinated, the one-dose vaccine efficacy, and the one-dose vaccine duration of protection. We also examined a strategy in which girls aged 14 years were vaccinated irrespective of their previous vaccination status. We used a scenario of girls-only two-dose vaccination at age 9 years (vaccine=9 valent, vaccine-type efficacy=100%, duration of protection=lifetime, and coverage=80%) as our comparator. We estimated two outcomes: the relative reduction in the age-standardised cervical cancer incidence (population-level impact) and the number of cervical cancers averted per 100 000 doses (efficiency). FINDINGS: Our model projected substantial reductions in cervical cancer incidence over 100 years with the two-dose schedule (79-86% depending on the country), compared with no vaccination. Projections for the 5-year extended schedule, in which the second dose is given only to girls previously vaccinated at age 9 years, were similar to the current two-dose schedule, unless vaccination coverage of the second dose is very low (reductions in cervical cancer incidence of 71-78% assuming 30% coverage at age 14 years among girls vaccinated at age 9 years). However, when the dose at age 14 years is given to girls irrespective of vaccination status and assuming high vaccination coverage, the model projected a substantially greater reduction in cervical cancer incidence compared with the current two-dose schedule (reductions in cervical cancer incidence of 86-93% assuming 70% coverage at age 14 years, irrespective of vaccination status). Efficiency of the extended schedule was greater than the two-dose schedule, even with a drop in vaccination coverage. INTERPRETATION: The three concerns are unlikely to have a substantial effect on the population-level impact of extended dose schedules. Hence, extended dose schedules will likely provide similar cervical cancer reductions as two-dose schedules, while reducing the number of doses required in the short-term, providing a more efficient use of scarce resources, and offering a 5-year time window to reassess the necessity of the second dose. FUNDING: WHO, Canadian Institute of Health Research Foundation, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the effect of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in South Africa: Comparative modelling of the impact of vaccination and screening.

Background: In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched its initiative to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To inform global efforts for countries with high HIV and cervical cancer burden, we assessed the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening and treatment in South Africa, on cervical cancer and the potential for achieving elimination before 2120, considering faster HPV disease progression and higher cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV(WLHIV) and HIV interventions. Methods: Three independent transmission-dynamic models simulating HIV and HPV infections and disease progression were used to predict the impact on cervical cancer incidence of three scenarios for all women: 1) girls' vaccination (9-14 years old), 2) girls' vaccination plus 1 lifetime cervical screen (at 35 years), and 3) girls' vaccination plus 2 lifetime cervical screens (at 35 and 45 years) and three enhanced scenarios for WLHIV: 4) vaccination of young WLHIV aged 15-24 years, 5) three-yearly cervical screening of WLHIV aged 15-49 years, or 6) both. Vaccination assumed 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection with the nonavalent vaccine (against HPV-16/18/31/33/45/52/58). Cervical cancer screening assumed HPV testing with uptake increasing from 45% (2023), 70% (2030) to 90% (2045+). We also assumed that UNAIDS 90-90-90 HIV treatment and 70% male circumcision targets are reached by 2030. We examined three elimination thresholds: age-standardised cervical cancer incidence rates below 4 or 10 per 100,000 women-years, and >85% reduction in cervical cancer incidence rate. We conducted sensitivity analyses and presented the median age-standardised predictions of outcomes of the three models (minimum-maximum across models). Findings: Girls' vaccination could reduce age-standardised cervical cancer incidence from a median of 47.6 (40.9-79.2) in 2020 to 4.5 (3.2-6.3) per 100,000 women-years by 2120, averting on average ∼4% and ∼46% of age-standardised cumulative cervical cancer cases over 25 and 100 years, respectively, compared to the basecase. Adding 2 lifetime screens helped achieve elimination over the century among all women (2120 cervical cancer incidence: 3.6 (1.9-3.6) per 100,000 women-years), but not among WLHIV (10.8 (5.3-11.6)), and averted more cumulative cancer cases overall (∼45% over 25 years and ∼61% over 100 years compared to basecase) than girls' vaccination alone. Adding three-yearly cervical screening among WLHIV (to girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens) further reduced age-standardised cervical cancer incidence to 3.3 (1.8-3.6) per 100,000 women-years overall and to 5.2 (3.9-8.5) among WLHIV by 2120 and averted on average 12-13% additional cumulative cancer cases among all women and 21-24% among WLHIV than girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens over 25 years or longer. Long-term vaccine protection and using the nonavalent vaccine was required for elimination. Interpretation: High HPV vaccination coverage of girls and 2 lifetime cervical screens could eliminate cervical cancer among women overall in South Africa by the end of the century and substantially decrease cases among all women and WLHIV over the short and medium term. Cervical cancer elimination in WLHIV would likely require enhanced prevention strategies for WLHIV. Screening of WLHIV remains an important strategy to reduce incidence and alleviate disparities in cervical cancer burden between women with and without HIV, despite HIV interventions scale-up. Funding: World Health Organization. National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, UK Medical Research Council. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development research. Cancer Association of South Africa. Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé research.

Estimated Protection of Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection Against Reinfection With the Omicron Variant Among Messenger RNA-Vaccinated and Nonvaccinated Individuals in Quebec, Canada.

Importance: The Omicron variant is phylogenetically and antigenically distinct from earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants and the original vaccine strain. Protection conferred by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection against Omicron reinfection, with and without vaccination, requires quantification. Objective: To estimate the protection against Omicron reinfection and hospitalization conferred by prior heterologous non-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or up to 3 doses of an ancestral, Wuhan-like messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. Design, Setting, and Participants: This test-negative, population-based case-control study was conducted between December 26, 2021, and March 12, 2022, and included community-dwelling individuals aged 12 years or older who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the province of Quebec, Canada. Exposures: Prior laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with or without mRNA vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and associated hospitalization, presumed to be associated with the Omicron variant according to genomic surveillance. The odds of prior infection with or without vaccination were compared for case participants with Omicron infection and associated hospitalizations vs test-negative control participants. Estimated protection was derived as 1 - the odds ratio, adjusted for age, sex, testing indication, and epidemiologic week. Analyses were stratified by severity and time since last non-Omicron infection or vaccine dose. Results: This study included 696 439 individuals (224 007 case participants and 472 432 control participants); 62.2% and 63.9% were female and 87.4% and 75.5% were aged 18 to 69 years, respectively. Prior non-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected for 9505 case participants (4.2%) and 29 712 control participants (6.3%). Among nonvaccinated individuals, prior non-Omicron infection was associated with a 44% reduction (95% CI, 38%-48%) in Omicron reinfection risk, which decreased from 66% (95% CI, 57%-73%) at 3 to 5 months to 35% (95% CI, 21%-47%) at 9 to 11 months postinfection and was below 30% thereafter. The more severe the prior infection, the greater the risk reduction. Estimated protection (95% CI) against Omicron infection was consistently significantly higher among vaccinated individuals with prior infection compared with vaccinated infection-naive individuals, with 65% (63%-67%) vs 20% (16%-24%) for 1 dose, 68% (67%-70%) vs 42% (41%-44%) for 2 doses, and 83% (81%-84%) vs 73% (72%-73%) for 3 doses. For individuals with prior infection, estimated protection (95% CI) against Omicron-associated hospitalization was 81% (66%-89%) and increased to 86% (77%-99%) with 1, 94% (91%-96%) with 2, and 97% (94%-99%) with 3 mRNA vaccine doses, without signs of waning. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that vaccination with 2 or 3 mRNA vaccine doses among individuals with prior heterologous SARS-CoV-2 infection provided the greatest protection against Omicron-associated hospitalization. In the context of program goals to prevent severe outcomes and preserve health care system capacity, a third mRNA vaccine dose may add limited protection in twice-vaccinated individuals with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Immunogenicity, safety, and efficacy of the HPV vaccines among people living with HIV: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Vaccines have been demonstrated to protect against high-risk human papillomavirus infection (HPV), including HPV-16/18, and cervical lesions among HIV negative women. However, their efficacy remains uncertain for people living with HIV (PLHIV).We systematically reviewed available evidence on HPV vaccine on immunological, virological, or other biological outcomes in PLHIV. Methods: We searched five electronic databases (PubMed, Medline and Embase, clinicaltrials.gov and the WHO clinical trial database) for longitudinal prospective studies reporting immunogenicity, virological, cytological, histological, clinical or safety endpoints following prophylactic HPV vaccination among PLHIV. We included studies published by February 11th, 2021. We summarized results, assessed study quality, and conducted meta-analysis and subgroup analyses, where possible. Findings: We identified 43 publications stemming from 18 independent studies (Ns =18), evaluating the quadrivalent (Ns =15), bivalent (Ns =4) and nonavalent (Ns =1) vaccines. A high proportion seroconverted for the HPV vaccine types. Pooled proportion seropositive by 28 weeks following 3 doses with the bivalent, quadrivalent, and nonavalent vaccines were 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.00, Ns =1), 0.99 (0.98-1.00, Ns =9), and 1.00 (0.99-1.00, Ns =1) for HPV-16 and 0.99 (0.96-1.00, Ns =1), 0.94 (0.91-0.96, Ns =9), and 1.00 (0.99-1.00, Ns =1) for HPV-18, respectively. Seropositivity remained high among people who received 3 doses despite some declines in antibody titers and lower seropositivity over time, especially for HPV-18, for the quadrivalent than the bivalent vaccine, and for HIV positive than negative individuals. Seropositivity for HPV-18 at 29-99 weeks among PLHIV was 0.72 (0.66-0.79, Ns =8) and 0.96 (0.92-0.99, Ns =2) after 3 doses of the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccine, respectively and 0.94 (0.90-0.98, Ns =3) among HIV-negative historical controls. Evidence suggests that the seropositivity after vaccination declines over time but it can lasts at least 2-4 years. The vaccines were deemed safe among PLHIV with few serious adverse events. Evidence of HPV vaccine efficacy against acquisition of HPV infection and/or associated disease from the eight trials available was inconclusive due to the low quality. Interpretation: PLHIV have a robust and safe immune response to HPV vaccination. Antibody titers and seropositivity rates decline over time but remain high. The lack of a formal correlate of protection and efficacy results preclude definitive conclusions on the clinical benefits. Nevertheless, given the burden of HPV disease in PLHIV, although the protection may be shorter or less robust against HPV-18, the robust immune response suggests that PLHIV may benefit from receiving HPV vaccination after acquiring HIV. Better quality studies are needed to demonstrate the clinical efficacy among PLHIV. Funding: World Health Organization. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, UK Medical Research Council (MRC).

Human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness by number of doses: Updated systematic review of data from national immunization programs.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines were first licensed as a three-dose series. Two doses are now widely recommended in some age groups; there are data suggesting high efficacy with one dose. We updated a systematic literature review of HPV vaccine effectiveness by number of doses in observational studies. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase databases from January 1, 2007, through September 29, 2021. Data were extracted and summarized in a narrative synthesis. We also conducted quality assessments for bias due to selection, information, and confounding. RESULTS: Overall, 35 studies were included; all except one were conducted within the context of a recommended three-dose schedule. Evaluations were in countries that used bivalent HPV vaccine (seven), quadrivalent HPV vaccine (27) or both (one). Nine evaluated effectiveness against HPV infection, ten anogenital warts, and 16 cervical abnormalities. All studies were judged to have moderate or serious risk of bias. The biases rated as serious would likely result in lower effectiveness with fewer doses. Investigators attempted to control for or stratify by potentially important variables, such as age at vaccination. Eight studies evaluated impact of buffer periods (lag time) for case counting and 10 evaluated different intervals between doses for two-dose vaccine recipients. Studies that stratified by vaccination age found higher effectiveness with younger age at vaccination, although differences were not all formally tested. Most studies found highest estimates of effectiveness with three doses; significant effectiveness was found among 28/29 studies that evaluated three doses, 19/29 that evaluated two doses, and 18/30 that evaluated one dose. Some studies that adjusted or stratified analyses by age at vaccination found similar effectiveness with three, two and one doses. CONCLUSION: Observational studies of HPV vaccine effectiveness have many biases. Studies examining persons vaccinated prior to sexual activity and using methods to reduce sources of bias are needed for valid effectiveness estimates.

Time trends in social contacts before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: the CONNECT study.

BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries, including Canada, have adopted unprecedented physical distancing measures such as closure of schools and non-essential businesses, and restrictions on gatherings and household visits. We described time trends in social contacts for the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in Quebec, Canada. METHODS: CONNECT is a population-based study of social contacts conducted shortly before (2018/2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020 - February 2021), using the same methodology for both periods. We recruited participants by random digit dialing and collected data by self-administered web-based questionnaires. Questionnaires documented socio-demographic characteristics and social contacts for two assigned days. A contact was defined as a two-way conversation at a distance ≤ 2 m or as a physical contact, irrespective of masking. We used weighted generalized linear models with a Poisson distribution and robust variance (taking possible overdispersion into account) to compare the mean number of social contacts over time and by socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 1291 and 5516 Quebecers completed the study before and during the pandemic, respectively. Contacts significantly decreased from a mean of 8 contacts/day prior to the pandemic to 3 contacts/day during the spring 2020 lockdown. Contacts remained lower than the pre-COVID period thereafter (lowest = 3 contacts/day during the Christmas 2020/2021 holidays, highest = 5 in September 2020). Contacts at work, during leisure activities/in other locations, and at home with visitors showed the greatest decreases since the beginning of the pandemic. All sociodemographic subgroups showed significant decreases of contacts since the beginning of the pandemic. The mixing matrices illustrated the impact of public health measures (e.g. school closure, gathering restrictions) with fewer contacts between children/teenagers and fewer contacts outside of the three main diagonals of contacts between same-age partners/siblings and between children and their parents. CONCLUSION: Physical distancing measures in Quebec significantly decreased social contacts, which most likely mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

Now or later: Health impacts of delaying single-dose HPV vaccine implementation in a high-burden setting.

We aimed to quantify the health impact of immediate introduction of a single-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program in a high-burden setting, as waiting until forthcoming trials are completed to implement single-dose HPV vaccination may result in health losses, particularly for cohorts who would age-out of vaccination eligibility. Two mathematical models fitted to a high-burden setting projected cervical cancer incidence rates associated with (a) immediate implementation of one-dose HPV vaccination vs (b) waiting 5 years for evidence from randomized trials to determine if one- or two-doses should be implemented. We conducted analyses assuming a single dose was either noninferior or inferior to two doses. The models projected that immediate implementation of a noninferior single-dose vaccine led to a 7.2% to 9.6% increase in cancers averted between 2021 to 2120, compared to waiting 5 years. Health benefits remained greater with immediate implementation despite an inferior single-dose efficacy (80%), but revaccination of one-dose recipients became more important assuming vaccine waning. Under most circumstances, immediate vaccination avoided health losses for those aging out of vaccine eligibility, leading to greater health benefits than waiting for more information in 5 years.

Population immunity to measles in Canada using Canadian Health Measures survey data - A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study.

We aimed to determine population immunity to measles in Canada, and to assess the risk of future outbreaks. We tested 11,176 sera from Cycles 2 (2009-2011) and 3 (2011-2013) cohorts from the biobank of Statistics Canada's Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) using the BioPlex 2220 MMRV IgG assay. We then tested all BioPlex negative and equivocal samples using a more sensitive Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT). We determined the weighted proportion of positive, equivocal, and negative samples by age, sex, region and whether individuals were born in Canada. We found that 90.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.2, 91.9) of samples were positive, 4.5% (95% CI: 3.4, 5.5) were equivocal and 5.5% (95% CI: 4.3, 6.7) were negative. Individuals in the 12-19 year age band had the lowest proportion positive at 78.7% (95% CI: 74.2, 83.2) and the highest proportion of positive samples was found in those 60-79 years (99.6%, 95% CI: 99.3, 99.9). Seropositivity was consistently <90% across a broad range of pediatric and adult age bands (6-39 years). We found that a slightly higher proportion of females were positive (91.9%, 95% CI: 90.1, 93.6) compared to males (88.3%, 95% CI: 85.8, 90.7). When taking into account interaction between age and born in Canada status, we found individuals born in Canada aged 19 and under were less susceptible (OR = 0.6 (95% CI: 0.4, 0.95)) compared to those born outside Canada whereas, those aged 20 and over were more susceptible (OR = 1.7 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.8)). Our findings indicate that measles immunity in Canada is below the 95% immunity threshold required to sustain measles elimination, underscoring the importance of maintaining high vaccine coverage to prevent future measles outbreaks and sustain Canada's elimination status.

Time trends in social contacts of individuals according to comorbidity and vaccination status, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: As we are confronted with more transmissible/severe variants with immune escape and the waning of vaccine efficacy, it is particularly relevant to understand how the social contacts of individuals at greater risk of COVID-19 complications evolved over time. We described time trends in social contacts of individuals according to comorbidity and vaccination status before and during the first three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Quebec, Canada. METHODS: We used data from CONNECT, a repeated cross-sectional population-based survey of social contacts conducted before (2018/2019) and during the pandemic (April 2020 to July 2021). We recruited non-institutionalized adults from Quebec, Canada, by random digit dialling. We used a self-administered web-based questionnaire to measure the number of social contacts of participants (two-way conversation at a distance ≤2 m or a physical contact, irrespective of masking). We compared the mean number of contacts/day according to the comorbidity status of participants (pre-existing medical conditions with symptoms/medication in the past 12 months) and 1-dose vaccination status during the third wave. All analyses were performed using weighted generalized linear models with a Poisson distribution and robust variance. RESULTS: A total of 1441 and 5185 participants with and without comorbidities, respectively, were included in the analyses. Contacts significantly decreased from a mean of 6.1 (95%CI 4.9-7.3) before the pandemic to 3.2 (95%CI 2.5-3.9) during the first wave among individuals with comorbidities and from 8.1 (95%CI 7.3-9.0) to 2.7 (95%CI 2.2-3.2) among individuals without comorbidities. Individuals with comorbidities maintained fewer contacts than those without comorbidities in the second wave, with a significant difference before the Christmas 2020/2021 holidays (2.9 (95%CI 2.5-3.2) vs 3.9 (95%CI 3.5-4.3); P<0.001). During the third wave, contacts were similar for individuals with (4.1, 95%CI 3.4-4.7) and without comorbidities (4.5, 95%CI 4.1-4.9; P=0.27). This could be partly explained by individuals with comorbidities vaccinated with their first dose who increased their contacts to the level of those without comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: It will be important to closely monitor COVID-19-related outcomes and social contacts by comorbidity and vaccination status to inform targeted or population-based interventions (e.g., booster doses of the vaccine).