Enhancing stroke risk prediction in patients with transient ischemic attack: insights from a prospective cohort study implementing fast-track care.

Background and aims: Fast-track care have been proved to reduce the short-term risk of stroke after transient ischemic attack (TIA). We aimed to investigate stroke risk and to characterize short- and long-term stroke predictors in a large cohort of TIA patients undergoing fast-track management. Methods: Prospective study, enrolling consecutive TIA patients admitted to a Northern Italy emergency department from August 2010 to December 2017. All patients underwent fast-track care within 24 h of admission. The primary outcome was defined as the first stroke recurrence at 90 days, 12 and 60 months after TIA. Stroke incidence with 95% confidence interval (CI) at each timepoint was calculated using Poisson regression. Predictors of stroke recurrence were evaluated with Cox regression analysis. The number needed to treat (NNT) of fast-track care in preventing 90-day stroke recurrence in respect to the estimates based on baseline ABCD2 score was also calculated. Results: We enrolled 1,035 patients (54.2% males). Stroke incidence was low throughout the follow-up with rates of 2.2% [95% CI 1.4-3.3%] at 90 days, 2.9% [95% CI 1.9-4.2%] at 12 months and 7.1% [95% CI 5.4-9.0%] at 60 months. Multiple TIA, speech disturbances and presence of ischemic lesion at neuroimaging predicted stroke recurrence at each timepoint. Male sex and increasing age predicted 90-day and 60-month stroke risk, respectively. Hypertension was associated with higher 12-month and 60-month stroke risk. No specific TIA etiology predicted higher stroke risk throughout the follow-up. The NNT for fast-track care in preventing 90-day stroke was 14.5 [95% CI 11.3-20.4] in the overall cohort and 6.8 [95% CI 4.6-13.5] in patients with baseline ABCD2 of 6 to 7. Conclusion: Our findings support the effectiveness of fast-track care in preventing both short- and long-term stroke recurrence after TIA. Particular effort should be made to identify and monitor patients with baseline predictors of higher stroke risk, which may vary according to follow-up duration.

Evolution of untreated calf deep-vein thrombosis in high risk symptomatic outpatients: the blind, prospective CALTHRO study.

The natural history of calf deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) is still uncertain and it is debated whether it warrants to be diagnosed and treated. We aimed to investigate the complication rate of untreated isolated calf DVT (ICDVT). Symptomatic outpatients were prospectively managed with serial compression ultrasonography (SCUS). Those without proximal DVT and with likely pre-test clinical probability (PCP) or altered D-dimer received immediate subsequent complete examination of calf deep veins (CCUS) by a different operator. The result of CCUS was kept blind both to the managing doctor and the patient and disclosed after three months. Primary outcome was the rate of venous thromboembolism at three months. We examined 431 subjects (196 males; median age 68.0 years) in whom five outcomes were recorded (1.2%; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.4-2.7). If CCUS results had been available, outcomes would have been recorded in 3/424 patients (0.7%; 95% CI: 0.2-2.1) with two events in subjects negative at both serial and complete CUS. ICDVT was diagnosed in 65 subjects (15.3%; 95% CI: 12-19); of whom 59 remained uneventful (one was lost to follow-up). A significant higher rate of outcomes was recorded in subjects with than without ICDVT (5/64; 7.8%; 95% CI: 3-17 vs. 3/351; 0.8%; 95% CI: 0-2; p=0.003). However, after excluding two events picked at serial CUS in subjects with ICDVT, the difference became barely significant (3/64; 4.7%; 95% CI: 1-13; p=0.049). Thrombotic evolution of untreated ICDVT in high-risk subjects may be relevant. Larger studies are needed to address this issue.

D-dimer testing to determine the duration of anticoagulation therapy.

BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of oral anticoagulation in patients with idiopathic venous thromboembolism is uncertain. Testing of D-dimer levels may play a role in the assessment of the need for prolonged anticoagulation. METHODS: We performed D-dimer testing 1 month after the discontinuation of anticoagulation in patients with a first unprovoked proximal deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism who had received a vitamin K antagonist for at least 3 months. Patients with a normal D-dimer level did not resume anticoagulation, whereas those with an abnormal D-dimer level were randomly assigned either to resume or to discontinue treatment. The study outcome was the composite of recurrent venous thromboembolism and major bleeding during an average follow-up of 1.4 years. RESULTS: The D-dimer assay was abnormal in 223 of 608 patients (36.7%). A total of 18 events occurred among the 120 patients who stopped anticoagulation (15.0%), as compared with 3 events among the 103 patients who resumed anticoagulation (2.9%), for an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 14.6; P=0.02). Thromboembolism recurred in 24 of 385 patients with a normal D-dimer level (6.2%). Among patients who stopped anticoagulation, the adjusted hazard ratio for recurrent thromboembolism among those with an abnormal D-dimer level, as compared with those with a normal D-dimer level, was 2.27 (95% CI, 1.15 to 4.46; P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with an abnormal D-dimer level 1 month after the discontinuation of anticoagulation have a significant incidence of recurrent venous thromboembolism, which is reduced by the resumption of anticoagulation. The optimal course of anticoagulation in patients with a normal D-dimer level has not been clearly established. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00264277 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).