Factors Impacting Physician Prognostic Accuracy in Heart Failure Patients With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: A recent study showed that the accuracy of heart failure (HF) cardiologists and family doctors to predict mortality in outpatients with HF proved suboptimal, performing less well than models. OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to evaluate patient and physician factors associated with physician accuracy. METHODS: The authors included outpatients with HF from 11 HF clinics. Family doctors and HF cardiologists estimated patient 1-year mortality. They calculated predicted mortality using the Seattle HF Model and followed patients for 1 year to record mortality (or urgent heart transplant or ventricular assist device implant as mortality-equivalent events). Using multivariable logistic regression, the authors evaluated associations among physician experience and confidence in estimates, duration of patient-physician relationship, patient-physician sex concordance, patient race, and predicted risk, with concordant results between physician and model predictions. RESULTS: Among 1,643 patients, 1-year event rate was 10% (95% CI: 8%-12%). One-half of the estimates showed discrepant results between model and physician predictions, mainly owing to physician risk overestimation. Discrepancies were more frequent with increasing patient risk from 38% in low-risk to ∼75% in high-risk patients. When making predictions on male patients, female HF cardiologists were 26% more likely to have discrepant predictions (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.58-0.94). HF cardiologist estimates in Black patients were 33% more likely to be discrepant (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.45-0.99). Low confidence in predictions was associated with discrepancy. Analyses restricted to high-confidence estimates showed inferior calibration to the model, with risk overestimation across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Discrepant physician and model predictions were more frequent in cases with perceived increased risk. Model predictions outperform physicians even when they are confident in their predictions. (Predicted Prognosis in Heart Failure [INTUITION]; NCT04009798).

Perioperative Factors Associated With Postoperative Delirium in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and serious complication after surgery. Various predisposing factors are associated with POD, but their magnitude and importance using an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis have not been assessed. Objective: To identify perioperative factors associated with POD and assess their relative prognostic value among adults undergoing noncardiac surgery. Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL from inception to May 2020. Study Selection: Studies were included that (1) enrolled adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, (2) assessed perioperative risk factors for POD, and (3) measured the incidence of delirium (measured using a validated approach). Data were analyzed in 2020. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual patient data were pooled from 21 studies and 1-stage meta-analysis was performed using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression after a multivariable imputation via chained equations model to impute missing data. Main Outcomes and Measures: The end point of interest was POD diagnosed up to 10 days after a procedure. A wide range of perioperative risk factors was considered as potentially associated with POD. Results: A total of 192 studies met the eligibility criteria, and IPD were acquired from 21 studies that enrolled 8382 patients. Almost 1 in 5 patients developed POD (18%), and an increased risk of POD was associated with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) status 4 (odds ratio [OR], 2.43; 95% CI, 1.42-4.14), older age (OR for 65-85 years, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.16-3.29; OR for >85 years, 6.24; 95% CI, 4.65-8.37), low body mass index (OR for body mass index <18.5, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.64-3.09), history of delirium (OR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.69-5.66), preoperative cognitive impairment (OR, 3.99; 95% CI, 2.94-5.43), and preoperative C-reactive protein levels (OR for 5-10 mg/dL, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.59-3.50; OR for >10 mg/dL, 3.56; 95% CI, 2.46-5.17). Completing a college degree or higher was associated with a decreased likelihood of developing POD (OR 0.45; 95% CI, 0.28-0.72). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data, several important factors associated with POD were found that may help identify patients at high risk and may have utility in clinical practice to inform patients and caregivers about the expected risk of developing delirium after surgery. Future studies should explore strategies to reduce delirium after surgery.

The design of studies testing the effectiveness of risk-guided care has many challenges: a scoping review addressing key considerations.

OBJECTIVES: Studies evaluating the effectiveness of care based on patients' risk of adverse outcomes (risk-guided care) use a variety of study designs. In this scoping review, using examples, we review characteristics of relevant studies and present key design features to optimize the trustworthiness of results. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched five online databases for studies evaluating the effect of risk-guided care among adults on clinical outcomes, process, or cost. Pairs of reviewers independently performed screening and data abstraction. We descriptively summarized the study design and characteristics. RESULTS: Among 14,561 hits, we identified 116 eligible studies. Study designs included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), post hoc analysis of RCTs, and retrospective or prospective cohort studies. Challenges and sources of bias in the design included limited performance of predictive models, contamination, inadequacy to address the credibility of subgroup effects, absence of differences in care across risk strata, reporting only process measures as opposed to clinical outcomes, and failure to report benefits and harms. CONCLUSION: To assess the benefit of risk-guided care, RCTs provide the most trustworthy evidence. Observational studies offer an alternative but are hampered by confounding and other limitations. Reaching valid conclusions when testing risk-guided care requires addressing the challenges identified in our review.

Predicting 1-Year Mortality in Outpatients With Heart Failure With Reduced Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction: Do Empiric Models Outperform Physician Intuitive Estimates? A Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have demonstrated that physicians often err in estimating patient prognosis. No studies have directly compared physician to model predictive performance in heart failure (HF). We aimed to compare the accuracy of physician versus model predictions of 1-year mortality. METHODS: This multicenter prospective cohort study on 11 HF clinics in 5 provinces in Canada included consecutive consented outpatients with HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (<40%). By collecting clinical data, we calculated predicted 1-year mortality using the Seattle HF Model (SHFM), the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic HF score, and the HF Meta-Score. HF cardiologists and family doctors, blinded to model predictions, estimated patient 1-year mortality. During 1-year follow-up, we recorded the composite end point of mortality, urgent ventricular assist device implant, or heart transplant. We compared physicians and model discrimination (C statistic), calibration (observed versus predicted event rate), and risk reclassification. RESULTS: The study included 1643 patients with ambulatory HF with a mean age of 65 years, 24% female, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 28%. Over 1-year follow-up, 9% had an event. The SHFM had the best discrimination (SHFM C statistic 0.76; HF Meta-Score 0.73; Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure 0.70) and calibration. Physicians' discrimination differed little (0.75 for HF cardiologists and 0.73 for family doctors) but both physician groups substantially overestimated risk by >10% in both low- and high-risk patients (poor calibration). In risk reclassification analysis, among patients without events, the SHFM better classified 51% in comparison to HF cardiologists and 43% in comparison to family doctors. In patients with events, the SHFM erroneously assigned lower risk to 44% in comparison to HF cardiologists and 34% in comparison to family doctors. CONCLUSIONS: Family doctors and HF cardiologists showed adequate risk discrimination, with however substantial overestimation of absolute risk. Predictive models showed higher accuracy. Incorporating models in family and HF cardiology practices may improve patient care and resource use in HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT04009798.

Alterations of pulmonary vascular afterload in exercise-induced pre- and post-capillary pulmonary hypertension.

Exercise imposes increased pulmonary vascular afterload based on rises in pulmonary artery (PA) wedge pressure, declines in PA compliance, and resistance-compliance time. In health, afterload stress stabilizes during steady-state exercise. Our objective was to examine alterations of these exercise-associated stresses in states of pre- and post-capillary pulmonary hypertension (PH). PA hemodynamics were evaluated at rest, 2 and 7 min of steady-state exercise at moderate intensity in patients who exhibited Pre-capillary (n = 22) and post-capillary PH (n = 22). Patients with normal exercise hemodynamics (NOR-HD) (n = 32) were also studied. During exercise in all groups, PA wedge pressure increased at 2 min, with no further change at 7 min. In post-capillary PH and NOR-HD, increases in PA diastolic pressure and diastolic pressure gradient remained stable at 2 and 7 min of exercise, while in pre-capillary PH, both continued to increase at 7 min. The behavior of the diastolic pressure gradient was linearly related to the duration of resistance-compliance time at rest (r2  = 0.843) and exercise (r2  = 0.760). Exercise resistance-compliance time was longer in pre-capillary PH associated with larger increases in diastolic pressure gradient. Conversely, resistance-compliance time was shortest in post-capillary PH compared to pre-capillary PH and NOR-HD and associated with limited increases in exercise diastolic pressure gradient. During steady-state, modest-intensity exercise-specific patterns of pulmonary vascular afterload responses were observed in pre- and post-capillary PH relative to NOR-HD. Longer resistance-compliance time related to greater increases in PA diastolic pressure and diastolic pressure gradients in pre-capillary PH, while shorter resistance-compliance time appeared to limit these increases in post-capillary PH.

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Graft Dysfunction Early After Heart Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a prevailing option for the management of severe early graft dysfunction. This systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aims to evaluate (1) mortality, (2) rates of major complications, (3) prognostic factors, and (4) the effect of different VA-ECMO strategies on outcomes in adult heart transplant (HT) recipients supported with VA-ECMO. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a systematic search and included studies of adults (≥18 years) who received VA-ECMO during their index hospitalization after HT and reported on mortality at any timepoint. We pooled data using random effects models. To identify prognostic factors, we analysed IPD using mixed effects logistic regression. We assessed the certainty in the evidence using the GRADE framework. We included 49 observational studies of 1477 patients who received VA-ECMO after HT, of which 15 studies provided IPD for 448 patients. There were no differences in mortality estimates between IPD and non-IPD studies. The short-term (30-day/in-hospital) mortality estimate was 33% (moderate certainty, 95% confidence interval [CI] 28%-39%) and 1-year mortality estimate 50% (moderate certainty, 95% CI 43%-57%). Recipient age (odds ratio 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04) and prior sternotomy (OR 1.57, 95% CI 0.99-2.49) are associated with increased short-term mortality. There is low certainty evidence that early intraoperative cannulation and peripheral cannulation reduce the risk of short-term death. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of patients who receive VA-ECMO for early graft dysfunction do not survive 30 days or to hospital discharge, and one-half do not survive to 1 year after HT. Improving outcomes will require ongoing research focused on optimizing VA-ECMO strategies and care in the first year after HT.

Increased Mortality in Patients With Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Toronto, Canada.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a reduction in patients seeking timely consultation for illnesses that are not related to COVID-19. Previously, we reported a decline in the number of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic vs that in 2019. We aimed to determine the consequences of these early trends on ADHF-patient morbidity and mortality. Methods: We compared consecutive patients presenting with ADHF to 3 academic medical centres in Toronto, Canada from March 1-September 28, 2020, vs those from the same time period in 2019. We used multivariate logistic regression models to evaluate whether the odds of hospitalization after presenting to the ED, recurrent ED visits or readmission within 30 days, and in-hospital all-cause mortality differed by timeframe. Results: We observed that, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a lower total number of patients presented to the hospital with ADHF, vs that in 2019. Despite this difference, the probability of being admitted to the hospital did not differ for patients seen in 2020 vs 2019. Among ADHF patients admitted to the hospital, however, we observed a significantly higher proportion being admitted to the intensive care unit, and a relative 66% increase in in-hospital mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 era, compared to that in 2019. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that improved messaging may be needed for patients living with chronic health conditions, including HF, during the pandemic, to educate and encourage them to present to hospital services when in need.

Contexte: La maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) s'est traduite par une diminution du nombre de patients demandant des consultations médicales pour des états de santé sans lien avec la COVID-19. Nous avons précédemment décrit une diminution du nombre de consultations aux urgences et d'hospitalisations en raison d'une insuffisance cardiaque aiguë décompensée (ICAD) au cours de la pandémie de COVID-19 en 2020, par rapport à 2019. Nous avons voulu déterminer les conséquences de ces tendances précoces sur la morbidité et la mortalité chez les patients atteints d'ICAD. Méthodologie: Nous avons comparé les données pour les patients consécutifs atteints d'ICAD de trois centres médicaux hospitaliers de Toronto (Canada) traités entre le 1er mars et le 28 septembre 2020 et durant la même période en 2019. À l'aide de modèles de régression logistique multivariée, nous avons évalué les différences entre les probabilités d'hospitalisation après une consultation aux urgences, de consultations récurrentes aux urgences ou de réadmission dans les 30 jours suivant la visite initiale, ainsi que de mortalité hospitalière toutes causes confondues pour les patients vus durant ces deux périodes. Résultats: Durant la pandémie de COVID-19, le nombre total de patients atteints d'ICAD s'étant présentés à l'hôpital a été plus faible que celui relevé pour l'année 2019. Malgré cet écart, la probabilité d'admission à l'hôpital ne différait pas pour les patients vus en 2020 et en 2019. Parmi les patients atteints d'ICAD admis à l'hôpital, nous avons toutefois observé une proportion significativement plus élevée de séjours aux soins intensifs et une hausse relative de 66 % du taux de mortalité hospitalière, en comparant les données de 2020 (pandémie de COVID-19) et celles de 2019. Conclusions: Nos observations indiquent qu'il pourrait être nécessaire d'améliorer la communication avec les patients atteints de problèmes de santé chroniques (y compris l'IC) en situation de pandémie de façon à mieux les informer et à les encourager à consulter les services hospitaliers lorsque nécessaire.

Predictors of 1-year mortality after adult lung transplantation: Systematic review and meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors in lung transplantation are those variables that are associated with transplant outcomes. Knowledge of donor and recipient prognostic variables can aid in the optimal allocation of donor lungs to transplant recipients and can also inform post-operative discussions with patients about prognosis. Current research findings related to prognostic factors in lung transplantation are inconsistent and the relative importance of various factors is unclear. This review aims to provide the best possible estimates of the association between putative prognostic variables and 1-year all-cause mortality in adult lung transplant recipients. METHODS: We searched 5 bibliographic databases for studies assessing the associations between putative predictors (related to lung donors, recipients, or the transplant procedure) and 1-year recipient mortality. We pooled data across studies when justified and utilized GRADE methodology to assess the certainty in the evidence. RESULTS: From 72 eligible studies (2002-2020), there were 34 recipient variables, 4 donor variables, 10 procedural variables, and 7 post-transplant complication variables that were amenable to a meta-analysis. With a high degree of certainty in the evidence only post-transplant need for extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.79-2.04) predicted 1-year mortality. No donor variables appeared to predict transplant outcome with high or even moderate certainty. CONCLUSION: Across the range of contemporary donors and recipients that clinicians accept for lung transplantation, this review, with high certainty, found 1 prognostic factor that predicted 1-year mortality, and 37 additional factors with a moderate degree of certainty. The lack of prognostic significance for some widely accepted factors (e.g., donor smoking, age) likely relates to existing limits in the range of these variables at the time of donor and recipient selection.

Prognostic value of natriuretic peptides in heart failure: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Risk models, informing optimal long-term medical management, seldom use natriuretic peptides (NP) in ascertaining the absolute risk of outcomes for HF patients. Individual studies evaluating the prognostic value of NPs in HF patients have reported varying effects, arriving at best estimates requires a systematic review. We systematically summarized the best evidence regarding the prognostic value of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and NT-proBNP in predicting mortality and hospitalizations in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients. We searched bibliographic databases from 2005 to 2018 and included studies evaluating the association of BNP or NT-proBNP with mortality or hospitalization using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. We pooled hazard ratios using random-effect models, explored heterogeneity using pre-specified subgroup analyses, and evaluated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations and Development Evaluation framework. We identified 67 eligible studies reporting on 76,178 ambulatory HF patients with a median BNP of 407 pg/mL (261-574 pg/mL). Moderate to high-quality evidence showed that a 100-pg/mL increase in BNP was associated with a 14% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22); a 1-log-unit increase was associated with a 51% increased hazard of mortality (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.41-1.61) and 48% increased hazard of mortality or hospitalization (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.29-1.69). With moderate to high certainty, we observed a 14% independent relative increase in mortality, translating to a clinically meaningful increase in absolute risk even for low-risk patients. The observed associations may help in developing more accurate risk models that incorporate NPs and accurately prognosticate HF patients.

Incidence and impact of primary graft dysfunction in adult heart transplant recipients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a leading cause of early mortality after heart transplant (HTx). To identify PGD incidence and impact on mortality, and to elucidate risk factors for PGD, we systematically reviewed studies using the ISHLT 2014 Consensus Report definition and reporting the incidence of PGD in adult HTx recipients. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in January 2020 including studies reporting the incidence of PGD in adult HTx recipients. We used a random effects model to pool the incidence of PGD among HTx recipients and, for each PGD severity, the mortality rate among those who developed PGD. For prognostic factors evaluated in ≥2 studies, we used random effects meta-analyses to pool the adjusted odds ratios for development of PGD. The GRADE framework informed our certainty in the evidence. RESULTS: Of 148 publications identified, 36 observational studies proved eligible. With moderate certainty, we observed pooled incidences of 3.5%, 6.6%, 7.7%, and 1.6% and 1-year mortality rates of 15%, 21%, 41%, and 35% for mild, moderate, severe and isolated right ventricular-PGD, respectively. Donor factors (female sex, and undersized), recipient factors (creatinine, and pre-HTx use of amiodarone, and temporary or durable mechanical support), and prolonged ischemic time proved associated with PGD post-HTx. CONCLUSION: Our review suggests that the incidence of PGD may be low but its risk of mortality high, increasing with PGD severity. Prognostic factors, including undersized donor, recipient use of amiodarone pre-HTx and recipient creatinine may guide future studies in exploring donor and/or recipient selection and risk mitigation strategies.

Predictive models for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review and meta-analyses.

OBJECTIVE: To inform a clinical practice guideline (BMJ Rapid Recommendations) considering sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for treatment of adults with type 2 diabetes, we summarised the available evidence regarding the performance of validated risk models on cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in these patients. METHODS: We systematically searched bibliographic databases in January 2020 to identify observational studies evaluating risk models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, heart failure (HF) hospitalisations, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), myocardial infarction (MI) and ischaemic stroke in ambulatory adults with type 2 diabetes. Using a random effects model, we pooled discrimination measures for each model and outcome, separately, and descriptively summarised calibration plots, when available. We used the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool to assess risk of bias of each included study and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach to evaluate our certainty in the evidence. RESULTS: Of 22 589 publications identified, 15 observational studies reporting on seven risk models proved eligible. Among the seven models with >1 validation cohort, the Risk Equations for Complications of Type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) had the best calibration in primary studies and the highest pooled discrimination measures for the following outcomes: all-cause mortality (C-statistics 0.75, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.80; high certainty), cardiovascular mortality (0.79, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.84; low certainty), ESKD (0.73, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.94; low certainty), MI (0.72, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.74; moderate certainty) and stroke (0.71, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.74; moderate certainty). This model does not, however, predict risk of HF hospitalisations. CONCLUSION: Of available risk models, RECODe proved to have satisfactory calibration in primary validation studies and acceptable discrimination superior to other models, though with high risk of bias in most primary studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020168351.

Mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock supported with VA ECMO: A systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating the impact of etiology on 29,289 patients.

BACKGROUND: Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) is associated with variable outcomes. In this meta-analysis, we evaluated the mortality after VA ECMO across multiple etiologies of cardiogenic shock (CS). METHODS: In June 2019, we performed a systematic search selecting observational studies with ≥10 adult patients reporting on short-term mortality (30-day or mortality at discharge) after initiation of VA ECMO by CS etiology published after 2009. We performed meta-analyses using random effect models and used metaregression to evaluate mortality across CS etiology. RESULTS: We included 306 studies (29,289 patients): 25 studies on after heart transplantation (HTx) (771 patients), 13 on myocarditis (906 patients), 33 on decompensated heart failure (HF) (3,567 patients), 64 on after cardiotomy shock (8,231 patients), 10 on pulmonary embolism (PE) (221 patients), 80 on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (7,774 patients), and 113 on after cardiac arrest [CA] (7,814 patients). With moderate certainty on effect estimates, we observed significantly different mortality estimates for various etiologies (p < 0.001), which is not explained by differences in age and sex across studies: 35% (95% CI: 29-42) for after HTx, 40% (95% CI: 33-46) for myocarditis, 53% (95% CI: 46-59) for HF, 52% (95% CI: 38-66) for PE, 59% (95% CI: 56-63) for cardiotomy, 60% (95% CI: 57-64) for AMI, 64% (95% CI: 59-69) for post‒in-hospital CA, and 76% (95% CI: 69-82) for post-out‒of-hospital CA. Univariable metaregression showed that variation in mortality estimates within etiology group was partially explained by population age, proportion of females, left ventricle venting, and CA. CONCLUSIONS: Using an overall estimate of mortality for patients with CS requiring VA ECMO is inadequate given the differential outcomes by etiology. To further refine patient selection and management to improve outcomes, additional studies evaluating patient characteristics impacting outcomes by specific CS etiology are needed.

Resting Heart Rate as an Important Predictor of Mortality and Morbidity in Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Resting heart rate is a risk factor of adverse heart failure outcomes; however, studies have shown controversial results. This meta-analysis evaluates the association of resting heart rate with mortality and hospitalization and identifies factors influencing its effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: We systematically searched electronic databases in February 2019 for studies published in 2005 or before that evaluated the resting heart rate as a primary predictor or covariate of multivariable models of mortality and/or hospitalization in adult ambulatory patients with heart failure. Random effects inverse variance meta-analyses were performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach was used to assess evidence quality. Sixty-two studies on 163,445 patients proved eligible. Median population heart rate was 74 bpm (interquartile range 72-76 bpm). A 10-bpm increase was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.13, high quality). Overall, subgroup analyses related to patient characteristics showed no changes to the effect estimate; however, there was a strongly positive interaction with age showing increasing risk of all-cause mortality per 10 bpm increase in heart rate. CONCLUSIONS: High-quality evidence demonstrates increasing resting heart rate is a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in ambulatory patients with heart failure on optimal medical therapy, with consistent effect across most patient factors and an increased risk trending with older age.

Preoperative prognostic factors associated with postoperative delirium in older people undergoing surgery: protocol for a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients at risk for postoperative delirium is essential because adequate well-timed interventions could reduce the occurrence of delirium and the related detrimental outcomes. METHODS: We will conduct a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of prognostic studies evaluating the predictive value of risk factors associated with an increased risk of postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery. We will identify eligible studies through systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL from their inception to May 2020. Eligible studies will enroll older adults (≥ 50 years) undergoing elective surgery and assess pre-operative prognostic risk factors for delirium and incidence of delirium measured by a trained individual using a validated delirium assessment tool. Pairs of reviewers will, independently and in duplicate, screen titles and abstracts of identified citations, review the full texts of potentially eligible studies. We will contact chief investigators of eligible studies requesting to share the IPD to a secured repository. We will use one-stage approach for IPD meta-analysis and will assess certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. DISCUSSION: Since we are using existing anonymized data, ethical approval is not required for this study. Our results can be used to guide clinical decisions about the most efficient way to prevent postoperative delirium in elderly patients. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: CRD42020171366 .

Reduced Rate of Hospital Presentations for Heart Failure During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Toronto, Canada.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in public health measures and health care reconfigurations likely to have impact on chronic disease care. We aimed to assess the volume and characteristics of patients presenting to hospitals with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic compared with a time-matched 2019 cohort. Patients presenting to hospitals with ADHF from March 1, to April 19, 2020 and 2019 in an urban hospital were examined. Multivariable logistic-regression models were used to evaluate the difference in probability of ADHF-related hospitalization between the 2 years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a total of 1106 emergency department (ED) visits for dyspnea or peripheral edema were recorded, compared with 800 ED visits in 2019. A decrease in ADHF-related ED visits of 43.5% (14.8%-79.4%, P = 0.002) and ADHF-related admissions of 39.3% (8.6%-78.5%, P = 0.009) was observed compared with 2019. Patients with ADHF presenting to hospitals (n = 128) were similar in age, sex, and comorbidities compared with the 2019 cohort (n = 186); however, a higher proportion had recent diagnoses of heart failure. Upon ED presentation, the relative probability of hospitalization or admission to intensive care was not statistically different. There was a trend toward higher in-hospital mortality in 2020. The decline in ADHF-related hospitalizations raises the timely question of how patients with heart failure are managing beyond the acute-care setting and reinforces the need for public education on the availability and safety of emergency services throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Physician Judgement vs Model-Predicted Prognosis in Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Previous evidence suggests that cardiologists and family doctors have limited accuracy in predicting patient prognosis. Predictive models with satisfactory accuracy for estimating mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) exist; physicians, however, seldom use these models. We evaluated the relative accuracy of physician vs model prediction to estimate 1-year survival in ambulatory patients with HF. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre cross-sectional study involving 150 consecutive ambulatory patients with HF >18 years of age with a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%. Each patient's cardiologist and family doctor provided their predicted 1-year survival, and predicted survival scores were calculated using 3 models: HF Meta-Score, Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), and Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic HF (MAGGIC) score. We compared accuracy between physician and model predictions using intraclass correlation (ICC). RESULTS: Median predicted survival by HF cardiologists was lower (median 80%, interquartile range [IQR]: 61%-90%) than that predicted by family physicians (median 90%, IQR 70%-99%, P = 0.08). One-year median survival calculated by the HF Meta-Score (94.6%), SHFM (95.4%), and MAGGIC (88.9%,) proved as high or higher than physician estimates. Agreement among HF cardiologists (ICC 0.28-0.41) and family physicians (ICC 0.43-0.47) when compared with 1-year model-predicted survival scores proved limited, whereas the 3 models agreed well (ICC > 0.65). CONCLUSIONS: HF cardiologists underestimated survival in comparison with family physicians, whereas both physician estimates were lower than calculated model estimates. Our results provide additional evidence of potential inaccuracy of physician survival predictions in ambulatory patients with HF. These results should be validated in longitudinal studies collecting actual survival.

Comparing DXA and Air Displacement Plethysmography to Assess Body Composition of Male Collegiate Hockey Players.

Delisle-Houde, P, Reid, RER, Insogna, JA, Prokop, NW, Buchan, TA, Fontaine, SL, and Andersen, RE. Comparing DXA and air-displacement-plethysmography to assess body composition of male collegiate hockey players. J Strength Cond Res 33(2): 474-478, 2019-Accurate assessment of body composition is an important consideration for athletes because it is a health/performance variable. However, little is known about the variability in values obtained across different assessment methods for specific athlete populations. The purpose of this study was to compare 2 common laboratory methods that assess body composition: air displacement plethysmography (BOD POD) and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Twenty-nine male collegiate hockey players, (Age = 24.07 ± 1.49, BMI = 26.5 ± 2.74) participated in this study. All participants underwent back-to-back BOD POD and DXA evaluations. Paired t-tests and Bland-Altman analyses were performed to compare differences in fat mass, fat percentage, and fat-free mass between methods. Average fat percentage reported by the DXA and BOD POD was 15.34 ± 3.53 and 11.66 ± 4.82 respectively, resulting in a bias score of 3.78 ± 2.33 kg (t(28) = 8.71, p ≤ 0.001). Average fat mass reported by the DXA and BOD POD was 13.42 ± 3.59 and 10.15 ± 4.54 kg respectively, resulting in a bias score of 3.27 ± 1.92 kg (t(28) = 9.18, p ≤ 0.001). Average fat-free mass reported by the DXA and BOD POD was 73.31 ± 5.30 and 76.25 ± 5.74 kg respectively, resulting in a bias score of -2.93 ± 2.06 kg (t(28) = -7.66, p ≤ 0.001). Our findings can help make more insightful comparisons between studies that use different body composition methodologies among athletic populations.

Flow-related right ventricular to pulmonary arterial pressure gradients during exercise.

Aims: The assumption of equivalence between right ventricular (RV) and pulmonary arterial systolic pressure is fundamental to several assessments of RV or pulmonary vascular haemodynamic function. Our aims were to (i) determine whether systolic pressure gradients develop across the RV outflow tract in healthy adults during exercise, (ii) examine the potential correlates of such gradients, and (iii) consider the effect of such gradients on calculated indices of RV function. Methods and results: Healthy untrained and endurance-trained adult volunteers were studied using right-heart catheterization at rest and during submaximal cycle ergometry. RV and pulmonary artery (PA) pressures were simultaneously transduced, and the cardiac output was determined by thermodilution. Systolic pressures, peak and mean gradients, and indices of chamber, vascular, and valve function were analysed offline. Summary data are reported as mean ± standard deviation or median (interquartile range). No significant RV outflow tract gradients were observed at rest [mean gradient = 4 (3-5) mmHg], and the calculated effective orifice area was 3.6 ± 1.0 cm2. The increase in right ventricular systolic pressure during exercise was greater than the PA systolic pressure. Accordingly, mean gradients were developed during light exercise [8 (7-9) mmHg] and increased during moderate exercise [12 (9-14) mmHg, P < 0.001]. The magnitude of the mean gradient was linearly related to the cardiac output (r2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Conclusions: In healthy adults without pulmonic stenosis, systolic pressure gradients develop during exercise, and the magnitude is related to the blood flow rate.

Pulmonary hemodynamic and right ventricular responses to brief and prolonged exercise in middle-aged endurance athletes.

Right ventricular (RV) function is closely coupled to pulmonary arterial (PA) hemodynamics and is believed to decline with prolonged exercise. A linear pressure-flow relationship is thought to exist between PA pressures and increasing exercise intensity in athletes, yet a paucity of directly measured pulmonary hemodynamic data exists supporting this contention. We sought to describe the PA pressure, PA wedge pressure (PAWP), and RV functional responses to brief and prolonged exercise in endurance-trained athletes. Twenty-one healthy athletes (54 ± 5 yr) underwent right heart catheterization to assess pulmonary hemodynamics during graded, submaximal exercise. Measurements were made at rest and during three stages of steady-state, semiupright cycle ergometry at heart rates of 100 beats/min (EX1), 130 beats/min (EX2), and 150 beats/min (EX3). Five athletes completed an additional 34 min at 130 beats/min for a total exercise time of 60 min [prolonged exercise (PLG)]. PA pressures and PAWP increased significantly at EX1 without a further rise at EX2, EX3, or PLG. PAWP adjusted for absolute work rate demonstrated a significant decline as exercise intensity increased from EX1 to EX2. The resistance compliance time constant decreased at EX1 without further changes at EX2, EX3, and prolonged exercise. RV function did not decline during PLG. After an initial rise in PA pressure and PAWP during early, nonsteady-state exercise, values remained constant despite increases in exercise intensity and duration. These data indicate that in healthy, middle-aged endurance-trained athletes, the PA and pulmonary venous/left atrial compartments rapidly accommodate high conduit flows produced during intensive and prolonged exercise while maintaining RV function. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The right ventricular (RV)-pulmonary arterial (PA) circulatory unit has not been well studied during prolonged exercise, and this study provides an ecological approach that reflects a typical bout of endurance training integrating a transition from rest to exercise with successive increases in intensity, progressing to steady-state, sustained exercise. We demonstrated a remarkably constant response of the PA and PA wedge pressure during incremental, steady-state exercise and that no changes occur in pulmonary pressures throughout prolonged exercise, concomitant to a preservation of RV performance.