Long-term depressive symptom trajectories and related baseline characteristics in primary care patients: Analysis of the PsicAP clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: There is heterogeneity in the long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms among patients. To date, there has been little effort to inform the long-term trajectory of symptom change and the factors associated with different trajectories. Such knowledge is key to treatment decision-making in primary care, where depression is a common reason for consultation. We aimed to identify distinct long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms and explore pre-treatment characteristics associated with them. METHODS: A total of 483 patients from the PsicAP clinical trial were included. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify long-term distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms, and multinomial logistic regression models to explore associations between pre-treatment characteristics and trajectories. RESULTS: Four trajectories were identified that best explained the observed response patterns: "recovery" (64.18%), "late recovery" (10.15%), "relapse" (13.67%), and "chronicity" (12%). There was a higher likelihood of following the recovery trajectory for patients who had received psychological treatment in addition to the treatment as usual. Chronicity was associated with higher depressive severity, comorbidity (generalized anxiety, panic, and somatic symptoms), taking antidepressants, higher emotional suppression, lower levels on life quality, and being older. Relapse was associated with higher depressive severity, somatic symptoms, and having basic education, and late recovery was associated with higher depressive severity, generalized anxiety symptoms, greater disability, and rumination. CONCLUSIONS: There were different trajectories of depressive course and related prognostic factors among the patients. However, further research is needed before these findings can significantly influence care decisions.

Variation in symptoms of common mental disorders in the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic: longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A significant rise in mental health disorders was expected during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, referrals to mental health services dropped for several months before rising to pre-pandemic levels. AIMS: To identify trajectories of incidence and risk factors for common mental disorders among the general population during 14 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, to inform potential mental health service needs. METHOD: A cohort of 33 703 adults in England in the University College London COVID-19 Social Study provided data from March 2020 to May 2021. Growth mixture modelling was used to identify trajectories based on the probability of participants reporting symptoms of depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9) or anxiety (Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7) in the clinical range, for each month. Sociodemographic and personality-related characteristics associated with each trajectory class were explored. RESULTS: Five trajectory classes were identified for depression and anxiety. Participants in the largest class (62%) were very unlikely to report clinically significant symptom levels. Other trajectories represented participants with a high likelihood of clinically significant symptoms throughout, early clinically significant symptoms that reduced over time, clinically significant symptoms that emerged as the pandemic unfolded and a moderate likelihood of clinically significant symptoms throughout. Females, younger adults, carers, those with existing mental health diagnoses, those that socialised frequently pre-pandemic and those with higher neuroticism scores were more likely to experience depression or anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 40% of participants followed trajectories indicating risk of clinically significant symptoms of depression or anxiety. The identified risk factors could inform public health interventions to target individuals at risk in future health emergencies.

Predictors of primary care psychological therapy outcomes for depression and anxiety in people living with dementia: evidence from national healthcare records in England.

BACKGROUND: Psychological therapies can be effective in reducing symptoms of depression and anxiety in people living with dementia (PLWD). However, factors associated with better therapy outcomes in PLWD are currently unknown. AIMS: To investigate whether dementia-specific and non-dementia-specific factors are associated with therapy outcomes in PLWD. METHOD: National linked healthcare records were used to identify 1522 PLWD who attended psychological therapy services across England. Associations between various factors and therapy outcomes were explored. RESULTS: People with frontotemporal dementia were more likely to experience reliable deterioration in depression/anxiety symptoms compared with people with vascular dementia (odds ratio 2.98, 95% CI 1.08-8.22; P = 0.03) or Alzheimer's disease (odds ratio 2.95, 95% CI 1.15-7.55; P = 0.03). Greater depression severity (reliable recovery: odds ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98, P < 0.001; reliable deterioration: odds ratio 1.73, 95% CI 1.04-2.90, P = 0.04), lower work and social functioning (recovery: odds ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-0.99, P = 0.002), psychotropic medication use (recovery: odds ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.51-0.90, P = 0.01), being of working age (recovery: odds ratio 2.03, 95% CI 1.10-3.73, P = 0.02) and fewer therapy sessions (recovery: odds ratio 1.12, 95% CI 1.09-1.16, P < 0.001) were associated with worse therapy outcomes in PLWD. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia type was generally not associated with outcomes, whereas clinical factors were consistent with those identified for the general population. Additional support and adaptations may be required to improve therapy outcomes in PLWD, particularly in those who are younger and have more severe depression.

Differences in psychological treatment outcomes by ethnicity and gender: an analysis of individual patient data.

PURPOSE: There are discrepancies in mental health treatment outcomes between ethnic groups, which may differ between genders. NHS Talking Therapies for anxiety and depression provide evidence-based psychological therapies for common mental disorders. This study examines the intersection between ethnicity and gender as factors associated with psychological treatment outcomes. Aims were to explore by gender: (1) differences in psychological treatment outcomes for minoritized ethnic people compared to White-British people, (2) whether differences are observed when controlling for clinical and socio-demographic factors associated with outcomes, and (3) whether organization-level factors moderate differences in outcomes between ethnic groups. METHODS: Patient data from eight NHS Talking Therapies for anxiety and depression services (n = 98,063) was used to explore associations between ethnicity and outcomes, using logistic regression. Stratified subsamples were used to separately explore factors associated with outcomes for males and females. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, Asian (OR = 0.82 [95% CI 0.78; 0.87], p < .001, 'Other' (OR = 0.79 [95%CI 0.72-0.87], p < .001) and White-other (0.93 [95%CI 0.89-0.97], p < .001) ethnic groups were less likely to reliably recover than White-British people. Asian (OR = 1.48 [95% CI 1.35-1.62], p < .001), Mixed (OR = 1.18 [95% CI 1.05-1.34], p = .008), 'Other' (OR = 1.60 [95% CI 1.38-1.84], p < .001) and White-other (OR = 1.18 [95% CI 1.09-1.28], p < .001) groups were more likely to experience a reliable deterioration in symptoms. Poorer outcomes for these groups were consistent across genders. There was some evidence of interactions between ethnic groups and organization-level factors impacting outcomes, but findings were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Across genders, Asian, 'Other' and White-other groups experienced worse treatment outcomes across several measures in adjusted models. Reducing waiting times or offering more treatment sessions might lead to increased engagement and reduced drop-out for some patient groups.

Estimating life expectancy and years of life lost for autistic people in the UK: a matched cohort study.

Background: Previous research has shown that people who have been diagnosed autistic are more likely to die prematurely than the general population. However, statistics on premature mortality in autistic people have often been misinterpreted. In this study we aimed to estimate the life expectancy and years of life lost experienced by autistic people living in the UK. Methods: We studied people in the IQVIA Medical Research Database with an autism diagnosis between January 1, 1989 and January 16, 2019. For each participant diagnosed autistic, we included ten comparison participants without an autism diagnosis, matched by age, sex, and primary care practice. We calculated age- and sex-standardised mortality ratios comparing people diagnosed autistic to the reference group. We used Poisson regression to estimate age-specific mortality rates, and life tables to estimate life expectancy at age 18 and years of life lost. We analysed the data separately by sex, and for people with and without a record of intellectual disability. We discuss the findings in the light of the prevalence of recorded diagnosis of autism in primary care compared to community estimates. Findings: From a cohort of nearly 10 million people, we identified 17,130 participants diagnosed autistic without an intellectual disability (matched with 171,300 comparison participants), and 6450 participants diagnosed autistic with an intellectual disability (matched with 64,500 comparison participants). The apparent estimates indicated that people diagnosed with autism but not intellectual disability had 1.71 (95% CI: 1.39-2.11) times the mortality rate of people without these diagnoses. People diagnosed with autism and intellectual disability had 2.83 (95% CI: 2.33-3.43) times the mortality rate of people without these diagnoses. Likewise, the apparent reduction in life expectancy for people diagnosed with autism but not intellectual disability was 6.14 years (95% CI: 2.84-9.07) for men and 6.45 years (95% CI: 1.37-11.58 years) for women. The apparent reduction in life expectancy for people diagnosed with autism and intellectual disability was 7.28 years (95% CI: 3.78-10.27) for men and 14.59 years (95% CI: 9.45-19.02 years) for women. However, these findings are likely to be subject to exposure misclassification biases: very few autistic adults and older-adults have been diagnosed, meaning that we could only study a fraction of the total autistic population. Those who have been diagnosed may well be those with greater support needs and more co-occurring health conditions than autistic people on average. Interpretation: The findings indicate that there is a group of autistic people who experience premature mortality, which is of significant concern. There is an urgent need for investigation into the reasons behind this. However, our estimates suggest that the widely reported statistic that autistic people live 16-years less on average is likely incorrect. Nine out of 10 autistic people may have been undiagnosed across the time-period studied. Hence, the results of our study do not generalise to all autistic people. Diagnosed autistic adults, and particularly older adults, are likely those with greater-than-average support needs. Therefore, we may have over-estimated the reduction in life expectancy experienced by autistic people on average. The larger reduction in life expectancy for women diagnosed with autism and intellectual disability vs. men may in part reflect disproportionate underdiagnosis of autism and/or intellectual disability in women. Funding: Dunhill Medical Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and the Royal College of Psychiatrists.

The influence of peer non-suicidal self-harm on young adults' urges to self-harm: experimental study.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that exposure to peer self-harm induces adolescents' urges to self-harm and that this is influenced by individual suggestibility. METHODS: We recruited 97 UK-based adults aged 18-25 years with a recent history of self-harm, measuring baseline suggestibility (Resistance to Peer Influence; RPI) and perceived ability to control urges to self-harm (using an adapted item from the Self-Efficacy to Resist Suicidal Action scale; SEASA) before and after two self-harm vignettes featuring named peers from the participant's social network (to simulate exposure to peer non-suicidal self-harm) and after a wash-out exposure. We used paired t-tests to compare mean SEASA scores pre- and post-exposure, and linear regression to test for an association between RPI and change in SEASA scores pre- and post-exposure. RESULTS: Perceived ability to control urges to self-harm was significantly reduced following exposure to peer self-harm (t(96) = 4.02, p < 0.001, mean difference = 0.61; 95% CI = 0.31, 0.91), but was not significantly different from baseline after exposure to a wash-out. We found no association between suggestibility and change in urges to self-harm after exposure to peer self-harm. CONCLUSION: Our findings support social influences on self-harm in a sample of young adults, regardless of their individual degree of suggestibility.

Effectiveness of primary care psychological therapy services for treating depression and anxiety in autistic adults in England: a retrospective, matched, observational cohort study of national health-care records.

BACKGROUND: Autistic adults report a higher prevalence of anxiety and depression than adults without identified autism but have poorer access to appropriate mental health care. Evidence-based psychological therapies are recommended in treatment guidelines for autistic adults, but no study has investigated their effectiveness in large samples representative of the autistic population accessing routine care. This study aimed to examine therapy outcomes for autistic adults in a primary care service. METHODS: In this retrospective, matched, observational cohort study of national health-care records, we used the MODIFY dataset that used linked electronic health-care records, including national data, for individuals who accessed psychological therapy in primary care in Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services in 211 clinical commissioning group areas in England, UK. All adults aged 18 years or older who had completed a course of IAPT in 2012-19 were eligible, and were propensity score matched (1:1) with a comparison group without identified autism. Exact matching was used, when possible, for a range of sociodemographic factors. Primary outcomes were routine metrics that have been nationally defined and used to evaluate IAPT treatments: reliable improvement, reliable recovery, and reliable deterioration. Secondary outcomes were calculated pre-post treatment changes in scores for Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalised Anxiety Disorder Assessment-7, and Work and Social Adjustment Scale measures. Subgroup analyses investigated differential effects across a range of sociodemographic factors. FINDINGS: Of 2 515 402 adults who completed at least two sessions of IAPT in 2012-19, 8761 had an autism diagnosis (5054 [57·7%] male and 3707 [42·3%] female) and 1 918 504 did not (631 606 [32·9%] male and 1 286 898 [67·0%] female). After propensity score matching, 8593 autistic individuals were matched with an individual in the comparison group. During IAPT treatment, symptoms of depression and generalised anxiety disorder decreased for most autistic adults, but symptoms were less likely to improve in the autism group than in the comparison group (4820 [56·1%] of 8593 autistic adults had reliable improvement vs 5304 [61·7%] of 8593 adults in the matched group; adjusted odds ratio [ORadj] 0·75, 95% CI 0·70-0·80; p<0·0001) and symptoms were more likely to deteriorate (792 [9·2%] vs 619 [7·2%]; ORadj 1·34, 1·18-1·48; p<0·0001). In the comparison group, improved outcomes were associated with employment and belonging to a higher socioeconomic deprivation category, but this was not the case for autistic adults. INTERPRETATION: Evidence-based psychological therapy for depression or anxiety might be effective for autistic adults but less so than for adults without identified autism. Treatment moderators appear different for autistic individuals, so more research is needed to allow for better targeted and personalised care. FUNDING: Alzheimer's Society.

Understanding the psychological therapy treatment outcomes for young adults who are not in education, employment, or training (NEET), moderators of outcomes, and what might be done to improve them.

BACKGROUND: To determine: whether young adults (aged 18-24) not in education, employment or training (NEET) have different psychological treatment outcomes to other young adults; any socio-demographic or treatment-related moderators of differential outcomes; and whether service-level changes are associated with better outcomes for those who are NEET. METHODS: A cohort was formed of 20 293 young adults treated with psychological therapies in eight Improving Access to Psychological Therapies services. Pre-treatment characteristics, outcomes, and moderators of differential outcomes were compared for those who were and were not NEET. Associations between outcomes and the following were assessed for those that were NEET: missing fewer sessions, attending more sessions, having a recorded diagnosis, and waiting fewer days between referral and starting treatment. RESULTS: Those who were NEET had worse outcomes: odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for reliable recovery = 0.68 (0.63-0.74), for deterioration = 1.41 (1.25-1.60), and for attrition = 1.31 (1.19-1.43). Ethnic minority participants that were NEET had better outcomes than those that were White and NEET. Living in deprived areas was associated with worse outcomes. The intensity of treatment (high or low) did not moderate outcomes, but having more sessions was associated with improved outcomes for those that were NEET: odds (per one-session increase) of reliable recovery = 1.10 (1.08-1.12), deterioration = 0.94 (0.91-0.98), and attrition = 0.68 (0.66-0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Earlier treatment, supporting those that are NEET to attend sessions, and in particular, offering them more sessions before ending treatment might be effective in improving clinical outcomes. Additional support when working with White young adults that are NEET and those in more deprived areas may also be important.

A service evaluation of phased- and stepped-care psychological support for health and social care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionally affected the mental health of health and social care workers (HSCWs), with many experiencing symptoms of depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder. Psychological interventions have been offered via mental health services and in-house psychology teams, but their effectiveness in this context is not well documented. AIMS: To evaluate a stepped-care psychological support pathway for HSCWs from Homerton Healthcare Foundation Trust in London, which offered psychological first aid, evidence-based psychological therapies and group-based well-being workshops. METHOD: The service evaluation used a pre-post approach to assess depression, anxiety, functional impairment and post-traumatic stress disorder symptom change for those who attended sessions of psychological first aid, low- or high-intensity cognitive-behavioural therapy or a combination of these. In addition, the acceptability of the psychological first aid sessions and well-being workshops was explored via feedback data. RESULTS: Across all interventions, statistically significant reductions of depression (d = 1.33), anxiety (d = 1.37) and functional impairment (d = 0.93) were observed, and these reductions were equivalent between the interventions, as well as the demographic and occupational differences between the HSCWs (ethnicity, staff group and redeployment status). HSCWs were highly satisfied with the psychological first aid and well-being workshops. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation supports the utility of evidence-based interventions delivered as part of a stepped-care pathway for HSCWs with common mental health problems in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the novel integration of psychological first aid within the stepped-care model as a step one intervention, replication and further testing in larger-scale studies is warranted.

Autism in England: assessing underdiagnosis in a population-based cohort study of prospectively collected primary care data.

Background: Autism has long been viewed as a paediatric condition, meaning that many autistic adults missed out on a diagnosis as children when autism was little known. We estimated numbers of diagnosed and undiagnosed autistic people in England, and examined how diagnostic rates differed by socio-demographic factors. Methods: This population-based cohort study of prospectively collected primary care data from IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD) compared the prevalence of diagnosed autism to community prevalence to estimate underdiagnosis. 602,433 individuals registered at an English primary care practice in 2018 and 5,586,100 individuals registered between 2000 and 2018 were included. Findings: Rates of diagnosed autism in children/young people were much higher than in adults/older adults. As of 2018, 2.94% of 10- to 14-year-olds had a diagnosis (1 in 34), vs. 0.02% aged 70+ (1 in 6000). Exploratory projections based on these data suggest that, as of 2018, 463,500 people (0.82% of the English population) may have been diagnosed autistic, and between 435,700 and 1,197,300 may be autistic and undiagnosed (59-72% of autistic people, 0.77%-2.12% of the English population). Age-related inequalities were also evident in new diagnoses (incidence): c.1 in 250 5- to 9-year-olds had a newly-recorded autism diagnosis in 2018, vs. c.1 in 4000 20- to 49-year-olds, and c.1 in 18,000 people aged 50+. Interpretation: Substantial age-related differences in the proportions of people diagnosed suggest an urgent need to improve access to adult autism diagnostic services. Funding: Dunhill Medical Trust, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, the Wellcome Trust, and the Royal College of Psychiatrists.

Identifying prognostic indicators for cognitive stimulation therapy for dementia: protocol for a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive stimulation therapy (CST) is the only non-pharmacological, treatment for dementia recommended by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, following multiple international trials demonstrating beneficial cognitive outcomes in people with mild-to-moderate dementia. However, there is limited understanding of whether treatment prognosis is influenced by sociodemographic and clinical variables (such as dementia subtype and gender), information which could inform clinical decision-making. AIM: We describe the protocol for a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis assessing the prognostic factors related to CST. In publishing this protocol, we hope to increase the transparency of our work, and keep healthcare professionals aware of the latest evidence for effective CST. METHOD: A systematic review will be conducted with searches of the bibliographic databases Medline, EMBASE and PsycINFO, from inception to 7 February 2023. Studies will be included if they are clinical trials of CST, use the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale (gold-standard measure of cognition in dementia in clinical trials) and include participants with mild-to-moderate dementia. Following harmonisation of the data-set, mixed-effect models will be constructed to explore the relationship between the prognostic indicators and change scores post-treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first individual patient data meta-analyses on CST, and has the potential to significantly optimise patient care. Previous analyses suggest people with advanced dementia could benefit more from CST treatment. Given that CST is currently used post-diagnosis in people with mild-to-moderate dementia, the implications of confirming this finding, among identifying other prognostic indicators, are profound.

Psychological therapies for depression and cardiovascular risk: evidence from national healthcare records in England.

AIMS: People with depression are up to 72% more at risk to develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) in their lifetime. Evidence-based psychotherapies are first-line interventions for the treatment of depression and are delivered nationally in England through the National Health Service via the Improving Access to Psychological Therapy (IAPT) primary care programme. It is currently unknown whether positive therapy outcomes may be associated with cardiovascular risk reduction. This study aimed to examine the association between psychotherapy outcomes for depression and incident CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cohort of 636 955 individuals who have completed a course of psychotherapy was built from linked electronic healthcare record databases of national coverage in England: the national IAPT database, the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database, and the HES-ONS (Office of National Statistics) mortality database. Multivariable Cox models adjusting for clinical and demographic covariates were run to estimate the association between reliable improvement from depression and the risk of subsequent incidence of cardiovascular events. After a median follow-up of 3.1 years, reliable improvement from depression symptoms was associated with a lower risk of new onset of any CVD [hazard ratio (HR): 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86, 0.89], coronary heart disease (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.92), stroke (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.94), and all-cause mortality (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.84). This association was stronger in the under 60 compared with the over 60 for all outcomes. Results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Management of depression through psychological interventions may be associated with reduced risk of CVD. More research is needed to understand the causality of these associations.

Measurement invariance of the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 across males and females seeking treatment for common mental health disorders.

BACKGROUND: The nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the seven-item Generalised Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-7) scales are routinely used in research and clinical practice. Whilst measurement invariance of these measures across gender has been demonstrated individually in general population studies and clinical samples, less is known about invariance of the distinct but correlated latent factors ('depression' and 'anxiety'). The current study assessed measurement invariance of these constructs across males and females seeking treatment for common mental health disorders. METHODS: Data were provided from eight psychological treatment services in London, England. Data from initial assessments with the services where individual items on the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 were available were included in analyses. Measurement invariance was explored across self-identified genders, with 'male' and 'female' categories available in the dataset. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using propensity score matching on sociodemographic and clinical variables. RESULTS: Data were available for 165,872 patients (110,833 females, 55,039 males). There was evidence of measurement invariance between males and females in both the full sample and a propensity score matched sample (n = 46,249 in each group). CONCLUSIONS: Measurement invariance of the correlated depression and anxiety factors of PHQ-9 and GAD-7 were indicated in this sample of individuals seeking psychological treatment for CMHDs. These results support the use of these measures in routine clinical practice for both males and females. This is of particular importance for assessing the prevalence of clinically significant levels of symptoms as well as comparing treatment outcomes across genders.

The association between trajectories of change in social functioning and psychological treatment outcome in university students: a growth mixture model analysis.

BACKGROUND: The transition to university and resultant social support network disruption can be detrimental to the mental health of university students. As the need for mental health support is becoming increasingly prevalent in students, identification of factors associated with poorer outcomes is a priority. Changes in social functioning have a bi-directional relationship with mental health, however it is not clear how such measures may be related to effectiveness of psychological treatments. METHODS: Growth mixture models were estimated on a sample of 5221 students treated in routine mental health services to identify different trajectories of change in self-rated impairment in social leisure activities and close relationships during the course of treatment. Multinomial regression explored associations between trajectory classes and treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Five trajectory classes were identified for social leisure activity impairment while three classes were identified for close relationship impairment. In both measures most students remained mildly impaired. Other trajectories included severe impairment with limited improvement, severe impairment with delayed improvement, and, in social leisure activities only, rapid improvement, and deterioration. Trajectories of improvement were associated with positive treatment outcomes while trajectories of worsening or stable severe impairment were associated with negative treatment outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in social functioning impairment are associated with psychological treatment outcomes in students, suggesting that these changes may be associated with treatment effectiveness as well as recovery experiences. Future research should seek to establish whether a causal link exists to understand whether integrating social support within psychological treatment may bring additional benefit for students.

Examining the Lancet Commission risk factors for dementia using Mendelian randomisation.

BACKGROUND: Dementia incidence is increasing across the globe and currently there are no disease-modifying pharmaceutical treatments. The Lancet Commission on dementia identified 12 modifiable risk factors which explain 40% of dementia incidence. However, whether these associations are causal in nature is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To examine the modifiable risk factors for dementia as identified in the Lancet Commission review using Mendelian randomisation (MR) to establish if, based on genetic evidence, these associations with different dementia subtypes are causal in nature. METHODS: Publicly available genome-wide association study data were used for 10 risk factors and Alzheimer's disease (AD), frontotemporal dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies. Two-sample MR using the inverse varianceweighted method was conducted to test for causal relationships. Weighted median MR and MR-Egger were used to test for pleiotropic effects. RESULTS: Genetic proxied risk for higher levels of smoking (OR: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.69; 0.92), p=0.002), obesity (OR: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.82; 0.92), p<0.001) and blood pressure (OR: 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82; 0.99), p=0.035) appeared to be protective against the risk of AD. Post hoc analyses indicated these associations had pleiotropic effects with the risk of coronary artery disease. Genetic proxied risk of educational attainment was found to be inconsistently associated with the risk of AD. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Post hoc analysis indicated that the apparent protective effects of smoking, obesity and blood pressure were a result of survivor bias. The findings from this study did not support those presented by the Lancet Commission. Evidence from causal inference studies should be considered alongside evidence from epidemiological studies and incorporated into reviews of the literature.

Symptom-specific effects of counselling for depression compared to cognitive-behavioural therapy.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) and counselling for depression (CfD) are recommended first-line treatments for depression. While they approach change differently, there is little understanding of the impact those approaches have on change during treatment. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify whether CBT and CfD target different symptoms and explore the implications of modelling choices when quantifying change during treatment. METHODS: Symptom-specific effects of treatment were identified using moderated network modelling. This was a retrospective cohort study of 12 756 individuals who received CBT or CfD for depression in primary/community care psychological therapy services in England. Change was modelled several ways within the whole sample and a propensity score matched sample (n=3446). FINDINGS: CBT for depression directly affected excessive worry, trouble relaxing and apprehensive expectation and had a stronger influence on changes between suicidal ideation and concentration. CfD had a stronger direct influence on thoughts of being a failure and on the associated change between being an easily annoyed and apprehensive of expectation. There were inconsistencies when modelling change using the first and second appointments as the baseline. Residual score models produced more conservative findings than models using difference scores. CONCLUSIONS: CfD and CBT for depression have differential effects on symptoms demonstrating specific mechanisms of change. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: CBT was uniquely associated with changes in symptoms associated with anxiety and may be better suited to those with anxiety symptoms comorbid to their depression. When assessing change, the baseline should be the first therapy session, not the pretreatment assessment. Residual change scores should be preferred over difference score methods.

Associations between psychological intervention for anxiety disorders and risk of dementia: a prospective cohort study using national health-care records data in England.

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses support an association between anxiety in older adulthood and dementia. The aim of this study was to use routinely collected health data to test whether treatment of anxiety disorders through psychological intervention is associated with a lower incidence of dementia. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, data from nationally provided psychological therapy services in England termed Improving Access to Psychological Therapies from 2012 to 2019 were linked to medical records, including dementia diagnoses as defined by the tenth edition of the International Classification of Diseases, up to 8 follow-up years later. Inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) patients who were aged 65 years and older; (2) patients with a probable anxiety disorder; and (3) those with no previous or current diagnosis of dementia. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to test whether reliable improvement in anxiety following psychological intervention was associated with future dementia incidence. The primary outcome was all-cause dementia and cases were identified using ICD-10 dementia codes from Hospital Episode Statistics, Mental Health Services Dataset, and mortality data. For main analyses, hazards ratios (HRs) are presented. FINDINGS: Data from 128 077 people aged 65 years and older attending a nationally provided psychological intervention service in England were linked to medical records. 88 019 (69·0%) of 127 064 participants with available gender data were women and 39 585 (31·0%) were men. 111 225 (95·9%) of 115 989 with available ethnicity data were of White ethnicity. The mean age of the sample was 71·55 years (SD 5·69). Fully adjusted models included data from 111 958 people after 16 119 were excluded due to missing data on key variables or covariates. 4510 (4·0%) of 111 958 participants had a dementia diagnosis. The remaining 107 448 (96·0%) were censored either at date of death or when the final follow-up period available for analyses was reached. People who showed reliable improvement in anxiety had lower rates of later dementia diagnosis (3·9%) than those who did not show reliable improvement (5·1%). Reliable improvement in anxiety following psychological intervention was associated with reduced incidence of all-cause dementia (HR 0·83 [95% CI 0·78-0·88]), Alzheimer's disease (HR 0·85 [0·77-0·94]), and vascular dementia (HR 0·80 [0·71-0·90]). Effects did not differ depending on anxiety disorder diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Results showed that reliable improvement in anxiety from psychological therapy was associated with reduced incidence of future dementia. There are multiple plausible explanations for this finding and further research is needed to distinguish between these possibilities. Missing data in the sample limit reliability of findings. FUNDING: Alzheimer's Society, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and UCLH National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centre.

Trajectories of depression and anxiety symptom severity during psychological therapy for common mental health problems.

BACKGROUND: There is substantial variation in patient symptoms following psychological therapy for depression and anxiety. However, reliance on endpoint outcomes ignores additional interindividual variation during therapy. Knowing a patient's likely symptom trajectories could guide clinical decisions. We aimed to identify latent classes of patients with similar symptom trajectories over the course of psychological therapy and explore associations between baseline variables and trajectory class. METHODS: Patients received high-intensity psychological treatment for common mental health problems at National Health Service Improving Access to Psychological Therapies services in South London (N = 16 258). To identify trajectories, we performed growth mixture modelling of depression and anxiety symptoms over 11 sessions. We then ran multinomial regressions to identify baseline variables associated with trajectory class membership. RESULTS: Trajectories of depression and anxiety symptoms were highly similar and best modelled by four classes. Three classes started with moderate-severe symptoms and showed (1) no change, (2) gradual improvement, and (3) fast improvement. A final class (4) showed initially mild symptoms and minimal improvement. Within the moderate-severe baseline symptom classes, patients in the two showing improvement as opposed to no change tended not to be prescribed psychotropic medication or report a disability and were in employment. Patients showing fast improvement additionally reported lower baseline functional impairment on average. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple trajectory classes of depression and anxiety symptoms were associated with baseline characteristics. Identifying the most likely trajectory for a patient at the start of treatment could inform decisions about the suitability and continuation of therapy, ultimately improving patient outcomes.

Associations between psychological therapy outcomes for depression and incidence of dementia.

BACKGROUND: Depression is an important, potentially modifiable dementia risk factor. However, it is not known whether effective treatment of depression through psychological therapies is associated with reduced dementia incidence. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between reduction in depressive symptoms following psychological therapy and the subsequent incidence of dementia. METHODS: National psychological therapy data were linked with hospital records of dementia diagnosis for 119808 people aged 65+. Participants received a course of psychological therapy treatment in Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services between 2012 and 2019. Cox proportional hazards models were run to test associations between improvement in depression following psychological therapy and incidence of dementia diagnosis up to eight years later. RESULTS: Improvements in depression following treatment were associated with reduced rates of dementia diagnosis up to 8 years later (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.94), after adjustment for key covariates. Strongest effects were observed for vascular dementia (HR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.97) compared with Alzheimer's disease (HR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.83-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Reliable improvement in depression across psychological therapy was associated with reduced incidence of future dementia. Results are consistent with at least two possibilities. Firstly, psychological interventions to improve symptoms of depression may have the potential to contribute to dementia risk reduction efforts. Secondly, psychological therapies may be less effective in people with underlying dementia pathology or they may be more likely to drop out of therapy (reverse causality). Tackling the under-representation of older people in psychological therapies and optimizing therapy outcomes is an important goal for future research.