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We combined two climate-based distribution models with three finer-scale suitability models to identify habitat for pronghorn recovery in California now and into the future. We used a consensus approach to identify areas of suitable climate now and future for pronghorn in California. We compared the results of climate models from two separate hypotheses about their historical ecology in the state. Under the migration hypothesis, pronghorn were expected to be limited climatically by extreme cold in winter and extreme heat in summer; under the niche reduction hypothesis, historical pronghorn of distribution would have better represented the climatic limitations of the species. We combined occurrences from GPS collars distributed across three populations of pronghorn in the state to create three distinct habitat suitability models: (1) an ensemble model using random forests, Maxent, classification and regression Trees, and a generalized linear model; (2) a step selection function; and (3) an expert-driven model. We evaluated consensus among both the climate models and the suitability models to prioritize areas for, and evaluate the prospects of, pronghorn recovery. Climate suitability for pronghorn in the future depends heavily on model assumptions. Under the migration hypothesis, our model predicted that there will be no suitable climate in California in the future. Under the niche reduction hypothesis, by contrast, suitable climate will expand. Habitat suitability also depended on the methods used, but areas of consensus among all three models exist in large patches throughout the state. Identifying habitat for a species which has undergone extreme range collapse, and which has very fine scale habitat needs, presents novel challenges for spatial ecologists. Our multimethod, multihypothesis approach can allow habitat modelers to identify areas of consensus and, perhaps more importantly, fill critical knowledge gaps that could resolve disagreements among the models. For pronghorn, a better understanding of their upper thermal tolerances and whether historical populations migrated will be crucial to their potential recovery in California and throughout the arid Southwest.
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Positive associations between animals and foundational shrub species are frequent in desert ecosystems for shelter, resources, refuge, and other key ecological processes. Herein, we tested the impact of the density of the shrub species Ephedra californica on the presence and habitat use of the federally endangered lizard species, Gambelia sila. To do this, we used a 3-year radio telemetry dataset and satellite-based counts of shrub density across sites at the Carrizo Plain National Monument in San Luis Obispo County, CA. The effect of shrub density on lizard presence was contrasted with previous shrub cover analyses to determine whether measures of shrub density were superior to shrub cover in predicting lizard presence. Increasing shrub density increased lizard presence. As shrub density increased, lizards were located more frequently "above ground" versus "below ground" in burrows. Male lizards had significantly larger home ranges than females, but both sexes were similarly associated with increasing shrub densities. Shrub density and shrub cover models did not significantly differ in their prediction of lizard presence. These findings suggest that both habitat measures are effective analogs and that ecologically, both cover and the density of foundation shrub species are key factors for some desert lizards.
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Climate change profoundly influences plants and animals in all ecosystems including drylands such as semi-arid and arid scrublands and grasslands. At the peak of an extended megadrought in the Southwestern USA, the microclimatic refuges provided by foundation plant species and through associated vegetation were examined. Shrubs and open interstitial spaces without a canopy but with annual plants were instrumented in 2016 and the wet season of 2017 in the central drylands of California. In both years and all seasons tested, vegetation significantly mediated fine-scale near-surface air temperature and relative soil moisture content-defined here as microclimate. The foundation species with other vegetation provided the most significant thermal refuge potential capacity for other plants and animals, but there was variation by growing season. Soil moisture content was frequently increased by the direct canopy effects of shrubs. This evidence suggests that the climate many plants and animals experience, even during an extended megadrought, is mediated by the local plants in highly impacted drylands with anthropogenic disturbance and significant water-induced challenges. Foundation species such as shrubs in drylands function as a potent starting point in examining the ecological relevance of climate at scales germane to many species locally. An ecological framework for climate resilience using shrubs will improve conservation and restoration planning in drylands.
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Ecosistema , Microclima , Animales , Plantas , Cambio Climático , Suelo , AguaRESUMEN
Restoration of agricultural drylands globally, here farmlands and grazing lands, is a priority for ecosystem function and biodiversity preservation. Natural areas in drylands are recognized as biodiversity hotspots and face continued human impacts. Global water shortages are driving increased agricultural land retirement providing the opportunity to reclaim some of these lands for natural habitat. We used meta-analysis to contrast different classes of dryland restoration practices. All interventions were categorized as active and passive for the analyses of efficacy in dryland agricultural ecosystems. We evaluated the impact of 19 specific restoration practices from 42 studies on soil, plant, animal, and general habitat targets across 16 countries, for a total of 1,427 independent observations. Passive vegetation restoration and grazing exclusion led to net positive restoration outcomes. Passive restoration practices were more variable and less effective than active restoration practices. Furthermore, passive soil restoration led to net negative restoration outcomes. Active restoration practices consistently led to positive outcomes for soil, plant, and habitat targets. Water supplementation was the most effective restoration practice. These findings suggest that active interventions are necessary and critical in most instances for dryland agricultural ecosystems likely because of severe anthropogenic pressures and concurrent environmental stressors-both past and present.
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A recent global trend toward retirement of farmland presents opportunities to reclaim habitat for threatened and endangered species. We examine habitat restoration opportunities in one of the world's most converted landscapes, California's San Joaquin Desert (SJD). Despite the presence of 35 threatened and endangered species, agricultural expansion continues to drive habitat loss in the SJD, even as marginal farmland is retired. Over the next decades a combination of factors, including salinization, climate change, and historical groundwater overdraft, are projected to lead to the retirement of more than 2,000 km2 of farmland in the SJD. To promote strategic habitat protection and restoration, we conducted a quantitative assessment of habitat loss and fragmentation, habitat suitability, climatic niche stability, climate change impacts, habitat protection, and reintroduction opportunities for an umbrella species of the SJD, the endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila). We use our suitability models, in conjunction with modern and historical land use maps, to estimate the historical and modern rate of habitat loss to development. The estimated amount of habitat lost since the species became protected under endangered species law in 1967 is greater than the total amount of habitat currently protected through public ownership and conservation easement. We document climatic niche contraction and associated range contraction away from the more mesic margins of the species' historical distribution, driven by the anthropogenic introduction of exotic grasses and forbs. The impact of exotic species on G. sila range dynamics appears to be still unfolding. Finally, we use NASA fallowed area maps to identify 610 km2 of fallowed or retired agricultural land with high potential to again serve as habitat. We discuss conservation strategies in light of the potential for habitat restoration and multiple drivers of ongoing and historical habitat loss.
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Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/métodos , Clima Desértico , Ecosistema , Agricultura , Animales , California , Cambio Climático , Especies en Peligro de Extinción , Lagartos , Modelos Biológicos , Recursos Naturales , FilogeografíaRESUMEN
Invasive weeds threaten the biodiversity and forage productivity of grasslands worldwide. However, management of these weeds is constrained by the practical difficulty of detecting small-scale infestations across large landscapes and by limits in understanding of landscape-scale invasion dynamics, including mechanisms that enable patches to expand, contract, or remain stable. While high-end hyperspectral remote sensing systems can effectively map vegetation cover, these systems are currently too costly and limited in availability for most land managers. We demonstrate application of a more accessible and cost-effective remote sensing approach, based on simple aerial imagery, for quantifying weed cover dynamics over time. In California annual grasslands, the target communities of interest include invasive weedy grasses (Aegilops triuncialis and Elymus caput-medusae) and desirable forage grass species (primarily Avena spp. and Bromus spp.). Detecting invasion of annual grasses into an annual-dominated community is particularly challenging, but we were able to consistently characterize these two communities based on their phenological differences in peak growth and senescence using maximum likelihood supervised classification of imagery acquired twice per year (in mid- and end-of season). This approach permitted us to map weed-dominated cover at a 1-m scale (correctly detecting 93% of weed patches across the landscape) and to evaluate weed cover change over time. We found that weed cover was more pervasive and persistent in management units that had no significant grazing for several years than in those that were grazed, whereas forage cover was more abundant and stable in the grazed units. This application demonstrates the power of this method for assessing fine-scale vegetation transitions across heterogeneous landscapes. It thus provides means for small-scale early detection of invasive species and for testing fundamental questions about landscape dynamics.
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Ecosistema , Pradera , Especies Introducidas , Malezas/fisiología , Biodiversidad , Bromus/fisiología , California , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Elymus/fisiología , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
Genomic responses to habitat conversion can be rapid, providing wildlife managers with time-limited opportunities to enact recovery efforts that use population connectivity information that reflects predisturbance landscapes. Despite near-complete biome conversion, such opportunities may still exist for the endemic fauna and flora of California's San Joaquin Desert, but comprehensive genetic data sets are lacking for nearly all species in the region. To fill this knowledge gap, we studied the rangewide population structure of the endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizard Gambelia sila, a San Joaquin Desert endemic, using restriction site-associated DNA (RAD), microsatellite and mtDNA data to test whether admixture patterns and estimates of effective migration surfaces (EEMS) can identify land areas with high population connectivity prior to the conversion of native xeric habitats. Clustering and phylogenetic analyses indicate a recent shared history between numerous isolated populations and EEMS reveals latent signals of corridors and barriers to gene flow over areas now replaced by agriculture and urbanization. Conflicting histories between the mtDNA and nuclear genomes are consistent with hybridization with the sister species G. wislizenii, raising important questions about where legal protection should end at the southern range limit of G. sila. Comparative analysis of different data sets also adds to a growing list of advantages in using RAD loci for genetic studies of rare species. We demonstrate how the results of this work can serve as an evolutionary guidance tool for managing endemic, arid-adapted taxa in one of the world's most compromised landscapes.
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Clima Desértico , Ecosistema , Especies en Peligro de Extinción , Genética de Población , Lagartos/genética , Animales , California , ADN Mitocondrial/genética , Flujo Génico , Repeticiones de Microsatélite , FilogeniaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Carrizo Plain National Monument (San Joaquin Desert, California, USA) is home to many threatened and endangered species including the blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila). Vegetation is dominated by annual grasses, and shrubs such as Mormon tea (Ephedra californica), which is of relevance to our target species, the federally listed blunt-nosed leopard lizard, and likely also provides key ecosystem services. We used relatively nonintrusive camera traps, or trail cameras, to capture interactions between animals and these shrubs using a paired shrub-open deployment. Cameras were placed within the shrub understory and in open microhabitats at ground level to estimate animal activity and determine species presence. FINDINGS: Twenty cameras were deployed from April 1st, 2015 to July 5th, 2015 at paired shrub-open microsites at three locations. Over 425,000 pictures were taken during this time, of which 0.4 % detected mammals, birds, insects, and reptiles including the blunt-nosed leopard lizard. Trigger rate was very high on the medium sensitivity camera setting in this desert ecosystem, and rates did not differ between microsites. CONCLUSIONS: Camera traps are an effective, less invasive survey method for collecting data on the presence or absence of desert animals in shrub and open microhabitats. A more extensive array of cameras within an arid region would thus be an effective tool to estimate the presence of desert animals and potentially detect habitat use patterns.
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Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.
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Cambio Climático , Sequías , Animales , Especies en Peligro de Extinción , Lagartos , Dinámica Poblacional , Tiempo (Meteorología)RESUMEN
Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define "available" habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining "available" habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and temporal scales relevant to theoretical and applied ecologists.