How useful are genomic data for predicting maladaptation to future climate?

Methods using genomic information to forecast potential population maladaptation to climate change or new environments are becoming increasingly common, yet the lack of model validation poses serious hurdles toward their incorporation into management and policy. Here, we compare the validation of maladaptation estimates derived from two methods-Gradient Forests (GFoffset) and the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA)-using exome capture pool-seq data from 35 to 39 populations across three conifer taxa: two Douglas-fir varieties and jack pine. We evaluate sensitivity of these algorithms to the source of input loci (markers selected from genotype-environment associations [GEA] or those selected at random). We validate these methods against 2- and 52-year growth and mortality measured in independent transplant experiments. Overall, we find that both methods often better predict transplant performance than climatic or geographic distances. We also find that GFoffset and RONA models are surprisingly not improved using GEA candidates. Even with promising validation results, variation in model projections to future climates makes it difficult to identify the most maladapted populations using either method. Our work advances understanding of the sensitivity and applicability of these approaches, and we discuss recommendations for their future use.

Weak local adaptation to drought in seedlings of a widespread conifer.

Tree seedlings from populations native to drier regions are often assumed to be more drought tolerant than those from wetter provenances. However, intraspecific variation in drought tolerance has not been well-characterized despite being critical for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and for predicting the effects of drought on forests. We used a large-scale common garden drought-to-death experiment to assess range-wide variation in drought tolerance, measured by decline of photosynthetic efficiency, growth, and plastic responses to extreme summer drought in seedlings of 73 natural populations of the two main varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii and var. glauca). Local adaptation to drought was weak in var. glauca and nearly absent in menziesii. Var. glauca showed higher tolerance to drought but slower growth than var. menziesii. Clinal variation in drought tolerance and growth species-wide was mainly associated with temperature rather than precipitation. A higher degree of plasticity for growth was observed in var. menziesii in response to extreme drought. Genetic variation for drought tolerance in seedlings within varieties is maintained primarily within populations. Selective breeding within populations may facilitate adaptation to drought more than assisted gene flow.

Genetic and demographic aspects of Varronia curassavica Jacq. in a heterogeneous coastal ecosystem.

The restinga is a threatened Brazilian ecosystem and a highly heterogeneous environment. This work aimed to evaluate demographic and genetic aspects of Varronia curassavica and whether environmental heterogeneity can influence the studied population parameters. Three annual evaluations were carried out in an area of restinga in Florianópolis-SC, Brazil. Demographic data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and the spatial distribution pattern was calculated by Ripley's K-function and correlated with environmental characteristics. To characterize diversity and genetic structure, eight microsatellite markers were used. This work demonstrated that variations in the distribution of individuals and genotypes can be related to specific environments. Dry lowlands were environments favorable to population development, and flooded lowland and mobile dunes were unfavorable. The fixation indices were distinct between environments, evidencing a tendency toward preferential crosses in favor of heterozygotes. We found absence of spatial genetic structure, indicating that genotypes are randomly distributed and that gene flow may be related to such genetic factors as the presence of autoincompatibility mechanisms. This diversity of environments contributed to the aggregate distribution and is relevant for the maintenance of demographic and genetic processes of the species in restingas, and this aspect should be considered for in situ conservation.