Using emotion to guide decisions: the accuracy and perceived value of emotional intensity forecasts.

Forecasts about future emotion are often inaccurate, so why do people rely on them to make decisions? People may forecast some features of their emotional experience better than others, and they may report relying on forecasts that are more accurate to make decisions. To test this, four studies assessed the features of emotion people reported forecasting to make decisions about their careers, education, politics, and health. In Study 1, graduating medical students reported relying more on forecast emotional intensity than frequency or duration to decide how to rank residency programs as part of the process of being matched with a program. Similarly, participants reported relying more on forecast emotional intensity than frequency or duration to decide which universities to apply to (Study 2), which presidential candidate to vote for (Study 3), and whether to travel as Covid-19 rates declined (Study 4). Studies 1 and 3 also assessed forecasting accuracy. Participants forecast emotional intensity more accurately than frequency or duration. People make better decisions when they can anticipate the future. Thus, people's reports of relying on forecast emotional intensity to guide life-changing decisions, and the greater accuracy of these forecasts, provide important new evidence of the adaptive value of affective forecasts.

Optimistic expectations have benefits for effort and emotion with little cost.

The present investigation examined the potential benefits and costs of optimistic expectations about future events through the lens of error management theory (EMT). Decades of evidence have shown that optimism about the likelihood of future events is pervasive and difficult to correct. From an EMT perspective, this perpetuation of inaccurate beliefs is possible because optimism offers benefits greater than the costs. The present investigation examined this possibility for controllable important life events with a known time at which they would occur. College students taking their first exam (n = 1,061) and medical students being matched with residency placements (n = 182) reported their expectations and emotions weeks before the event and their responses after they knew the outcome of the event. Optimistic expectations predicted the quality of effort investment before an event occurred-students were more satisfied with their studying, medical students were more satisfied with their decision making, and optimism predicted better performance. Optimistic expectations also predicted less emotional distress before the event. There was no evidence that optimistic expectations related to longer-term greater distress when participants experienced an unexpected negative outcome; the valence of the outcome itself predicted distress. These results are consistent with the EMT-derived hypothesis that optimistic expectations have benefits for effort and emotion before an event occurs, with little cost after the outcome occurs. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicted and remembered emotion: tomorrow's vividness trumps yesterday's accuracy.

People rely on predicted and remembered emotion to guide important decisions. But how much can they trust their mental representations of emotion to be accurate, and how much do they trust them? In this investigation, participants (N = 957) reported their predicted, experienced, and remembered emotional response to the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. They also reported how accurate and vivid they perceived their predictions and memories to be, and the importance of the election. Participants remembered their emotional responses more accurately than they predicted them. But, strikingly, they perceived their predictions to be more accurate than their memories. This perception was explained by the greater importance and vividness of anticipated versus remembered experience. We also assessed whether individuals with Highly Superior Autobiographical Memory for personal and public events (N = 33) showed superior ability to predict or remember their emotional responses to events. They did not and, even for this group, predicting emotion was a more intense experience than remembering emotion. These findings reveal asymmetries in the phenomenological experience of predicting and remembering emotion. The vividness of predicted emotion serves as a powerful subjective signal of accuracy even when predictions turn out to be wrong.

When and why people misestimate future feelings: Identifying strengths and weaknesses in affective forecasting.

People try to make decisions that will improve their lives and make them happy, and to do so, they rely on affective forecasts-predictions about how future outcomes will make them feel. Decades of research suggest that people are poor at predicting how they will feel and that they commonly overestimate the impact that future events will have on their emotions. Recent work reveals considerable variability in forecasting accuracy. This investigation tested a model of affective forecasting that captures this variability in bias by differentiating emotional intensity, emotional frequency, and mood. Two field studies examined affective forecasting in college students receiving grades on a midterm exam (Study 1, N = 643), and U.S. citizens after the outcome of the 2016 presidential election (Study 2, N = 706). Consistent with the proposed model, participants were more accurate in forecasting the intensity of their emotion and less accurate in forecasting emotion frequency and mood. Overestimation of the effect of the event on mood increased over time since the event. Three experimental studies examined mechanisms that contribute to differential forecasting accuracy. Biases in forecasting intensity were caused by changes in perceived event importance; biases in forecasting frequency of emotion were caused by changes in the frequency of thinking about the event. This is the first direct evidence mapping out strengths and weaknesses for different types of affective forecasts and the factors that contribute to this pattern. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Changes in subjective well-being following the U.S. Presidential election of 2016.

This investigation examined predictors of changes over time in subjective well-being (SWB) after the 2016 United States presidential election. Two indicators of SWB-general happiness and life satisfaction-were assessed three weeks before the election, the week of the election, three weeks later, and six months later. Partisanship predicted both indicators of SWB, with Trump supporters experiencing improved SWB after the election, Clinton supporters experiencing worsened SWB after the election, and those who viewed both candidates as bad also experiencing worsened SWB after the election. The impact of the election on SWB decreased over time, with all participants returning to baseline life satisfaction six months after the election. Trump supporters and those who viewed both candidates as bad for the country also returned to baseline general happiness six months after the election. Clinton supporters, in contrast, remained below baseline levels of general happiness six months after the election. Moral and political values, and exposure to media inconsistent with those values, predicted lasting change in subjective well-being. National events can affect how people perceive the overall quality of their lives and these effects are exacerbated when moral and political values are involved. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Barriers to 3-Hydroxypropionate-Dependent Growth of Rhodobacter sphaeroides by Distinct Disruptions of the Ethylmalonyl Coenzyme A Pathway.

Rhodobacter sphaeroides is able to use 3-hydroxypropionate as the sole carbon source through the reductive conversion of 3-hydroxypropionate to propionyl coenzyme A (propionyl-CoA). The ethylmalonyl-CoA pathway is not required in this process because a crotonyl-CoA carboxylase/reductase (Ccr)-negative mutant still grew with 3-hydroxypropionate. Much to our surprise, a mutant defective for another specific enzyme of the ethylmalonyl-CoA pathway, mesaconyl-CoA hydratase (Mch), lost its ability for 3-hydroxypropionate-dependent growth. Interestingly, the Mch-deficient mutant was rescued either by introducing an additional ccr in-frame deletion that resulted in the blockage of an earlier step in the pathway or by heterologously expressing a gene encoding a thioesterase (YciA) that can act on several CoA intermediates of the ethylmalonyl-CoA pathway. The mch mutant expressing yciA metabolized only less than half of the 3-hydroxypropionate supplied, and over 50% of that carbon was recovered in the spent medium as free acids of the key intermediates mesaconyl-CoA and methylsuccinyl-CoA. A gradual increase in growth inhibition due to the blockage of consecutive steps of the ethylmalonyl-CoA pathway by gene deletions suggests that the growth defects were due to the titration of free CoA and depletion of the CoA pool in the cell rather than to detrimental effects arising from the accumulation of a specific metabolite. Recovery of carbon in mesaconate for the wild-type strain expressing yciA demonstrated that carbon flux through the ethylmalonyl-CoA pathway occurs during 3-hydroxypropionate-dependent growth. A possible role of the ethylmalonyl-CoA pathway is proposed that functions outside its known role in providing tricarboxylic acid intermediates during acetyl-CoA assimilation.IMPORTANCE Mutant analysis is an important tool utilized in metabolic studies to understand which role a particular pathway might have under certain growth conditions for a given organism. The importance of the enzyme and of the pathway in which it participates is discretely linked to the resulting phenotype observed after mutation of the corresponding gene. This work highlights the possibility of incorrectly interpreting mutant growth results that are based on studying a single unit (gene and encoded enzyme) of a metabolic pathway rather than the pathway in its entirety. This work also hints at the possibility of using an enzyme as a drug target although the enzyme may participate in a nonessential pathway and still be detrimental to the cell when inhibited.