Impact of CoronaVac on Covid-19 outcomes of elderly adults in a large and socially unequal Brazilian city: A target trial emulation study.

BACKGROUND: Although CoronaVac was the only Covid-19 vaccine adopted in the first months of the Brazilian vaccination campaign, randomized clinical trials to evaluate its efficacy in elderly adults were limited. In this study, we use routinely collected surveillance and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and testing data comprising the population of the fifth largest city of Brazil to evaluate the effectiveness of CoronaVac in adults 60+ years old against severe outcomes. METHODS: Using large observational databases on vaccination and surveillance data from the city of Fortaleza, Brazil, we defined a retrospective cohort including 324,302 eligible adults aged ≥60 years to evaluate the effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccine. The cohort included individuals vaccinated between January 21, 2021, and August 31, 2021, who were matched with unvaccinated persons at the time of rollout following a 1:1 ratio according to baseline covariates of age, sex, and Human Development Index of the neighborhood of residence. Only Covid-19-related severe outcomes were included in the analysis: hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. Vaccine effectiveness for each outcome was calculated by using the risk ratio between the two groups, with the risk obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator. RESULTS: We obtained 62,643 matched pairs for assessing the effectiveness of the two-dose regimen of CoronaVac. The demographic profile of the matched population was statistically representative of the population of Fortaleza. Using the cumulative incidence as the risk associated with each group, starting at day 14 since the receipt of the second dose, we found an 82.3 % (95 % CI 66.3-93.9) effectiveness against Covid-19-related death, 68.4 % (95 % CI 42.3-86.4) against ICU admission, and 55.8 % (95 % CI 42.7-68.3) against hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that, despite critical delays in vaccine delivery and limited evidence in efficacy trial estimates, CoronaVac contributed to preventing deaths and severe morbidity due to Covid-19 in elderly adults.

Eye-tracking as a proxy for coherence and complexity of texts.

Reading is a complex cognitive process that involves primary oculomotor function and high-level activities like attention focus and language processing. When we read, our eyes move by primary physiological functions while responding to language-processing demands. In fact, the eyes perform discontinuous twofold movements, namely, successive long jumps (saccades) interposed by small steps (fixations) in which the gaze "scans" confined locations. It is only through the fixations that information is effectively captured for brain processing. Since individuals can express similar as well as entirely different opinions about a given text, it is therefore expected that the form, content and style of a text could induce different eye-movement patterns among people. A question that naturally arises is whether these individuals' behaviours are correlated, so that eye-tracking while reading can be used as a proxy for text subjective properties. Here we perform a set of eye-tracking experiments with a group of individuals reading different types of texts, including children stories, random word generated texts and excerpts from literature work. In parallel, an extensive Internet survey was conducted for categorizing these texts in terms of their complexity and coherence, considering a large number of individuals selected according to different ages, gender and levels of education. The computational analysis of the fixation maps obtained from the gaze trajectories of the subjects for a given text reveals that the average "magnetization" of the fixation configurations correlates strongly with their complexity observed in the survey. Moreover, we perform a thermodynamic analysis using the Maximum-Entropy Model and find that coherent texts were closer to their corresponding "critical points" than non-coherent ones, as computed from the Pairwise Maximum-Entropy method, suggesting that different texts may induce distinct cohesive reading activities.

Tracing contacts to evaluate the transmission of COVID-19 from highly exposed individuals in public transportation.

We investigate, through a data-driven contact tracing model, the transmission of COVID-19 inside buses during distinct phases of the pandemic in a large Brazilian city. From this microscopic approach, we recover the networks of close contacts within consecutive time windows. A longitudinal comparison is then performed by upscaling the traced contacts with the transmission computed from a mean-field compartmental model for the entire city. Our results show that the effective reproduction numbers inside the buses, [Formula: see text], and in the city, [Formula: see text], followed a compatible behavior during the first wave of the local outbreak. Moreover, by distinguishing the close contacts of healthcare workers in the buses, we discovered that their transmission, [Formula: see text], during the same period, was systematically higher than [Formula: see text]. This result reinforces the need for special public transportation policies for highly exposed groups of people.

Morphological Transition between Patterns Formed by Threads of Magnetic Beads.

Magnetic beads attract each other, forming chains. We push such chains into an inclined Hele-Shaw cell and discover that they spontaneously form self-similar patterns. Depending on the angle of inclination of the cell, two completely different situations emerge; namely, above the static friction angle the patterns resemble the stacking of a rope and below they look similar to a fortress from above. Moreover, locally the first pattern forms a square lattice, while the second pattern exhibits triangular symmetry. For both patterns, the size distributions of enclosed areas follow power laws. We characterize the morphological transition between the two patterns experimentally and numerically and explain the change in polarization as a competition between friction-induced buckling and gravity.

Time evolution of the behaviour of Brazilian legislative Representatives using a complex network approach.

The follow up of Representative behavior after elections is imperative for a democratic Representative system, at the very least to punish betrayal with no re-election. Our goal was to show how to follow Representatives' and how to show behavior in real situations and observe trends in political crises including the onset of game changing political instabilities. We used correlation and correlation distance matrices of Brazilian Representative votes during four presidential terms. Re-ordering these matrices with Minimal Spanning Trees displays the dynamical formation of clusters for the sixteen year period, which includes one Presidential impeachment. The reordered matrices, colored by correlation strength and by the parties clearly show the origin of observed clusters and their evolution over time. When large clusters provide government support cluster breaks, political instability arises, which could lead to an impeachment, a trend we observed three years before the Brazilian President was impeached. We believe this method could be applied to foresee other political storms.

General continuum approach for dissipative systems of repulsive particles.

We propose a general coarse-graining method to derive a continuity equation that describes any dissipative system of repulsive particles interacting through short-ranged potentials. In our approach, the effect of particle-particle correlations is incorporated to the overall balance of energy, and a nonlinear diffusion equation is obtained to represent the overdamped dynamics. In particular, when the repulsive interaction potential is a short-ranged power law, our approach reveals a distinctive correspondence between particle-particle energy and the generalized thermostatistics of Tsallis for any nonpositive value of the entropic index q. Our methodology can also be applied to microscopic models of superconducting vortices and complex plasma, where particle-particle correlations are pronounced at low concentrations. The resulting continuum descriptions provide elucidating and useful insights on the microdynamical behavior of these physical systems. The consistency of our approach is demonstrated by comparison with molecular dynamics simulations.