Misrepresenting Pragmatism: Response to Greenhalgh and Engebretsen.

The Covid-19 pandemic has engendered intense public debate about the nature and place of a "science-driven" approach to decision making in such contexts, with contributions by a range of scientific authors critical of actual policy decisions. In a recent article in this journal, Greenhalgh and Engebretsen (TGEE) propose that science-driven policymaking should be abandoned in favour of a "Pragmatist turn". We critically analyze their portrayal of Pragmatism and demonstrate that their characterization is historically inaccurate, particularly focusing on the neglect of its strong commitment to scientific method and related evidential requirements. We conclude that Pragmatism's caution and respect for standards of evidence are a valuable corrective to the pandemics of fear and action that bias responses to any pandemic infection.

No secondary impact of ivermectin mass drug administration for onchocerciasis elimination on the prevalence of scabies in northwestern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) is among the five major strategies that are currently in use to control, eliminate or eradicate Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). Optimising MDA to control multiple NTDs maximises impact. The objective of this study is to estimate the secondary impact of ivermectin MDA for onchocerciasis on the prevalence of scabies. METHODS: This quasi-experimental study was conducted in Ayu Guagusa district, northwestern Ethiopia. Scabies prevalence was estimated in surveys before the MDA, at 6 and 12 months afterwards. The sample size was 1437 people from a panel of 381 randomly selected study households. Multistage sampling was employed in randomly selecting six kebeles (the lowest administrative unit) with respective gotes (small villages) and households. All members of the selected households were invited to participate in the study and participants who were available in all three surveys formed a cohort. RESULTS: Scabies prevalence was similar prior to the MDA (13.4%, 95% CI 11.7 to 15.2%) and 6 months after (11.7%, 95% CI 10.1 to 13.2%) but was substantially greater at 12 months (22.1%, 95% CI 20.1 to 24.1%). The 6-month incidence and disappearance rates were 10.8% (95% CI 8.8 to 13.2%) and 82.6% (95% CI 75.0 to 88.6%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Ivermectin MDA for onchocerciasis was not observed to have a secondary impact on the prevalence of scabies over the follow-up period of 12 months.

Scabies outbreak management in refugee/migrant camps in Europe 2014-2017: a retrospective qualitative interview study of healthcare staff experiences and perspectives.

OBJECTIVES: Provide insights into the experiences and perspectives of healthcare staff who treated scabies or managed outbreaks in formal and informal refugee/migrant camps in Europe 2014-2017. DESIGN: Retrospective qualitative study using semistructured telephone interviews and framework analysis. Recruitment was done primarily through online networks of healthcare staff involved in medical care in refugee/migrant settings. SETTING: Formal and informal refugee/migrant camps in Europe 2014-2017. PARTICIPANTS: Twelve participants (four doctors, four nurses, three allied health workers, one medical student) who had worked in camps (six in informal camps, nine in formal ones) across 15 locations within seven European countries (Greece, Serbia, Macedonia, Turkey, France, the Netherlands, Belgium). RESULTS: Participants reported that in camps they had worked, scabies diagnosis was primarily clinical (without dermatoscopy), and treatment and outbreak management varied highly. Seven stated scabicides were provided, while five reported that only symptomatic management was offered. They described camps as difficult places to work, with poor living standards for residents. Key perceived barriers to scabies control were (1) lack of water, sanitation and hygiene, specifically: absent/limited showers (difficult to wash off topical scabicides), and inability to wash clothes and bedding (may have increased transmission/reinfestation); (2) social factors: language, stigma, treatment non-compliance and mobility (interfering with contact tracing and follow-up treatments); (3) healthcare factors: scabicide shortages and diversity, lack of examination privacy and staff inexperience; (4) organisational factors: overcrowding, ineffective interorganisational coordination, and lack of support and maltreatment by state authorities (eg, not providing basic facilities, obstruction of self-care by camp residents and non-governmental organisation (NGO) aid). CONCLUSIONS: We recommend development of accessible scabies guidelines for camps, use of consensus diagnostic criteria and oral ivermectin mass treatments. In addition, as much of the work described was by small, volunteer-staffed NGOs, we in the wider healthcare community should reflect how to better support such initiatives and those they serve.

Shaping care home COVID-19 testing policy: a protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial of asymptomatic testing compared with standard care in care home staff (VIVALDI-CT).

INTRODUCTION: Care home residents have experienced significant morbidity, mortality and disruption following outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Regular SARS-CoV-2 testing of care home staff was introduced to reduce transmission of infection, but it is unclear whether this remains beneficial. This trial aims to investigate whether use of regular asymptomatic staff testing, alongside funding to reimburse sick pay for those who test positive and meet costs of employing agency staff, is a feasible and effective strategy to reduce COVID-19 impact in care homes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The VIVALDI-Clinical Trial is a multicentre, open-label, cluster randomised controlled, phase III/IV superiority trial in up to 280 residential and/or nursing homes in England providing care to adults aged >65 years. All regular and agency staff will be enrolled, excepting those who opt out. Homes will be randomised to the intervention arm (twice weekly asymptomatic staff testing for SARS-CoV-2) or the control arm (current national testing guidance). Staff who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 will self-isolate and receive sick pay. Care providers will be reimbursed for costs associated with employing temporary staff to backfill for absence arising directly from the trial.The trial will be delivered by a multidisciplinary research team through a series of five work packages.The primary outcome is the incidence of COVID-19-related hospital admissions in residents. Secondary outcomes include the number and duration of outbreaks and home closures. Health economic and modelling analyses will investigate the cost-effectiveness and cost consequences of the testing intervention. A process evaluation using qualitative interviews will be conducted to understand intervention roll out and identify areas for optimisation to inform future intervention scale-up, should the testing approach prove effective and cost-effective. Stakeholder engagement will be undertaken to enable the sector to plan for results and their implications and to coproduce recommendations on the use of testing for policy-makers. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the London-Bromley Research Ethics Committee (reference number 22/LO/0846) and the Health Research Authority (22/CAG/0165). The results of the trial will be disseminated regardless of the direction of effect. The publication of the results will comply with a trial-specific publication policy and will include submission to open access journals. A lay summary of the results will also be produced to disseminate the results to participants. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN13296529.

Health service needs and perspectives of a rainforest conserving community in Papua New Guinea's Ramu lowlands: a combined clinical and rapid anthropological assessment with parallel treatment of urgent cases.

OBJECTIVES: Determine community needs and perspectives as part of planning health service incorporation into Wanang Conservation Area, in support of locally driven sustainable development. DESIGN: Clinical and rapid anthropological assessment (individual primary care assessments, key informant (KI) interviews, focus groups (FGs), ethnography) with treatment of urgent cases. SETTING: Wanang (pop. c189), a rainforest community in Madang province, Papua New Guinea. PARTICIPANTS: 129 villagers provided medical histories (54 females (f), 75 males (m); median 19 years, range 1 month to 73 years), 113 had clinical assessments (51f, 62m; median 18 years, range 1 month to 73 years). 26 ≥18 years participated in sex-stratified and age-stratified FGs (f<40 years; m<40 years; f>40 years; m>40 years). Five KIs were interviewed (1f, 4m). Daily ethnographic fieldnotes were recorded. RESULTS: Of 113 examined, 11 were 'well' (a clinical impression based on declarations of no current illness, medical histories, conversation, no observed disease signs), 62 (30f, 32m) were treated urgently, 31 referred (15f, 16m), indicating considerable unmet need. FGs top-4 ranked health issues concorded with KI views, medical histories and clinical examinations. For example, ethnoclassifications of three ((A) 'malaria', (B) 'sotwin', (C) 'grile') translated to the five biomedical conditions diagnosed most ((A) malaria, 9 villagers; (B) upper respiratory infection, 25; lower respiratory infection, 10; tuberculosis, 9; (C) tinea imbricata, 15) and were highly represented in declared medical histories ((A) 75 participants, (B) 23, (C) 35). However, 29.2% of diagnoses (49/168) were limited to one or two people. Treatment approaches included plant medicines, stored pharmaceuticals, occasionally rituals. Travel to hospital/pharmacy was sometimes undertaken for severe/refractory disease. Service barriers included: no health patrols/accessible aid post, remote hospital, unfamiliarity with institutions and medicine costs. Service introduction priorities were: aid post, vaccinations, transport, perinatal/birth care and family planning. CONCLUSIONS: This study enabled service planning and demonstrated a need sufficient to acquire funding to establish primary care. In doing so, it aided Wanang's community to develop sustainably, without sacrificing their forest home.

Scabies in the Amhara region of northern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study of prevalence, determinants, clinical presentation and community knowledge.

BACKGROUND: The WHO aims to prevent, eliminate or control neglected tropical diseases, including scabies, by 2030. However, limited epidemiological data presented a challenge to control efforts, especially in high burden countries. There was a major scabies outbreak in northern Ethiopia starting in 2015 and prevalence has since increased across much of the country. OBJECTIVE: To estimate scabies prevalence, identify its predictors, and assess community perception of, and knowledge about, the infestation. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. STUDY SETTING: Ayu Guagusa district, Amhara region, northern Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: 1437 people who were members of 381 randomly selected households participated in the study. Five trained mid-level health workers clinically diagnosed people with scabies. OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinically diagnosed scabies infestation. DATA ANALYSIS: Multi-level logistic regression models were fitted to adjust for individual and household-level confounding variables, and identify predictors of scabies infestation. RESULTS: Scabies prevalence was 13.4% (95% CI 11.8 to 15.5). Households of more than five people (adjusted OR (aOR)=3.5, 95% CI 1.2 to 10.2) were associated with increased odds of developing scabies, however, females had lower odds (aOR=0.5 95% CI 0.3 to 0.8). Scabietic lesions most frequently involved the trunk (62.0%), and vesicles were the most common types of lesions (67.7%). Two-thirds of adult study participants had heard about scabies and most obtained scabies related information from informal sources. Only 32% of cases sought care for scabies from any source. CONCLUSION: Scabies prevalence was high, signifying the need for community-based control interventions. Host density and sex were important predictors of scabies. Despite the favourable attitude toward the effectiveness of scabies treatment, healthcare seeking was low.

Measuring quality of life in care homes when self-report is challenging: the construct validity, structural characteristics and internal consistency of the mixed-methods adult social care outcomes toolkit.

INTRODUCTION: The adult social care outcomes toolkit (ASCOT) measures social care-related quality of life (SCRQoL) using self-completion questionnaires and interviews. Many care home residents find such methods inaccessible, leading to a reliance on proxy-reporting. This study aimed to establish the psychometric properties of the mixed-methods toolkit [ASCOT-Care Homes, 4 outcome (CH4)] for measuring SCRQoL when residents cannot self-report. METHODS: Two cross-sectional, mixed-methods studies were undertaken in care homes for older people in England between 2015 and 2020. We used the ASCOT-CH4 (observation, and interviews with residents and proxies) to collect information about SCRQoL and collected additional data on residents' needs and characteristics, and variables hypothesised to be related to SCRQoL.Hypothesis testing was applied to establish construct validity, Cronbach's alpha for internal consistency and exploratory factor analysis for structural validity. RESULTS: The combined dataset included 475 residents from 54 care homes (34 nursing, 20 residential). Half had a diagnosis of dementia. Less than a third of residents were able to complete an ASCOT interview. Observations and proxy interviews informed researcher ratings, meaning there were no missing ASCOT-CH4 scores. ASCOT-CH4 was found to be a weak unidimensional scale, consistent with other ASCOT measures, with acceptable internal consistency (α = 0.77, 8 items). Construct validity was supported by the findings. CONCLUSIONS: The ASCOT-CH4 is an alternative to conventional proxy-questionnaires for measuring the SCRQoL of care home residents, with good psychometric properties. A limitation is that users need a range of data collection skills. Future research should explore whether findings are replicable when data are collected by other researchers.

Health and wellbeing of Nepalese migrant workers in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: A mixed-methods study.

Introduction: Migrant workers support low- and middle-income economies through remittances, often bearing considerable health risks with long-term consequences. This study aims to understand the health and wellbeing issues of Nepalese migrant workers in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, a major destination for low-skilled Nepalese workers. Methodology: We conducted a mixed-methods study in Dhading district of Nepal. A pilot survey was carried out with returnee migrants from GCC countries to understand key health and wellbeing issues faced by workers. In addition, in-depth interviews were conducted with a subset of these returnee migrants and their families, and related stakeholders. These aimed to understand broader societal and policy implications in relation to labour migration. Quantitative data from the survey were analysed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis was used for qualitative interviews. Results: 60 returnee migrants (58 males, 2 females) took part in the survey (response rate, 100%). Median age of the survey participants was 34 (IQR, 9) years and 68% had completed school level education. Returnee migrants reported suffering from various physical and mental health issues during their stay in GCC countries including cold/fever (42%), mental health problems (25%) and verbal abuse (35%). 20 participants took part in the qualitative study:10 returnee migrants (8 males, 2 females), four family members (female spouses) and six key stakeholders working in organizations related to international migration. Interview participants reported severe weather conditions resulting in physical health problems (e.g. pneumonia, dehydration and kidney disease) as well as mental health issues (including anxiety, loneliness and depression). Participants raised concerns about the usefulness and appropriateness of pre-departure training, and the authenticity of medical tests and reports in Nepal. Female migrants reported facing stigma after returning home from abroad. Language difficulties, alongside issues related to payment, insurance and support at work were cited as barriers to accessing healthcare in destination countries. Conclusion: Our study shows that Nepalese migrant workers experience severe weather conditions and suffer from various physical and mental health issues, including workplace abuse and exploitation. The study highlights an urgent need for strategies to enforce compulsory relevant pre-departure orientation and appropriate medical screening in Nepal, and fair employment terms and full health insurance coverage in destination countries. Greater collaboration between the Nepalese government and GCC countries is needed to ensure necessary legislation and regulatory frameworks are in place to safeguard the health and wellbeing of migrant workers.

Understanding the barriers and facilitators to using self-sampling packs for sexually transmitted infections and blood-borne viruses: Thematic analyses for intervention optimization.

PURPOSE: Self-sampling packs for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and blood-borne viruses (BBVs) are widely offered. There are ongoing problems with reach and sample return rates. The packs have arisen without formal intervention development. This paper illustrates initial steps of an intervention optimization process to improve the packs. METHODS: Eleven focus groups and seven interviews were conducted with convenience samples of patients recruited from sexual health clinics and members of the public (n = 56). To enable intervention optimization, firstly, we conducted an inductive appraisal of the behavioural system of using the pack to understand meaningful constituent behavioural domains. Subsequently, we conducted a thematic analysis of barriers and facilitators to enacting each sequential behavioural domain in preparation for future behaviour change wheel analysis. RESULTS: Overall, we found that self-sampling packs were acceptable. Participants understood their overall logic and value as a pragmatic intervention that simultaneously facilitated and reduced barriers to individuals being tested for STIs and BBVs. However, at the level of each behavioural domain (e.g., reading leaflets, returning samples) problems with the pack were identified, as well as a series of potential optimizations, which might widen the reach of self-sampling and increase the return of viable samples. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provides an example of a pragmatic approach to optimizing an intervention already widely offered globally. The paper demonstrates the added value health psychological approaches offer; conceptualizing interventions in behavioural terms, pinpointing granular behavioural problems amenable for systematic further improvement.

Accelerated partner therapy contact tracing for people with chlamydia (LUSTRUM): a crossover cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Accelerated partner therapy has shown promise in improving contact tracing. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of accelerated partner therapy in addition to usual contact tracing compared with usual practice alone in heterosexual people with chlamydia, using a biological primary outcome measure. METHODS: We did a crossover cluster-randomised controlled trial in 17 sexual health clinics (clusters) across England and Scotland. Participants were heterosexual people aged 16 years or older with a positive Chlamydia trachomatis test result, or a clinical diagnosis of conditions for which presumptive chlamydia treatment and contact tracing are initially provided, and their sexual partners. We allocated phase order for clinics through random permutation within strata. In the control phase, participants received usual care (health-care professional advised the index patient to tell their sexual partner[s] to attend clinic for sexually transmitted infection screening and treatment). In the intervention phase, participants received usual care plus an offer of accelerated partner therapy (health-care professional assessed sexual partner[s] by telephone, then sent or gave the index patient antibiotics and sexually transmitted infection self-sampling kits for their sexual partner[s]). Each phase lasted 6 months, with a 2-week washout at crossover. The primary outcome was the proportion of index patients with a positive C trachomatis test result at 12-24 weeks after contact tracing consultation. Secondary outcomes included proportions and types of sexual partners treated. Analysis was done by intention-to-treat, fitting random effects logistic regression models. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, 15996256. FINDINGS: Between Oct 24, 2018, and Nov 17, 2019, 1536 patients were enrolled in the intervention phase and 1724 were enrolled in the control phase. All clinics completed both phases. In total, 4807 sexual partners were reported, of whom 1636 (34%) were steady established partners. Overall, 293 (19%) of 1536 index patients chose accelerated partner therapy for a total of 305 partners, of whom 248 (81%) accepted. 666 (43%) of 1536 index patients in the intervention phase and 800 (46%) of 1724 in the control phase were tested for C trachomatis at 12-24 weeks after contact tracing consultation; 31 (4·7%) in the intervention phase and 53 (6·6%) in the control phase had a positive C trachomatis test result (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·41 to 1·04]; p=0·071; marginal absolute difference -2·2% [95% CI -4·7 to 0·3]). Among index patients with treatment status recorded, 775 (88·0%) of 881 patients in the intervention phase and 760 (84·6%) of 898 in the control phase had at least one treated sexual partner at 2-4 weeks after contact tracing consultation (adjusted OR 1·27 [95% CI 0·96 to 1·68]; p=0·10; marginal absolute difference 2·7% [95% CI -0·5 to 6·0]). No clinically significant harms were reported. INTERPRETATION: Although the evidence that the intervention reduces repeat infection was not conclusive, the trial results suggest that accelerated partner therapy can be safely offered as a contact tracing option and is also likely to be cost saving. Future research should find ways to increase uptake of accelerated partner therapy and develop alternative interventions for one-off sexual partners. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

COVID-19 health information needs of older adults from ethnic minority groups in the UK: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify the COVID-19 health information needs of older adults from ethnic minority groups in the UK. STUDY DESIGN: A qualitative study using semistructured interviews. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Indian and Nepalese older adults (≥65 years), their families (≥18 years) and healthcare professionals (HCPs) (≥18 years) engaging with these communities. Participants were recruited between July and December 2020 from Kent, Surrey and Sussex through community organisations. RESULTS: 24 participants took part in the study; 13 older adults, 7 family members and 4 HCPs. Thirteen participants were female, and the majority (n=17) spoke a language other than English at home. Older participants mostly lived in multigenerational households, and family and community were key for providing support and communicating about healthcare needs. Participants' knowledge of COVID-19 varied widely; some spoke confidently about the subject, while others had limited information. Language and illiteracy were key barriers to accessing health information. Participants highlighted the need for information in multiple formats and languages, and discussed the importance of culturally appropriate avenues, such as community centres and religious sites, for information dissemination. CONCLUSION: This study, undertaken during the COVID-19 pandemic, provides insight into how health information can be optimised for ethnic minority older adults in terms of content, format and cultural relevance. The study highlights that health information interventions should recognise the intersection between multigenerational living, family structure, and the health and well-being of older adults, and should promote intergenerational discussion.

Using the behaviour change wheel approach to optimize self-sampling packs for sexually transmitted infection and blood borne viruses.

PURPOSE: This paper describes the process of optimizing a widely offered intervention-self-sampling packs for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and blood borne viruses (BBVs). We drew upon the behaviour change wheel (BCW) approach, incorporating the theoretical domains framework (TDF) and the behaviour change technique taxonomy (BCTTv1) to systematically specify potential intervention components that may optimize the packs. METHODS: A BCW analysis built upon prior thematic analyses of qualitative data collected through focus groups and interviews with members of the public and people recruited from sexual health clinics in Glasgow and London (n = 56). Salient barriers and facilitators to specific sequential behavioural domains associated with the wider behavioural system of pack use were subjected to further analyses, coding them in relation to the TDF, the BCW's intervention functions, and finally specifying potential optimisation using behaviour change techniques (BCTs). RESULTS: Our TDF analysis suggested that across the overall behavioural system of pack use, the most important theoretical domains were 'beliefs about consequences' and 'memory, attention and decision-making'. BCW analysis on the overall pack suggested useful intervention functions should focus on 'environmental restructuring', 'persuasion', 'enablement', 'education' and 'modelling'. Specific ways of optimizing the intervention were also described in relation to potentially useful BCTs. CONCLUSIONS: Through a detailed behavioural analysis and the TDF and wider BCW approach built on earlier qualitative work, we provide a systematic approach to optimizing an existing intervention. The approach enabled the specification of highly specific, evidence-based, and theoretically informed recommendations for intervention optimization.

Optimising partner notification outcomes for bacterial sexually transmitted infections: a deliberative process and consensus, United Kingdom, 2019.

Partner notification (PN) is an essential element of sexually transmitted infection (STI) control. It enables identification, treatment and advice for sexual contacts who may benefit from additional preventive interventions such as HIV pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis. PN is most effective in reducing STI transmission when it reaches individuals who are most likely to have an STI and to engage in sexual behaviour that facilitates STI transmission, including having multiple and/or new sex partners. Outcomes of PN practice need to be measurable in order to inform standards. They need to address all five stages in the cascade of care: elicitation of partners, establishing contactable partners, notification, testing and treatment. In the United Kingdom, established outcome measures cover only the first three stages and do not take into account the type of sexual partnership. We report an evidence-based process to develop new PN outcomes and inform standards of care. We undertook a systematic literature review, evaluation of published information on types of sexual partnership and a modified Delphi process to reach consensus. We propose six new PN outcome measures at five stages of the cascade, including stratification by sex partnership type. Our framework for PN outcome measurement has potential to contribute in other domains, including Covid-19 contact tracing.

Going beyond 'regular and casual': development of a classification of sexual partner types to enhance partner notification for STIs.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a classification of sexual partner types for use in partner notification (PN) for STIs. METHODS: A four-step process: (1) an iterative synthesis of five sources of evidence: scoping review of social and health sciences literature on partner types; analysis of relationship types in dating apps; systematic review of PN intervention content; and review of PN guidelines; qualitative interviews with public, patients and health professionals to generate an initial comprehensive classification; (2) multidisciplinary clinical expert consultation to revise the classification; (3) piloting of the revised classification in sexual health clinics during a randomised controlled trial of PN; (4) application of the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to identify index patients' willingness to engage in PN for each partner type. RESULTS: Five main partner types emerged from the evidence synthesis and consultation: 'established partner', 'new partner', 'occasional partner', 'one-off partner' and 'sex worker'. The types differed across several dimensions, including likely perceptions of sexual exclusivity, likelihood of sex reoccurring between index patient and sex partner. Sexual health professionals found the classification easy to operationalise. During the trial, they assigned all 3288 partners described by 2223 index patients to a category. The TDF analysis suggested that the partner types might be associated with different risks of STI reinfection, onward transmission and index patients' engagement with PN. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an evidence-informed, useable classification of five sexual partner types to underpin PN practice and other STI prevention interventions. Analysis of biomedical, psychological and social factors that distinguish different partner types shows how each could warrant a tailored PN approach. This classification could facilitate the use of partner-centred outcomes. Additional studies are needed to determine the utility of the classification to improve measurement of the impact of PN strategies and help focus resources.

How does the sexual, physical and mental health of young adults not in education, employment or training (NEET) compare to workers and students?

BACKGROUND: Syndemic theory highlights the potential for health problems to interact synergistically, compounding impact. Young adults not in education, employment or training (NEET) are more likely to experience disadvantage and poorer general health outcomes. However, there is little research on their sexual health, or the extent to which this clusters with mental and physical health outcomes. METHODS: Analysis of data from 16 to 24 year olds (1729 men, 2140 women) interviewed 2010-12 for Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. Natsal-3 is a national probability sample survey using computer-assisted personal interviewing with computer-assisted self-interviewing. Participants were classified as workers, students or NEET. We used multivariable logistic regression to examine associations between being NEET (relative to worker or student) and risk behaviours and outcomes in physical, sexual and mental health domains. We then examined how risk behaviours and poor health outcomes cluster within and across domains. RESULTS: 15% men and 20% women were NEET; 36% men and 32% women were workers; and 49% men and 48% women were students. Young people who were NEET were more likely to report smoking and drug use (men) than other young people. There were few differences in sexual health, although NEETs were more likely to report condomless sex, and NEET women, unplanned pregnancy (past year). Risk behaviours clustered more within and across domains for NEET men. Among NEET women, poor health outcomes clustered across mental, physical and sexual health domains. CONCLUSIONS: Harmful health behaviours (men) and poor health outcomes (women) clustered more in those who are NEET. This points to a possible syndemic effect of NEET status on general ill health, especially for women. Our paper is novel in highlighting that elevated risk pertains to sexual as well as mental and physical health.

Automated detection of patients with dementia whose symptoms have been identified in primary care but have no formal diagnosis: a retrospective case-control study using electronic primary care records.

OBJECTIVES: UK statistics suggest only two-thirds of patients with dementia get a diagnosis recorded in primary care. General practitioners (GPs) report barriers to formally diagnosing dementia, so some patients may be known by GPs to have dementia but may be missing a diagnosis in their patient record. We aimed to produce a method to identify these 'known but unlabelled' patients with dementia using data from primary care patient records. DESIGN: Retrospective case-control study using routinely collected primary care patient records from Clinical Practice Research Datalink. SETTING: UK general practice. PARTICIPANTS: English patients aged >65 years, with a coded diagnosis of dementia recorded in 2000-2012 (cases), matched 1:1 with patients with no diagnosis code for dementia (controls). INTERVENTIONS: Eight coded and nine keyword concepts indicating symptoms, screening tests, referrals and care for dementia recorded in the 5 years before diagnosis. We trialled machine learning classifiers to discriminate between cases and controls (logistic regression, naïve Bayes, random forest). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: The outcome variable was dementia diagnosis code; the accuracy of classifiers was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); the order of features contributing to discrimination was examined. RESULTS: 93 426 patients were included; the median age was 83 years (64.8% women). Three classifiers achieved high discrimination and performed very similarly. AUCs were 0.87-0.90 with coded variables, rising to 0.90-0.94 with keywords added. Feature prioritisation was different for each classifier; commonly prioritised features were Alzheimer's prescription, dementia annual review, memory loss and dementia keywords. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to detect patients with dementia who are known to GPs but unlabelled with a diagnostic code, with a high degree of accuracy in electronic primary care record data. Using keywords from clinic notes and letters improves accuracy compared with coded data alone. This approach could improve identification of dementia cases for record-keeping, service planning and delivery of good quality care.

Performance of a tool to identify different types of self-reported sexual risk among women attending a contraception and sexual health clinic: results of a cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical prediction rule (CPR) using psychosocial questions was previously derived to target sexual healthcare in general practice by identifying women at risk of unintended pregnancy (UIP) and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). This psychosocial CPR may help target resources within contraception and sexual health (CASH) services. This study investigated how well it predicted recent self-reported risk of UIP and STI acquisition among women attending a CASH clinic. METHODS: Female patients aged 16-44 years attending a CASH clinic in South-East England were offered a questionnaire on arrival. This comprised psychosocial questions, and others addressing three sexual risks: (1) two or more male sexual partners in the last year (2+P), (2) risk of STI acquisition through most recent partner and (3) risk of UIP in the last 6 months. A CPR score was calculated for each participant and cross-tabulated against self-report of each sexual risk to estimate CPR sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: The psychosocial questions predicting 2+P had sensitivity 83.2% (95% CI 79.3% to 86.5%) and specificity 56.1% (95% CI 51.3%-60.6%). Those predicting combined 2+P and/or risk of STI acquisition through most recent partner had a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI 85.7%-91.8%) and specificity of 43.7% (95% CI 39.0%-48.5%). Questions predicting risk of UIP in the last 6 months had a sensitivity of 82.5% (95% CI 78.6%-86.0%) and specificity of 48.3% (95% CI 43.4%-53.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The CPR demonstrated good sensitivity but low specificity, so may be suited to triaging or stratifying which interventions to offer CASH patients and by which mode (eg, online vs face-to-face). Further investigation of causal links between psychosocial factors and sexual risk is warranted to support development of psychosocial interventions for this patient group.