Patterns and trends in melanoma mortality in Spain (1999-2022).

AIM: To examine melanoma mortality trends in Spanish Autonomous Communities from 1999 to 2022, focusing on gender and age differences. METHODS: Data from the National Statistics Institute were used to calculate age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs). Joinpoint regression identified trend changes. RESULTS: Melanoma mortality varied significantly by region, gender, and age. Eastern Spain had higher male mortality, while western regions had lower rates. Asturias had higher female mortality, with lower rates in Andalusia, Extremadura, and Castilla-La Mancha. Men generally exhibited higher ASMRs than women, with variations across regions. While ASMRs remained stable in most areas, Madrid experienced a notable decline (AAPC: - 1.3%). A national trend reversal occurred in 2014 (AAPC: - 1.3%). For individuals aged 45-74 years, Catalonia saw a significant decrease (AAPC: - 1.1%, p < 0.05), whereas Andalusia experienced an increase (APC: 2.1% since 2007). Nationally, ASMRs for this age group declined (AAPC: - 0.7%). Among those aged 75 years and over, ASMRs varied considerably, with increases observed in Andalusia and Aragon. Nationally, male ASMRs rose (AAPC: 1.6% per year), while female rates were stable. Regional disparities were evident, with higher female mortality in the Balearic Islands and fluctuating rates in the Community of Madrid (an increase followed by a decrease after 2015). The gender gap in mortality varied across regions, with some areas showing a narrowing gap and others widening disparities. CONCLUSION: Continuous monitoring of melanoma mortality, especially among men and older adults, is crucial. Public health efforts should address regional disparities, improve early detection, and enhance treatment access to optimize outcomes nationwide.

Comprehensive analysis of multiple sclerosis hospitalization trends in Spain (1998-2022).

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the trends in MS hospitalization rates in Spain (1998-2022) considering age, period, and birth cohort (A-P-C) effects. METHODS: This retrospective study used data on MS hospitalizations from the Spanish National Health System Minimum Basic Data Set (CMBD). Age-Standardized Hospitalization Rates (ASHRs) and Joinpoint analysis were used to assess trends. A-P-C analysis was performed to estimate age-specific rates, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: From 1998 to 2022, MS hospital admissions in Spain declined annually by -2.1 %, with women showing a slightly greater decrease (-2.3 %) than men (-1.7 %). Joinpoint analysis revealed non-parallel trends, with three inflection points indicating distinct periods of stabilization and decline. ASHR showed an overall decrease, with -2.0 % for men and -2.2 % for women annually. Risk of hospitalization peaked in the 25-29-year age group for men and 30-34-year age group for women, declining with age. Women consistently had higher risk ratios across age groups. Cohort analysis showed periods of stabilization and decline in MS hospitalization risk, aligning with joinpoint analysis findings. Risk increased for cohorts born in the early 20th century, peaking around 1938, followed by a progressive decline in later cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an aging population, MS hospitalization rates in Spain decreased. The risk of hospitalization for MS is affected by a person's age, the time period they were born in, the historical context of healthcare received, and potentially their sex.

Divergent trends in gastric cancer incidence by sex and age in Spain (1990-2019).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in gastric cancer (GC) incidence in Spain from 1990 to 2019, analysing variations by sex and age. METHOD: GC incidence data from the Global Burden of Disease database and population data from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) with the European population as the reference. Temporal trends by sex and age groups were analyzed using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: While the total number of cases rose slightly, ASIR showed a consistent annual decrease of 1.8% for both men and women. Both sexes experienced this increase in total cases (women: 4,023 to 4,359; men: 6,243 to 6,591). Men consistently had a higher GC burden compared to women (approximately 2.2:1 ratio). Younger adults (<35 years) of both sexes saw significant decreases in ASIR. However, the joinpoint analysis revealed a recent increase in young men (25-34 years) during the period 2014-2019. Adults aged 35-64 showed a decrease in ASIR for both sexes, with a slightly steeper decline in men. Adults over 65 had a similar decrease in ASIR for both sexes, but the joinpoint analysis suggests different patterns within this age group. CONCLUSION: Our study reveals a decline in overall age-adjusted GC incidence in Spain. However, the recent rise observed in young men warrants further investigation to understand potential risk factors in this specific population group.

Identification of regional and sex differences in asthma mortality trends in Spanish Autonomous Communities (1980-2022).

OBJECTIVE: Despite global declines in asthma mortality, regional variations and sex disparities persist. This study investigates asthma mortality trends in Spanish Autonomous Communities (ACs) from 1980 to 2022, analyzing data by sex. METHODS: Data on asthma deaths and population were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics for the study period. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated, and joinpoint regression models were applied to identify trends. RESULTS: Overall, 44,728 asthma deaths occurred, with a steeper decline observed in men (-3.5% per year) compared to women (-0.7% per year). The female-to-male mortality ratio climbed from 0.7 in 1980 to 5.4 in 2016. Both sexes exhibited a significant decrease in ASMRs, with a more substantial decline in males (-6.3%).While all ACs showed a significant decrease in male ASMRs, female trends varied, with significant decreases in 13 ACs and stable trends elsewhere. Joinpoint analysis revealed diverse regional patterns for both sexes, with some ACs experiencing steady declines and others exhibiting periods of slower decline or even stabilization. CONCLUSION: This study identified concerning regional and sex disparities in Spanish ACs' asthma mortality (1980-2022). While male rates declined significantly across all regions, female rates showed variation, with even increases in some ACs. Targeted interventions addressing these disparities and their underlying causes (healthcare access, management practices, etc.) are crucial.

Non-melanoma skin cancer burden in Spain: a nationwide analysis of incidence trends (1990-2019).

Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most -common skin cancer in Spain, yet national data on its incidence trends are limited. To analyse the trends in NMSC incidence in Spain from 1990 to 2019, examining variations by sex, age, period, and birth cohort. Data on NMSC incidence was sourced from the Global Health Data Exchange. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were calculated using the direct method. Trends and average annual percentage changes were identified using Joinpoint regression analysis. Age-period-cohort analysis was applied to assess age-specific, period-specific, and cohort-specific relative risks. From 1990 to 2019, Spain reported 2,302,399 NMSC cases. ASIRs significantly declined post-2005, with men exhibiting slightly higher rates than women. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct trends between genders, with men experiencing an initial rise followed by a decline, while women exhibited periods of increase interspersed with decline. APC analysis showed a net decrease in age-adjusted NMSC rates for both sexes. Local drift analysis showed a downward trend in most age groups, indicating a broad decrease at the population level. However, no decrease was observed in young men (20-24 years). Both sexes showed an increased risk of NMSC between 1990 and 2002, followed by a decrease. In particular, those born at the beginning of the 21st century showed a significant decrease in NMSC risk compared with earlier cohorts, suggesting a possible cohort effect. A comprehensive analysis of NMSC trends in Spain highlights the need for ongoing research and interventions to address the evolving burden.

Trends in lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019): insights from Global Burden of Diseases data.

BACKGROUND: This study examines lung cancer incidence in Spain (1990-2019) through age-period-cohort (A-P-C) analysis and Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) data, unravelling the complex interplay of age, period, and birth cohort in shaping these trends. METHODS: Utilizing GBD and Spanish population data, the study calculates age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and employs Joinpoint analysis to identify significant trends. A-P-C analysis dissects the individual effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort on incidence patterns. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, almost 738,000 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed in Spain, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. The ASIR of lung cancer in Spain from 1990 to 2019 showed a sustained upward trend in women (Average Annual Per cent Change: 2.5%, P < 0.05), reaching 23.3 cases per 100,000 in 2019, whilst men experienced a significant decrease in incidence rates (AAPC: -0.6%, P < 0.05), falling to 108.9 in 2019. The male-to-female incidence ratio decreased from 12.2 in 1992 to 4.9 in 2019. Joinpoint analysis identified distinct periods for both sexes, with men showing stability, decline and then a significant decrease, whereas women showed an initial increase followed by a decrease. The longitudinal age curves showed a consistently higher incidence risk in men, peaking in the 80-84 age group. Male cohorts since the 1920s showed a decreasing relative risk, whereas women showed fluctuations in risk over time. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer rates are falling in Spain, especially amongst men, due to lower smoking rates. The gender gap is closing, but prevention targeted at women is needed. Tighter tobacco control and research into other risk factors are essential. Understanding the long-term effects of smoking and early exposure is key to better prevention and treatment in Spain.

Unveiling sex-based geographical disparities in myelodysplastic syndrome mortality trends in Spain (1999-2022).

AIM: To comprehensively analyze trends in myelodysplastic neoplasm (MDS) mortality across Spain (1999-2022), examining sex and regional differences. METHODS: We analyzed nationwide death records and population data, calculating age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) stratified by sex and Autonomous Community (AC). Joinpoint regression identified significant shifts in trends. RESULTS: Across Spain, MDS mortality risk varied among men, with rates ranging from 1.08 to 4.38 per 100,000 across regions, while women's rates ranged from 1.23 to 2.02. Five regions had higher risks than the national average, while six had lower risks. Joinpoint analysis revealed three periods nationally: a decline until 2008, and an increase until 2017, followed by a significant decrease. Despite the overall stable national trend (-0.5% annual change), significant regional variations emerged. Andalusia stood out with a worrying increase in MDS mortality, while Aragon and Murcia demonstrated promising declines. Extremadura displayed a unique trajectory with an initial rise followed by stabilization, while Galicia exhibited a contrasting trend with an initial decline and subsequent increase. Notably, men consistently faced a higher risk of MDS mortality compared to women, with significant disparities across regions. Extremadura, in particular, showed a marked difference in risk between genders. CONCLUSION: MDS mortality trends in Spain are complex, and influenced by gender, region, and time. Further research is needed to understand regional disparities, recent national decline, and higher risk in specific demographics. Tailored interventions based on local factors and targeted research are crucial to address these complexities and improve patient outcomes.

Response to editorial: Gastric and pancreatic cancer trends in Spain.

This response to an editorial discusses recent trends in gastric and pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain. The authors acknowledge the contrasting trajectories - a decrease in gastric cancer and an increase in pancreatic cancer - and attribute them to differing causes. Public health measures, particularly H. pylori eradication, are credited for the decline in gastric cancer. The authors also present unpublished data showing a worrying rise in gastric cancer diagnoses among young men. They emphasize the need for continued monitoring, early detection strategies, and preventative measures to tackle both cancers, particularly focusing on pancreatic cancer research due to its rising mortality.

Myelodysplastic syndromes mortality in Spain: a comprehensive age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis / Mortalidad por síndromes mielodisplásicos en España: análisis integral de cohortes por períodos de edad y de puntos de unión

Objective: The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021. Methods: Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35–64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined. Results: MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980–1987 (stable rates), 1987–1990 (sharp increase), 1990–1999 (slower increase) and 1999–2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35–64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.(AU)

Spain's Rising Melanoma Threat: A Comprehensive 30-Year Analysis (1990-2019).

AIM: This study aims to elucidate the factors driving melanoma incidence trends in Spain by analyzing the GBD-2019 dataset (1990-2019) and investigating the age-specific, birth cohort, and period effects on incidence rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study analyzed melanoma incidence trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019 using an ecological design. Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and Spain's National Statistics Institute. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and age-period-cohort (A-P-C) modeling was employed to assess the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on incidence rates. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, an estimated 147,823 melanoma cases were diagnosed in Spain. The ASIRs showed a steady increase for both sexes, with slightly higher rates observed in men. Both men (average annual percentage change (AAPC): 2.8%) and women (AAPC: 2.4%) showed a steady increase in the ASIR over the period. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct periods of incidence rate changes, with significant upward trends in earlier years followed by stabilization in recent years. Incidence rates increased steadily with age, with the highest rates in the 80-84 age group. Women tended to have slightly higher rates in younger age groups, while men had higher rates in older age groups. Both men and women experienced a steady increase in relative risk of melanoma throughout the 30-year study period, with significant upward trends across birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations, this study provides valuable insights into factors influencing melanoma incidence in Spain. By understanding age, period, and cohort effects, effective prevention strategies can be developed to reduce melanoma incidence.

Investigating temporal patterns of colorectal cancer incidence in Spain: a comprehensive analysis of age, period and cohort effects, 1990-2019.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate how age, period, and cohort (A-P-C) impact colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in Spain from 1990 to 2019. METHOD: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we used joinpoint analysis to identify long-term trends and A-P-C modelling to quantify net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort effects. RESULTS: CRC incidence increased steadily in Spain from 1990 to 2019, with a more significant rise in males than in females. The age standardized rates rose from 84.9 to 129.3 cases per 100,000 in males and from 56.9 to 70.3 cases per 100,000 in females. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct patterns for men and women: male incidence showed three phases (a surge until 1995, a slowdown until 2012, and a subsequent decrease) while female incidence showed a single increase until 2011 and then stabilized. Local drifts increased in all age groups over 45, with stability in males under 45 and a decrease in females aged 30-39. The risk of CRC increased with age, with males consistently having a higher risk than females. The risk of CRC increased over time for both men and women but at different rates. The risk for cohorts born in the early to mid-20th century peaked in the 1960s and remained stable until the late 1990s. CONCLUSION: The increasing incidence of CRC in Spain, with distinct patterns by gender and birth cohort, underlines the importance of preventive strategies adapted to temporal and demographic variations to address this public health challenge.

Has the trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain started to slow down?

Introduction: the aim of this study was to describe the trends of pancreatic cancer mortality by autonomous communities (ACs) and gender in Spain (1980-2021). Methods: an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for pancreatic cancer (per 100,000) were estimated by direct standardization, using the European standard population. Trends in ASMR (all ages and truncated 35-64 years) were analyzed by sex in each AC using a joinpoint regression model. The annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percentage of change (AAPC) were computed for trends using the joinpoint regression analysis. Results: in both sexes, ASMRs (all ages) increased significantly (p < 0.05) during the study period (AAPC: 1.5 % in males and 1.8 % in females). The joinpoint analysis identified a turning point in the trends in the late 1980s, which delineates two periods: an initial period of significant increase followed by a period of slowing of the increase (APC: 0.9 % and 1.4 % in males and females respectively; p < 0.05). In both sexes, a significant increase in ASMR (all ages) was observed in all ACs, except in Navarre, where the rates remained stable in males. In males, three ACs (Galicia, Madrid and Navarre) showed a point of inflexion in the time trend around the year 2000 (1999, 2000 and 2001 respectively), when the rates, after a period of significant increase (ACs: 2.6 %, 2.4 %, and 2.4 %, respectively; p < 0.05), stabilized (Galicia and Navarre) or the increase slowed (Madrid). In females, only Madrid showed a point of inflection in 1992, when, after a significant increase, the rates slowed down (1992-2021; APC: 1.5 %; p < 0.05).  Conclusions: the upward trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in some ACs seems to have slowed (in both sexes in Madrid), stabilized (in men in Galicia and Navarre) or turned around (in men aged 30-64 in Navarre) (AU)

Age, period and cohort effects on gastric cancer mortality in Spain, 1980-2021

Background: this study aimed to evaluate the effects of age, time period and cohort (A-P-C) on gastric cancer (GC) mortality in Spain from 1980 to 2021. Methods: an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). Joinpoint regression software was used to estimate rates by sex and age group (< 35, 35-64, > 64 years) and mortality trends. The National Cancer Institute A-P-C tools were used to assess the effects of age, time of death and birth cohort. Results: GC mortality rates in Spain decreased significantly in both sexes. In the under-35 age group, rates were stable after an initial significant decline. In the 35-64 age group, the decline was more pronounced in males than in females. In the 65+ age group, rates fell significantly for both sexes, but more so for females than for males. The net drift and local drift also showed significant decreases across all age groups from 24 years onwards. GC mortality rates increased with age and decreased with calendar time and successive birth cohorts, regardless of sex. The ratio of age-specific rates between males and females increased with age, and birth cohort relative risk estimates followed a steady downward trend until the mid-1970s, after which the decline stabilized. The relative risk decreased for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in males. Conclusion: GC mortality rates in Spain have been decreasing over time and across successive birth cohorts, with a stabilizing trend observed for those under 35 years of age (AU)

Myelodysplastic syndromes mortality in Spain: a comprehensive age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021. METHODS: Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35-64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined. RESULTS: MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980-1987 (stable rates), 1987-1990 (sharp increase), 1990-1999 (slower increase) and 1999-2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35-64 years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised. CONCLUSION: The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.

Age, period and cohort effects on gastric cancer mortality in Spain, 1980-2021.

BACKGROUND: this study aimed to evaluate the effects of age, time period and cohort (A-P-C) on gastric cancer (GC) mortality in Spain from 1980 to 2021. METHODS: an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). Joinpoint regression software was used to estimate rates by sex and age group (< 35, 35-64, > 64 years) and mortality trends. The National Cancer Institute A-P-C tools were used to assess the effects of age, time of death and birth cohort. RESULTS: GC mortality rates in Spain decreased significantly in both sexes. In the under-35 age group, rates were stable after an initial significant decline. In the 35-64 age group, the decline was more pronounced in males than in females. In the 65+ age group, rates fell significantly for both sexes, but more so for females than for males. The net drift and local drift also showed significant decreases across all age groups from 24 years onwards. GC mortality rates increased with age and decreased with calendar time and successive birth cohorts, regardless of sex. The ratio of age-specific rates between males and females increased with age, and birth cohort relative risk estimates followed a steady downward trend until the mid-1970s, after which the decline stabilized. The relative risk decreased for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in males. CONCLUSION: GC mortality rates in Spain have been decreasing over time and across successive birth cohorts, with a stabilizing trend observed for those under 35 years of age.

Has the trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain started to slow down?

INTRODUCTION: the aim of this study was to describe the trends of pancreatic cancer mortality by autonomous communities (ACs) and gender in Spain (1980-2021). METHODS: an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for pancreatic cancer (per 100,000) were estimated by direct standardization, using the European standard population. Trends in ASMR (all ages and truncated 35-64 years) were analyzed by sex in each AC using a joinpoint regression model. The annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percentage of change (AAPC) were computed for trends using the joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: in both sexes, ASMRs (all ages) increased significantly (p < 0.05) during the study period (AAPC: 1.5 % in males and 1.8 % in females). The joinpoint analysis identified a turning point in the trends in the late 1980s, which delineates two periods: an initial period of significant increase followed by a period of slowing of the increase (APC: 0.9 % and 1.4 % in males and females respectively; p < 0.05). In both sexes, a significant increase in ASMR (all ages) was observed in all ACs, except in Navarre, where the rates remained stable in males. In males, three ACs (Galicia, Madrid and Navarre) showed a point of inflexion in the time trend around the year 2000 (1999, 2000 and 2001 respectively), when the rates, after a period of significant increase (ACs: 2.6 %, 2.4 %, and 2.4 %, respectively; p < 0.05), stabilized (Galicia and Navarre) or the increase slowed (Madrid). In females, only Madrid showed a point of inflection in 1992, when, after a significant increase, the rates slowed down (1992-2021; APC: 1.5 %; p < 0.05). Conclusions: the upward trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in some ACs seems to have slowed (in both sexes in Madrid), stabilized (in men in Galicia and Navarre) or turned around (in men aged 30-64 in Navarre).

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain: Updated Information (1982-2021) and Predictions up to 2046.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of lung cancer (LC) mortality are important for planning health services and resource management. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to provide updated information (1982-2021) and project (LC) mortality rates in Spain (2022-2046). METHOD: We analysed data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute about mortality in LC (1982-2021), and we made predictions for the period 2022-2046. RESULTS: In 2021, a total of 22,413 people died of LC, and for the period 2042-2046, the projected annual average was 25,549 deaths. In males, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) (overall) after an initial period of increase (1982-1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (-1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future (-1.9% per year during the period 2022-2046), although the projected decline is slightly higher (-2.0% during the period 2022-2046). In men, ASMR (all ages) after an initial period of increase (1982-1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (-1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future during the period 2022-2046. In women, both the overall and truncated rates (35-64) increase during the period 1982-2021 (4.1% and 6.0% per year, respectively), and projected rates showed that both will decrease during the period 2022-2046, although more markedly in the truncated rates (-1.9% per year) than in the overall rates (-0.5% per year). CONCLUSIONS: Our projections show the magnitude of a steady upward trend in LC mortality among women in Spain that appears to be beginning to reverse from the current decade (similar to that observed for incidence).

Clustering of systemic lupus erythematosus mortality in southwestern Spain.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse time trends in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) mortality and explore possible provincial clustering of SLE mortality in Spain (2001-2020). METHODS: We conducted an ecological study using deaths registered in SLE at the Spanish National Institute of Statistics between 2001 and 2020. Jointpoint regression models have been used to evaluate temporal trends. To analyse the spatial pattern of SLE mortality in men and women in Spain, crude rates, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), smooth relative risk (RR) and posterior probabilities (PP) for RR greater than one for the period 2001-2020 were calculated. The Global Moran I index was used to assess the existence of global spatial autocorrelation. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic were used to identify clusters. RESULTS: Over the 20 years analyzed in this study, the SLE average ASMR for the period was 2.7 for women and 0.7 for men, with a sex ratio (female/male) of 3.8. In men, no province showed a RR>1. Conversely, in women, eight provinces showed values of RR> 1 with a PP greater than 0.8 (Seville, Cadiz, Huelva and Murcia in the south, Barcelona, Zaragoza, Huesca and Leon in the north). In men, neither of the two methods detected a clustering of provinces. However, in women, both methods identified a cluster of provinces located in the southwest of the country (Huelva, Cádiz, Seville and Malaga) as a cluster with significant excess mortality. In the second cluster (centred on the province of Huelva) obtained with the Kulldorff method, two more provinces were added (Badajoz and Cordoba, also located in the southwest). CONCLUSIONS: We detected a cluster of provinces with an excess risk of female SLE mortality in the southwest of Spain.