The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change.

In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape.

Simulating tree growth response to climate change in structurally diverse oak and beech forests.

This study aimed to simulate oak and beech forest growth under various scenarios of climate change and to evaluate how the forest response depends on site properties and particularly on stand characteristics using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. First, this model was evaluated on a wide range of site conditions. We used data from 36 long-term forest monitoring plots to initialize, calibrate, and evaluate HETEROFOR. This evaluation showed that HETEROFOR predicts individual tree radial growth and height increment reasonably well under different growing conditions when evaluated on independent sites. In our simulations under constant CO2 concentration ([CO2]cst) for the 2071-2100 period, climate change induced a moderate net primary production (NPP) gain in continental and mountainous zones and no change in the oceanic zone. The NPP changes were negatively affected by air temperature during the vegetation period and by the annual rainfall decrease. To a lower extent, they were influenced by soil extractable water reserve and stand characteristics. These NPP changes were positively affected by longer vegetation periods and negatively by drought for beech and larger autotrophic respiration costs for oak. For both species, the NPP gain was much larger with rising CO2 concentration ([CO2]var) mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Even if the species composition and structure had a limited influence on the forest response to climate change, they explained a large part of the NPP variability (44% and 34% for [CO2]cst and [CO2]var, respectively) compared to the climate change scenario (5% and 29%) and the inter-annual climate variability (20% and 16%). This gives the forester the possibility to act on the productivity of broadleaved forests and prepare them for possible adverse effects of climate change by reinforcing their resilience.

Climate change effects on tree growth from Romanian forest monitoring Level II plots.

Forest health status is negatively influenced by climate change, air pollution and other disturbances. Extreme droughts reduce stand productivity, increase vulnerability to pests, and can even provoke mortality. Growth dynamics at tree and forest stand levels are considered the main indicators of stability and productivity in forest ecosystem structures. The main climate drivers for tree growth were identified using basal area increment (BAI) as a synthetic indicator. BAI chronologies were obtained from increment cores for 1960-2012 period. Six species were analysed in an attempt to identify their growth limiting factors. For the most important oak species in Romania, resilience components were computed in order to analyse their response to drought events. Moreover, growth dynamics were analysed for two species in mixed and monoculture forests. The results suggest that - in comparison to Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, the sensitivity of Quercus spp. is much higher (0.3-0.47). Oakspecies situated in the most drought-affected areas are sensitive to rainfall values from the previous autumn, current spring, and early summer, with April monthly values having the most significant effect on BAI increment (r = 0.47*) The most sensitive species to drought is Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. Their BAI reduction during drought is >50% compared with the BAI values before the drought period. The recovery capacity of tree growth following drought events is lower for Q. robur and Q. petraea and higher for Q. cerris and Q. frainetto. The mixed forest stands have not showed a constant higher resistance to drought.

Species discrimination and individual tree detection for predicting main dendrometric characteristics in mixed temperate forests by use of airborne laser scanning and ultra-high-resolution imagery.

This study aims to investigate the combined use of two types of remote sensing data - ALS derived and digital aerial photogrammetry data (based on imagery collected by airborne UAV sensors) - along with intensive field measurements for extracting and predicting tree and stand parameters in even-aged mixed forests. The study is located in South West Romania and analyzes data collected from mixed-species plots. The main tree species within each plot are Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The ALS data were used to extract the digital terrain model (DTM), digital surface model (DSM) and normalized canopy height model (CHM). Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) classification was performed to automatically detect and separate the main tree species. A local filtering algorithm with a canopy-height based variable window size was applied to identify the position, height and crown diameter of the main tree species within each plot. The filter was separately applied for each of the plots and for the areas covered with Norway spruce and beech trees, respectively (i.e. as resulted from OBIA classification). The dbh was predicted based on ALS data by statistical Monte Carlo simulations and a linear regression model that relates field dbh for each tree species with their corresponding ALS-derived tree height and crown diameter. The overall RMSE for each of the tree species within all the plots was 5.8 cm for the Norway spruce trees, respectively 5.9 cm for the beech trees. The results indicate a higher individual tree detection rate and subsequently a more precise estimation of dendrometric parameters for Norway spruce compared to beech trees located in spruce-beech even-aged mixed stands. Further investigations are required, particularly in the case of choosing the best method for individual tree detection of beech trees located in temperate even-aged mixed stands.

Synthetic aperture radar sensitivity to forest changes: A simulations-based study for the Romanian forests.

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances pose a significant threat to forest condition. Continuous, reliable and accurate forest monitoring systems are needed to provide early warning of potential declines in forest condition. To address that need, state-of-the-art simulations models were used to evaluate the utility of C-, L- and P-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors within an integrated Earth-Observation monitoring system for beech, oak and coniferous forests in Romania. The electromagnetic simulations showed differentiated sensitivity to vegetation water content, leaf area index, and forest disturbance depending on SAR wavelength and forest structure. C-band data was largely influenced by foliage volume and therefore may be useful for monitoring defoliation. Changes in water content modulated the C-band signal by <1 dB which may be insufficient for a meaningful retrieval of drought effects on forest. C-band sensitivity to significant clear-cuts was rather low (1.5 dB). More subtle effects such as selective logging or thinning may not be easily detected using C- or L-band data with the longer P-band needed for retrieving small intensity forest disturbances. Overall, the simulations emphasize that additional effort is needed to overcome current limitations arising from the use of a single frequency, acquisition time and geometry by tapping the advantages of dense time series, and by combining acquisitions from active and passive sensors. The simulation results may be applicable to forests outside of Romania since the forests types used in the study have similar morphological characteristics to forests elsewhere in Europe.