HIV, antiretroviral therapy and non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from 44 countries over the period 2000 to 2016.

INTRODUCTION: The HIV-infected population is growing due to the increased accessibility of antiretroviral therapy (ART) that extends the lifespan of people living with HIV (PLHIV). We aimed to assess whether national HIV prevalence and ART use are associated with an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: Using country-level data, we analysed the effect of HIV prevalence and use of ART on cardiovascular risk factors in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2016. We used fixed-effects estimation to quantify the effect of HIV and ART on the prevalence of diabetes, mean body mass index, the prevalence of overweight, obesity and hypertension, and mean systolic blood pressure. The models were adjusted for calendar time, the age structure of the population, income and education. RESULTS: Diabetes prevalence among PLHIV was 5.8 percentage points higher (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8 pp to 9.8 pp) compared to individuals without HIV. People receiving ART had a 4.6 percentage point higher prevalence (95% CI 2.6 pp to 6.6 pp). The prevalence of obesity was increased by 14.7 percentage points (95% CI 2.5 pp to 26.9 pp) for PLHIV. Receiving ART was associated with an increased obesity prevalence by 14.0 percentage points (95% CI 4.8 pp to 23.2 pp), whereas it had no significant association with the prevalence of overweight. The population aged 40 to 59 had a significantly higher prevalence of diabetes, overweight and obesity. HIV prevalence and ART use had no significant association with the prevalence of hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: An ageing HIV-infected population on ART is associated with a significant increase in the prevalence of diabetes and obesity in sub-Saharan Africa. The increasing prevalence of these cardiovascular risk factors emphasizes the need for comprehensive healthcare programmes that screen and treat both HIV and non-communicable diseases to decrease the associated morbidity and mortality rates.

Antiretroviral therapy coverage associated with increased co-residence between older and working-age adults in Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether national antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage is associated with changes in the living arrangements of older adults. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis using 103 nationally representative surveys from 28 African countries between 1991 and 2015. METHODS: The sample consisted of individuals aged at least 60 years. We investigated how three measures of living arrangements of older adults have changed with ART coverage: the number of older individuals living without working-age adults, the number of older individuals living with only dependent children (i.e. 'missing generation' households), and the number of working-age adults per household where an older individual lives. RESULTS: Our sample consisted of 297 331 older adults. An increase in ART coverage of 1% was associated with a 0.7 percentage point reduction (P < 0.001) in the probability of an older adult living without working-age adult and a 0.2 percentage point reduction (P = 0.005) in the probability of an older adult living in a 'missing generation' household. Increases in ART coverage were also associated with more working-age adults in households with at least one older adult. In our study countries, representing 75% (749 million) of the sub-Saharan population, an additional 103 000-358 000 older adults could be living with working-age adults as a result of increased ART coverage (1%). CONCLUSION: The scale-up of ART has likely led to substantial increases in co-residence between older and working-age adults in Africa. Returns to investments in HIV treatment will be too low, if the social benefits from these changes in living arrangements of older adults are not taken into account.