Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of stable warfarin dose in patients of African ancestry.

Warfarin dose requirements are highly variable due to clinical and genetic factors. While genetic variants influencing warfarin dose have been identified in European and East Asian populations, more work is needed to identify African-specific genetic variants to help optimize warfarin dosing. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in four African cohorts from Uganda, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, totalling 989 warfarin-treated participants who reached stable dose and had international normalized ratios within therapeutic ranges. We also included two African American cohorts recruited by the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium (n=316) and the University of Alabama at Birmingham (n=199). Following the GWAS, we performed standard error-weighted meta-analyses and then conducted stepwise conditional analyses to account for known loci (the CYP2C cluster SNP rs12777823 and CYP2C9 in chromosome 10; VKORC1 in chromosome 16). The genome-wide significance threshold was set at P<5×10-8. The meta-analysis, comprising 1,504 participants identified 242 significant SNPs across three genomic loci, with 99.6% of these located within known loci on chromosomes 10 (top SNP: rs58800757, P=4.27×10-13) and 16 (top SNP: rs9925964, P=9.97×10-16). Adjustment for the VKORC1 SNP -1639G>A revealed an additional locus on chromosome 2 (top SNPs rs116057875/rs115254730/rs115240773, P=3.64×10-8), implicating the MALL gene, that could indirectly influence warfarin response through interactions with caveolin-1. In conclusion, our meta-analysis of six cohorts of warfarin-treated patients of African ancestry reaffirmed the importance of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 in influencing warfarin dose requirements. We also identified a new locus (MALL), that still requires direct evidence of biological plausibility.

A review and economic analysis of the dapivirine vaginal ring as HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for women, to inform South African public-sector guidelines.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has a high HIV incidence and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is available as public-sector standard of care. Access to alternative prevention methods for women may further reduce HIV acquisition. SETTING: South African public-sector. METHODS: We performed a systematic search for high-quality up-to-date guidelines recommending dapivirine ring as PrEP using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE)-Adolopment process. We appraised the systematic review and randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence underpinning the selected guideline's recommendations and conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis. The GRADE Evidence-to-Decision framework guided the adaptation of source guideline recommendations, according to our local context. RESULTS: We identified the 2021 World Health Organization PrEP Guidelines, informed by two placebo-controlled RCTs, which were included in a contemporaneous systematic review. There were 23 fewer HIV acquisitions per 1000 clients with dapivirine ring versus placebo (95% confidence interval 10-34), with no increase in adverse events (moderate certainty evidence). We found no RCTs comparing dapivirine to oral PrEP, or amongst adolescent/pregnant/breastfeeding clients. Dapivirine is less cost-effective than oral PrEP at $14.59/ring, at the current price. CONCLUSION: The source guideline recommendation was adapted for the local context. Dapivirine ring appears to be less efficacious than oral PrEP, although comparative studies are lacking. Data in adolescents and pregnancy are also lacking, currently limiting the use of dapivirine as an alternative for women unable to take oral PrEP. At the current price, dapivirine is not cost-effective and unaffordable for inclusion in the South African Essential Medicines List.

Southern African HIV Clinicians Society Guideline for the clinical management of syphilis.

Syphilis, 'the great imitator', caused by Treponema pallidum infection, remains a complex and multifaceted disease with a rich history of clinical diversity. This guideline aims to be a comprehensive guide for healthcare workers in Southern Africa, offering practical insights into the epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, diagnostic testing, therapeutic principles, and public health responses to syphilis. Although the syphilis burden has declined over the years, recent data indicate a troubling resurgence, particularly among pregnant women and neonates. This guideline highlights the diagnostic challenges posed by syphilis, stemming from the absence of a single high-sensitivity and -specificity test. While treatment with penicillin remains the cornerstone of treatment, alternative regimens may be used for specific scenarios. We highlight the importance of thorough patient follow-up and management of sex partners to ensure optimal care of syphilis cases. In the context of public health, we emphasise the need for concerted efforts to combat the increasing burden of syphilis, especially within high-risk populations, including people living with HIV.

Anticoagulation control among patients on vitamin K antagonists in nine countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Vitamin K antagonists (VKA) is the primary anticoagulant in most settings of Sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the quality of anticoagulation services in the continent is vital in optimising the intended benefits. This study assessed the quality of anticoagulation and associated factors among VKA-treated patients in nine SSA countries. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients on anticoagulation from 20 clinics in Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, and South Africa. Eligible participants were those on VKAs for at least three months and with at least four international normalised ratios (INR) results in 2019-2021. We report the proportion of INR values in the therapeutic range, time-in-therapeutic range (TTR) using the Rosendaal method, and the proportion of patients with TTR ≥ 65% (optimal anticoagulation). The mean age was 51.1(16.1) years, and 64.2% were women. The most common indications for VKA included venous thromboembolism (29.6%), prosthetic valves (26.7%) and atrial fibrillation/flutter (30.1%). We analysed 6743 INR tests from 1011 participants, and of these, 48.5% were sub-therapeutic, 34.1% therapeutic, and 17.4% were supratherapeutic relative to disease-specific reference ranges. TTR was calculated for 660 patients using 4927 INR measurements. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) TTR was 35.8(15.9,57.2) %. Optimal anticoagulation control was evident in 19.2% of participants, varying from 2.7% in Tanzania to 23.1% in Ethiopia. The proportion of patients with TTR ≥ 65% was 15,4% for prosthetic heart valves, 21.1% for venous thromboembolism and 23.7% for atrial fibrillation or flutter. Countries with universal health coverage had higher odds of optimal anticoagulation control (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15- 2.81, p = 0.01). Patients on VKAs for different therapeutic indications in SSA had suboptimal TTR. Universal health coverage increased the odds of achieving TTR by 79%. The evidence calls for more intensive warfarin management strategies in SSA, including providing VKA services without out-of-pocket payments.

Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine in preventing morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 in children aged 5 to 11 years: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

A rapid systematic review, based on Cochrane rapid review methodology was conducted to assess the effectiveness of two 10µg doses of BNT162b2 vaccine in preventing morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 in children aged 5 to 11 years. We searched the Cochrane Library COVID-19 study register, the COVID-NMA living review database and the McMaster University Living Evidence Synthesis for pre-appraised trials and observational studies up to 7 December 2022. Records were screened independently in duplicate. Where appraisal was not available, these were done in duplicate. Meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan 5.3 presenting risk ratios/odds ratios/inverse vaccine efficacy with 95% confidence intervals (CI). GRADE for assessing the overall certainty of the evidence was done in Gradepro. We screened 403 records and assessed 52 full-text articles for eligibility. One randomised controlled trial (RCT) and 24 observational studies were included. The RCT reported that BNT162b2 was likely safe and 91% efficacious, RR 0.09 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.32) against incident COVID-19 infection (moderate certainty evidence). In absolute terms, this is 19 fewer cases per 1,000 vaccines delivered (ranging from 15 to 21 fewer cases). Observational studies reported vaccine effectiveness (VE) against incident COVID-19 infection of 65% (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.47) and 76% against hospitalisation (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.42) (moderate certainty evidence). The absolute effect is 167 fewer cases per 1,000 vaccines given (ranging from 130 fewer to 196 fewer cases) and 4 fewer hospitalisations per 10,000 children (from 3 fewer to 5 fewer hospitalisations). Adverse events following vaccination with BNT162b2 were mild or moderate and transient. The evidence demonstrated a reduction in incident COVID-19 cases and small absolute reduction in hospitalisation if a two-dose BNT162b2 vaccine regimen is offered to children aged 5 to 11 years, compared to placebo. PROSPERO registration: CRD42021286710.

Severe efavirenz associated neurotoxicity: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: Efavirenz (EFV) is associated with neuropsychiatric symptoms. Severe neurotoxicity has been reported but the clinical phenotype and risk factors are poorly defined. Objectives: To characterise clinical presentations, risk factors and outcomes to help clinicians recognise severe neurotoxicity earlier. Method: The authors retrospectively identified adults with supratherapeutic EFV concentrations (> 4 mg/L) obtained during routine clinical care in Cape Town, South Africa. Clinical and laboratory data at the time of EFV quantification were extracted from medical records. Logistic regression was performed to identify associations with neuropsychiatric symptoms, and with severe neurotoxicity. Results: Eighty one patients were included; 62 with neuropsychiatric manifestations (most frequently ataxia [n = 20] and psychomotor slowing [n = 24]); and 19 with hepatotoxicity. Overall, 28 (34.6%) were male, 49 (60.5%) had concomitant isoniazid exposure, and median EFV concentration was 12.1 mg/L (interquartile range [IQR]: 6.6-20.0). Neuropsychiatric symptoms were associated with longer duration of EFV therapy, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.3/180-day increment (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.7); higher EFV concentrations, aOR 1.2/1 mg/L increase (95% CI: 1.0-1.4) and isoniazid exposure, aOR 8.2 (95% CI: 2.5-26.7). Severe neuropsychiatric symptoms occurred in 47 (75%) patients at a median of 5.9 months (IQR: 2.1-40.8) after EFV initiation. Severe symptoms odds were 1.2-fold higher (95% CI: 1.1-1.4) per 1 mg/L increase in EFV concentration. Symptoms resolved completely within 1 month in 25 (76%) patients with severe neurotoxicity who discontinued EFV. Conclusion: A concentration-effect relationship for severe neurotoxicity exists, which occurred late and resolved in most patients after EFV discontinuation. Contribution: The authors highlighted clinical heterogeneity and morbidity of EFV-associated neurotoxicity.

A "Bundle of Care" to Improve Anticoagulation Control in Patients Receiving Warfarin in Uganda and South Africa: Protocol for an Implementation Study.

BACKGROUND: The quality of warfarin anticoagulation among Sub-Saharan African patients is suboptimal. This is due to several factors, including a lack of standardized dosing algorithms, difficulty in providing timely international normalized ratio (INR) results, a lack of patient feedback on their experiences with treatment, a lack of education on adherence, and inadequate knowledge and training of health care workers. Low quality of warfarin anticoagulation, expressed as time in therapeutic range (TTR), is associated with higher adverse event rates, including bleeding and thrombosis, and ultimately, increased morbidity and mortality. Processes and interventions that improve this situation are urgently needed. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the implementation of the "warfarin bundle," a package of interventions to improve the quality of anticoagulation and thereby clinical outcomes. The primary outcome for this study is TTR over the initial 3 months of warfarin therapy. METHODS: Patients aged 18 years or older who are newly initiated on warfarin for venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation, or valvular heart disease will be enrolled and followed up for 3 months at clinics in Cape Town, South Africa, and Kampala, Uganda, where the warfarin bundle is implemented. A retrospective review of the clinical records of patients on warfarin treatment before implementation (controls) will be used for comparison. This study uses a mixed methods approach of the implementation of patient- and process-centered activities to improve the quality of anticoagulation. Patient-centered activities include the use of clinical dosing algorithms, adherence support, and root cause analysis, whereas process-centered activities include point-of-care INR testing, staff training, and patient education and training. We will assess the impact of these interventions by comparing the TTR and safety outcomes across the 2 groups, as well as the cost-effectiveness and acceptability of the package. RESULTS: We started recruitment in June 2021 and stopped in August 2022, having recruited 167 participants. We obtained ethics approval from the University of Cape Town Faculty of Health Sciences Human Research Ethics Committee, the Provincial Health Research Committees in South Africa, the Joint Clinical Research Centre Institutional Review Board, Kampala, and the University of Liverpool Research Ethics Committee. As of February 2023, data cleaning and formal analysis are underway. We expect to publish the full results by December 2023. CONCLUSIONS: We anticipate that the "bundle of care," which includes a clinical algorithm to guide individualized dosing of warfarin, will improve INR control and TTR of patients in Uganda and South Africa. We will use these findings to design a larger, multisite clinical trial across several Sub-Saharan African countries. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/46710.

Analysis of serum microRNA-122 in a randomized controlled trial of N-acetylcysteine for treatment of antituberculosis drug-induced liver injury.

AIM: Serum microRNA-122 (miR-122) is a novel biomarker for drug-induced liver injury, with good sensitivity in the early diagnosis of paracetamol-induced liver injury. We describe miR-122 concentrations in participants with antituberculosis drug-induced liver injury (AT-DILI). We explored the relationship between miR-122 and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) concentrations and the effect of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) on miR-122 concentrations. METHODS: We included participants from a randomized placebo-controlled trial of intravenous NAC in AT-DILI. ALT and miR-122 concentrations were quantified before and after infusion of NAC/placebo. We assessed correlations between ALT and miR-122 concentrations and described changes in ALT and miR-122 concentrations between sampling occasions. RESULTS: We included 45 participants; mean age (± standard deviation) 38 (±10) years, 58% female and 91% HIV positive. The median (interquartile range) time between pre- and post-infusion biomarker specimens was 68 h (47-77 h). The median pre-infusion ALT and miR-122 concentrations were 420 U/L (238-580) and 0.58 pM (0.18-1.47), respectively. Pre-infusion ALT and miR-122 concentrations were correlated (Spearman's ρ = .54, P = .0001). Median fold-changes in ALT and miR-122 concentrations between sampling were 0.56 (0.43-0.69) and 0.75 (0.23-1.53), respectively, and were similar in the NAC and placebo groups (P = .40 and P = .68 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: miR-122 concentrations in our participants with AT-DILI were considerably higher than previously reported in healthy volunteers and in patients on antituberculosis therapy without liver injury. We did not detect an effect of NAC on miR-122 concentrations. Further research is needed to determine the utility of miR-122 in the diagnosis and management of AT-DILI.

Erratum: Southern African HIV Clinicians Society 2022 guideline for the management of sexually transmitted infections: Moving towards best practice.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.4102/sajhivmed.v23i1.1450.].

Service-level barriers to and facilitators of access to services for the treatment of alcohol use disorder and problematic alcohol use: protocol for a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, substance use health services for treatment of alcohol use disorder and problematic alcohol use (AUD/PAU) were fragmented and challenging to access. The pandemic magnified system weaknesses, often resulting in disruptions of treatment as alcohol use during the pandemic rose. When treatment services were available, utilisation was often low for various reasons. Virtual care was implemented to offset the drop in in-person care, however accessibility was not universal. Identification of the characteristics of treatment services for AUD/PAU that impact accessibility, as perceived by the individuals accessing or providing the services, will provide insights to enable improved access. We will perform a scoping review that will identify characteristics of services for treatment of AUD/PAU that have been identified as barriers to or facilitators of service access from the perspectives of these groups. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will follow scoping review methodological guidance from the Joanna Briggs Institute. Using the OVID platform, we will search Ovid MEDLINE including Epub Ahead of Print and In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Embase Classic+Embase, APA PsychInfo, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and CINAHL (Ebsco Platform). Multiple reviewers will screen citations. We will seek studies reporting data collected from individuals with AUD/PAU or providers of treatment for AUD/PAU on service-level factors affecting access to care. We will map barriers to and facilitators of access to AUD/PAU treatment services identified in the relevant studies, stratified by service type and key measures of inequity across service users. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This research will enhance awareness of existing evidence regarding barriers to and facilitators of access to services for the treatment of alcohol use disorder and problematic alcohol use. Findings will be disseminated through publications, conference presentations and a stakeholder meeting. As this is a scoping review of published literature, no ethics approval was required.

A genome-wide association study of plasma concentrations of warfarin enantiomers and metabolites in sub-Saharan black-African patients.

Diversity in pharmacogenomic studies is poor, especially in relation to the inclusion of black African patients. Lack of funding and difficulties in recruitment, together with the requirement for large sample sizes because of the extensive genetic diversity in Africa, are amongst the factors which have hampered pharmacogenomic studies in Africa. Warfarin is widely used in sub-Saharan Africa, but as in other populations, dosing is highly variable due to genetic and non-genetic factors. In order to identify genetic factors determining warfarin response variability, we have conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of plasma concentrations of warfarin enantiomers/metabolites in sub-Saharan black-Africans. This overcomes the issue of non-adherence and may have greater sensitivity at genome-wide level, to identify pharmacokinetic gene variants than focusing on mean weekly dose, the usual end-point used in previous studies. Participants recruited at 12 outpatient sites in Uganda and South Africa on stable warfarin dose were genotyped using the Illumina Infinium H3Africa Consortium Array v2. Imputation was conducted using the 1,000 Genomes Project phase III reference panel. Warfarin/metabolite plasma concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Multivariable linear regression was undertaken, with adjustment made for five non-genetic covariates and ten principal components of genetic ancestry. After quality control procedures, 548 participants and 17,268,054 SNPs were retained. CYP2C9*8, CYP2C9*9, CYP2C9*11, and the CYP2C cluster SNP rs12777823 passed the Bonferroni-adjusted replication significance threshold (p < 3.21E-04) for warfarin/metabolite ratios. In an exploratory GWAS analysis, 373 unique SNPs in 13 genes, including CYP2C9*8, passed the Bonferroni-adjusted genome-wide significance threshold (p < 3.846E-9), with 325 (87%, all located on chromosome 10) SNPs being associated with the S-warfarin/R-warfarin outcome (top SNP rs11188082, CYP2C19 intron variant, p = 1.55E-17). Approximately 69% of these SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium (r 2 > 0.8) with CYP2C9*8 (n = 216) and rs12777823 (n = 8). Using a pharmacokinetic approach, we have shown that variants other than CYP2C9*2 and CYP2C9*3 are more important in sub-Saharan black-Africans, mainly due to the allele frequencies. In exploratory work, we conducted the first warfarin pharmacokinetics-related GWAS in sub-Saharan Africans and identified novel SNPs that will require external replication and functional characterization before they can be considered for inclusion in warfarin dosing algorithms.

Rechallenge after anti-tuberculosis drug-induced liver injury in a high HIV prevalence cohort.

Background: There are limited data on the outcomes of rechallenge with anti-tuberculosis therapy (ATT) following anti-tuberculosis drug-induced liver injury (AT-DILI) in a high HIV prevalence setting. Objectives: To describe the outcomes of rechallenge with first-line ATT. Method: Hospitalised participants with AT-DILI who were enrolled into a randomised controlled trial of N-acetylcysteine in Cape Town, South Africa, were followed up until completion of ATT rechallenge. We described rechallenge outcomes, and identified associations with recurrence of liver injury on rechallenge (positive rechallenge). Results: Seventy-nine participants were rechallenged of whom 41 (52%) were female. Mean age was 37 years (standard deviation [s.d.] ±10). Sixty-eight (86%) were HIV-positive, of whom 34 (50%) were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at time of AT-DILI presentation. Five participants had serious adverse reactions to an aminoglycoside included in the alternate ATT regimen given after first-line ATT interruption: acute kidney injury in three and hearing loss in two. The median time from first-line ATT interruption to start of first-line ATT rechallenge was 13 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 8-18 days). Antiretroviral therapy was interrupted for a median of 32 days (IQR: 17-58) among HIV-positive participants on ART before AT-DILI. Fourteen participants had positive rechallenge (18%). Positive rechallenge was associated with pyrazinamide rechallenge (P = 0.005), female sex (P = 0.039) and first episode of tuberculosis (TB) (P = 0.032). Conclusion: Rechallenge was successful in most of our cohort. Pyrazinamide rechallenge should be carefully considered.

Accuracy of measures for antiretroviral adherence in people living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Good patient adherence to antiretroviral (ART) medication determines effective HIV viral suppression, and thus reduces the risk of progression and transmission of HIV. With accurate methods to monitor treatment adherence, we could use simple triage to target adherence support interventions that could help in the community or at health centres in resource-limited settings. OBJECTIVES: To determine the accuracy of simple measures of ART adherence (including patient self-report, tablet counts, pharmacy records, electronic monitoring, or composite methods) for detecting non-suppressed viral load in people living with HIV and receiving ART treatment. SEARCH METHODS: The Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Information Specialists searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, CINAHL, African-Wide information, and Web of Science up to 22 April 2021. They also searched the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov for ongoing studies. No restrictions were placed on the language or date of publication when searching the electronic databases. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies of all designs that evaluated a simple measure of adherence (index test) such as self-report, tablet counts, pharmacy records or secondary database analysis, or both, electronic monitoring or composite measures of any of those tests, in people living with HIV and receiving ART treatment. We used a viral load assay with a limit of detection ranging from 10 copies/mL to 400 copies/mL as the reference standard. We created 2 × 2 tables to calculate sensitivity and specificity. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We screened studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias using QUADAS-2 independently and in duplicate. We assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE method. The results of estimated sensitivity and specificity were presented using paired forest plots and tabulated summaries. We encountered a high level of variation among studies which precluded a meaningful meta-analysis or comparison of adherence measures. We explored heterogeneity using pre-defined subgroup analysis. MAIN RESULTS: We included 51 studies involving children and adults with HIV, mostly living in low- and middle-income settings, conducted between 2003 and 2021. Several studies assessed more than one index test, and the most common measure of adherence to ART was self-report. - Self-report questionnaires (25 studies, 9211 participants; very low-certainty): sensitivity ranged from 10% to 85% and specificity ranged from 10% to 99%. - Self-report using a visual analogue scale (VAS) (11 studies, 4235 participants; very low-certainty): sensitivity ranged from 0% to 58% and specificity ranged from 55% to 100%. - Tablet counts (12 studies, 3466 participants; very low-certainty): sensitivity ranged from 0% to 100% and specificity ranged from 5% to 99%. - Electronic monitoring devices (3 studies, 186 participants; very low-certainty): sensitivity ranged from 60% to 88% and the specificity ranged from 27% to 67%. - Pharmacy records or secondary databases (6 studies, 2254 participants; very low-certainty): sensitivity ranged from 17% to 88% and the specificity ranged from 9% to 95%. - Composite measures (9 studies, 1513 participants; very low-certainty): sensitivity ranged from 10% to 100% and specificity ranged from 49% to 100%. Across all included studies, the ability of adherence measures to detect viral non-suppression showed a large variation in both sensitivity and specificity that could not be explained by subgroup analysis. We assessed the overall certainty of the evidence as very low due to risk of bias, indirectness, inconsistency, and imprecision. The risk of bias and the applicability concerns for patient selection, index test, and reference standard domains were generally low or unclear due to unclear reporting. The main methodological issues identified were related to flow and timing due to high numbers of missing data. For all index tests, we assessed the certainty of the evidence as very low due to limitations in the design and conduct of the studies, applicability concerns and inconsistency of results. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We encountered high variability for all index tests, and the overall certainty of evidence in all areas was very low. No measure consistently offered either a sufficiently high sensitivity or specificity to detect viral non-suppression. These concerns limit their value in triaging patients for viral load monitoring or enhanced adherence support interventions.

Health Technology Assessment in Support of National Health Insurance in South Africa.

South Africa has embarked on major health policy reform to deliver universal health coverage through the establishment of National Health Insurance (NHI). The aim is to improve access, remove financial barriers to care, and enhance care quality. Health technology assessment (HTA) is explicitly identified in the proposed NHI legislation and will have a prominent role in informing decisions about adoption and access to health interventions and technologies. The specific arrangements and approach to HTA in support of this legislation are yet to be determined. Although there is currently no formal national HTA institution in South Africa, there are several processes in both the public and private healthcare sectors that use elements of HTA to varying extents to inform access and resource allocation decisions. Institutions performing HTAs or related activities in South Africa include the National and Provincial Departments of Health, National Treasury, National Health Laboratory Service, Council for Medical Schemes, medical scheme administrators, managed care organizations, academic or research institutions, clinical societies and associations, pharmaceutical and devices companies, private consultancies, and private sector hospital groups. Existing fragmented HTA processes should coordinate and conform to a standardized, fit-for-purpose process and structure that can usefully inform priority setting under NHI and for other decision makers. This transformation will require comprehensive and inclusive planning with dedicated funding and regulation, and provision of strong oversight mechanisms and leadership.

Vitamin K-dependent anticoagulant use and level of anticoagulation control in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol for a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Given that vitamin K-dependent anticoagulants (VKAs) will continue to be the primary anticoagulant in Africa for a long time, understanding the quality of anticoagulation services in the continent is vital for optimising the intended benefits. Notably, a few small studies have assessed the quality of anticoagulation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. This study will describe the current VKA use and anticoagulation control among patients in selected SSA countries. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We plan to review the 2019 anticoagulation data of a cohort of 800 random patients from 19 selected clinics in Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. We expect at least one participating site to enrol 100 participants in each country. Eligible participants will be those on VKAs for at least 3 months and with at least four international normalised ratio (INR) results. We will document the indications, type and duration of VKA use, sociodemographic factors, coexisting medical conditions, concurrent use of drugs that interact with warfarin and alcohol and tobacco products. The level of anticoagulation control will be determined by calculating the time-in-therapeutic range (TTR) using the Rosendaal and the Percent of INR in TTR methods. A TTR of less than 65% will define a suboptimal anticoagulation control. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Ministry of Health and Wellness Ethics Committee (HPDME13/8/1) in Botswana and local research ethics committees or institutional review boards of all participating sites. As the study collects data from existing records, sites applied for waivers of consent. We will disseminate research findings through peer-reviewed scientific publications.

Stable warfarin dose prediction in sub-Saharan African patients: A machine-learning approach and external validation of a clinical dose-initiation algorithm.

Warfarin remains the most widely prescribed oral anticoagulant in sub-Saharan Africa. However, because of its narrow therapeutic index, dosing can be challenging. We have therefore (a) evaluated and compared the performance of 21 machine-learning techniques in predicting stable warfarin dose in sub-Saharan Black-African patients and (b) externally validated a previously developed Warfarin Anticoagulation in Patients in Sub-Saharan Africa (War-PATH) clinical dose-initiation algorithm. The development cohort included 364 patients recruited from eight outpatient clinics and hospital departments in Uganda and South Africa (June 2018-July 2019). Validation was conducted using an external validation cohort (270 patients recruited from August 2019 to March 2020 in 12 outpatient clinics and hospital departments). Based on the mean absolute error (MAE; mean of absolute differences between the actual and predicted doses), random forest regression (12.07 mg/week; 95% confidence interval [CI], 10.39-13.76) was the best performing machine-learning technique in the external validation cohort, whereas the worst performing technique was model trees (17.59 mg/week; 95% CI, 15.75-19.43). By comparison, the simple, commonly used regression technique (ordinary least squares) performed similarly to more complex supervised machine-learning techniques and achieved an MAE of 13.01 mg/week (95% CI, 11.45-14.58). In summary, we have demonstrated that simpler regression techniques perform similarly to more complex supervised machine-learning techniques. We have also externally validated our previously developed clinical dose-initiation algorithm, which is being prospectively tested for clinical utility.