Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of heat-stable carbetocin compared to oxytocin and misoprostol for the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in women giving birth in India.

INTRODUCTION: Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3.1 to reduce maternal mortality. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of India recommends prophylactic uterotonic administration to every woman following delivery to reduce the risk of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), as PPH is the leading cause of maternal mortality in LMICs, including India. In 2018, the World Health Organization first recognized heat-stable carbetocin for PPH prevention. Governments are now considering its introduction into their public health systems. METHODS: A decision-tree model was developed from the public healthcare system perspective to compare the value of heat-stable carbetocin versus oxytocin and misoprostol among women giving birth in public sector healthcare facilities in India. The model accounted for differences in PPH risk and costs based on mode of delivery and healthcare setting, as well as provider behavior to mitigate quality concerns of oxytocin. Model outcomes for each prophylactic uterotonic included the number of PPH events, DALYs due to PPH, deaths due to PPH, and direct medical care costs. The budget impact was estimated based on projected uterotonic uptake between 2022-2026. RESULTS: Compared to oxytocin, heat-stable carbetocin avoided 5,468 additional PPH events, 5 deaths, and 244 DALYs per 100,000 births. Projected direct medical costs to the public healthcare system were lowered by US $171,700 (₹12.8 million; exchange rate of ₹74.65 = US$1 from 2 Feb 2022) per 100,000 births. Benefits were even greater when compared to misoprostol (7,032 fewer PPH events, 10 fewer deaths, 470 fewer DALYs, and $230,248 saved per 100,000 births). In the budget impact analysis, India's public health system is projected to save US$11.4 million (₹849 million) over the next five years if the market share for heat-stable carbetocin grows to 19% of prophylactic uterotonics administered. CONCLUSIONS: Heat-stable carbetocin is expected to reduce the number of PPH events and deaths, avoid more DALYs, and reduce costs to the public healthcare system of India. Greater adoption of heat-stable carbetocin for the prevention of PPH could advance India's efforts to achieve its maternal health goals and increase efficiency of its public health spending.

SARS/CoV-2: Behavioral Host Manipulation.

INTRODUCTION: Though it has not been extensively studied, host manipulation has been documented for various pathogens. Examples of this phenomenon can be seen in cases of toxoplasmosis, rabies, and the influenza virus. An examination of the possible means by which SARS/CoV-2 alters the behavior of its host to spread among populations is elaborated. Indirect evidence that serves as indicators of this phenomenon is presented. METHODS: This is primarily a theoretical document. Many of the ideas raised are not amenable to direct testing due to ethical concerns. However, several indirect means by which to test the hypothesis are discussed. Primary data from cell phones regarding miles traveled, number of times leaving home, etc., are among the possible indirect measures. RESULTS: The rapid ability of the SARS/CoV-2 virus to spread through society suggests that it may cause behavioral changes of the host to increase its transmission. Numerous cases of super spreader events are noted that have provided meaningful measures of host manipulation. CONCLUSION: In the case of SARS/CoV-2, the largest advantage of the pathogen is likely that between 50% and 70% of those infected are asymptomatic (John's Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, John's Hopkins University Corona Virus Resource Center. Available at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html , 2020). This component is a threat to elderly individuals and those immunocompromised who are more likely to have severe complications from the virus and die. To spread within these groups, a seemingly healthy host is necessary to carry the virus to them. The goal of the virus is not to kill the host, but to survive and reproduce.

Hypothesized behavioral host manipulation by SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 infection.

Although not widely studied, behavioral host manipulation by various pathogens has been documented. Host manipulation is the process by which a pathogen evolves adaptations to manipulate the behavior of the host to maximize reproduction (Ro) of the pathogen. The most notable example is rabies. When a host is infected with the rabies virus it gets into the host's central nervous system and triggers hyper aggression. The virus is also present in the rabid animal's saliva so being bitten transmits the infection to a new host and the old host is left to eventually die if untreated. Toxoplasmosis is another example. When mice are infected they demonstrate a fearlessness toward cats, thus increasing their chances of being eaten. Toxoplasmosis needs the digestive tract of the feline to survive. Recent studies have shown that exposure to toxoplasmosis in humans (e.g., through cat feces) has also been associated with behavioral changes that are predicted to enhance the spread of the pathogen. Even the common influenza virus has been shown to selectively increase in-person sociality during the 48-hour incubation period, thus producing an obvious vector for transmission. Here we hypothesize that the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, which produces the COVID-19 disease may produce similar host manipulations that maximize its transmission between humans.

Proposed symptom-based model of the origins of schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia is considered a severe mental illness and effects an estimated 1% of the world population. The evidence suggests that incidence rate has been and will continue to be stable over time. Here we adopt a symptomatology-focused evolutionary informed approach to discuss the possible biological adaptations of various presentations of schizophrenia. It is our contention that rather than thinking about schizophrenia as a single disorder, or even a spectrum of disorders, marked by social maladaptation and personal subjective distress, that an evolutionary interpretation based on adaptive nature of individual, or small clusters of, symptoms could prove to be more useful in better understanding the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and its relationship with other psychiatric diagnoses.

Cost-effectiveness of a pentavalent human-bovine reassortant rotavirus vaccine for children ≤5 years of age in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE: A Markov model was used to assess the impact of RV5, a pentavalent (G1, G2, G3, G4, P1A[8]) human bovine (WC3 strain) reassortant rotavirus vaccine, on reducing the healthcare burden and cost associated with rotavirus gastroenteritis (RGE) in Taiwan. Other cost-effectiveness analyses for rotavirus vaccination in industrialized countries have produced varying results depending on the input parameters assumed. METHODS: Vaccination with RV5 is compared to no vaccination in a hypothetical cohort of Taiwanese children during their first 5 years of life to determine the per dose prices at which vaccination would be cost neutral or provide good value based on established standards from the healthcare (direct medical care costs only) and societal (all RGE-related costs) perspectives. The effects of vaccination on RGE healthcare utilization and days of parental work loss missed are based on results from the Rotavirus Efficacy and Safety Trial. RESULTS: Without vaccination there would be 122,526 symptomatic episodes of RGE. Universal vaccination would reduce RGE-related deaths, hospitalizations, emergency department, and outpatient visits by 91.7%, 92.1%, 83.7%, and 73.4%, respectively. The price per dose at which vaccination would be cost-neutral is US$ 21.80 (688 NTD) and US$ 26.20 (827 NTD) from the healthcare and societal perspectives, respectively. At $25 per dose, the cost per QALY gained is US$ 2261 (71,335 NTD) from the healthcare perspective and cost saving from the societal perspective. KEY LIMITATION: The model only assesses the effect of RV5 on vaccinated children and does not account for herd immunity. However, given that high levels of coverage are anticipated in Taiwan, the effects of herd immunity are likely to be short-term. CONCLUSION: A pentavalent rotavirus vaccination program is likely to substantially reduce the healthcare burden associated with rotavirus gastroenteritis at a cost per QALY ratio within the range defined as cost-effective.

Healthy-days time equivalents for outcomes of acute rotavirus infections.

Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in infants and young children worldwide. Health-state utility measures used in economic evaluations of rotavirus vaccines do not reflect differences between mild and severe symptoms of rotavirus gastroenteritis and, therefore, do not adequately capture preferences for non-fatal outcomes associated with rotavirus common in industrialized countries. This paper describes the development and results of a survey specifically designed to develop quality-adjusted time equivalents for rotavirus gastroenteritis among a sample of parents with young children in the United States as an alternative to conventional QALY measures in assessing cost-effectiveness.

Cholesterol reduction yields clinical benefits: meta-analysis including recent trials.

BACKGROUND: Previous meta-analyses reported by Gould et al found significant decreases of 15% in the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD)-related mortality and 11 % in risk for all-cause mortality per decrease of 10% in total cholesterol (TC) level. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of reducing cholesterol on clinical events after including data from recent clinical trials. METHODS: Using a literature search (MeSH key terms, including: bezafibrate, coronary disease, efficacy, gemfibrozil, hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibitors, hypercholesterolemia, niacin [nicotinic acids], randomized controlled trials, and treatment outcome; years: 1999-2005), we identified trials published in English that assessed the effects of lipid-modifying therapies on CHD end points, including CHD-related death, myocardial infarction, and angina pectoris. We also included all studies from the previously published meta-analysis. Using the same analytic approach as previously, we determined the effects of net absolute reductions (1 mmol/L [38.7 mg/dL]) in TC and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on the relative risks (RRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD-related mortality, any CHD event (mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction), and non-CHD-related mortality. RESULTS: We included 62 studies involving 216,616 patients, including 126,474 from 24 randomized controlled trials the findings of which were published since the previous meta-analysis (1998). Among all patients, for every 1-mmol/L decrease in TC, there was a 17.5 reduction in RR for all-cause mortality; 24.5 %, for CHD-related mortality; and 29.5% for any CHD event. Corresponding reductions for every 1-mmol/L decrease in LDL-C were 15.6%, 28.0%, and 26.6%, respectively. Similar relationships were observed in patients without CHD. No significant relationship was found between lipid reduction and non-CHD-related mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: The results from the present analysis support conclusions from previous meta-analyses that cholesterol lowering is clinically beneficial in patients with CHD or at elevated CHD risk. These results also support the previous finding that non-CHD-related mortality is unrelated to lipid reductions.

Efficacy of a pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in reducing rotavirus-associated health care utilization across three regions (11 countries).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of a human-bovine reassortant pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (PRV) on health care encounters in nearly 70 000 subjects randomized in three regions - Europe, the United States, and Latin America/the Caribbean - in the Rotavirus Efficacy and Safety Trial (REST). METHODS: Healthy 6- to 12-week-old infants received 3 doses of PRV or placebo at 4- to 10-week intervals. The exact binomial method for ratios of Poisson counts was used to evaluate the effect of PRV on the rate of rotavirus-related hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits involving rotavirus G-types 1-4 occurring > or =14 days after the third dose of vaccine for up to 2 years. RESULTS: In fully vaccinated infants, reductions in rotavirus-associated hospitalizations and ED visits were 94.7% (95% CI: 90.9, 96.9) in Europe, 94.9% (95% CI: 84.0, 98.9) in the United States, and 90.0% (95% CI: 29.4, 99.8) in the Latin American/Caribbean regions. CONCLUSIONS: PRV reduced hospitalizations and ED visits within each region in REST. Results were consistent across regions and across the overall study cohort.

Projected coronary heart disease risk benefit with ezetimibe.

Low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and total cholesterol (TC) are the primary clinical parameters of interest for any cholesterol intervention. Clinicians are interested in how the reduction of these lipid parameters as well as increases in high density lipoprotein (HDL) relate to changes in coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the additional CHD risk reduction that could potentially be provided by co-administration of ezetimibe with statin therapy. Data from four double-blind placebo controlled clinical trials were used to predict the level of CHD risk reduction that might be achieved by co-administration of ezetimibe with statin therapy when compared to those receiving statin as monotherapy. Patients without a previous history of CHD were included in the analysis. Projected CHD risk reduction was calculated as percent change in projected CHD risk from baseline to 12 weeks based on observed lipid levels at those time points. For all the studies combined greater reductions in percent change in 5-year CHD risk were observed for patients receiving ezetimibe and statin as co-therapy, 53.4%, when compared to those receiving statin alone, 39.7%. Co-administration of ezetimibe with statin therapy provides an additional 13.7% reduction in predicted 5-year CHD risk when compared to statin monotherapy. Reductions in 5-year CHD risk for each of the statin studies ranged from 16.1% for lovastatin to 9.8% for atorvastatin. Co-administration of ezetimibe with statins could significantly reduce CHD events in patients with primary hypercholesterolemia.

Impact of indinavir on the quality of life in patients with advanced HIV infection treated with zidovudine and lamivudine.

OBJECTIVE: In AIDS Clinical Trial Group (ACTG) study 320, triple-combination antiretroviral therapy including indinavir significantly slowed progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death, compared with treatment with dual nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) alone, in zidovudine-experienced patients with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We examined the impact of indinavir on quality of life in participants from this study. METHODS: A total of 1156 protease inhibitor- and lamivudine-naive patients stratified by CD4 cell count (

Development and validation of a model to project the long-term benefit and cost of alternative lipid-lowering strategies in patients with hypercholesterolaemia.

INTRODUCTION: Patients not currently reaching their lipid goals, even with the use of statins, are at elevated coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Ezetimibe, when coadministered with a patient's current statin, has been shown to effectively reduce cholesterol in patients with hypercholesterolaemia. In order to help healthcare decision makers assess the cost effectiveness of this treatment strategy, a model is needed to compare ezetimibe coadministration versus alternative statin titration strategies among patients who have failed to reach their lipid goal with their current statin dose. METHODS: A flexible decision-analytic model that projects the long-term benefit and cost of alternative lipid-lowering strategies is described. Using a Markov process, the model allows movement from one health state to another based on the predicted risk of CHD events (fatal and nonfatal) and the risk of death from non-CHD causes. Each health state can be assigned a quality-of-life weight and an expected cost in order to determine the total survival time, quality-adjusted survival time and cost associated with the alternative treatment strategies. The accuracy of the model in projecting the percentage of patients who experience fatal and nonfatal CHD events was assessed by using individual baseline patient characteristics from two long-term outcomes trials: the Air Force Coronary Atherosclerosis Prevention Study, a primary prevention trial, and the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study, a secondary prevention trial. RESULTS: Compared with event rates in the two outcome trials, the model appears to underestimate both the absolute risk of nonfatal CHD events and its reduction due to lipid lowering. But the model appears to provide reasonable estimates of the absolute reduction in fatal CHD events following lipid treatment. DISCUSSION: The model will allow one to assess the cost effectiveness of alternative treatment strategies for hypercholesterolaemia including statin titration and the coadministration of ezetimibe in patients who have failed to reach their lipid goal with a statin. Because the benefit of reducing nonfatal CHD events may be underestimated, the model may overestimate the cost-effectiveness ratio of ezetimibe coadministration.

Cost-effectiveness of ezetimibe coadministration in statin-treated patients not at cholesterol goal: application to Germany, Spain and Norway.

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing use of statins, many hypercholesterolaemic patients fail to reach their lipid goal and remain at elevated risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Alternative treatment strategies, such as ezetimibe coadministration and statin titration, can help patients achieve greater lipid control, and thereby lower their CHD risk. But is it cost effective to more aggressively lower cholesterol levels across a broad range of current statin users? METHODS: Using a decision-analytic model based on epidemiological and clinical trials data, we project the lifetime benefit and cost of alternative lipid-lowering treatment strategies for CHD and non-CHD diabetic patients in Germany, Spain and Norway. RESULTS: It is projected that from 40% to 76% of these patients who have failed to reach their lipid goal with their current statin treatment will be able to reach their goal with ezetimibe coadministration; this represents a gain of up to an additional absolute 14% who will be able to reach their goal compared with a 'titrate to goal' strategy where patients are titrated in order to reach their lipid goal (up to the maximum approved dose). For CHD patients, the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ezetimibe coadministration is under Euro 18 000 per life-year gained (Euro/LYG) and 26 000 Euro/LYG compared with strategies based on the observed titration rates and the aggressive 'titrate to goal' strategy, respectively; for non-CHD diabetic patients, these ratios are under 26 000 Euro/LYG and 48 000 Euro/LYG for ezetimibe coadministration compared with the two titration strategies. CONCLUSION: Compared with statin titration, ezetimibe coadministration is projected to be cost effective in the populations and countries studied.

Assessing the appropriateness of combining economic data from multinational clinical trials.

Because of the potential for large variability among countries in the utilization and cost of health care resources, it is important to assess the appropriateness of combining economic data across the countries in a multinational clinical economic trial. We show how available tests for interaction can be applied to economic endpoints, including cost-effectiveness ratios and net health benefits. This analysis includes a characterization of possible interactions being quantitative or qualitative in nature. In the absence of interaction, a pooled estimate of the economic endpoint should be representative of the participating countries. We explore the analytic issues by further analysing data from the Scandinavian Simvastatin Survival Study (4S).

Losartan reduces the costs associated with diabetic end-stage renal disease: the RENAAL study economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the within-trial effect of losartan and conventional antihypertensive therapy (CT) compared with placebo and CT on the economic cost associated with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Reduction of End Points in Type 2 Diabetes With the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) study was a multinational double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial designed to evaluate the renal protective effects of losartan on a background of CT (excluding ACE inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor agonists [AIIAs]) in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. The primary composite end point was doubling of serum creatinine, ESRD, or death. Data on the duration of ESRD were used to estimate the economic benefits of slowing the progression of nephropathy. The cost associated with ESRD was estimated by combining the days each patient experienced ESRD with the cost of ESRD over time. The cost of ESRD for individuals with diabetes was estimated using data from the U.S. Renal Data System. Total cost was estimated as the sum of the cost associated with ESRD and the cost of study therapy. RESULTS-We estimated that losartan and CT compared with placebo and CT reduced the number of days with ESRD by 33.6 per patient over 3.5 years (P = 0.004, 95% CI 10.9-56.3). This reduction in ESRD days resulted in a decrease in cost associated with ESRD of 5144 US dollars per patient (P = 0.003, 95% CI 1701 to 8587 US dollars). After accounting for the cost of losartan, the reduction in ESRD days resulted in a net savings of 3522 US dollars per patient over 3.5 years (P = 0.041, 143 to 6900 US dollars). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with losartan in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy not only reduced the incidence of ESRD, but also resulted in substantial cost savings.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of an early invasive vs conservative strategy for the treatment of unstable angina and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

CONTEXT: In the Treat Angina with Aggrastat and Determine Cost of Therapy with an Invasive or Conservative Strategy (TACTICS)-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) 18 trial, patients with either unstable angina or non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI) treated with the platelet glycoprotein (Gp IIb/IIIa) inhibitor tirofiban had a significantly reduced rate of major cardiac events at 6 months with an early invasive vs a conservative strategy. OBJECTIVE: To examine total 6-month costs and long-term cost-effectiveness of an invasive vs a conservative strategy. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial including a priori economic end points. SETTING: Hospitalization for UA/NSTEMI with 6-month follow-up period. PATIENTS: A total of 2220 patients with UA/NSTEMI; economic data from 1722 patients at US-non-VA hospitals. INTERVENTION: Early invasive strategy with routine catheterization and revascularization as appropriate vs a conservative strategy with catheterization performed only for recurrent ischemia or a positive stress test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Total 6-month costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: The average initial hospitalization costs among those in the invasive strategy group were $15714 vs $14047 among those in the conservative strategy group, a difference of $1667 (95% confidence interval [CI], $387-3091). The in-hospital costs were offset significantly at the 6-month follow-up, with an average cost in the invasive group of $6098 vs $7180 in the conservative group, a difference of $1082 (95% CI, -$2051 to $76). The average total costs at 6 months, including productivity costs, for the invasive group was $21 813 vs $21 227 for the conservative group, a $586 difference (95% CI, -$1087 to $2486). The average 6-month costs excluding productivity costs in the invasive group was $19 780 vs $19 111 in the conservative group, a difference of $670, 95% CI; (-$1035 to $2321). Estimated cost per year of life gained for the invasive strategy, based on projected life expectancy, was $12739 for the base case, and ranged from $8371 to $25769, based on model assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with UA/NSTEMI treated with the Gp IIb/IIIa inhibitor tirofiban, the clinical benefit of an early invasive strategy was achieved with a small increase in cost, yielding favorable projected estimates of cost per year of life gained. These results support the broader use of an early invasive strategy in these patients.