Predicting and containing epidemic risk using on-line friendship networks.

To what extent can online social networks predict who is at risk of an infection? Many infections are transmitted through physical encounter between humans, but collecting detailed information about it can be expensive, might invade privacy, or might not even be possible. In this paper, we ask whether online social networks help predict and contain epidemic risk. Using a dataset from a popular online review service which includes over 100 thousand users and spans 4 years of activity, we build a time-varying network that is a proxy of physical encounter between its users (the encounter network) and a static network based on their reported online friendship (the friendship With computer simulations, we compare stochastic infection processes on the two networks, considering infections on the encounter network as the benchmark. First, we show that the friendship network is useful to identify the individuals at risk of infection, despite providing lower accuracy than the ideal case in which the encounters are known. This limited prediction accuracy is not only due to the static nature of the friendship network because a static version of the encounter network provides more accurate prediction of risk than the friendship network. Then, we show that periodical monitoring of the infection spreading on the encounter network allows to correct the infection predicted by a process spreading on the friendly staff ndship network, and achieves high prediction accuracy. Finally, we show that the friendship network contains valuable information to effectively contain epidemic outbreaks even when a limited budget is available for immunization. In particular, a strategy that immunizes random friends of random individuals achieves the same performance as knowing individuals' encounters at a small additional cost, even if the infection spreads on the encounter network.

Weather impacts expressed sentiment.

We conduct the largest ever investigation into the relationship between meteorological conditions and the sentiment of human expressions. To do this, we employ over three and a half billion social media posts from tens of millions of individuals from both Facebook and Twitter between 2009 and 2016. We find that cold temperatures, hot temperatures, precipitation, narrower daily temperature ranges, humidity, and cloud cover are all associated with worsened expressions of sentiment, even when excluding weather-related posts. We compare the magnitude of our estimates with the effect sizes associated with notable historical events occurring within our data.

Detecting emotional contagion in massive social networks.

Happiness and other emotions spread between people in direct contact, but it is unclear whether massive online social networks also contribute to this spread. Here, we elaborate a novel method for measuring the contagion of emotional expression. With data from millions of Facebook users, we show that rainfall directly influences the emotional content of their status messages, and it also affects the status messages of friends in other cities who are not experiencing rainfall. For every one person affected directly, rainfall alters the emotional expression of about one to two other people, suggesting that online social networks may magnify the intensity of global emotional synchrony.

Human matching behavior in social networks: an algorithmic perspective.

We argue that algorithmic modeling is a powerful approach to understanding the collective dynamics of human behavior. We consider the task of pairing up individuals connected over a network, according to the following model: each individual is able to propose to match with and accept a proposal from a neighbor in the network; if a matched individual proposes to another neighbor or accepts another proposal, the current match will be broken; individuals can only observe whether their neighbors are currently matched but have no knowledge of the network topology or the status of other individuals; and all individuals have the common goal of maximizing the total number of matches. By examining the experimental data, we identify a behavioral principle called prudence, develop an algorithmic model, analyze its properties mathematically and by simulations, and validate the model with human subject experiments for various network sizes and topologies. Our results include i) a 1/2-approximate maximum matching is obtained in logarithmic time in the network size for bounded degree networks; ii) for any constant ε > 0, a (1 - ε)-approximate maximum matching is obtained in polynomial time, while obtaining a maximum matching can require an exponential time; and iii) convergence to a maximum matching is slower on preferential attachment networks than on small-world networks. These results allow us to predict that while humans can find a "good quality" matching quickly, they may be unable to find a maximum matching in feasible time. We show that the human subjects largely abide by prudence, and their collective behavior is closely tracked by the above predictions.