24 hour movement behaviours and the health and development of pre-school children from Zimbabwean settings: the SUNRISE pilot study.

Background: In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) released global guidelines for physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep for the early years. The International Study of Movement Behaviours in the Early Years, SUNRISE, aimed to assess the extent to which children aged three and four years meet the WHO global guidelines and its association with health and development. Objectives: To assess movement behaviours in pre-school children from low-income settings in Zimbabwe and to establish associations between these movement behaviours and adiposity, motor skills and executive function. Methods: Pre-school children/caregivers were recruited from two urban and two rural public schools respectively in Zimbabwe. The caregivers answered questions on the children's physical activity, screen time, sedentary behaviour and sleep patterns. Children's movement behaviours were objectively measured using accelerometers. Gross and fine motor skills and executive function were assessed using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire-3 and Early Years Toolbox, respectively. Focus group discussions were carried out with caregivers and teachers on the acceptability and feasibility of the study. Results: Eighty-one children participated in the study. The proportions of children meeting the guidelines were physical activity 92%, sedentary behaviour 70%, and sleep 86%, and all guidelines combined 24%. Boys and girls were similar (p>0.05 for all variables) for all executive function variables, but rural children had significantly lower inhibition scores (p=0.026) than urban children. Conclusion: The study adds to the growing literature on movement behaviours and associated risk factors in low-resourced settings. Further investigations of movement behaviours in this age group in Zimbabwe are recommended.

POPPIE: protocol for a randomised controlled pilot trial of continuity of midwifery care for women at increased risk of preterm birth.

BACKGROUND: High rates of preterm births remain a UK public health concern. Preterm birth is a major determinant of adverse infant and longer-term outcomes, including survival, quality of life, psychosocial effects on the family and health care costs. We aim to test whether a model of care combining continuity of midwife care with rapid referral to a specialist obstetric clinic throughout pregnancy, intrapartum and the postpartum period is feasible and improves experience and outcomes for women at increased risk of preterm birth. METHODS: This pilot, hybrid, type 2 randomised controlled implementation trial will recruit 350 pregnant women at increased risk of preterm birth to a midwifery continuity of care intervention or standard care. The intervention will be provided from recruitment (antenatal), labour, birth and the postnatal period, in hospital and community settings and in collaboration with specialist obstetric clinic care, when required. Standard care will be the current maternity care provision by NHS midwives and obstetricians at the study site. Participants will be followed up until 6-8 weeks postpartum. The composite primary outcome is the appropriate initiation of any specified interventions related to the prevention and/or management of preterm labour and birth. Secondary outcomes are related to: recruitment and attrition rates; implementation; acceptability to women, health care professionals and stakeholders; health in pregnancy and other complications; intrapartum outcomes; maternal and neonatal postnatal outcomes; psycho-social health; quality of care; women's experiences and health economic analysis. The trial has 80% power to detect a 15% increase in the rate of appropriate interventions (40 to 55%). The analysis will be by 'intention to treat' analysis. DISCUSSION: Little is known about the underlying reasons why and how models of midwifery continuity of care are associated with fewer preterm births, better maternal and infant outcomes and more positive experiences; nor how these models of care can be implemented successfully in the health services. This will be the first study to provide direct evidence regarding the effectiveness, implementation and evaluation of a midwifery continuity of care model and rapid access to specialist obstetric services for women at increased risk of preterm birth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN37733900 . Retrospectively registered on 21 August 2017.

Three-dimensional polarization algebra for all polarization sensitive optical systems.

Using three-dimensional (3D) coherency vector (9 × 1), we develop a new 3D polarization algebra to calculate the polarization properties of all polarization sensitive optical systems, especially when the incident optical field is partially polarized or un-polarized. The polarization properties of a high numerical aperture (NA) microscope objective (NA = 1.25 immersed in oil) are analyzed based on the proposed 3D polarization algebra. Correspondingly, the polarization simulation of this high NA optical system is performed by the commercial software VirtualLAB Fusion. By comparing the theoretical calculations with polarization simulations, a perfect matching relation is obtained, which demonstrates that this 3D polarization algebra is valid to quantify the 3D polarization properties for all polarization sensitive optical systems.

Estimating Loss of Brucella Abortus Antibodies from Age-Specific Serological Data In Elk.

Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

Energetic costs of mange in wolves estimated from infrared thermography.

Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with a data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2-12 MJ per night (1,240-2,850 kcal, or a 65-78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively, accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8, and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level, mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

Social living mitigates the costs of a chronic illness in a cooperative carnivore.

Infection risk is assumed to increase with social group size, and thus be a cost of group living. We assess infection risk and costs with respect to group size using data from an epidemic of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) among grey wolves (Canis lupus). We demonstrate that group size does not predict infection risk and that individual costs of infection, in terms of reduced survival, can be entirely offset by having sufficient numbers of pack-mates. Infected individuals experience increased mortality hazards with increasing proportions of infected pack-mates, but healthy individuals remain unaffected. The social support of group hunting and territory defence are two possible mechanisms mediating infection costs. This is likely a common phenomenon among other social species and chronic infections, but difficult to detect in systems where infection status cannot be measured continuously over time.

Development of a technical external quality assurance scheme in non-gynaecological cytology in UK.

Technical external quality assurance (EQA) schemes are well established for histopathology and cervical cytology but, to date, sadly lacking for diagnostic cytology (DC). This timely review redresses the balance by describing the development and evaluation of a technical EQA scheme for DC available to the UK, Europe and beyond.

Large contribution of human papillomavirus in vaginal neoplastic lesions: a worldwide study in 597 samples.

AIM: This work describes the human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and the HPV type distribution in a large series of vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VAIN) grades 2/3 and vaginal cancer worldwide. METHODS: We analysed 189 VAIN 2/3 and 408 invasive vaginal cancer cases collected from 31 countries from 1986 to 2011. After histopathological evaluation of sectioned formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples, HPV DNA detection and typing was performed using the SPF-10/DNA enzyme immunoassay (DEIA)/LiPA25 system (version 1). A subset of 146 vaginal cancers was tested for p16(INK4a) expression, a cellular surrogate marker for HPV transformation. Prevalence ratios were estimated using multivariate Poisson regression with robust variance. RESULTS: HPV DNA was detected in 74% (95% confidence interval (CI): 70-78%) of invasive cancers and in 96% (95% CI: 92-98%) of VAIN 2/3. Among cancers, the highest detection rates were observed in warty-basaloid subtype of squamous cell carcinomas, and in younger ages. Concerning the type-specific distribution, HPV16 was the most frequently type detected in both precancerous and cancerous lesions (59%). p16(INK4a) overexpression was found in 87% of HPV DNA positive vaginal cancer cases. CONCLUSIONS: HPV was identified in a large proportion of invasive vaginal cancers and in almost all VAIN 2/3. HPV16 was the most common type detected. A large impact in the reduction of the burden of vaginal neoplastic lesions is expected among vaccinated cohorts.

Uterine corpus metastasis in stage IA1 squamous carcinoma of the cervix.

•Treatment of stage 1A1 cancer of the cervix often involves preservation of the corpus.•Rarely metastasis to the corpus can occur in these cases.

Female elk contacts are neither frequency nor density dependent.

Identifying drivers of contact rates among individuals is critical to understanding disease dynamics and implementing targeted control measures. We studied the interaction patterns of 149 female elk (Cervus canadensis) distributed across five different regions of western Wyoming over three years, defining a contact as an approach within one body length (-2 min). Using hierarchical models that account for correlations within individuals, pairs, and groups, we found that pairwise contact rates within a group declined by a factor of three as group sizes increased 33-fold. Per capita contact rates, however, increased with group size according to a power function, such that female elk contact rates fell in between the predictions of density- or frequency-dependent disease models. We found similar patterns for the duration of contacts. Our results suggest that larger elk groups are likely to play a disproportionate role in the disease dynamics of directly transmitted infections in elk. Supplemental feeding of elk had a limited impact on pairwise interaction rates and durations, but per capita rates were more than two times higher on feeding grounds. Our statistical approach decomposes the variation in contact rate into individual, dyadic, and environmental effects, and provides insight into factors that may be targeted by disease control programs. In particular, female elk contact patterns were driven more by environmental factors such as group size than by either individual or dyad effects.

An ecological perspective on Brucella abortus in the western United States.

After a hiatus during the 1990s, outbreaks of Brucella abortus in cattle are occurring more frequently in some of the western states of the United States, namely, Montana, Wyoming and Idaho. This increase is coincidentwith increasing brucellosis seroprevalence in elk (Cervus elaphus), which is correlated with elk density. Vaccines are a seductive solution, but their use in wildlife systems remains limited by logistical, financial, and scientific constraints. Cattle vaccination is ongoing in the region. Livestock regulations, however, tend to be based on serological tests that test for previous exposure and available vaccines do not protect against seroconversion. The authors review recent ecological studies of brucellosis, with particular emphasis on the Greater Yellowstone Area, and highlight the management options and implications of this work, including the potential utility of habitat modifications and targeted hunts, as well as scavengers and predators. Finally, the authors discuss future research directions that will help us to understand and manage brucellosis in wildlife.

Subclinical infection and asymptomatic carriage of gastrointestinal zoonoses: occupational exposure, environmental pathways, and the anonymous spread of disease.

Asymptomatic carriage of gastrointestinal zoonoses is more common in people whose profession involves them working directly with domesticated animals. Subclinical infections (defined as an infection in which symptoms are either asymptomatic or sufficiently mild to escape diagnosis) are important within a community as unknowing (asymptomatic) carriers of pathogens do not change their behaviour to prevent the spread of disease; therefore the public health significance of asymptomatic human excretion of zoonoses should not be underestimated. However, optimal strategies for managing diseases where asymptomatic carriage instigates further infection remain unresolved, and the impact on disease management is unclear. In this review we consider the environmental pathways associated with prolonged antigenic exposure and critically assess the significance of asymptomatic carriage in disease outbreaks. Although screening high-risk groups for occupationally acquired diseases would be logistically problematical, there may be an economic case for identifying and treating asymptomatic carriage if the costs of screening and treatment are less than the costs of identifying and treating those individuals infected by asymptomatic hosts.

High-grade vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia: can we be selective about who we treat?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the role of conservative management in high-grade vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (HG VaIN). DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre, Gateshead, UK. POPULATION: A total of 100 women with histologically-proven HG VaIN. METHODS: Review of patient records from 1995 to 2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of progression to cancer, treatment remission, and disease recurrence, particularly post-treatment when vaginoscopy is normal but cytology is abnormal. RESULTS: Of 100 women referred, 69 underwent initial treatment of whom 47 (68%) went into remission: of these, seven developed a recurrence after a median follow-up of 29 months (range 15-214 months). Of the 31 women managed conservatively with cytological and vaginoscopic surveillance, no cancers developed after a median follow-up of 35 months (range 2-230 months). Rate of overall progression to cancer was 3% and all were detected among the initial treatment group after a median of 59 months (range 8-249 months). Post-treatment, when normal vaginoscopy was accompanied by abnormal cytology, two categories existed. Of 24 cases with low-grade cytological abnormality, recurrence of HG VaIN occurred in seven (29%) after a median follow-up of 12 months (range 2-110 months). Of 19 cases with HG cytological abnormality, 15 (79%) developed recurrence at a median follow-up of 7 months (range 2-21 months), giving a hazard ratio 5.6 (95% confidence interval 2.0-15.5, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to select women with HG VaIN for conservative surveillance with excellent results. The majority of women undergoing initial treatment will enter remission. Post-treatment, if cytological abnormality develops in the presence of normal vaginoscopy, the majority of women will develop histological HG VaIN recurrence.

Tumour-free distance from serosa is a better prognostic indicator than depth of invasion and percentage myometrial invasion in endometrioid endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic performance of tumour-free distance (TFD) compared with depth of invasion (DOI) and percentage of myometrial invasion (MI). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Regional gynaecological oncology centre. POPULATION: All women identified with stage I-III endometrioid endometrial carcinoma from January 2000 to December 2007, who had surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC). METHODS: Surgicopathological, follow-up and survival data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed comparing TFD, DOI and MI with known prognostic factors. The prognostic accuracy of TFD was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, and an optimum cut-off was proposed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death from disease, recurrence and pelvic lymph node involvement. RESULTS: A total of 288 women were identified. The median follow-up time was 67 months, with 40 recurrences and 32 disease-related deaths. When TFD, DOI and MI were separately examined in multivariate analyses with other covariates, TFD was an independent predictor of death from disease (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.00-1.48; P = 0.05). In multivariate analyses including all three measures together (TFD, DOI and MI), TFD was an independent predictor of death from disease (HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.03-2.16; P = 0.04) and recurrence (HR 1.39; 95% CI 1.01-1.91; P = 0.05). TFD was also an independent predictor of lymph node involvement when examined separately (OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.56-0.96; P = 0.03), and together with DOI and MI (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.49-0.92; P = 0.01), in women who had pelvic lymphadenectomy (n = 86). A TFD cut-off of 1.75 mm showed good prognostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: The TFD measure may be a more accurate method of representing myometrial invasion in the staging for endometrial cancer.

Combining risk assessment and epidemiological risk factors to elucidate the sources of human E. coli O157 infection.

E. coli O157 can be transmitted to humans by three primary (foodborne, environmental, waterborne) and one secondary (person-to-person transmission) pathways. A regression model and quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) were applied to determine the relative importance of the primary transmission pathways in NE Scotland. Both approaches indicated that waterborne infection was the least important but it was unclear whether food or the environment was the main source of infection. The QMRAs over-predicted the number of cases by a factor of 30 and this could be because all E. coli O157 strains may not be equally infective and/or the level of infectivity in the dose-response model was too high. The efficacy of potential risk mitigation strategies to reduce human exposure to E. coli O157 using QMRAs was simulated. Risk mitigation strategies focusing on food and environment are likely to have the biggest impact on infection figures.

Intra-operative frozen section analysis for suspected early-stage ovarian cancer: 11 years of Gateshead Cancer Centre experience.

OBJECTIVE: In centres in which intra-operative frozen section (FS) analysis is not performed, 'apparent' early-stage ovarian cancer diagnosed after surgery on paraffin section may require further restaging laparotomy or adjuvant chemotherapy. Previous studies on FS analysis have reported high sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy. The objective of this article is to present the largest published dataset on the accuracy of FS analysis over an 11-year period from a single institution. DESIGN: Diagnostic test accuracy. SETTING: Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre and Department of Cellular Pathology, Gateshead, UK. POPULATION: 1439 intra-operative FS analyses performed between January 2000 and December 2010 for suspected ovarian cancer. METHODS: Prospectively collected data on FS analysis were compared with gold standard paraffin section. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity and specificity of FS analysis were 91.2% and 98.6%, respectively. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 64.7% and 0.09%, respectively. The pre-test probability of an ovarian tumour being borderline or malignant was 45.8%. When FS analysis was reported to be positive, the post-test probability increased to 98% (confidence interval, 97-99%). Conversely, when FS analysis was reported to be negative, the post-test probability decreased to 7% (confidence interval, 6-9%). The majority of false test results were either borderline tumours or of mucinous differentiation. CONCLUSIONS: Intra-operative FS analysis has excellent diagnostic test accuracy and assists gynaecological oncologists to perform the appropriate surgery in 95% of cases, thereby preventing the morbidity of surgical staging in benign cases and the morbidity of restaging procedures or chemotherapy in early-stage malignant tumours.

Eliciting expert opinion on the effectiveness and practicality of interventions in the farm and rural environment to reduce human exposure to Escherichia coli O157.

Few hard data are available on emergent diseases. However, the need to mitigate and manage emergent diseases has prompted the use of various expert consultation and opinion elicitation methods. We adapted best-worst scaling (BWS) to elicit experts' assessment of the relative practicality and effectiveness of measures to reduce human exposure to E. coli O157. Cattle vaccination was considered the most effective and hand-washing was considered the most practical measure. BWS proved a powerful tool for expert elicitation as it breaks down a cognitively burdensome process into simple, repeated, tasks. In addition, statistical analysis of the resulting data provides a scaled set of scores for the measures, rather than just a ranking. The use of two criteria (practicality and effectiveness) within the BWS process allows the identification of subsets of measures judged as potentially performing well on both criteria, and conversely those judged to be neither effective nor practical.

The relationship between lay and technical views of Escherichia coli O157 risk.

Here, we bring together and contrast lay (accessible primarily through social science methodologies) and technical (via risk assessment and epidemiological techniques) views of the risk associated with the Escherichia coli O157 pathogen using two case study areas in the Grampian region of Scotland, and North Wales. Epidemiological risk factors of contact with farm animals, visiting farms or farm fields and having a private water supply were associated with postcode districts of higher than average disease incidence in the human population. However, this was not the case for the epidemiological risk factor of consumption of beef burgers, which was independent of disease incidence in the postcode district of residence. The proportion of the population expressing a high knowledge of E. coli O157 was greatest in high-incidence disease districts compared with low-incidence areas (17% cf. 7%). This supports the hypothesis that in high-disease-incidence areas, residents are regularly exposed to information about the disease through local cases, the media, local social networks, etc. or perhaps that individuals are more likely to be motivated to find out about it. However, no statistically significant difference was found between high- and low-incidence postcode districts in terms of the proportion of the population expressing a high likelihood of personal risk of infection (10% cf. 14%), giving a counterintuitive difference between the technical (epidemiological and quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA)) and the lay assessment of E. coli O157 risk. This suggests that lay evaluations of E. coli O157 risk reflect intuitive and experience-based estimates of the risk rather than probabilistic estimates. A generally strong correspondence was found in terms of the rank order given to potential infection pathways, with environment and foodborne infection routes dominating when comparing public understanding with technical modelling results. Two general conclusions follow from the work. First, that integrative research incorporating both lay and technical views of risk is required in order that informed decisions can be made to handle or treat the risk by the groups concerned (e.g. the public, policy makers/risk managers, etc.). Second, when communicating risk, for example, through education programmes, it is important that this process is two-way with risk managers (e.g. including Food Standards Agency officials and communications team, public health infection control and environmental health officers) both sharing information with the public and stakeholder groups, as well as incorporating public knowledge, values and context (e.g. geographical location) into risk-management decisions.