How prices and income influence global patterns in saturated fat intake by age, sex and world region: a cross-sectional analysis of 160 countries.

OBJECTIVE: When considering proposals to improve diets, it is important to understand how factors like price and income can affect saturated fat (SF) intake and demand. In this study, we examine and estimate the influence of price and income on intake across 160 countries, by age and sex, and derive sensitivity measures (price elasticities) that vary by age, sex and world region. DESIGN: We econometrically estimate intake responsiveness to income and prices across countries, accounting for differences by world region, age and sex. Intake data by age, sex and country were obtained from the 2018 Global Dietary Database. These data were then linked to global price data for select food groups from the World Bank International Comparison Programme and income data from the World Development Indicators Databank (World Bank). RESULTS: Intake differences due to price were highly significant, with a 1% increase in price associated with a lower SF intake (% energy/d) of about 4.3 percentage points. We also find significant differences across regions. In high-income countries, median (age 40) intake reductions were 1.4, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points, given a 1% increase in the price of meat, dairy, and oils and fats, respectively. Price elasticities varied with age but not sex. Intake differences due to income were insignificant when regional binary variables were included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: The results of this study show heterogeneous associations among prices and intake within and across countries. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneous effects as they address global nutrition and health challenges.

Sugar-sweetened beverage intakes among adults between 1990 and 2018 in 185 countries.

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are associated with cardiometabolic diseases and social inequities. For most nations, recent estimates and trends of intake are not available; nor variation by education or urbanicity. We investigated SSB intakes among adults between 1990 and 2018 in 185 countries, stratified subnationally by age, sex, education, and rural/urban residence, using data from the Global Dietary Database. In 2018, mean global SSB intake was 2.7 (8 oz = 248 grams) servings/week (95% UI 2.5-2.9) (range: 0.7 (0.5-1.1) in South Asia to 7.8 (7.1-8.6) in Latin America/Caribbean). Intakes were higher in male vs. female, younger vs. older, more vs. less educated, and urban vs. rural adults. Variations by education and urbanicity were largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1990 and 2018, SSB intakes increased by +0.37 (+0.29, +0.47), with the largest increase in Sub-Saharan Africa. These findings inform intervention, surveillance, and policy actions worldwide, highlighting the growing problem of SSBs for public health in Sub-Saharan Africa.

What is the cost-effectiveness of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens? An economic evaluation of a federal policy intervention among 235 million adults in the USA.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens in the USA. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov cohort state-transition model. SETTING: Policy intervention. PARTICIPANTS: A modelled population of 235 million adults aged ≥20 years in 2015-2016. INTERVENTIONS: The impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing 13 obesity-associated cancers among US adults over a lifetime was evaluated for: (1) effects on consumer behaviours; and (2) additional effects on industry reformulation. The model integrated nationally representative demographics, calorie intake from restaurants, cancer statistics and estimates on associations of policy with calorie intake, dietary change with body mass index (BMI) change, BMI with cancer rates, and policy and healthcare costs from published literature. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted new cancer cases and cancer deaths and net costs (in 2015 US$) among the total population and demographic subgroups were determined. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from societal and healthcare perspectives were assessed and compared with the threshold of US$150 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Considering consumer behaviour alone, this policy was associated with 28 000 (95% UI 16 300 to 39 100) new cancer cases and 16 700 (9610 to 23 600) cancer deaths averted, 111 000 (64 800 to 158 000) QALYs gained, and US$1480 (884 to 2080) million saved in cancer-related medical costs among US adults. The policy was associated with net cost savings of US$1460 (864 to 2060) million and US$1350 (486 to 2260) million from healthcare and societal perspectives, respectively. Additional industry reformulation would substantially increase policy impact. Greater health gains and cost savings were predicted among young adults, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings suggest that menu calorie labelling is associated with lower obesity-related cancer burdens and reduced healthcare costs. Policymakers may prioritise nutrition policies for cancer prevention in the USA.

Children's and adolescents' rising animal-source food intakes in 1990-2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity.

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents' physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the world's child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 15-19 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes.

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries.

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.8-14.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.8-71.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.0-27.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.3-27.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.3-23.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.4-87.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.1-83.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.1-60.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally.

Association of National Expansion of Insurance Coverage of Medically Tailored Meals With Estimated Hospitalizations and Health Care Expenditures in the US.

Importance: Medically tailored meals (MTMs) are associated with lower health care utilization among patients with complex diet-related diseases but are not a covered benefit in Medicare or Medicaid. The potential impact of extending insurance coverage for MTMs nationally remains unknown. Objective: To estimate 1- and 10-year potential changes in annual hospitalizations, potential changes in annual health care expenditures, and overall policy cost-effectiveness associated with national MTM coverage for US patients with diet-related disease and limited instrumental activities of daily living who have Medicaid, Medicare, or private insurance. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation, conducted from January 2021 to February 2022, a nationally representative sample from the 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was used to create a population-level cohort policy simulation model that estimated changes in annual hospitalizations and health care expenditures associated with coverage of MTMs. Participants were 6 309 998 US adults aged 18 years or older who had Medicare, Medicaid, or private payer insurance and at least 1 diet-sensitive condition and 1 limitation in instrumental activities of daily living. Interventions: Ten nutritionally tailored MTMs per week for a mean of 8 months in each year of intervention. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were total hospitalizations, program costs, health care expenditures, and net policy costs. One thousand Monte Carlo simulations for each of 10 years (2019-2028) jointly incorporated uncertainty in model inputs for effect sizes, hospitalizations, health care expenditures, and program costs. Results: At the 2019 baseline, an estimated 6 309 998 US adults were eligible to receive MTMs. Mean (SD) age was 68.1 (16.6) years; most were female (63.4%), were non-Hispanic White (66.7%), and had Medicare and/or Medicaid (76.5%). The most common eligibility diagnoses were cardiovascular diseases (70.6%), diabetes (44.9%), and cancer (37.2%). If all eligible individuals received MTMs, an estimated 1 594 000 hospitalizations (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1 297 000-1 912 000) and $38.7 billion (95% UI, $24.9 billion to $53.9 billion) in health care expenditures could potentially be averted in 1 year. Program costs were $24.8 billion (95% UI, $23.1 billion to $26.8 billion), for an associated net savings of $13.6 billion (95% UI, $0.2 billion to $28.5 billion) from a health care perspective. In 2019 dollars, 10 years of the MTM intervention was anticipated to cost $298.7 billion (95% UI, $279.7 billion to $317.4 billion) and to potentially be associated with 18 257 000 averted hospitalizations (95% UI, 14 690 000-22 109 000) and reductions in health care expenditures of $484.5 billion (95% UI, $310.2 billion to $678.4 billion), for net savings of $185.1 billion (95% UI, $12.9 billion to $377.8 billion). Findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that national implementation of MTMs for patients with diet-sensitive conditions and activity limitations could potentially be associated with approximately 1.6 million averted hospitalizations and net cost savings of $13.6 billion annually. The results may inform US state, federal, and private-payer interest in expanding insurance coverage for MTMs among patients with diet-related chronic illness.

Global, regional, and national consumption of animal-source foods between 1990 and 2018: findings from the Global Dietary Database.

BACKGROUND: Diet is a major modifiable risk factor for human health and overall consumption patterns affect planetary health. We aimed to quantify global, regional, and national consumption levels of animal-source foods (ASF) to inform intervention, surveillance, and policy priorities. METHODS: Individual-level dietary surveys across 185 countries conducted between 1990 and 2018 were identified, obtained, standardised, and assessed among children and adults, jointly stratified by age, sex, education level, and rural versus urban residence. We included 499 discrete surveys (91·2% nationally or subnationally representative) with data for ASF (unprocessed red meat, processed meat, eggs, seafood, milk, cheese, and yoghurt), comprising 3·8 million individuals from 134 countries representing 95·2% of the world population in 2018. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to account for differences in survey methods and representativeness, time trends, and input data and modelling uncertainty, with five-fold cross-validation. FINDINGS: In 2018, mean global intake per person of unprocessed red meat was 51 g/day (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 48-54; region-specific range 7-114 g/day); 17 countries (23·9% of the world's population) had mean intakes of at least one serving (100 g) per day. Global mean intake of processed meat was 17 g/day (95% UI 15-21 g/day; region-specific range 3-54 g/day); seafood, 28 g/day (27-30 g/day; 12-44 g/day); eggs, 21 g/day (18-24 g/day; 6-35 g/day); milk 88 g/day (84-93 g/day; 45-185 g/day); cheese, 8 g/day (8-10 g/day; 1-34 g/day); and yoghurt, 20 g/day (17-23 g/day; 7-84 g/day). Mean national intakes were at least one serving per day for processed meat (≥50 g/day) in countries representing 6·9% of the global population; for cheese (≥42 g/day) in 2·3%; for eggs (≥55 g/day) in 0·7%; for milk (≥245 g/day) in 0·3%; for seafood (≥100 g/day) in 0·8%; and for yoghurt (≥245 g/day) in less than 0·1%. Among the 25 most populous countries in 2018, total ASF intake was highest in Russia (5·8 servings per day), Germany (3·8 servings per day), and the UK (3·7 servings per day), and lowest in Tanzania (0·9 servings per day) and India (0·7 servings per day). Global and regional intakes of ASF were generally similar by sex. Compared with children, adults generally consumed more unprocessed red meat, seafood and cheese, and less milk; energy-adjusted intakes of other ASF were more similar. Globally, ASF intakes (servings per week) were higher among more-educated versus less-educated adults, with greatest global differences for milk (0·79), eggs (0·47), unprocessed red meat (0·42), cheese (0·28), seafood (0·28), yoghurt (0·22), and processed meat (0·21). This was also true for urban compared to rural areas, with largest global differences (servings per week) for unprocessed red meat (0·47), milk (0·38), and eggs (0·20). Between 1990 and 2018, global intakes (servings per week) increased for unprocessed red meat (1·20), eggs (1·18), milk (0·63), processed meat (0·50), seafood (0·44), and cheese (0·14). INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of ASF consumption identify populations with both lower and higher than optimal intakes. These estimates can inform the targeting of intervention, surveillance, and policy priorities relevant to both human and planetary health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and American Heart Association.

Global dietary quality in 185 countries from 1990 to 2018 show wide differences by nation, age, education, and urbanicity.

Evidence on what people eat globally is limited in scope and rigour, especially as it relates to children and adolescents. This impairs target setting and investment in evidence-based actions to support healthy sustainable diets. Here we quantified global, regional and national dietary patterns among children and adults, by age group, sex, education and urbanicity, across 185 countries between 1990 and 2018, on the basis of data from the Global Dietary Database project. Our primary measure was the Alternative Healthy Eating Index, a validated score of diet quality; Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension and Mediterranean Diet Score patterns were secondarily assessed. Dietary quality is generally modest worldwide. In 2018, the mean global Alternative Healthy Eating Index score was 40.3, ranging from 0 (least healthy) to 100 (most healthy), with regional means ranging from 30.3 in Latin America and the Caribbean to 45.7 in South Asia. Scores among children versus adults were generally similar across regions, except in Central/Eastern Europe and Central Asia, high-income countries, and the Middle East and Northern Africa, where children had lower diet quality. Globally, diet quality scores were higher among women versus men, and more versus less educated individuals. Diet quality increased modestly between 1990 and 2018 globally and in all world regions except in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, where it did not improve.

Estimated economic burden of cancer associated with suboptimal diet in the United States.

PURPOSE: Suboptimal diet is a preventable cause of cancer. We aimed to estimate the economic burden of diet-associated cancer among US adults. METHODS: We used a Comparative Risk Assessment model to quantify the number of new cancer cases attributable to seven dietary factors among US adults ages 20 + years. A Markov cohort model estimated the 5-year medical costs for 15 diet-associated cancers diagnosed in 2015. We obtained dietary intake from 2013 to 2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, cancer incidence, and survival from 2008 to 2014 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, and medical costs from 2007 to 2013 linked SEER-Medicare data. RESULTS: The estimated 5-year medical costs of new diet-associated cancer cases diagnosed in 2015 were $7.44 (2018 US$). Colorectal cancer had the largest diet-related 5-year medical costs of $5.32B. Suboptimal consumption of whole grains ($2.76B), dairy ($1.82B), and high consumption of processed meats ($1.5B) accounted for the highest medical costs. Per-person medical costs attributable to suboptimal diet vary by gender, race, and age group. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal diet contributes substantially to the economic burden of diet-associated cancers among US adults. This study highlights the need to implement population-based strategies to improve diet and reduce cancer burden in the US.

Disparities in Health and Economic Burdens of Cancer Attributable to Suboptimal Diet in the United States, 2015‒2018.

Objectives. To quantify disparities in health and economic burdens of cancer attributable to suboptimal diet among US adults. Methods. Using a probabilistic cohort state-transition model, we estimated the number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths, and economic costs of 15 diet-related cancers attributable to suboptimal intake of 7 dietary factors (a low intake of fruits, vegetables, dairy, and whole grains and a high intake of red and processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages) among a closed cohort of US adults starting in 2017. Results. Suboptimal diet was estimated to contribute to 3.04 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 2.88, 3.20) million new cancer cases, 1.74 (95% UI = 1.65, 1.84) million cancer deaths, and $254 (95% UI = $242, $267) billion economic costs among US adults aged 20 years or older over a lifetime. Diet-attributable cancer burdens were higher among younger adults, men, non-Hispanic Blacks, and individuals with lower education and income attainments than other population subgroups. The largest disparities were for cancers attributable to high consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and low consumption of whole grains. Conclusions. Suboptimal diet contributes to substantial disparities in health and economic burdens of cancer among young adults, men, racial/ethnic minorities, and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(11):2008-2018. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306475).

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nutrition Facts Added-Sugar Labeling and Obesity-Associated Cancer Rates in the US.

Importance: Obesity-associated cancer burdens are increasing in the US. Nutrition policies, such as the Nutrition Facts added-sugar labeling, may reduce obesity-associated cancer rates. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nutrition Facts added-sugar labeling and obesity-associated cancer rates in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: A probabilistic cohort state-transition model was used to conduct an economic evaluation of added-sugar labeling and 13 obesity-associated cancers among 235 million adults aged 20 years or older by age, sex, and race/ethnicity over a median follow-up of 34.4 years. Policy associations were considered in 2 scenarios: with consumer behaviors and with additional industry reformulation. The model integrated nationally representative population demographics, diet, and cancer statistics; associations of policy intervention with diet, diet change and body mass index, and body mass index with cancer risk; and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Data were analyzed from January 8, 2019, to May 6, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Net costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were estimated from societal and health care perspectives. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Based on consumer behaviors, the policy was associated with a reduction of 30 000 (95% UI, 21 600-39 300) new cancer cases and 17 100 (95% UI, 12 400-22 700) cancer deaths, a gain of 116 000 (95% UI, 83 800-153 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and a saving of $1600 million (95% UI, $1190 million-$2030 million) in medical costs associated with cancer care among US adults over a lifetime. The policy was associated with a savings of $704 million (95% UI, $44.5 million-$1450 million) from the societal perspective and $1590 million (95% UI, $1180 million-$2020 million) from the health care perspective. Additional industry reformulation to reduce added-sugar amounts in packaged foods and beverages would double the impact. Greater health gains and cost savings were expected among young adults, women, and non-Hispanic Black individuals than other population subgroups. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the added-sugar labeling is associated with reduced costs and lower rates of obesity-associated cancers. Policymakers may consider and prioritize nutrition policies for cancer prevention in the US.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Hospitalizations Attributable to Cardiometabolic Conditions in the United States: A Comparative Risk Assessment Analysis.

BACKGROUND Risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization is robustly linked to cardiometabolic health. We estimated the absolute and proportional COVID-19 hospitalizations in US adults attributable to 4 major US cardiometabolic conditions, separately and jointly, and by race/ethnicity, age, and sex. METHODS AND RESULTS We used the best available estimates of independent associations of cardiometabolic conditions with a risk of COVID-19 hospitalization; nationally representative data on cardiometabolic conditions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2015 to 2018; and US COVID-19 hospitalizations stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnicity from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network database and from the COVID Tracking Project to estimate the numbers and proportions of COVID-19 hospitalizations attributable to diabetes mellitus, obesity, hypertension, and heart failure. Inputs were combined in a comparative risk assessment framework, with probabilistic sensitivity analyses and 1000 Monte Carlo simulations to jointly incorporate stratum-specific uncertainties in data inputs. As of November 18, 2020, an estimated 906 849 COVID-19 hospitalizations occurred in US adults. Of these, an estimated 20.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UIs], 18.9-22.1) of COVID-19 hospitalizations were attributable to diabetes mellitus, 30.2% (UI, 28.2-32.3) to total obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), 26.2% (UI, 24.3-28.3) to hypertension, and 11.7% (UI, 9.5-14.1) to heart failure. Considered jointly, 63.5% (UI, 61.6-65.4) or 575 419 (UI, 559 072-593 412) of COVID-19 hospitalizations were attributable to these 4 conditions. Large differences were seen in proportions of cardiometabolic risk-attributable COVID-19 hospitalizations by age and race/ethnicity, with smaller differences by sex. CONCLUSIONS A substantial proportion of US COVID-19 hospitalizations appear attributable to major cardiometabolic conditions. These results can help inform public health prevention strategies to reduce COVID-19 healthcare burdens.

Impact of diet on CVD and diabetes mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean: a comparative risk assessment analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify diet-related burdens of cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) by country, age and sex in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). DESIGN: Intakes of eleven key dietary factors were obtained from the Global Dietary Database Consortium. Aetiologic effects of dietary factors on CMD outcomes were obtained from meta-analyses. We combined these inputs with cause-specific mortality data to compute country-, age- and sex-specific absolute and proportional CMD mortality of eleven dietary factors in 1990 and 2010. SETTING: Thirty-two countries in LAC. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 25 years and older. RESULTS: In 2010, an estimated 513 371 (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 423 286-547 841; 53·8 %) cardiometabolic deaths were related to suboptimal diet. Largest diet-related CMD burdens were related to low intake of nuts/seeds (109 831 deaths (95 % UI 71 920-121 079); 11·5 %), low fruit intake (106 285 deaths (95 % UI 94 904-112 320); 11·1 %) and high processed meat consumption (89 381 deaths (95 % UI 82 984-97 196); 9·4 %). Among countries, highest CMD burdens (deaths per million adults) attributable to diet were in Trinidad and Tobago (1779) and Guyana (1700) and the lowest were in Peru (492) and The Bahamas (504). Between 1990 and 2010, greatest decline (35 %) in diet-attributable CMD mortality was related to greater consumption of fruit, while greatest increase (7·2 %) was related to increased intakes of sugar-sweetened beverages. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal intakes of commonly consumed foods were associated with substantial CMD mortality in LAC with significant heterogeneity across countries. Improved access to healthful foods, such as nuts and fruits, and limits in availability of unhealthful factors, such as processed foods, would reduce diet-related burdens of CMD in LAC.

Effect of reducing ultraprocessed food consumption on obesity among US children and adolescents aged 7-18 years: evidence from a simulation model.

BACKGROUND: Children and adolescents in the USA consume large amounts of daily calories from ultraprocessed foods (UPFs). Recent evidence links UPF consumption to increased body fat in youth. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of reducing UPF consumption on childhood obesity rate in the USA. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to project the effect of reducing UPF consumption in children's diet on reducing the prevalence of overweight or obesity among US youth. The model incorporated nationally representative data on body mass index (BMI) percentile and dietary intake of 5804 children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2016, and the effect of reducing UPF consumption on calorie intake from a recent randomised controlled trial. Uncertainties of model inputs were incorporated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 1000 simulations. RESULTS: Reducing UPFs in children's diet was estimated to result in a median of -2.09 kg/m2 (95% uncertainty interval -3.21 to -0.80) reduction in BMI among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years. The median prevalence of overweight (BMI percentile ≥85th) and obesity (BMI percentile ≥95th percentile) was reduced from 37.0% (35.9%, 38.1%) to 20.9% (15.1%, 29.9%) and from 20.1% (19.2%, 21.0%) to 11.0% (7.86%, 15.8%), respectively. Larger BMI and weight reductions were seen among boys than girls, adolescents than children, non-Hispanic black and Hispanic youth than non-Hispanic white youth, and those with lower levels of parental education and family income. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing UPF consumption in children's diet has the potential to substantially reduce childhood obesity rate among children and adolescents in the USA.

Estimated population wide benefits and risks in China of lowering sodium through potassium enriched salt substitution: modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effects of nationwide replacement of discretionary salt (used at table or during cooking) with potassium enriched salt substitute on morbidity and death from cardiovascular disease in China. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: China. POPULATION: Adult population in China, and specifically individuals with chronic kidney disease (about 17 million people). INTERVENTIONS: Comparative risk assessment models were used to estimate the effects of a nationwide intervention to replace discretionary dietary salt with potassium enriched salt substitutes (20-30% potassium chloride). The models incorporated existing data and corresponding uncertainties from randomised trials, the China National Survey of Chronic Kidney Disease, the Global Burden of Disease Study, and the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted deaths from cardiovascular disease, non-fatal events, and disability adjusted life years from a reduction in blood pressure were estimated after implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution. In individuals with chronic kidney disease, additional deaths from cardiovascular disease related to hyperkalaemia from increased intake of potassium were calculated. The net effects on deaths from cardiovascular disease were estimated as the difference and ratio of averted and additional deaths from cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Nationwide implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution could prevent about 461 000 (95% uncertainty interval 196 339 to 704 438) deaths annually from cardiovascular disease, corresponding to 11.0% (4.7% to 16.8%) of annual deaths from cardiovascular disease in China; 743 000 (305 803 to 1 273 098) non-fatal cardiovascular events annually; and 7.9 (3.3 to 12.9) million disability adjusted life years related to cardiovascular disease annually. The intervention could potentially produce an estimated 11 000 (6422 to 16 562) additional deaths related to hyperkalaemia in individuals with chronic kidney disease. The net effect would be about 450 000 (183 699 to 697 084) fewer deaths annually from cardiovascular disease in the overall population and 21 000 (1928 to 42 926) fewer deaths in individuals with chronic kidney disease. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, with changes to key model inputs and assumptions, net benefits were consistent in the total population and in individuals with chronic kidney disease, with averted deaths outweighing additional deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide potassium enriched salt substitution in China was estimated to result in a substantial net benefit, preventing around one in nine deaths from cardiovascular disease overall. Taking account of the risks of hyperkalaemia, a substantial net benefit was also estimated for individuals with chronic kidney disease.

Cost-Effectiveness of a National Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax to Reduce Cancer Burdens and Disparities in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption contributes to obesity, a risk factor for 13 cancers. Although SSB taxes can reduce intake, the health and economic impact on reducing cancer burdens in the United States are unknown, especially among low-income Americans with higher SSB intake and obesity-related cancer burdens. METHODS: We used the Diet and Cancer Outcome Model, a probabilistic cohort state-transition model, to project health gains and economic benefits of a penny-per-ounce national SSB tax on reducing obesity-associated cancers among US adults aged 20 years and older by income. RESULTS: A national SSB tax was estimated to prevent 22 075 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 16 040-28 577) new cancer cases and 13 524 (95% UI = 9841-17 681) cancer deaths among US adults over a lifetime. The policy was estimated to cost $1.70 (95% UI = $1.50-$1.95) billion for government implementation and $1.70 (95% UI = $1.48-$1.96) billion for industry compliance, while saving $2.28 (95% UI = $1.67-$2.98) billion cancer-related healthcare costs. The SSB tax was highly cost-effective from both a government affordability perspective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] = $1486, 95% UI = -$3516-$9265 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) and a societal perspective (ICER = $13 220, 95% UI = $3453-$28 120 per QALY). Approximately 4800 more cancer cases and 3100 more cancer deaths would be prevented, and $0.34 billion more healthcare cost savings would be generated among low-income (federal poverty-to-income ratio [FPIR] ≤ 1.85) than higher-income individuals (FPIR > 1.85). CONCLUSIONS: A penny-per-ounce national SSB tax is cost-effective for cancer prevention in the United States, with the largest health gains and economic benefits among low-income Americans.

Mortality attributable to sugar sweetened beverages consumption in Mexico: an update.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) were estimated to cause 12% of all diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and obesity-related cancer deaths in Mexico. Using new risk estimates for SSBs consumption, we aimed to update the fraction of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs, and provide subnational estimates by region, age, and sex. METHODS: We used an established comparative risk assessment framework. All-cause mortality estimates were calculated from a recent pooled cohort analysis. Age- and sex-specific relative risks for SSBs-disease relationships were obtained from updated meta-analyses. Demographics and nationally representative estimates of SSBs intake were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012; and mortality rates, from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Attributable mortality was calculated by estimating the population attributable fraction of each disease, with uncertainty in data inputs propagated through Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In Mexican adults 20 years and older, 6.9% (95%UI: 5.4-8.5) of all cause-mortality was attributable to SSBs, representing 40,842 excess deaths/year (95%UI: 31,950-50,138). Furthermore, 19% of diabetes, CVD and obesity-related cancer mortality was attributable to SSBs (95%UI: 11.0-26.5), representing 37,000 excess deaths/year (95%UI 21,240-51,045). Of these, 35.6% were diabetes-related (95%UI 16.4-52.0). Proportional burden was highest in the South (22.8%), followed by the Center (18.0%) and North (17.4%). Men aged 45-64-years in the Center region had highest proportional mortality (37.2%), followed by 20-44-year-old men living in the South (35.7%) and both men and women aged 20-44 living in the Center (34.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing current evidence linking SSBs to cardiometabolic disease and obesity-related cancers, earlier estimates of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs could have been underestimated. Mexico urgently needs stronger policies to reduce SSBs consumption and reduce these burdens.

Preventable Cancer Burden Associated With Poor Diet in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Diet is an important risk factor for cancer that is amenable to intervention. Estimating the cancer burden associated with diet informs evidence-based priorities for nutrition policies to reduce cancer burden in the United States. METHODS: Using a comparative risk assessment model that incorporated nationally representative data on dietary intake, national cancer incidence, and estimated associations of diet with cancer risk from meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies, we estimated the annual number and proportion of new cancer cases attributable to suboptimal intakes of seven dietary factors among US adults ages 20 years or older, and by population subgroups. RESULTS: An estimated 80 110 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 76 316 to 83 657) new cancer cases were attributable to suboptimal diet, accounting for 5.2% (95% UI = 5.0% to 5.5%) of all new cancer cases in 2015. Of these, 67 488 (95% UI = 63 583 to 70 978) and 4.4% (95% UI = 4.2% to 4.6%) were attributable to direct associations and 12 589 (95% UI = 12 156 to 13 038) and 0.82% (95% UI = 0.79% to 0.85%) to obesity-mediated associations. By cancer type, colorectal cancer had the highest number and proportion of diet-related cases (n = 52 225, 38.3%). By diet, low consumption of whole grains (n = 27 763, 1.8%) and dairy products (n = 17 692, 1.2%) and high intake of processed meats (n = 14 524, 1.0%) contributed to the highest burden. Men, middle-aged (45-64 years) and racial/ethnic minorities (non-Hispanic blacks, Hispanics, and others) had the highest proportion of diet-associated cancer burden than other age, sex, and race/ethnicity groups. CONCLUSIONS: More than 80 000 new cancer cases are estimated to be associated with suboptimal diet among US adults in 2015, with middle-aged men and racial/ethnic minorities experiencing the largest proportion of diet-associated cancer burden in the United States.

Comparative risk assessment of school food environment policies and childhood diets, childhood obesity, and future cardiometabolic mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Promising school policies to improve children's diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality. METHODS: We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5-18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted. CONCLUSION: National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life.