Limited impact of vector control on the population genetic structure of Glossina fuscipes fuscipes from the sleeping sickness focus of Maro, Chad.

Tsetse flies (genus Glossina) transmit deadly trypanosomes to human populations and domestic animals in sub-Saharan Africa. Some foci of Human African Trypanosomiasis due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (g-HAT) persist in southern Chad, where a program of tsetse control was implemented against the local vector Glossina fuscipes fuscipes in 2018 in Maro. We analyzed the population genetics of G. f. fuscipes from the Maro focus before control (T0), one year (T1), and 18 months (T2) after the beginning of control efforts. Most flies captured displayed a local genetic profile (local survivors), but a few flies displayed outlier genotypes. Moreover, disturbance of isolation by distance signature (increase of genetic distance with geographic distance) and effective population size estimates, absence of any genetic signature of a bottleneck, and an increase of genetic diversity between T0 and T2 strongly suggest gene flows from various origins, and a limited impact of the vector control efforts on this tsetse population. Continuous control and surveillance of g-HAT transmission is thus recommended in Maro. Particular attention will need to be paid to the border with the Central African Republic, a country where the entomological and epidemiological status of g-HAT is unknown.

Title: Impact limité de la lutte antivectorielle sur la structure des populations de Glossina fuscipes fuscipes dans le foyer de la maladie du sommeil de Maro, Tchad. Abstract: Les mouches tsé-tsé (genre Glossina) transmettent des trypanosomes mortels aux populations humaines ainsi qu'aux animaux domestiques en Afrique sub-saharienne. Certains foyers de la trypanosomiase humaine Africaine due à Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (THA-g) persistent au sud du Tchad, où un programme de lutte antivectorielle a été mis en place contre le vecteur local de la maladie, Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, en particulier à Maro en 2018. Nous avons analysé la structure génétique des populations de G. f. fuscipes de ce foyer à T0 (avant lutte), une année après le début de la lutte (T1), et 18 mois après (T2). La plupart des mouches capturées après le début de la lutte ont montré un profil génétique local (survivants locaux), mais quelques-unes d'entre elles présentaient des génotypes d'individus atypiques. Par ailleurs, la présence de perturbations des signatures d'isolement par la distance (augmentation de la distance génétique avec la distance géographique), l'absence de signature génétique d'un goulot d'étranglement, et un accroissement de la diversité génétique entre T0 et T2 sont des arguments forts en faveur de la recolonisation de la zone par des mouches d'origines variées, tout en témoignant des effets limités de la campagne de lutte dans ce foyer. Ces résultats conduisent à recommander une lutte et une surveillance continues dans le foyer de Maro. Une attention particulière devra par ailleurs être prêtée à l'autre côté de la rive, située côté République Centre Africaine, dont le statut épidémiologique reste inconnu concernant les tsé-tsé et la THA-g.

Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad.

Human African trypanosomiasis, caused by the gambiense subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei (gHAT), is a deadly parasitic disease transmitted by tsetse. Partners worldwide have stepped up efforts to eliminate the disease, and the Chadian government has focused on the previously high-prevalence setting of Mandoul. In this study, we evaluate the economic efficiency of the intensified strategy that was put in place in 2014 aimed at interrupting the transmission of gHAT, and we make recommendations on the best way forward based on both epidemiological projections and cost-effectiveness. In our analysis, we use a dynamic transmission model fit to epidemiological data from Mandoul to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of active screening, improved passive screening (defined as an expansion of the number of health posts capable of screening for gHAT), and vector control activities (the deployment of Tiny Targets to control the tsetse vector). For cost-effectiveness analyses, our primary outcome is disease burden, denominated in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and costs, denominated in 2020 US$. Although active and passive screening have enabled more rapid diagnosis and accessible treatment in Mandoul, the addition of vector control provided good value-for-money (at less than $750/DALY averted) which substantially increased the probability of reaching the 2030 elimination target for gHAT as set by the World Health Organization. Our transmission modelling and economic evaluation suggest that the gains that have been made could be maintained by passive screening. Our analysis speaks to comparative efficiency, and it does not take into account all possible considerations; for instance, any cessation of ongoing active screening should first consider that substantial surveillance activities will be critical to verify the elimination of transmission and to protect against the possible importation of infection from neighbouring endemic foci.

Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, a programme of vector control, screening and treatment of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) infections led to a rapid decline in cases in the Mandoul focus of Chad. To represent the biology of transmission between humans and tsetse, we previously developed a mechanistic transmission model, fitted to data between 2000 and 2013 which suggested that transmission was interrupted by 2015. The present study outlines refinements to the model to: (1) Assess whether elimination of transmission has already been achieved despite low-level case reporting; (2) quantify the role of intensified interventions in transmission reduction; and (3) predict the trajectory of gHAT in Mandoul for the next decade under different strategies. METHOD: Our previous gHAT transmission model for Mandoul was updated using human case data (2000-2019) and a series of model refinements. These include how diagnostic specificity is incorporated into the model and improvements to the fitting method (increased variance in observed case reporting and how underreporting and improvements to passive screening are captured). A side-by-side comparison of fitting to case data was performed between the models. RESULTS: We estimated that passive detection rates have increased due to improvements in diagnostic availability in fixed health facilities since 2015, by 2.1-fold for stage 1 detection, and 1.5-fold for stage 2. We find that whilst the diagnostic algorithm for active screening is estimated to be highly specific (95% credible interval (CI) 99.9-100%, Specificity = 99.9%), the high screening and low infection levels mean that some recently reported cases with no parasitological confirmation might be false positives. We also find that the focus-wide tsetse reduction estimated through model fitting (95% CI 96.1-99.6%, Reduction = 99.1%) is comparable to the reduction previously measured by the decline in tsetse catches from monitoring traps. In line with previous results, the model suggests that transmission was interrupted in 2015 due to intensified interventions. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that additional confirmatory testing is performed in Mandoul to ensure the endgame can be carefully monitored. More specific measurement of cases, would better inform when it is safe to stop active screening and vector control, provided there is a strong passive surveillance system in place.

Adding tsetse control to medical activities contributes to decreasing transmission of sleeping sickness in the Mandoul focus (Chad).

BACKGROUND: Gambian sleeping sickness or HAT (human African trypanosomiasis) is a neglected tropical disease caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense transmitted by riverine species of tsetse. A global programme aims to eliminate the disease as a public health problem by 2020 and stop transmission by 2030. In the South of Chad, the Mandoul area is a persistent focus of Gambian sleeping sickness where around 100 HAT cases were still diagnosed and treated annually until 2013. Pre-2014, control of HAT relied solely on case detection and treatment, which lead to a gradual decrease in the number of cases of HAT due to annual screening of the population. METHODS: Because of the persistence of transmission and detection of new cases, we assessed whether the addition of vector control to case detection and treatment could further reduce transmission and consequently, reduce annual incidence of HAT in Mandoul. In particular, we investigated the impact of deploying 'tiny targets' which attract and kill tsetse. Before tsetse control commenced, a census of the human population was conducted and their settlements mapped. A pre-intervention survey of tsetse distribution and abundance was implemented in November 2013 and 2600 targets were deployed in the riverine habitats of tsetse in early 2014, 2015 and 2016. Impact on tsetse and on the incidence of sleeping sickness was assessed through nine tsetse monitoring surveys and four medical surveys of the human population in 2014 and 2015. Mathematical modelling was used to assess the relative impact of tsetse control on incidence compared to active and passive screening. FINDINGS: The census indicated that a population of 38674 inhabitants lived in the vicinity of the Mandoul focus. Within this focus in November 2013, the vector is Glossina fuscipes fuscipes and the mean catch of tsetse from traps was 0.7 flies/trap/day (range, 0-26). The catch of tsetse from 44 sentinel biconical traps declined after target deployment with only five tsetse being caught in nine surveys giving a mean catch of 0.005 tsetse/trap/day. Modelling indicates that 70.4% (95% CI: 51-95%) of the reduction in reported cases between 2013 and 2015 can be attributed to vector control with the rest due to medical intervention. Similarly tiny targets are estimated to have reduced new infections dramatically with 62.8% (95% CI: 59-66%) of the reduction due to tsetse control, and 8.5% (95% 8-9%) to enhanced passive detection. Model predictions anticipate that elimination as a public health problem could be achieved by 2018 in this focus if vector control and screening continue at the present level and, furthermore, there may have been virtually no transmission since 2015. CONCLUSION: This work shows that tiny targets reduced the numbers of tsetse in this focus in Chad, which may have interrupted transmission and the combination of tsetse control to medical detection and treatment has played a major role in reducing in HAT incidence in 2014 and 2015.