Machine learning does not outperform traditional statistical modelling for kidney allograft failure prediction.

Machine learning (ML) models have recently shown potential for predicting kidney allograft outcomes. However, their ability to outperform traditional approaches remains poorly investigated. Therefore, using large cohorts of kidney transplant recipients from 14 centers worldwide, we developed ML-based prediction models for kidney allograft survival and compared their prediction performances to those achieved by a validated Cox-Based Prognostication System (CBPS). In a French derivation cohort of 4000 patients, candidate determinants of allograft failure including donor, recipient and transplant-related parameters were used as predictors to develop tree-based models (RSF, RSF-ERT, CIF), Support Vector Machine models (LK-SVM, AK-SVM) and a gradient boosting model (XGBoost). Models were externally validated with cohorts of 2214 patients from Europe, 1537 from North America, and 671 from South America. Among these 8422 kidney transplant recipients, 1081 (12.84%) lost their grafts after a median post-transplant follow-up time of 6.25 years (Inter Quartile Range 4.33-8.73). At seven years post-risk evaluation, the ML models achieved a C-index of 0.788 (95% bootstrap percentile confidence interval 0.736-0.833), 0.779 (0.724-0.825), 0.786 (0.735-0.832), 0.527 (0.456-0.602), 0.704 (0.648-0.759) and 0.767 (0.711-0.815) for RSF, RSF-ERT, CIF, LK-SVM, AK-SVM and XGBoost respectively, compared with 0.808 (0.792-0.829) for the CBPS. In validation cohorts, ML models' discrimination performances were in a similar range of those of the CBPS. Calibrations of the ML models were similar or less accurate than those of the CBPS. Thus, when using a transparent methodological pipeline in validated international cohorts, ML models, despite overall good performances, do not outperform a traditional CBPS in predicting kidney allograft failure. Hence, our current study supports the continued use of traditional statistical approaches for kidney graft prognostication.

Efficacy and safety of methylprednisolone pulse followed by oral prednisone vs. oral prednisone alone in sarcoidosis tubulointerstitial nephritis: a randomized, open-label, controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: We determine the benefit of pulsed methylprednisolone for improving kidney function in patients with sarcoidosis tubulointerstitial nephritis. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, prospective, randomized, open-label, controlled trial in patients with biopsy-proven acute tubulointerstitial nephritis caused by sarcoidosis at 21 sites in France. Patients were randomly assigned to receive a methylprednisolone pulse 15 mg/kg/day for 3 days, then oral prednisone (MP group) or oral prednisone 1 mg/kg/day alone (PRD group). The primary end point was a positive response at 3 months, defined as a doubling of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) compared with the eGFR before randomization. RESULTS: We randomized 40 participants. Baseline eGFR before PRD was 22 mL/min/1.73m2 {interquartile range [IQR], 16-44} and before MP was 25 mL/min/1.73m2 (IQR, 22-36) (P = .3). The two groups did not differ in underlying pathological lesions, including mean percentage of interstitial fibrosis and intensity of interstitial infiltrate. In the intent-to-treat population, the median eGFR at 3 months did not significantly differ between the PRD and MP groups: 45 (IQR, 34-74) and 46 (IQR, 39-65) mL/min/1.73m2. The primary end point at 3 months was achieved in 16 of 20 (80%) PRD patients and 10 of 20 (50%) MP patients (P = .0467). The eGFR was similar between the two groups after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of treatment. For both groups, eGFR at 1 month was strongly correlated with eGFR at 12 months (P < .0001). The two groups did not differ in severe adverse events. CONCLUSION: Compared with a standard oral steroid regimen, intravenous MP may have no supplemental benefit for renal function in patients with tubulointerstitial nephritis caused by sarcoidosis.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01652417; EudraCT: 2012-000149-11.

Results from a nationwide retrospective cohort measure the impact of C3 and soluble C5b-9 levels on kidney outcomes in C3 glomerulopathy.

C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) is a rare complement-mediated disease. Specific treatments are not yet available and factors predictive of kidney survival such as age, kidney function and proteinuria are not specific to C3G. The prognostic value of biomarkers of complement activation, which are pathognomonic of the diseases, remains unknown. In a large cohort of 165 patients from the French National registry, we retrospectively assess the prognostic value of C3, soluble C5b-9 (sC5b-9), C3 nephritic factor, and rare disease-predicting variants in complement genes in predicting clinical outcome of patients. By multivariate analysis age (adult onset), reduced kidney function (defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate under 60ml/min) and presence of rare disease-predicting variants in complement genes predicted risk of progression to kidney failure. Moreover, by multivariate analysis, normal C3/high sC5b-9 levels or low C3/normal sC5b-9 levels remained independently associated with a worse kidney prognosis, with the relative risk 3.7- and 8-times higher, respectively. Subgroup analysis indicated that the complement biomarker profiles independently correlated to kidney prognosis in patients with adult but not pediatric onset. In this subgroup, we showed that profiles of biomarkers C3 and/or sC5b-9 correlated with intra glomerular inflammation and may explain kidney outcomes. In children, only the presence of rare disease-predicting variants correlated with kidney survival. Thus, in an adult population, we propose a three-point C3G prognostic score based on biomarker profiles at risk, estimated glomerular filtration rate at presentation and genetic findings, which may help stratify adult patients into subgroups that require close monitoring and more aggressive therapy.

Dynamic prediction of renal survival among deeply phenotyped kidney transplant recipients using artificial intelligence: an observational, international, multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Kidney allograft failure is a common cause of end-stage renal disease. We aimed to develop a dynamic artificial intelligence approach to enhance risk stratification for kidney transplant recipients by generating continuously refined predictions of survival using updates of clinical data. METHODS: In this observational study, we used data from adult recipients of kidney transplants from 18 academic transplant centres in Europe, the USA, and South America, and a cohort of patients from six randomised controlled trials. The development cohort comprised patients from four centres in France, with all other patients included in external validation cohorts. To build deeply phenotyped cohorts of transplant recipients, the following data were collected in the development cohort: clinical, histological, immunological variables, and repeated measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria (measured using the proteinuria to creatininuria ratio). To develop a dynamic prediction system based on these clinical assessments and repeated measurements, we used a Bayesian joint models-an artificial intelligence approach. The prediction performances of the model were assessed via discrimination, through calculation of the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04258891. FINDINGS: 13 608 patients were included (3774 in the development cohort and 9834 in the external validation cohorts) and contributed 89 328 patient-years of data, and 416 510 eGFR and proteinuria measurements. Bayesian joint models showed that recipient immunological profile, allograft interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy, allograft inflammation, and repeated measurements of eGFR and proteinuria were independent risk factors for allograft survival. The final model showed accurate calibration and very high discrimination in the development cohort (overall dynamic AUC 0·857 [95% CI 0·847-0·866]) with a persistent improvement in AUCs for each new repeated measurement (from 0·780 [0·768-0·794] to 0·926 [0·917-0·932]; p<0·0001). The predictive performance was confirmed in the external validation cohorts from Europe (overall AUC 0·845 [0·837-0·854]), the USA (overall AUC 0·820 [0·808-0·831]), South America (overall AUC 0·868 [0·856-0·880]), and the cohort of patients from randomised controlled trials (overall AUC 0·857 [0·840-0·875]). INTERPRETATION: Because of its dynamic design, this model can be continuously updated and holds value as a bedside tool that could refine the prognostic judgements of clinicians in everyday practice, hence enhancing precision medicine in the transplant setting. FUNDING: MSD Avenir, French National Institute for Health and Medical Research, and Bettencourt Schueller Foundation.

Less arterial stiffness in kidney transplant recipients than chronic kidney disease patients matched for renal function.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is associated with a high cardiovascular risk. Compared with glomerular filtration rate-matched CKD patients (CKDps), we previously reported a 2.7-fold greater risk of global mortality among kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). We then examined aortic stiffness [evaluated by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV)] and cardiovascular risk in KTRs compared with CKDps with comparable measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR). METHODS: We analysed CF-PWV in two cohorts: TransplanTest (KTRs) and NephroTest (CKDps). Propensity scores were calculated including six variables: mGFR, age, sex, mean blood pressure (MBP), body mass index (BMI) and heart rate. After propensity score matching, we included 137 KTRs and 226 CKDps. Descriptive data were completed by logistic regression for CF-PWV values higher than the median (>10.6 m/s). RESULTS: At 12 months post-transplant, KTRs had significantly lower CF-PWV than CKDps (10.1 versus 11.0 m/s, P = 0.008) despite no difference at 3 months post-transplant (10.5 versus 11.0 m/s, P = 0.242). A lower occurrence of high arterial stiffness was noted among KTRs compared with CKDps (38.0% versus 57.1%, P < 0.001). It was especially associated with lower mGFR, older age, higher BMI, higher MBP, diabetes and higher serum parathyroid hormone levels. After adjustment, the odds ratio for the risk of high arterial stiffness in KTRs was 0.40 (95% confidence interval 0.23-0.68, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Aortic stiffness was significantly less marked in KTRs 1 year post-transplant than in CKDps matched for GFR and other variables. This observation is compatible with the view that the pathogenesis of post-transplant cardiovascular disease differs, at least in part, from that of CKD per se.

Living kidney donor evaluation for all candidates with normal estimated GFR for age.

Multiple days assessments are frequent for the evaluation of candidates to living kidney donation, combined with an early GFR estimation (eGFR). Living kidney donation is questionable when eGFR is <90 ml/min/1.73 m2 (KDIGO guidelines) or 80 ml/min/1.73 m2 (most US centres). However, age-related GFR decline results in a lower eGFR for older candidates. That may limit the number of older kidney donors. Yet, continuing the screening with a GFR measure increases the number of eligible donors. We hypothesized that in-depth screening should be proposed to all candidates with a normal eGFR for age. We compared the evolution of eGFR after donation between three groups of predonation eGFR: normal for age (Sage ) higher than 90 or 80 ml/min/1.73 m2 (S90 and S80, respectively); across three age groups (<45, 45-55, >55 years) in a population of 1825 French living kidney donors with a median follow-up of 5.9 years. In donors younger than 45, postdonation eGFR, absolute- and relative-eGFR variation were not different between the three groups. For older donors, postdonation eGFR was higher in S90 than in S80 or Sage but other comparators were identical. Postdonation eGFR slope was comparable between all groups. Our results are in favour of in-depth screening for all candidates to donation with a normal eGFR for age.

Trajectories of glomerular filtration rate and progression to end stage kidney disease after kidney transplantation.

Although the gold standard of monitoring kidney transplant function relies on glomerular filtration rate (GFR), little is known about GFR trajectories after transplantation, their determinants, and their association with outcomes. To evaluate these parameters we examined kidney transplant recipients receiving care at 15 academic centers. Patients underwent prospective monitoring of estimated GFR (eGFR) measurements, with assessment of clinical, functional, histological and immunological parameters. Additional validation took place in seven randomized controlled trials that included a total of 14,132 patients with 403,497 eGFR measurements. After a median follow-up of 6.5 years, 1,688 patients developed end-stage kidney disease. Using unsupervised latent class mixed models, we identified eight distinct eGFR trajectories. Multinomial regression models identified seven significant determinants of eGFR trajectories including donor age, eGFR, proteinuria, and several significant histological features: graft scarring, graft interstitial inflammation and tubulitis, microcirculation inflammation, and circulating anti-HLA donor specific antibodies. The eGFR trajectories were associated with progression to end stage kidney disease. These trajectories, their determinants and respective associations with end stage kidney disease were similar across cohorts, as well as in diverse clinical scenarios, therapeutic eras and in the seven randomized control trials. Thus, our results provide the basis for a trajectory-based assessment of kidney transplant patients for risk stratification and monitoring.

Temporal trends in living kidney donation in France between 2007 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: Long-term studies have demonstrated a slight increased risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) for living kidney donors (LKD). In France, living kidney donation doubled within the past 10 years. We investigated the change in characteristics of LKD between 2007 and 2017 and the adequacy of follow-up. METHODS: Data were obtained from the national registry for LKD. We compared characteristics of LKD between two study periods: 2007-11 and 2012-17, and stratified donors by age and relation to recipient. We aggregated four characteristics associated with higher ESRD risk [young age, first-degree relation to recipient, obesity, low glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for age] in a single risk indicator ranging from 0 to 4. RESULTS: We included 3483 donors. The proportion of unrelated donors >56 years of age increased significantly. The proportion of related donors <56 years of age decreased significantly. The body mass index and proportion of obese donors did not change significantly. The proportion of donors with low estimated GFR for age decreased significantly from 5% to 2.2% (P < 0.001). The proportion of donors with adequate follow-up after donation increased from 19.6% to 42.5% (P < 0.001). No donor had a risk indicator equal to 4, and the proportion of donors with a risk indicator equal to 0 increased significantly from 19.2% to 24.9% (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: An increase in living kidney donation in France does not seem to be associated with the selection of donors at higher risk of ESRD and the proportion of donors with adequate annual follow-up significantly increased.

COVID-19 severity in kidney transplant recipients is similar to nontransplant patients with similar comorbidities.

Higher rates of severe COVID-19 have been reported in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) compared to nontransplant patients. We aimed to determine if poorer outcomes were specifically related to chronic immunosuppression or underlying comorbidities. We used a 1:1 propensity score-matching method to compare survival and severe disease-free survival (defined as death and/or need for intensive care unit [ICU]) incidence in hospitalized KTRs and nontransplant control patients between February 26 and May 22, 2020. Patients were matched for risk factors of severe COVID-19: age, sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, preexisting cardiopathy, chronic lung disease, and basal renal function. We included 100 KTRs (median age [interquartile range (IQR)]) 64.7 years (55.3-73.1) in three French transplant centers. After a median follow-up of 13 days (7-30), transfer to ICU was required for 34 patients (34%) and death occurred in 26 patients (26%). Overall, 43 patients (43%) developed a severe disease during a median follow-up of 8.5 days (2-14). Propensity score matching to a large French cohort of 2017 patients hospitalized in 24 centers, revealed that survival was similar between KTRs and matched nontransplant patients with respective 30-day survival of 62.9% and 71% (p = .38) and severe disease-free 30-day survival of 50.6% and 47.5% (p = .91). These findings suggest that severity of COVID-19 in KTRs is related to their associated comorbidities and not to chronic immunosuppression.

Predictive value of mixed antigen screen beads in pre-transplant assessment of HLA immunization in solid organ transplant recipients.

Pre-transplant serum screening of anti-HLA antibodies is recommended for solid organ transplantations. Many laboratories use the less expensive bead-based screening assay as the main technique and, if positive, turn to single-antigen beads (SAB). We studied the correlations between these two immunoassays. We re-analyzed the raw data of the two assays in 3030 first organ transplant recipients, explored with the two tests. We performed a ROC curve analysis of the screening ratio to predict a positive SAB assay. The AUC were 0.72 and 0.64 for class I and class II. The optimal thresholds of screening ratios were 3.28 (class I) and 2.11 (class II). Whatever the class, the negative predictive value was low, around 40%, with 36% of discordant sera, as defined by negative screening and positive SAB. Testing class I discordant sera on acid-treated SAB showed that 54% of antibodies reacted against denatured HLA molecules. However, these screening-negative sera may contain donor-specific antibodies in 13.9% and 28.7% of cases for class I and class II, respectively, involved in antibody-mediated rejection with the same frequency as non-discordant sera. Given the low predictive value of screening, both assays should be performed at least once on the same serum before transplantation.

Prediction system for risk of allograft loss in patients receiving kidney transplants: international derivation and validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an integrative system to predict long term kidney allograft failure. DESIGN: International cohort study. SETTING: Three cohorts including kidney transplant recipients from 10 academic medical centres from Europe and the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Derivation cohort: 4000 consecutive kidney recipients prospectively recruited in four French centres between 2005 and 2014. Validation cohorts: 2129 kidney recipients from three centres in Europe and 1428 from three centres in North America, recruited between 2002 and 2014. Additional validation in three randomised controlled trials (NCT01079143, EudraCT 2007-003213-13, and NCT01873157). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Allograft failure (return to dialysis or pre-emptive retransplantation). 32 candidate prognostic factors for kidney allograft survival were assessed. RESULTS: Among the 7557 kidney transplant recipients included, 1067 (14.1%) allografts failed after a median post-transplant follow-up time of 7.12 (interquartile range 3.51-8.77) years. In the derivation cohort, eight functional, histological, and immunological prognostic factors were independently associated with allograft failure and were then combined into a risk prediction score (iBox). This score showed accurate calibration and discrimination (C index 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.83). The performance of the iBox was also confirmed in the validation cohorts from Europe (C index 0.81, 0.78 to 0.84) and the US (0.80, 0.76 to 0.84). The iBox system showed accuracy when assessed at different times of evaluation post-transplant, was validated in different clinical scenarios including type of immunosuppressive regimen used and response to rejection therapy, and outperformed previous risk prediction scores as well as a risk score based solely on functional parameters including estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria. Finally, the accuracy of the iBox risk score in predicting long term allograft loss was confirmed in the three randomised controlled trials. CONCLUSION: An integrative, accurate, and readily implementable risk prediction score for kidney allograft failure has been developed, which shows generalisability across centres worldwide and common clinical scenarios. The iBox risk prediction score may help to guide monitoring of patients and further improve the design and development of a valid and early surrogate endpoint for clinical trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03474003.

Epitope load identifies kidney transplant recipients at risk of allosensitization following minimization of immunosuppression.

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatching and minimization of immunosuppression are two major risk factors for the development of de novo donor-specific antibodies, which are associated with reduced kidney graft survival. Antibodies do not recognize whole HLA antigens but rather individual epitopes, which are short sequences of amino acids in accessible positions. However, compatibility is still assessed by the simple count of mismatched HLA antigens. We hypothesized that the number of mismatched epitopes, or ("epitope load") would identify patients at the highest risk of developing donor specific antibodies following minimization of immunosuppression. We determined epitope load in 89 clinical trial participants who converted from cyclosporine to everolimus 3 months after kidney transplantation. Twenty-nine participants (32.6%) developed de novo donor specific antibodies. Compared to the number of HLA mismatches, epitope load was more strongly associated with the development of donor specific antibodies. Participants with an epitope load greater than 27 had a 12-fold relative risk of developing donor-specific antibodies compared to those with an epitope load below that threshold. Using that threshold, epitope load would have missed only one participant who subsequently developed donor specific antibodies, compared to 8 missed cases based on a 6-antigen mismatch. DQ7 was the most frequent antigenic target of donor specific antibodies in our population, and some DQ7 epitopes appeared to be more frequently involved than others. Assessing epitope load before minimizing immunosuppression may be a more efficient tool to identify patients at the highest risk of allosensitization.

Archetype Analysis Identifies Distinct Profiles in Renal Transplant Recipients with Transplant Glomerulopathy Associated with Allograft Survival.

BACKGROUND: Transplant glomerulopathy, a common glomerular lesion observed after kidney transplant that is associated with poor prognosis, is not a specific entity but rather the end stage of overlapping disease pathways. Its heterogeneity has not been precisely characterized to date. METHODS: Our study included consecutive kidney transplant recipients from three centers in France and one in Canada who presented with a diagnosis of transplant glomerulopathy (Banff cg score ≥1 by light microscopy), on the basis of biopsies performed from January of 2004 through December of 2014. We used an unsupervised archetype analysis of comprehensive pathology findings and clinical, immunologic, and outcome data to identify distinct groups of patients. RESULTS: Among the 8207 post-transplant allograft biopsies performed during the inclusion period, we identified 552 biopsy samples (from 385 patients) with transplant glomerulopathy (incidence of 6.7%). The median time from transplant to transplant glomerulopathy diagnosis was 33.18 months. Kidney allograft survival rates at 3, 5, 7, and 10 years after diagnosis were 69.4%, 57.1%, 43.3%, and 25.5%, respectively. An unsupervised learning method integrating clinical, functional, immunologic, and histologic parameters revealed five transplant glomerulopathy archetypes characterized by distinct functional, immunologic, and histologic features and associated causes and distinct allograft survival profiles. These archetypes showed significant differences in allograft outcomes, with allograft survival rates 5 years after diagnosis ranging from 88% to 22%. Based on those results, we built an online application, which can be used in clinical practice on the basis of real patients. CONCLUSIONS: A probabilistic data-driven archetype analysis approach applied in a large, well defined multicenter cohort refines the diagnostic and prognostic features associated with cases of transplant glomerulopathy. Reducing heterogeneity among such cases can improve disease characterization, enable patient-specific risk stratification, and open new avenues for archetype-based treatment strategies and clinical trials optimization.

Identification of genetic causes for sporadic steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome in adults.

Monogenic forms of Steroid-Resistant Nephrotic Syndrome (SRNS) have been widely characterized, but genetic screening paradigms preferentially address congenital, infantile onset, and familial cases. Our aim was to characterize the distribution of disease-causing gene mutations in adults with sporadic SRNS or focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). We selected adult patients with non-syndromic, biopsy-proven FSGS or SRNS in the absence of known family history. Strict clinical criteria included lack of response to glucocorticoids and cyclosporine, and no recurrence after kidney transplantation. Mutations in SRNS genes were detected using a targeted gene panel. Sixteen of 135 tested participants (11.8%) carried pathogenic mutations in monogenic SRNS genes, and 14 others (10.4%) carried two APOL1 high-risk alleles. Autosomal recessive disease was diagnosed in 5 participants, autosomal dominant disease in 9, and X-linked disease in 2. Four participants carried a de novo heterozygous mutation. Among the 16 participants with identified mutations in monogenic SNRS genes, 7 (43.7%) had type IV collagen mutations. Mutations in monogenic SNRS genes were identified primarily in participants with proteinuria onset before 25 years of age, while the age at disease onset was variable in those with APOL1 high-risk genotype. Mean age at diagnosis was lower and renal survival was worse in participants with identified mutations in SNRS genes than in those without mutations. We found a significant rate of pathogenic mutations in adults with SRNS, with Type IV collagen mutations being the most frequent. These findings may have immediate impact on clinical practice.

From arterial stiffness to kidney graft microvasculature: Mortality and graft survival within a cohort of 220 kidney transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Aortic stiffness assessed by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV) is a predictor of mortality in several populations. However, little is known in kidney transplant recipients. Our objectives were to evaluate the ability of CF-PWV measured 3 months following transplantation to predict mortality, graft loss and its potential links to measured Glomerular Filtration Rate (mGFR) or kidney graft microvasculature parameters. METHODS: The study is based on a monocentric retrospective cohort including 220 adult kidney graft recipients evaluated three months after transplantation. CF-PWV measures, clinical, laboratory and histological data performed at 3 (M3) and 12 months (M12) following transplantation were retrospectively collected. The two primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and occurrence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) defined by initiation of dialysis. RESULTS: After a median follow up of 5.5 years [1.9; 8.8], death and graft loss occurred in 10 and 12 patients respectively. M3 CF-PWV was an independent mortality risk factor (HR = 1.29 [1.03; 1.61]; p = 0.03), despite no aortic stiffness variation during the first year of transplantation. Of notice, M3 CF-PWV was not associated with M12 mGFR or ESRD outcome. Graft microcirculation assessed by Banff vascular fibrous intimal thickening score (cv) worsened between M3 and M12 (p = 0.01), but no link was found with CF-PWV, mGFR or ESRD outcome. Surprisingly, acute rejections at M3 were associated after adjustment with mortality (p = 0.03) but not ESRD. CONCLUSION: Aortic stiffness measured 3 months after kidney transplantation is a strong predictor of mortality with no obvious influence on kidney graft microvasculature or graft loss.

Dynamic Prognostic Score to Predict Kidney Allograft Survival in Patients with Antibody-Mediated Rejection.

No tool is available for the early assessment of response to antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) therapies in kidney allograft recipients. This study was designed to define a dynamic composite prognostic ABMR score to predict kidney allograft survival, integrating the disease characteristics at diagnosis and the response to treatment. Among 1978 kidney recipients who underwent transplant between 2008 and 2014, we included 278 patients diagnosed with active ABMR and receiving standard treatment, including plasma exchange, intravenous Ig, and rituximab. Patients were prospectively assessed at diagnosis and after treatment for clinical data, histologic characteristics (allograft biopsy specimen), and donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies (DSA). The dynamic ABMR prediction model included GFR (P<0.001) and presence of interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (P=0.003) at diagnosis and changes in GFR (P<0.001), peritubular capillaritis Banff score (P=0.002), and DSA mean fluorescence intensity (P<0.001) after treatment. Overall, this model showed good calibration and discrimination (C-statistic=0.84). The ABMR prognostic score derived from the prediction model identified three risk strata with 6-year kidney allograft survival rates of 6.0% (high-risk group, n=40), 44.9% (intermediate-risk group, n=36), and 84.4% (low-risk group, n=202), and it provided greater net clinical benefit to patients than did considering them all to have the same level of risk of allograft loss. The performance of the ABMR prognostic score was validated in an independent cohort of 202 kidney recipients with ABMR (C-statistic=0.79). The ABMR prognostic score could be used to inform therapeutic decisions in clinical practice and for the design of clinical trials.

Reversal of Arterial Stiffness and Maladaptative Arterial Remodeling After Kidney Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is characterized by stiffening, thinning, dilatation, and increased circumferential wall stress of large arteries, associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Kidney transplantation (KT) reverses many pathological features of chronic kidney disease and improves life expectancy; however, longitudinal studies exploring the impact of KT on recipient large arteries are scarce. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study was designed to appraise arterial changes following KT. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, carotid remodeling (circumferential wall stress and carotid internal diameter), and stiffness were measured in 161 consecutive recipients receiving either a living (n=49) or a deceased (n=112) donor allograft, at 3 and 12 months after transplantation. Mean pulse wave velocity decreased from 10.8 m/s (95% confidence interval, 10.5-11.2 m/s) (at month 3) to 10.1 m/s (95% confidence interval, 9.8-10.5 m/s) (at month 12) (P<0.001). After multivariate adjustment, pulse wave velocity reduction from month 3 to month 12 was significantly larger in the living donor allograft KT (P<0.001). Circumferential wall stress decreased, 70 kPa (95% confidence interval, 68-72 kPa) to 64 kPa (95% confidence interval, 62-67 kPa), as well as carotid internal diameter and carotid stiffness (P<0.001 for all). Reductions in circumferential wall stress, diameter, and stiffness were significantly larger in the living donor allograft KT (P<0.001). When deceased donor allograft patients were classified into standard and expanded criteria donors, changes in both pulse wave velocity and circumferential wall stress were blunted in expanded criteria donors. Changes were independent of graft function and blood pressure changes. CONCLUSIONS: Large-artery stiffness and maladaptive carotid artery remodeling of chronic kidney disease is partially reversed within 12 months of KT and appears unrelated to renal function. Improvements were independently associated with live organ donation. Our data suggest that expanded criteria donors may hamper vascular recovery.

Lung cancer in renal transplant recipients: A case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Solid organ transplant patients are at heightened risk of several cancers compared to the general population. Secondary to a higher number of procedures and better survival after transplantation, cancer is a rising health concern in this situation. Limited data exist for lung cancer (LC) after renal transplantation. We report here the most important series of renal transplant recipients with lung cancer. METHODS: Retrospective study of all cases of LC diagnosed in three French Renal Transplant Units from 2003 to 2012. A control group consisted of non-transplant patients with LC matched with the cases for age (<30; 30-50; 50-65; >65 years), gender and diagnosis date. We recruited two controls for each case. RESULTS: Thirty patients (median age 60 years; range 29-85; male/female ratio 80/20%) with LC were analysed. LC incidence was 1.89/1000 person-years over the period 2008-2012. All patients were former or active smokers (median 30 pack-years). Transplanted patients had significantly more comorbidities, mainly cardiovascular disease. The median interval of time from kidney transplantation (KT) to diagnosis of LC was 7 years (range 0.5-47 years). LC was incidentally diagnosed in 40%. Most patients (70%) had advanced LC (stage III or IV) disease. Stage of LC at diagnosis was similar in cases and controls. Surgery and chemotherapy were proposed to the same proportion of patients. In cases, mortality was cancer related in 87% and median survival time after diagnosis was 24 months. Survival was not significantly different between the 2 groups. CONCLUSION: Despite frequent medical and radiological examinations, diagnosis of LC is usually made at an advanced stage and the overall prognosis remains poor.