Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age. METHODS: Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models. RESULTS: Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.

Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024.

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on total, sex- and age-specific all-cause mortality in 20 countries worldwide during 2020: results from the C-MOR project.

BACKGROUND: To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, this study investigates overall, sex- and age-specific excess all-cause mortality in 20 countries, during 2020. METHODS: Total, sex- and age-specific weekly all-cause mortality for 2015-2020 was collected from national vital statistics databases. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 observed mortality against expected mortality, estimated from historical data (2015-2019) accounting for seasonality, long- and short-term trends. Crude and age-standardized rates were analysed for total and sex-specific mortality. RESULTS: Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Israel, Italy, Northern Ireland, Peru, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the USA displayed substantial excess age-standardized mortality of varying duration during 2020, while Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Mauritius, Norway, and Ukraine did not. In sex-specific analyses, excess mortality was higher in males than females, except for Slovenia (higher in females) and Cyprus (similar in both sexes). Lastly, for most countries substantial excess mortality was only detectable (Austria, Cyprus, Israel, and Slovenia) or was higher (Brazil, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Italy, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Peru and the USA) in the oldest age group investigated. Peru demonstrated substantial excess mortality even in the <45 age group. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that excess all-cause mortality during 2020 is context dependent, with specific countries, sex- and age-groups being most affected. As the pandemic continues, tracking excess mortality is important to accurately estimate the true toll of COVID-19, while at the same time investigating the effects of changing contexts, different variants, testing, quarantine, and vaccination strategies.

Evidence of overestimating prostate cancer mortality in Estonia: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PC) mortality statistics in Estonia has shown inconsistencies with incidence and survival trends. The aim of this population-based study was to assess the accuracy of reporting PC as the underlying cause of death and estimate the effect of misattribution in assigning cause of death on PC mortality rates. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Estonian Causes of Death Registry (CoDR) and Cancer Registry provided data on all men in Estonia who died in 2017 and had a mention of PC on any field of the death certificate or had a lifetime diagnosis of PC. A blinded review of medical records was conducted by an expert panel to ascertain whether the underlying cause was PC or other death. We estimated the agreement between the underlying causes of death registered at the CoDR and those ascertained by medical review and calculated corrected mortality rates. RESULTS: The study population included 655 deaths. Among 277 PC deaths registered at CoDR, 164 (59%) were verified by medical review. Among 378 other deaths registered at CoDR, 17 (5%) were ascertained as PC deaths by medical review. In total, the number of PC deaths decreased from 277 to 181 and the corrected age standardized (world) mortality rate decreased from 20 to 13 per 100 000 (1.5-fold overestimation, 95% confidence interval 1.2-1.9). CONCLUSIONS: PC mortality statistics in Estonia should be interpreted with caution and possible overestimation considered when making policy decisions. Quality assurance mechanisms should be reinforced in the whole death certification process.

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, October to December 2020.

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.

Excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe - preliminary pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network, March to April 2020.

A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45-64 (8%) and 15-44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0-14 year olds.

Preventable premature deaths (PYLL) in Northern Dimension partnership countries 2003-13.

BACKGROUND: Objective was to measure preventable premature loss of life in countries from same geographical area but with considerable differences in social and economic development. By comparing inter-country differences and similarities in premature mortality, acceleration of health-in-all-policies is enhanced. METHODS: Preventable premature deaths were described by Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL). Data consisted of death registers for 2003, 2009 and 2013. PYLL-rates were age-standardized by using standard OECD population from 1980 and expressed as sum of lost life years per 100 000 citizens. RESULTS: In Northern Dimension area, PYLL-rates had declined from 2003 to 2013. In 2013, worst PYLL-rate was in Belarus 9851 and best in Sweden 2511. PYLL-rates among men were twice as high as among women. Most premature losses (1023) were due to external causes. Malignant neoplasms came second (921) and vascular diseases third (816). Alcohol was also an important cause (270) and country differences were over 10-fold. CONCLUSIONS: In ND-area, the overall development of public health has been good during 2003-13. Nevertheless, for all countries foci for public health improvement and learning from each other could be identified. Examining the health of populations in countries from relatively similar geographical area with different social history and cultures can provide them with evidence-based tools for health-in-all-policies to advocate health promotion and disease prevention. Gender differences due to preventable premature deaths are striking. The higher the national PYLL-rate, the bigger the PYLL-rate difference between men and women and the loss of human capital.

Excess all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in Europe, December 2016 to February 2017.

Since December 2016, excess all-cause mortality was observed in many European countries, especially among people aged ≥ 65 years. We estimated all-cause and influenza-attributable mortality in 19 European countries/regions. Excess mortality was primarily explained by circulation of influenza virus A(H3N2). Cold weather snaps contributed in some countries. The pattern was similar to the last major influenza A(H3N2) season in 2014/15 in Europe, although starting earlier in line with the early influenza season start.

Sharp decrease in observed cerebrovascular mortality may be due to certification and coding.

AIMS AND METHODS: Being easily available and having good coverage and comparability, official mortality statistics are used very widely. This in turn is because the definitions of mortality and methods of pertinent data collection are coordinated worldwide by the World Health Organization. In Estonia, registered cerebrovascular mortality has dropped 50% since 2000. A less dramatic decrease has been observed in nearly all EU Member States. To find out if this development can be explained by changing certification and coding practices, we counted all mentions of cerebrovascular diseases in the Estonian Causes of Death Registry database between 2004 and 2013 and analyzed the selection of the underlying cause of death. RESULTS: We found that the sharp decrease in registered cerebrovascular mortality was by a half due to an increased selection of hypertension as the underlying cause of death. In cases where a cerebrovascular disease was mentioned and selected the underlying cause of death, the mean number of diagnoses per record was 2.45, in cases where a cerebrovascular disease was mentioned, but hypertension selected the underlying cause of death, the mean number of diagnoses was 3.15. CONCLUSIONS THE CHOICE OF THE UNDERLYING CAUSE OF DEATH REGISTERED IN OFFICIAL STATISTICS DEPENDS ON THE LEVEL OF DETAILS PROVIDED IN A DEATH CERTIFICATE, AS WELL AS UPDATES TO CODING RULES AND USE OF MODERN QUALITY ASSURANCE INSTRUMENTS IN DATA PRODUCTION.

Fentanyls: Are we missing the signs? Highly potent and on the rise in Europe.

Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid analgesic historically used as a pain reliever and an anaesthetic. Recent concerns have arisen around the illicit use of fentanyl and its analogues in a number of European countries, linked to their high potency and associated risk of fatal overdose. Evidence has been emerging from Estonia for over a decade of entrenched patterns of fentanyl use, including injection of the drug and hundreds of overdose deaths. More recently, reports indicate that both fentanyl and 3-methylfentanyl (TMF) have been marketed as a replacement for heroin in European countries (e.g. Bulgaria, Slovakia) affected by heroin shortages. In addition, Germany, Finland and the United Kingdom, reported new outbreaks of fentanyl-related deaths. This combination of increasing mortality data alongside law enforcement intelligence suggesting both diversion and illicit production of fentanyls, prompted wider investigation using a targeted multi-source data collection exercise and analysis. This identified that in the European context, fentanyls are 'low use but high risk/harm' substances. Evidence shows that Estonia stands out as having an endemic problem, while the use of fentanyls in other European countries appears to be geographically localised. Developments in illicit supply of fentanyls reflect the complexity of Europe's contemporary drug market: manifesting illicit production and use, the diversion and misuse of medicines, and the online sale of non-controlled new psychoactive substances. Likewise effective and integrated responses will need to address fentanyl production, diversion as well as ensuring the availability of harm reduction measures to users.