Predicting the risk of early intensive care unit admission for patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis using supervised machine learning.

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a complex and life-threatening disease. Early recognition of factors predicting morbidity and mortality is crucial. We aimed to develop and validate a pragmatic model to predict the individualized risk of early intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with AP. Methods: The 2019 Nationwide Readmission Database was used to identify patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AP without ICU admission. A matched comparison cohort of AP patients with ICU admission within 7 days of hospitalization was identified from the National Inpatient Sample after 1:N propensity score matching. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select predictors and develop an ICU acute pancreatitis risk (IAPR) score validated by 10-fold cross-validation. Results: A total of 1513 patients hospitalized for AP were included. The median age was 50.0 years (interquartile range: 39.0-63.0). The three predictors that were selected included hypoxia (area under the curve [AUC] 0.78), acute kidney injury (AUC 0.72), and cardiac arrhythmia (AUC 0.61). These variables were used to develop a nomogram that displayed excellent discrimination (AUC 0.874) (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% confidence interval 0.824-0.876). There was no evidence of miscalibration (test statistic = 2.88; P = 0.09). For high-risk patients (total score >6 points), the sensitivity was 68.94% and the specificity was 92.66%. Conclusions: This supervised machine learning-based model can help recognize high-risk AP hospitalizations. Clinicians may use the IAPR score to identify patients with AP at high risk of ICU admission within the first week of hospitalization.

Association between alcohol-associated cirrhosis and inpatient complications among COVID-19 patients: A propensity-matched analysis from the United States.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC) contributes to significant liver-related mortality in the United States. It is known to cause immune dysfunction and coagulation abnormalities. Patients with comorbid conditions like AC are at risk of worse clinical outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The specific association between AC and COVID-19 mortality remains inconclusive, given the lack of robust clinical evidence from prior studies. AIM: To study the predictors of mortality and the outcomes of AC in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database 2020. Patients were identified with primary COVID-19 hospitalizations based on an underlying diagnosis of AC. A matched comparison cohort of COVID-19 patients without AC was identified after 1:N propensity score matching based on baseline sociodemographic characteristics and Elixhauser comorbidities. Primary outcomes included median length of stay, median inpatient charges, and in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included a prevalence of systemic complications. RESULTS: A total of 1325 COVID-19 patients with AC were matched to 1135 patients without AC. There was no difference in median length of stay and hospital charges in COVID-19 patients with AC compared to non-AC (P > 0.05). There was an increased prevalence of septic shock (5.7% vs 4.1%), ventricular fibrillation/ventricular flutter (0.4% vs 0%), atrial fibrillation (13.2% vs 8.8%), atrial flutter (8.7% vs 4.4%), first-degree atrioventricular nodal block (0.8% vs 0%), upper extremity venous thromboembolism (1.5% vs 0%), and variceal bleeding (3.8% vs 0%) in the AC cohort compared to the non-AC cohort (P < 0.05). There was no difference in inpatient mortality in COVID-19 patients with non-AC compared to AC, with an odds ratio of 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-1.22, P = 0.85). Predictors of mortality included advanced age, cardiac arrhythmias, coagulopathy, protein-calorie malnutrition, fluid and electrolyte disorders, septic shock, and upper extremity venous thromboembolism. CONCLUSION: AC does not increase mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. There is an increased association between inpatient complications among COVID-19 patients with AC compared to non-AC.

A global systematic review and meta-analysis on the emerging evidence on risk factors, clinical characteristics, and prognosis of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in adults (MIS-A).

Background: The multisystem inflammatory syndrome in adults (MIS-A) has emerged, similar to those in children associated with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) [multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C)]. This review aimed to analyze the risk factors, clinical course, and prognosis of MIS-A. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted using several databases for cases reporting MIS-A from 1 December 2019 till 9 September 2021. The case definitions used to identify potential cases were those recommended by the World Health Organization, Center for Disease Control, and individual country/physician classification. The meta-analysis was performed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) 2.2.027 and Review Manager (RevMan) 5.4.1, employing 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Seventy studies were assessed for full-text eligibility, out of which 37 were included. The mean age of the study population was 32.52±10.29 years. The most common symptoms were fever (89.8%, 95% CI: 77.7-95.7%) and diarrhea (49%, 95% CI: 35.4-62.7%). Ventricular tachycardia (57.1%, 95% CI: 43.1-70.1%) was the most common electro-cardiac abnormality. The most common inflammatory marker was elevated C-reactive protein (89.8%, 95% CI: 77.7-95.7%). Abnormal echocardiogram was the most common imaging test result (commonly, ventricular dysfunction and arrhythmias), while steroids were the most administered treatment. Severe cases had a higher need for vasopressor and inotropic support and antibiotic therapy compared to the non-severe cases. One death was reported due to cardiovascular failure. Conclusion: Our collated findings will help clinicians identify the typical presenting symptoms and optimal management of MIS-A. Further research is required to understand the long-term prognosis and the correlation between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and MIS-A to understand its pathogenesis and clinical spectrum.

Trends in hospital admissions and mortality among inflammatory bowel disease patients with substance use disorder: a 10-year United States nationwide analysis.

Background: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and substance use disorder (SUD) may have worse clinical outcomes. However, data specific to the hospital admission and mortality rates among IBD patients with SUD are scarce. Our objective was to assess trends in admission, healthcare expenses, and mortality for IBD patients with SUD. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study using the National Inpatient Sample database to analyze SUD (alcohol, opioids, cocaine, and cannabis) among IBD hospitalizations from 2009 to 2019. Results: A total of 132,894 hospitalizations for IBD had a secondary diagnosis of SUD. Of these patients, 75,172 (57%) were men and 57,696 (43%) were women. The IBD-SUD cohort had a longer length of stay than the non-SUD cohort (P < 0.001). The mean inpatient charges for IBD hospitalizations with SUD increased from $48,699 ± $1374 in 2009 to $62,672 ± $1528 in 2019 (P < 0.001). We found a 159.5% increase in IBD hospitalizations with SUD. The hospitalization rate increased from 3492 per 100,000 IBD hospitalizations in 2009 to 9063 per 100,000 in 2019 (P < 0.001). In-hospital mortality for IBD hospitalizations with SUD increased by 129.6% (from 250 deaths per 100,000 IBD hospitalizations in 2009 to 574 deaths per 100,000 IBD hospitalizations in 2019) (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Over the last decade, there has been a rise in IBD hospitalizations with SUD. This has resulted in a longer length of stay, higher inpatient charges, and higher mortality rates. Identifying IBD patients potentially at risk for SUD by screening for anxiety, depression, pain, or other factors has become crucial.

The relationship between knowledge, attitude, and practice of plasma donation with age and gender as moderators: a cross-sectional survey.

Convalescent plasma therapy has gained worldwide notoriety since its inception as a form of soul treatment for terminally ill patients. This study investigates the link between knowledge, attitude, and practice of plasma donation while simultaneously probing the moderative role of age and gender in this context. Method: A cross-sectional study was undertaken in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on COVID-19-recovered patients (coronavirus disease 2019). In all, 383 persons were chosen using simple random sampling. A prestructured questionnaire was first validated and then used as a tool for data collection. jMetrik version 4.1.1 and SPSS version 26 were used to enter and analyze the data. Reliability analysis, hierarchal regression, and logistic regression analysis were applied. Results: A total of 85.1% and 58.2% of 383 individuals had a favorable attitude and sufficient knowledge toward plasma donation, respectively. Plasma donation was observed in 109 (28.5%) of the individuals. Plasma donation practice was shown to be strongly related to plasma donation attitude [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=4.48; P<0.05] and knowledge (AOR=3.78; P<0.001). Females who had more plasma donation knowledge and attitude tend to donate more compared to males. However, no interactional effect of gender×knowledge and attitude, and age×knowledge and attitude was found with plasma donation practice. Conclusion: Plasma donation was uncommon, even though the majority of individuals had a good mindset and were well-informed. Fear of getting a health problem was linked to the decreased practice.

Endoscopic management of severe colo-colonic anastomotic stricture.

Video 1A therapeutic approach: endoscopic management of severe colo-colonic anastomotic stricture.

Neonatal Diabetes Mellitus - Is Trisomy 21 Associated With Refractory Hyperglycaemia?

Background: Neonatal diabetes mellitus is a rare disorder characterized by refractory hyperglycaemia which is further divided into two types, transient (TNDM) and permanent neonatal diabetes (PNDM), which is associated with genetic aberrations at the human chromosome 6q24 accompanied with pancreatic structural abnormalities or -cell dysfunction requiring insulin treatment. This case report analyzes a rare correlation between a case of permanent neonatal diabetes mellitus with Trisomy 21. Method: An infant presented with intrauterine growth retardation and very low birth weight showing signs of persistent hyperglycaemia where genetic analysis suggested presence of permanent neonatal diabetes mellitus accompanied with Trisomy 21. Chest X-ray examination alongside an echocardiogram revealed significant pericardial tamponade. By the 6th week of life, pericardial effusion spontaneously resolved supported by normal follow-up echocardiograms without any treatment plan. The patient became euglycemic by 3rd week of life and discharged. Conclusion: Neonates with diabetes mellitus usually present with clinical features such as low-birth weight, ketoacidosis, consistent insulin-requiring hyperglycaemia and preterm. This case report shows a correlation between neonatal diabetes and genetic syndromes. Treatment plans can be improved by conducting genetic studies between these two variables and understanding the long-term outcomes.

Budding Medical Professionals And Covid-19: The Impact Of Covid-19 On Mental Health And Medical Students.

BACKGROUND: Due to the Novel Coronavirus Disease, medical education has transformed from a physical to an online-medium. The importance of physical education in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), where online education can be challenging there is a need to explore the factors that affect online education. This study assesses the perspective and mental health of students whose medical education has been impacted by the pandemic. Methods: An online-questionnaire was distributed through social media platforms from October-to-December 2020 through Google-Forms among medical students across Pakistan. Two grading-scales were used to score anxiety and depression. Descriptive statistics and a logistic regression analysis were used to identify factors associated with anxiety and depression among medical students. p<0.05 was considered as significant. Data was analyzed using STATA v.15. RESULTS: Total of 433 medical students participated in the study where 68.1% had some form of depression and 10.9% had anxiety. Around 65%-participants disagreed with the preference for online-classes. Seventy percent agreed on "Has the thought of the pandemic made you worry about your academic future" being associated with COVID-19 related-depression (OR: 2.03, 95%CI: 1.32-3.11). Multivariate analysis showed agreeing to "COVID affected my educational performance" was associated with anxiety (OR:1.45, 95%CI: 1.03-2.06) and depression (OR: 1.27, 95%CI: 1.03-1.56). CONCLUSIONS: Being part of the Low- and-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC), online-education itself becomes a challenge. Given the continued shutdown of universities across the country and the growing anxiety and depression amongst the students, adequate measures should be taken to help in coping up with the current challenge.

Residual symptoms and the quality of life in individuals recovered from COVID-19 infection: A survey from Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: There remains scarcity of literature regarding the patient's health status post-COVID-19 infection. This study analyzes the prevalence of residual symptoms and quality of life (QoL) after COVID-19. METHODS: An anonymous online survey was administrated in Pakistan from November 2020 to April 2021 in COVID-19 survivors. The questionnaire used the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) to assess mental and physical QoL. Multivariate linear regression was used to explore factors associated with mental and physical QoL scores. RESULTS: A total of 331 COVID-19 survivors participated in our survey. Around 42.0% of the cohort reported within 1-3 months of diagnosis of COVID-19. The common residual symptoms were body aches (39.9%), low mood (32.6%), and cough (30.2%). Better physical QoL was associated with being male (adjusted beta: 3.328) and having no residual symptoms (6.955). However, suffering from nausea/vomiting during initial COVID-19 infection (-4.026), being admitted to the ICU during COVID-19 infection (-9.164), and suffering from residual body aches (-5.209) and low mood (-2.959) was associated with poorer QoL. Better mental QoL was associated with being asymptomatic during initial COVID-19 infection (6.149) and post-COVID (6.685), while experiencing low mood post-COVID was associated with poorer mental QoL (-8.253 [-10.914, -5.592]). CONCLUSION: Despite presumed "recovery" from COVID-19, patients still face a wide range of residual symptoms months after initial infection, which contributes towards poorer QoL. Healthcare professionals must remain alert to the long-lasting effects of COVID-19 infection and aim to address them appropriately to improve patients' QoL.

Health and Immune Boosting Techniques of General Adult Pakistani Population: A KAP Study.

OBJECTIVE: To discover Pakistani adult population's perception about their general health, immune status and knowledge regarding immunity, and to highlight their efforts to improve it. METHODS: The knowledge-attitude-practice study was conducted from January to May 2021, after approval ethics review committee of the Islamic International Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan, and comprised individuals of either gender from the community aged 18 years or more and not suffering from any physical disability or mental illness. Data was collected using a pre-tested, self-administered questionnaire that was disseminated through online platforms. The collected data was analysed using SPSS 25. RESULTS: All the 455(100%) individuals approached responded to the questionnaire. The mean age of the subjects was 22.6±7.579 years. There were 256(56.3%) female respondents, 283(62.2%) were aged 20-21 years, and 359(78.9%) hailed from the Sindh province. Most participants perceived their general health as 'good' 197(43.3%). The immune system function was reported 'good' by 200(44%), and the perception of general knowledge of immunity was reported 'good' by 189(41.5%) subjects. Inverse relationships were identified between stress levels and self-perceived health, and between receiving effective homeopathic treatment and 'very good' self-perceived immune status (p<0.05). People willing to take non-obligatory vaccines had a positive opinion about their self-perceived knowledge on immunity that produced a direct relationship (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide a framework of practices that should be promoted to improve health status of adult population in Pakistan.

Demographic Factors, Conspiracy Theories, and Beliefs Associated With COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Among Pakistani Population: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Introduction The coverage of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immunization uptake has been impacted by the acceptance of regular vaccine uptake and, like many other vaccination attempts in the past, it also faces issues of vaccine hesitancy. Through this study, we hoped to assess the conspiracy theories and beliefs attached to the COVID-19 vaccination efforts in Pakistan Methods This study was conducted among the general population of Pakistan, aged 16 and above, from April 29 to May 29, 2021. The data was collected through English and Urdu questionnaires by a method of convenient sampling. A total of 600 participants were asked to fill in 34 questions pertaining to vaccine hesitancy and conspiracies. We used the Modified Kuppuswamy Socioeconomic Scale, Kuppuswamy Socioeconomic Scale, Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire (CMQ), and Vaccine Conspiracy Belief Scale (VCBS) as our questions. Results A total of 591 participants responded to our questionnaire. The majority were females (56.7%), had an undergraduate degree (41.5%), and belonged to the upper middle socioeconomic class (40%). Factors like occupation (p=0.001), education (p=0.001), socioeconomic status (p<0.001), any family member who contracted coronavirus (p=0.016), source of knowledge (p=0.002), and total monthly income (p<0.001) were found to be statistically significant. Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that conspiracy theories and misinformation about vaccinations are prevalent in our region. They are influenced by propaganda and negative cultural values among the population To combat and restrict the spread of this problem, our study can provide useful data to develop more appropriate policy measures.

The mystery of COVID-19 reinfections: A global systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, reports on disparities in vaccine roll out alongside COVID-19 reinfection have been emerging. We conducted a systematic review to assess the determinants and disease spectrum of COVID-19 reinfection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A comprehensive search covering relevant databases was conducted for observational studies reporting Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) confirmed infection and reinfection cases. A quality assessment tool developed by the National Institute of Health (NIH) for the assessment of case series was utilized. Meta-analyses were performed using RevMan 5.3 for pooled proportions of findings in first infection and reinfection with a 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Eighty-one studies reporting 577 cases were included from 22 countries. The mean age of patients was 46.2 ± 18.9 years and 179 (31.0%) cases of comorbidities were reported. The average time duration between first infection and reinfection was 63.6 ± 48.9 days. During first infection and reinfection, fever was the most common symptom (41.4% and 36.4%, respectively) whilst anti-viral therapy was the most common treatment regimen administered (44.5% and 43.0%, respectively). Comparable odds of symptomatic presentation and management were reported for the two infections. However, a higher Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission rate was observed in reinfection compared to first infection (10 vs 3). Ten deaths were reported with respiratory failure being the most common cause of death (7/10 deaths). CONCLUSION: Our findings support immunization practices given increased ICU admissions and mortality in reinfections. Our cohort serves as a guide for clinicians and authorities in devising an optimal strategy for controlling the pandemic. (249 words).

Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccine in Pakistan: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study.

Introduction The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine is available across various countries worldwide, with public-private partnerships ensuring all individuals are vaccinated through a phased approach. Irrespective of the geographical spread, several myths pertaining to the COVID-19 vaccine have stemmed, ultimately limiting the national administration of vaccines and rollouts. This study assessed the acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine among the general public in Pakistan. Methods A pre-validated questionnaire was administered from January 2021 to February 2021 to assess the public attitude and acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine. Logistic regression analyses were run to identify factors associated with the acceptance among the population. Results A total of 936 responses were elicited, where 15% perceived their risk of being infected at 20-30% with an overall 70% agreeing to be vaccinated if recommended. Multivariate analysis identified higher acceptance in the male gender, healthcare workers, and students. Of all, 66% respondents chose healthcare workers and public officials, whereas 15.6% chose scientific literature, and 12.9% chose social media as the most reliable source of COVID-19 information. Conclusion Given the relatively greater trust in healthcare providers for information regarding COVID-19, healthcare workers ought to be on the frontline for vaccine campaigns and public outreach efforts, with governmental efforts in addition to the promotion of scientific materials for population-level understanding.

Knowledge, attitude and perception of Pakistanis towards COVID-19; a large cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: The Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) has created havoc globally as countries worldwide struggle to combat this pandemic. Since prevention and social isolation are known to be the only ways to prevent the spread of COVID-19, this has created challenges among the lower-middle income countries (LMIC) including Pakistan, as it battles between an under-resourced healthcare, an economic shutdown, and widespread myths and misconceptions. Therefore, a study was conducted to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and perceptions regarding COVID-19 as public understanding is vital to help facilitate the control of this outbreak. METHODS: A pre-validated online questionnaire was distributed among the general population of Pakistan from 1st to 12th June 2020. Descriptive statistics were analyzed using SPSS v25. Adequate knowledge was assigned as a score of > 4 (range: 0-8) and good perception as a score of > 3 (range: 0-5). Chi-square test was used to determine the significance of difference in knowledge and perception of COVID-19 with socio-demographic characteristics. Logistic regression analysis was run to identify factors associated with adequate knowledge and perception. P < 0.05 was considered as significant. RESULTS: A total of 1200 respondents participated in this study with a wide range of age groups and education. Majority of the respondents had adequate knowledge (93.3%) with a mean score of 6.59 ± 1.35, and good perception (85.6%) with a mean score of 4.29 ± 0.82. Significant differences in knowledge and perception were observed among genders, age groups, education and between students and employees in the healthcare and non-healthcare department. A multivariate analysis revealed a higher educational status and female gender to be significant predictors of adequate knowledge and perception. CONCLUSIONS: Albeit the surge of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, the participants demonstrated an overall adequate knowledge and good perception towards COVID-19. There is a need to follow the preventive protocols and dissemination of correct information through conducting educational interventions that target safe health practices and provide appropriate information on this infection.

Gauging the Risk Factors for Asymptomatic Bacteriuria in Type-2 Diabetic Women: A Case-Control Study.

Background There is conflicting literature pertaining to the risk factors of asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASBU) in diabetic women. ASBU is a well-established risk factor for frequent urinary tract infections (UTIs), and the risk factors that predispose diabetic women to ASBU should, therefore, be evaluated.  Objectives This study aims to discern these aforesaid risk factors in type-2 diabetic women, define a population subset at particularly high risk for ASBU, and gauge the efficacy inherent in adhering to an antibiotic regimen in combatting ASBU.  Methods An analytical, case-control study was conducted at the Diabetic Clinic of the Holy Family Hospital (HFH), Rawalpindi, Pakistan. The participants included were type-2 diabetic women reporting to the clinic for routine follow-up. Six hundred and sixty-seven urine samples from these type-2 diabetic women were evaluated. Positive cases were those in which patients were diagnosed with ASBU according to the guidelines, while those with no ASBU constituted the control group. Common risk factors for UTI were excluded in both groups. Age, socioeconomic status, hygiene practices, and contraceptive use were matched between cases and controls.  Results Nineteen percent of type-2 diabetic women presented with ASBU in our study. The significant risk factors for ASBU were a higher HbA1c level (OR 1.97), more years since the initial diagnosis of diabetes (OR 1.49), a prior UTI history (OR 2.49), excessive antibiotic use (OR 2.72), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor use (OR 1.75), and proteinuria (OR 1.88) in the multivariate model. Body mass index (BMI), age of the patients, pyuria, and voiding dysfunction manifested no association with ASBU. Antibiotic use was significantly associated with the type of bacterial species precipitating the ASBU.  Conclusion The clinicians must keep in mind the association between the various patient parameters and ASBU, especially in prescribing antibiotics to diabetic women. More studies are needed to further elaborate on these risk factors and revise the patient management in at-risk cases for ASBU and UTIs.

Who is at a Higher Risk? A brief review of Recent Evidence on comorbidities in children infected with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has affected both adults and children with variable presentations and disease severity. Children can present with mild symptoms of fever, cough and shortness of breath, and rapidly progress to severe pneumonia, requiring mechanical ventilation. This population includes children who are younger than one year and older adolescents who have an underlying comorbidity-specifically immunosuppression or prior cardio-respiratory infections. In this review, we discuss the determinants of severe disease among the paediatric patients- primarily asthma, immune-status, obesity and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). Asthma and underlying lung pathologies can be a strong predictor (~20% prevalence) for development of severe COVID-19 infection, irrespective of age. However, as compared to asthma, a higher mortality rate was reported in immune-compromised patients. With a weakened immune system, immunosuppressed individuals were 1.55 times and immunocompromised patients 3.29 times more vulnerable to developing severer COVID-19 disease. Similarly, evidence suggests that a BMI of greater than 35 kg/m2 renders individuals more susceptible to developing COVID-19-related complications. This observation is based on the negative impacts obesity has on pulmonary functions and in downplaying the immune system. Furthermore, a possible association of COVID-19 and MIS-C has been reported by multiple studies across the globe but it needs further studies to strengthen its stance due to the scarcity of data when compared with the other determinants discussed in this article. Authors recommend researchers directing attention on synthesizing the evolving evidence to fill the knowledge void in the paediatric population, which will better enable paediatricians to make informed decisions.