A distribution model for Glossina brevipalpis and Glossina austeni in Southern Mozambique, Eswatini and South Africa for enhanced area-wide integrated pest management approaches.

BACKGROUND: Glossina austeni and Glossina brevipalpis (Diptera: Glossinidae) are the sole cyclical vectors of African trypanosomes in South Africa, Eswatini and southern Mozambique. These populations represent the southernmost distribution of tsetse flies on the African continent. Accurate knowledge of infested areas is a prerequisite to develop and implement efficient and cost-effective control strategies, and distribution models may reduce large-scale, extensive entomological surveys that are time consuming and expensive. The objective was to develop a MaxEnt species distribution model and habitat suitability maps for the southern tsetse belt of South Africa, Eswatini and southern Mozambique. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The present study used existing entomological survey data of G. austeni and G. brevipalpis to develop a MaxEnt species distribution model and habitat suitability maps. Distribution models and a checkerboard analysis indicated an overlapping presence of the two species and the most suitable habitat for both species were protected areas and the coastal strip in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa and Maputo Province, Mozambique. The predicted presence extents, to a small degree, into communal farming areas adjacent to the protected areas and coastline, especially in the Matutuíne District of Mozambique. The quality of the MaxEnt model was assessed using an independent data set and indicated good performance with high predictive power (AUC > 0.80 for both species). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The models indicated that cattle density, land surface temperature and protected areas, in relation with vegetation are the main factors contributing to the distribution of the two tsetse species in the area. Changes in the climate, agricultural practices and land-use have had a significant and rapid impact on tsetse abundance in the area. The model predicted low habitat suitability in the Gaza and Inhambane Provinces of Mozambique, i.e., the area north of the Matutuíne District. This might indicate that the southern tsetse population is isolated from the main tsetse belt in the north of Mozambique. The updated distribution models will be useful for planning tsetse and trypanosomosis interventions in the area.

Impact of an integrated control campaign on tsetse populations in Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Tsetse flies are the sole vectors of human and animal trypanosomosis. In Burkina Faso, a project aiming to create zones free of tsetse flies and trypanosomosis was executed from June 2006 to December 2013. After the determination of tsetse distribution in the intervention area from December 2007 to November 2008, the control campaign was launched in November 2009 and ended in December 2013. The goal was to eliminate tsetse flies from 40,000 km2 of area, through an integrated control campaign including insecticide targets, traps and cattle, sequential aerial treatment (SAT) and the mass treatment of livestock using trypanocides. The campaign involved assistance of the beneficiary communities at all the steps of the control strategy with insecticide impregnated targets. METHODS: This study was carried out to assess the impact of the control project on tsetse apparent density per trap per day (ADT). To evaluate the effectiveness of tsetse control, 201 sites were selected based on the baseline survey results carried out from December 2007 to November 2008. These sites were monitored bi-monthly from January 2010 to November 2012. At the end-of-study in 2013 a generalized entomological survey was carried out in 401 infested sites found during the longitudinal survey done before the control. Barrier and tsetse persistence areas were treated by ground spraying and evaluated. Controls were also done before and after aerial spraying. RESULTS: In the insecticide-impregnated target area, the control showed that ADT of tsetse flies declined from 10.73 (SD 13.27) to 0.43 (SD 2.51) fly/trap/day from the third month of campaign onwards (P < 0.0001) and remained low thereafter. At the end of the campaign in 2013, an 83% reduction of ADT was observed for Glossina palpalis gambiensis and a 92% reduction for G. tachinoides. Tsetse flies were captured only in 29% of the sites found infested in 2008. CONCLUSIONS: Tsetse flies could be suppressed efficiently but their elimination from the targeted area may require the use integrated methods including the Sterile Insect Technique, which is programmed through the development of the Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC Burkina) insectarium. The challenge will remain the sustainability of the achievement.

A pilot study to delimit tsetse target populations in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Tsetse (Glossina sensu stricto) are cyclical vectors of human and animal trypanosomoses, that are presently targeted by the Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC) coordinated by the African Union. In order to achieve effective control of tsetse, there is need to produce elaborate plans to guide intervention programmes. A model intended to aid in the planning of intervention programmes and assist a fuller understanding of tsetse distribution was applied, in a pilot study in the Masoka area, Mid-Zambezi valley in Zimbabwe, and targeting two savannah species, Glossina morsitans morsitans and Glossina pallidipes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The field study was conducted between March and December 2015 in 105 sites following a standardized grid sampling frame. Presence data were used to study habitat suitability of both species based on climatic and environmental data derived from MODIS and SPOT 5 satellite images. Factors influencing distribution were studied using an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whilst habitat suitability was predicted using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model at a spatial resolution of 250 m. Area Under the Curve (AUC), an indicator of model performance, was 0.89 for G. m. morsitans and 0.96 for G. pallidipes. We then used the predicted suitable areas to calculate the probability that flies were really absent from the grid cells where they were not captured during the study based on a probability model using a risk threshold of 0.05. Apart from grid cells where G. m. morsitans and G. pallidipes were captured, there was a high probability of presence in an additional 128 km2 and 144 km2 respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The modelling process promised to be useful in optimizing the outputs of presence/absence surveys, allowing the definition of tsetse infested areas with improved accuracy. The methodology proposed here can be extended to all the tsetse infested parts of Zimbabwe and may also be useful for other PATTEC national initiatives in other African countries.

Influence of temperature and relative humidity on survival and fecundity of three tsetse strains.

BACKGROUND: Tsetse flies occur in much of sub-Saharan Africa where they are vectors of trypanosomes that cause human and animal African trypanosomosis. The sterile insect technique (SIT) is currently used to eliminate tsetse fly populations in an area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) context in Senegal and Ethiopia. Three Glossina palpalis gambiensis strains [originating from Burkina Faso (BKF), Senegal (SEN) and an introgressed strain (SENbkf)] were established and are now available for use in future AW-IPM programmes against trypanosomes in West Africa. For each strain, knowledge of the environmental survival thresholds is essential to determine which of these strains is best suited to a particular environment or ecosystem, and can therefore be used effectively in SIT programmes. METHODS: In this paper, we investigated the survival and fecundity of three G. p. gambiensis strains maintained under various conditions: 25 °C and 40, 50, 60, and 75 % relative humidity (rH), 30 °C and 60 % rH and 35 °C and 60 % rH. RESULTS: The survival of the three strains was dependent on temperature only, and it was unaffected by changing humidity within the tested range. The BKF strain survived temperatures above its optimum better than the SEN strain. The SENbkf showed intermediate resistance to high temperatures. A temperature of about 32 °C was the limit for survival for all strains. A rH ranging from 40 to 76 % had no effect on fecundity at 25-26 °C. CONCLUSIONS: We discuss the implications of these results on tsetse SIT-based control programmes.

Range expansion of the Bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events.

The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica. Completing the puzzle, population genetic analyses discriminated Corsica as the origin of the new population and identified two successive colonization events within west-Mediterranean basin. Our findings are of considerable importance when trying to understand the invasion of new territories by expanding species.

Mapping landscape friction to locate isolated tsetse populations that are candidates for elimination.

Tsetse flies are the cyclical vectors of deadly human and animal trypanosomes in sub-Saharan Africa. Tsetse control is a key component for the integrated management of both plagues, but local eradication successes have been limited to less than 2% of the infested area. This is attributed to either resurgence of residual populations that were omitted from the eradication campaign or reinvasion from neighboring infested areas. Here we focused on Glossina palpalis gambiensis, a riverine tsetse species representing the main vector of trypanosomoses in West Africa. We mapped landscape resistance to tsetse genetic flow, hereafter referred to as friction, to identify natural barriers that isolate tsetse populations. For this purpose, we fitted a statistical model of the genetic distance between 37 tsetse populations sampled in the region, using a set of remotely sensed environmental data as predictors. The least-cost path between these populations was then estimated using the predicted friction map. The method enabled us to avoid the subjectivity inherent in the expert-based weighting of environmental parameters. Finally, we identified potentially isolated clusters of G. p. gambiensis habitat based on a species distribution model and ranked them according to their predicted genetic distance to the main tsetse population. The methodology presented here will inform the choice on the most appropriate intervention strategies to be implemented against tsetse flies in different parts of Africa. It can also be used to control other pests and to support conservation of endangered species.

A Spatio-temporal Model of African Animal Trypanosomosis Risk.

BACKGROUND: African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous risk of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT risk both in space and time, spatio-temporal models allowing predictions of it are lacking. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign) national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a "one layer-one model" approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This risk index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r2 = 67%), showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r2 = 22%) aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r2 = 2%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The presented spatio-temporal model provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT risk in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient risk management of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases.

Ex-ante benefit-cost analysis of the elimination of a Glossina palpalis gambiensis population in the Niayes of Senegal.

BACKGROUND: In 2005, the Government of Senegal embarked on a campaign to eliminate a Glossina palpalis gambiensis population from the Niayes area (∼ 1000 km(2)) under the umbrella of the Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC). The project was considered an ecologically sound approach to intensify cattle production. The elimination strategy includes a suppression phase using insecticide impregnated targets and cattle, and an elimination phase using the sterile insect technique, necessary to eliminate tsetse in this area. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three main cattle farming systems were identified: a traditional system using trypanotolerant cattle and two "improved" systems using more productive cattle breeds focusing on milk and meat production. In improved farming systems herd size was 45% lower and annual cattle sales were €250 (s.d. 513) per head as compared to €74 (s.d. 38) per head in traditional farming systems (p<10-3). Tsetse distribution significantly impacted the occurrence of these farming systems (p = 0.001), with 34% (s.d. 4%) and 6% (s.d. 4%) of improved systems in the tsetse-free and tsetse-infested areas, respectively. We calculated the potential increases of cattle sales as a result of tsetse elimination considering two scenarios, i.e. a conservative scenario with a 2% annual replacement rate from traditional to improved systems after elimination, and a more realistic scenario with an increased replacement rate of 10% five years after elimination. The final annual increase of cattle sales was estimated at ∼ €2800/km(2) for a total cost of the elimination campaign reaching ∼ €6400/km(2). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite its high cost, the benefit-cost analysis indicated that the project was highly cost-effective, with Internal Rates of Return (IRR) of 9.8% and 19.1% and payback periods of 18 and 13 years for the two scenarios, respectively. In addition to an increase in farmers' income, the benefits of tsetse elimination include a reduction of grazing pressure on the ecosystems.

Using species distribution models to optimize vector control in the framework of the tsetse eradication campaign in Senegal.

Tsetse flies are vectors of human and animal trypanosomoses in sub-Saharan Africa and are the target of the Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC). Glossina palpalis gambiensis (Diptera: Glossinidae) is a riverine species that is still present as an isolated metapopulation in the Niayes area of Senegal. It is targeted by a national eradication campaign combining a population reduction phase based on insecticide-treated targets (ITTs) and cattle and an eradication phase based on the sterile insect technique. In this study, we used species distribution models to optimize control operations. We compared the probability of the presence of G. p. gambiensis and habitat suitability using a regularized logistic regression and Maxent, respectively. Both models performed well, with an area under the curve of 0.89 and 0.92, respectively. Only the Maxent model predicted an expert-based classification of landscapes correctly. Maxent predictions were therefore used throughout the eradication campaign in the Niayes to make control operations more efficient in terms of deployment of ITTs, release density of sterile males, and location of monitoring traps used to assess program progress. We discuss how the models' results informed about the particular ecology of tsetse in the target area. Maxent predictions allowed optimizing efficiency and cost within our project, and might be useful for other tsetse control campaigns in the framework of the PATTEC and, more generally, other vector or insect pest control programs.