Antigenic distance between primary and secondary dengue infections correlates with disease risk.

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection even in previously exposed individuals. In addition, for some pathogens, such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains unclear whether the antigenic distances between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalizations across years. Here, we develop a framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterization of viruses with details on hospitalized cases from 21 years of dengue surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand, to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We found that the risk of hospitalization depended on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximized at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest that immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk and provide a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

Antigenic diversity and dengue disease risk.

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection. In addition, for some pathogens such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease, through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains a mystery whether the antigenic distance between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalisations across years. Here we develop an inferential framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterisation of viruses, and hospitalised cases from 21 years of surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We find that the risk of hospitalisation depends on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximised at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk, and provides a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

Phylogenetic Comparative Approach Reveals Evolutionary Conservatism, Ancestral Composition, and Integration of Vertebrate Gut Microbiota.

How host-associated microbial communities evolve as their hosts diversify remains equivocal: how conserved is their composition? What was the composition of ancestral microbiota? Do microbial taxa covary in abundance over millions of years? Multivariate phylogenetic models of trait evolution are key to answering similar questions for complex host phenotypes, yet they are not directly applicable to relative abundances, which usually characterize microbiota. Here, we extend these models in this context, thereby providing a powerful approach for estimating phylosymbiosis (the extent to which closely related host species harbor similar microbiota), ancestral microbiota composition, and integration (evolutionary covariations in bacterial abundances). We apply our model to the gut microbiota of mammals and birds. We find significant phylosymbiosis that is not entirely explained by diet and geographic location, indicating that other evolutionary-conserved traits shape microbiota composition. We identify main shifts in microbiota composition during the evolution of the two groups and infer an ancestral mammalian microbiota consistent with an insectivorous diet. We also find remarkably consistent evolutionary covariations among bacterial orders in mammals and birds. Surprisingly, despite the substantial variability of present-day gut microbiota, some aspects of their composition are conserved over millions of years of host evolutionary history.