Comparison of HIV prevalence, incidence, and viral load suppression in Zambia population-based HIV impact assessments from 2016 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: The Zambian government has implemented a public health response to control the HIV epidemic in the country. Zambia conducted a population-based HIV impact assessment (ZAMPHIA) survey in 2021 to assess the status of the HIV epidemic to guide its public health programs. METHODS: ZAMPHIA 2021 was a cross-sectional two-stage cluster sample household survey among persons aged ≥15 years conducted in Zambia across all 10 provinces. Consenting participants were administered a standardized questionnaire and whole blood was tested for HIV according to national guidelines. HIV-1 viral load (VL), recent HIV infection, and antiretroviral medications were tested for in HIV-seropositive samples. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as <1000 copies/ml. ZAMPHIA 2021 results were compared to ZAMPHIA 2016 for persons aged 15-59 years (i.e., the overlapping age ranges). All estimates were weighted to account for nonresponse and survey design. RESULTS: During ZAMPHIA 2021, of 25 483 eligible persons aged ≥15 years, 18 804 (73.8%) were interviewed and tested for HIV. HIV prevalence was 11.0% and VLS prevalence was 86.2% overall, but was <80% among people living with HIV aged 15-24 years and in certain provinces. Among persons aged 15-59 years, from 2016 to 2021, HIV incidence declined from 0.6% to 0.3% ( P -value: 0.07) and VLS prevalence increased from 59.2% to 85.7% ( P -value: <0.01). DISCUSSION: Zambia has made substantial progress toward controlling the HIV epidemic from 2016 to 2021. Continued implementation of a test-and-treat strategy, with attention to groups with lower VLS in the ZAMPHIA 2021, could support reductions in HIV incidence and improve overall VLS in Zambia.

The epidemiology of HIV population viral load in twelve sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: We examined the epidemiology and transmission potential of HIV population viral load (VL) in 12 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: We analyzed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs), large national household-based surveys conducted between 2015 and 2019 in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Blood-based biomarkers included HIV serology, recency of HIV infection, and VL. We estimated the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) with suppressed viral load (<1,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and with unsuppressed viral load (viremic), the prevalence of unsuppressed HIV (population viremia), sex-specific HIV transmission ratios (number female incident HIV-1 infections/number unsuppressed male PLHIV per 100 persons-years [PY] and vice versa) and examined correlations between a variety of VL metrics and incident HIV. Country sample sizes ranged from 10,016 (Eswatini) to 30,637 (Rwanda); estimates were weighted and restricted to participants 15 years and older. RESULTS: The proportion of female PLHIV with viral suppression was higher than that among males in all countries, however, the number of unsuppressed females outnumbered that of unsuppressed males in all countries due to higher overall female HIV prevalence, with ratios ranging from 1.08 to 2.10 (median: 1.43). The spatial distribution of HIV seroprevalence, viremia prevalence, and number of unsuppressed adults often differed substantially within the same countries. The 1% and 5% of PLHIV with the highest VL on average accounted for 34% and 66%, respectively, of countries' total VL. HIV transmission ratios varied widely across countries and were higher for male-to-female (range: 2.3-28.3/100 PY) than for female-to-male transmission (range: 1.5-10.6/100 PY). In all countries mean log10 VL among unsuppressed males was higher than that among females. Correlations between VL measures and incident HIV varied, were weaker for VL metrics among females compared to males and were strongest for the number of unsuppressed PLHIV per 100 HIV-negative adults (R2 = 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Despite higher proportions of viral suppression, female unsuppressed PLHIV outnumbered males in all countries examined. Unsuppressed male PLHIV have consistently higher VL and a higher risk of transmitting HIV than females. Just 5% of PLHIV account for almost two-thirds of countries' total VL. Population-level VL metrics help monitor the epidemic and highlight key programmatic gaps in these African countries.

Confluence of crises: COVID-19, "gassings", blood draws and the continued importance of community engagement in Zambia.

Background: Nationally representative, household-based, health-related surveys are an invaluable source of health information, but face implementation challenges. In sub-Saharan Africa, these challenges are exacerbated when surveys include the collection of biological specimens. In this study, we describe the potential implementation challenges identified during field practice leading up to the 2020 Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZAMPHIA) survey, and explore the role of two crises on community mistrust of, and apprehension to, participate in the survey. Methods: Using focus group methodology to better understand the influence of crises on ZAMPHIA participation, we conducted 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) in five districts across two provinces. FGDs were conducted with three purposively sampled study groups: recognized household heads, community leaders, and young adults aged 18-24 years. We used reflexive thematic analysis to develop themes from across the FGDs. Results: We identified two key themes: the ever-present threat a stranger posed to the community is enhanced by crises, and endorsement of community awareness through sensitization can mitigate outsider challenges in medical research. Conclusion: We argue that these crises emphasized underlying mistrust that can only be addressed with substantial investment in community engagement efforts to build trust and partnership in medical research endeavors. Our findings underline the importance of prioritizing community engagement through substantial investment in varied and extensive approaches to sensitization to facilitate community engagement toward community acceptance of ZAMPHIA and similar studies.

Influence of supply-side factors on voluntary medical male circumcision costs in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we described facility-level voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) unit cost, examined unit cost variation across facilities, and investigated key facility characteristics associated with unit cost variation. METHODS: We used data from 107 facilities in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia covering 2011 or 2012. We used micro-costing to estimate economic costs from the service provider's perspective. Average annual costs per client were estimated in 2013 United States dollars (US$). Econometric analysis was used to explore the relationship between VMMC total and unit cost and facility characteristics. RESULTS: Average VMMC unit cost ranged from US$66 (SD US$79) in Kenya to US$160 (SD US$144) in South Africa. Total cost function estimates were consistent with economies of scale and scope. We found a negative association between the number of VMMC clients and VMMC unit cost with a 3% decrease in unit cost for every 10% increase in number of clients and we found a negative association between the provision of other HIV services and VMMC unit cost. Also, VMMC unit cost was lower in primary health care facilities than in hospitals, and lower in facilities implementing task shifting. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial efficiency gains could be made in VMMC service delivery in all countries. Options to increase efficiency of VMMC programs in the short term include focusing service provision in high yield sites when demand is high, focusing on task shifting, and taking advantage of efficiencies created by integrating HIV services. In the longer term, reductions in VMMC unit cost are likely by increasing the volume of clients at facilities by implementing effective demand generation activities.

Status of HIV Epidemic Control Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women Aged 15-24 Years - Seven African Countries, 2015-2017.

In 2016, an estimated 1.5 million females aged 15-24 years were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Eastern and Southern Africa, where the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women (3.4%) is more than double that for males in the same age range (1.6%) (1). Progress was assessed toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 2020 targets for adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa (90% of those with HIV infection aware of their status, 90% of HIV-infected persons aware of their status on antiretroviral treatment [ART], and 90% of those on treatment virally suppressed [HIV viral load <1,000 HIV RNA copies/mL]) (2) using data from recent Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys in seven countries. The national prevalence of HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years, the percentage who were aware of their status, and among those persons who were aware, the percentage who had achieved viral suppression were calculated. The target for viral suppression among all persons with HIV infection is 73% (the product of 90% x 90% x 90%). Among all seven countries, the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women was 3.6%; among those in this group, 46.3% reported being aware of their HIV-positive status, and 45.0% were virally suppressed. Sustained efforts by national HIV and public health programs to diagnose HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women as early as possible to ensure rapid initiation of ART should help achieve epidemic control among adolescent girls and young women.

Differences in unintended pregnancy, contraceptive use and abortion by HIV status among women in Nigeria and Zambia.

CONTEXT: Sub-Saharan Africa is burdened by high rates of unintended pregnancy and HIV. Yet little is known about the relationship between these two health risks in the region. Understanding the associations between HIV status and pregnancy decision making may benefit strategies to reduce unintended pregnancy. METHODS: In 2009-2010, household-based surveys of 1,256 women in Nigeria and 1,280 women in Zambia collected information on social and demographic characteristics, unintended pregnancy, contraceptive use, abortion and self-reported HIV status. Multivariate models were used to examine the association of reported HIV status with unintended pregnancy and abortion in the five years preceding the survey and with contraceptive use at the time of conception. RESULTS: HIV-positive and HIV-negative women did not differ in their odds of unintended pregnancy or of having an abortion. However, HIV-positive women were more likely than HIV-negative women to have been using a contraceptive at the time their unintended pregnancy was conceived (odds ratio, 3.2). Women who did not know their HIV status were less likely than HIV-negative women to report an unintended pregnancy (0.6). However, they were also less likely than HIV-negative women to have been using a contraceptive at the time of conception (0.5). CONCLUSION: HIV-positive women may be making greater efforts than HIV-negative women to prevent unintended pregnancy, but with less success. Efforts should be made to improve access to effective contraceptive methods and counseling for all women, and for HIV-positive women in particular.

Does knowledge about antiretroviral therapy and mother-to-child transmission affect the relationships between HIV status and fertility preferences and contraceptive use? New evidence from Nigeria and Zambia.

The increasing availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and drug regimens to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) has probably changed the context of childbearing for people living with HIV. Using data from 2009-2010 community-based surveys in Nigeria and Zambia, this study explores whether women's knowledge about ART and PMTCT influences the relationship between HIV status and fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviour. The findings show that women living with HIV are more likely to want more children in Nigeria and to want to limit childbearing in Zambia compared with HIV-negative women. While there is no significant difference in contraceptive use by women's HIV status in the two countries, women who did not know their HIV status are less likely to use contraceptives relative to women who are HIV-negative. Knowledge about ART reduces the childbearing desires of HIV-positive women in Nigeria and knowledge about PMTCT increases desire for more children among HIV-positive women in Zambia, as well as contraceptive use among women who do not know their HIV status. The findings indicate that knowledge about HIV prevention and treatment services changes how living with HIV affects childbearing desires and, at least in Zambia, pregnancy prevention, and highlight the importance of access to accurate knowledge about ART and PMTCT services to assist women and men to make informed childbearing decisions. Knowledge about ART and PMTCT should be promoted not only through HIV treatment and maternal and newborn care facilities but also through family planning centres and the mass media.

Assessing cost and technical efficiency of HIV prevention interventions in sub-Saharan Africa: the ORPHEA study design and methods.

BACKGROUND: Scaling up services to achieve HIV targets will require that countries optimize the use of available funding. Robust unit cost estimates are essential for the better use of resources, and information on the heterogeneity in the unit cost of delivering HIV services across facilities - both within and across countries - is critical to identifying and addressing inefficiencies. There is limited information on the unit cost of HIV prevention services in sub-Saharan Africa and information on the heterogeneity within and across countries and determinants of this variation is even more scarce. The "Optimizing the Response in Prevention: HIV Efficiency in Africa" (ORPHEA) study aims to add to the empirical body of knowledge on the cost and technical efficiency of HIV prevention services that decision makers can use to inform policy and planning. METHODS/DESIGN: ORPHEA is a cross-sectional observational study conducted in 304 service delivery sites in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia to assess the cost, cost structure, cost variability, and the determinants of efficiency for four HIV interventions: HIV testing and counselling (HTC), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), and HIV prevention for sex workers. ORPHEA collected information at three levels (district, facility, and individual) on inputs to HIV prevention service production and their prices, outputs produced along the cascade of services, facility-level characteristics and contextual factors, district-level factors likely to influence the performance of facilities as well as the demand for HIV prevention services, and information on process quality for HTC, PMTCT, and VMMC services. DISCUSSION: ORPHEA is one of the most comprehensive studies on the cost and technical efficiency of HIV prevention interventions to date. The study applied a robust methodological design to collect comparable information to estimate the cost of HTC, PMTCT, VMMC, and sex worker prevention services in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia, the level of efficiency in the current delivery of these services, and the key determinants of efficiency. The results of the study will be important to decision makers in the study countries as well as those in countries facing similar circumstances and contexts.

Community attitudes towards childbearing and abortion among HIV-positive women in Nigeria and Zambia.

Although stigma towards HIV-positive women for both continuing and terminating a pregnancy has been documented, to date few studies have examined relative stigma towards one outcome versus the other. This study seeks to describe community attitudes towards each of two possible elective outcomes of an HIV-positive woman's pregnancy - induced abortion or birth - to determine which garners more stigma and document characteristics of community members associated with stigmatising attitudes towards each outcome. Data come from community-based interviews with reproductive-aged men and women, 2401 in Zambia and 2452 in Nigeria. Bivariate and multivariate analyses revealed that respondents from both countries overwhelmingly favoured continued childbearing for HIV-positive pregnant women, but support for induced abortion was slightly higher in scenarios in which anti-retroviral therapy (ART) was unavailable. Zambian respondents held more stigmatising attitudes towards abortion for HIV-positive women than did Nigerian respondents. Women held more stigmatising attitudes towards abortion for HIV-positive women than men, particularly in Zambia. From a sexual and reproductive health and rights perspective, efforts to assist HIV-positive women in preventing unintended pregnancy and to support them in their pregnancy decisions when they do become pregnant should be encouraged in order to combat the social stigma documented in this paper.

Sex with stitches: assessing the resumption of sexual activity during the postcircumcision wound-healing period.

OBJECTIVES: This study uses observational data collected as part of Zambia's male circumcision program to measure sexual behavior in the postsurgical healing period and to model its influence on HIV transmission for men and their partners. DESIGN/METHODS: From August to October 2010, 248 men about to undergo male circumcision were recruited to participate. Interviews were conducted at baseline and 6 weeks after circumcision, the recommended period of sexual abstinence for complete wound healing. Logistic and Poisson regression models were used to assess risk factors for early resumption of sex. A static-network deterministic transmission model was constructed to assess the impact of the program given early resumption of sex. RESULTS: Twenty-four percent of circumcised men reported resuming sex prior to 6 weeks after surgery. Of men having sex, 46% had sex in the first 3 weeks, 82% reported at least one unprotected sex act, and 37% reported sex with two or more partners. The model estimates that of the 61,000 men circumcised in 1 year, early resumption of sex leads to 69 extra HIV infections (32 among men, 37 among women), but it estimates a net effect of 230 fewer HIV infections in 1 year, predominantly among men. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of risky sexual behavior during wound healing is high and more likely among those reporting risky sexual behaviors at baseline. Nonetheless, the net effect of the male circumcision intervention is beneficial. The impact on women, however, is very sensitive to the prevalence of early resumption of sex.

Women's and men's fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviors by HIV status in 10 sub-Saharan African countries.

This article draws on biomarker data from Demographic and Health Surveys (2003-2007) in 10 sub-Saharan African countries to examine differences in fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviors by HIV status for women and men, taking into account whether or not they probably know their HIV status. The objective is to determine if there are common patterns in the associations between these variables across several countries. Women's and men's fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviors are relatively similar across HIV status and probable knowledge of that status. However, two consistent differences emerge in some of the countries: HIV-positive women who probably know their status are less likely to want more children and are more likely to be using male condoms than women who are HIV-negative and probably know it. A similar association is observed for men for condom use but not for limiting childbearing. Other factors unrelated to HIV status seem to be shaping women's and men's unmet demand for contraception and use of methods other than the condom.

Prevalence and correlates of concurrent sexual partnerships in Zambia.

Concurrent partnerships may cause more rapid spread of HIV in a population. We examined how the prevalence of parallel relationships changed among men and women aged 15-49 in Zambia from 1998 to 2003 using data collected during the Sexual Behavior Surveys 1998, 2000, and 2003. Predictors of concurrent partnerships among men were studied by univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Thirteen percent of rural and 8% of urban men reported more than one ongoing relationship in 1998, and these proportions declined to 8% and 6%, respectively in 2003. The proportion of women reporting concurrent relationships was 0-2%. The most important predictors of concurrency were early sexual debut, being married, early marriage and absence from home. The reduction in concurrent sexual partnerships is consistent with reductions in other sexual risk behaviors found in other studies and may have contributed to the recently observed decline in HIV prevalence in Zambia.

The impact of HIV infection on adult mortality in some communities in Zambia: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the contribution of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to adult death rates between 1995/1996 and 1998/1999 in some urban and rural populations in Zambia. METHOD: A cohort of 2592 out of 3013 adults aged 15-49 years enrolled in a baseline survey in 1995/1996 in areas of Chelston Township (HIV prevalence 26.2%) and Kapiri Mposhi district (HIV prevalence 15.6%) were followed up in 1998/1999. Person years of observation (PYO) were calculated for those known to have been alive, dead and migrated between the surveys. Fixed covariates Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to assess survival prospects. RESULTS: Death rates per 1000 PYO in the rural cohort were 38.1 among those with HIV, 4.8 among those without HIV and 9.8 for all; the population attributable fraction of deaths among those with HIV was 52.3%. Respective estimates in the urban cohort were 53.8, 4.6, 17.2 and 73.6%. The hazard rate (HR) ratio of death for persons infected with HIV was 8.7 times [HR 8.65; 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.28-14.15] higher than for the uninfected after adjusting for age, area of residence, marital status, self-rated health and years spent on education. HR among those who rated their health good/excellent was 40% less, i.e. HR 0.60 (95% CI: 0.40-0.91) than those who rated it to be poor/fair. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection was the most important factor accounting for adult deaths in the communities.

Steep HIV prevalence declines among young people in selected Zambian communities: population-based observations (1995-2003).

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiological HIV context is critical in building effective setting-specific preventive strategies. We examined HIV prevalence patterns in selected communities of men and women aged 15-59 years in Zambia. METHODS: Population-based HIV surveys in 1995 (n = 3158), 1999 (n = 3731) and 2003 (n = 4751) were conducted in selected communities using probability proportional to size stratified random-cluster sampling. Multivariate logistic regression and trend analyses were stratified by residence, sex and age group. Absence, <30% in men and <15% in women in all rounds, was the most important cause of non-response. Saliva was used for HIV testing, and refusal was <10%. RESULTS: Among rural groups aged 15-24 years, prevalence declined by 59.2% (15.7% to 6.4%, P < 0.001) in females and by 44.6% (5.6% to 3.1%, P < 0.001) in males. In age-group 15-49 years, declines were less than 25%. In the urban groups aged 15-24, prevalence declined by 47% (23.4% to 12.4%, P < 0.001) among females and 57.3% (7.5% to 3.2%, P = 0.001) among males but were 32% and 27% in men and women aged 15-49, respectively. Higher educated young people in 2003 had lower odds of infection than in 1995 in both urban [men: AOR 0.29(95% CI 0.14-0.60); women: AOR 0.38(95% CI 0.19-0.79)] and rural groups [men: AOR 0.16(95% CI 0.11-0.25), women: AOR 0.10(95% CI 0.01-7.34)]. Although higher mobility was associated with increased likelihood of infection in men overall, AOR, 1.71(95% CI 1.34-2.19), prevalence declined in mobile groups also (OR 0.52 95% CI 0.31-0.88). In parallel, urban young people with > or =11 school years were more likely to use condoms during the last casual sex (OR 2.96 95% CI 1.93-4.52) and report less number of casual sexual partners (AOR 0.33 95% CI 0.19-0.56) in the last twelve months than lower educated groups. CONCLUSION: Steep HIV prevalence declines in young people, suggesting continuing declining incidence, were masked by modest overall declines. The concentration of declines in higher educated groups suggests a plausible association with behavioural change.

Reducing uncertainties in global HIV prevalence estimates: the case of Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The premise for using antenatal care (ANC) clinic data for estimating HIV prevalence in the general population is the finding from community studies in sub-Saharan Africa that total HIV prevalence in pregnant women attending ANC clinics closely approximate levels in the total general population of both women and men aged 15-49 years. In this study, the validity of national level HIV prevalence estimates for the total general population 15-49 years made from ANC clinic and population survey data was assessed. METHODS: In 2001-2002, a national population HIV prevalence survey for women 15-49 years and men 15-59 years was conducted in Zambia. In the same period, a national HIV sentinel surveillance survey among pregnant women attending ANC clinics was carried out. RESULTS: The ANC HIV prevalence estimates for age-group 15-49 years (rural: 11.5%; 95% CI, 11.2-11.8; urban: 25.4%; 95% CI, 24.8-26.0; adjusted national: 16.9%; 95% CI, 16.6-17.2) were similar to the population survey estimates (rural: 10.8%; 95% CI, 9.6-12.1; urban: 23.2%; 95% CI 20.7-25.6; national: 15.6%; 95% CI, 14.4-16.9). The HIV prevalence urban to rural ratio was 2.2 in ANC and 2.1 in population survey estimates. CONCLUSION: The HIV prevalence estimate for the total general population 15-49 years derived from testing both women and men in the population survey was similar to the estimate derived from testing women attending ANC clinics. It shows that national HIV prevalence estimates for adults aged 15-49 years can also be obtained from ANC HIV sentinel surveillance surveys with good coverage when ANC attendance and fertility are high.