Prediction of long-term mortality following hip fracture surgery: evaluation of three risk models.

INTRODUCTION: Several prognostic models have been developed for mortality in hip fracture patients, but their accuracy for long-term prediction is unclear. This study evaluates the performance of three models assessing 30-day, 1-year and 8-year mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the model developed by Holt et al. and the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with a fractured hip between January 2012 and June 2013 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Relevant variables used by the three models were collected, as were mortality data. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by determining risk groups for each model, comparing differences in mortality using Kaplan-Meier curves, and by assessing positive and negative predictive values. RESULTS: A total of 344 patients were included for analysis. Observed mortality rates were 6.1% after 30 days, 19.1% after 1 year and 68.6% after 8 years. The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. demonstrated good to excellent discrimination and adequate calibration for both short- and long-term mortality prediction, with similar clinical usefulness measures. The HEMA demonstrated inferior prediction of 30-day and 8-year mortality, with worse discriminative abilities and a significant lack of fit. CONCLUSIONS: The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. allowed for accurate identification of low- and high-risk patients for both short- and long-term mortality after a fracture of the hip. The HEMA performed poorly. When considering predictive performance and ease of use, the NHFS seems most suitable for implementation in daily clinical practice.

Mortality Prediction in Hip Fracture Patients: Physician Assessment Versus Prognostic Models.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate 2 prognostic models for mortality after a fracture of the hip, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam and to compare their predictive performance to physician assessment of mortality risk in hip fracture patients. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Two level-2 trauma centers located in the Netherlands. PATIENTS: Two hundred forty-four patients admitted to the Emergency Departments of both hospitals with a fractured hip. INTERVENTION: Data used in both prediction models were collected at the time of admission for each individual patient, as well as predictions of mortality by treating physicians. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictive performances were evaluated for 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality. Discrimination was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC); calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; clinical usefulness in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: Mortality was 7.4% after 30 days, 22.1% after 1 year, and 59.4% after 5 years. There were no statistically significant differences in discrimination between the prediction methods (AUC 0.73-0.80). The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score demonstrated underfitting for 30-day mortality and failed to identify the majority of high-risk patients (sensitivity 33%). The Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam showed systematic overestimation and overfitting. Physicians were able to identify most high-risk patients for 30-day mortality (sensitivity 78%) but with some overestimation. Both risk models demonstrated a lack of fit when used for 1-year and 5-year mortality predictions. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, prognostic models and physicians demonstrated similar discriminating abilities when predicting mortality in hip fracture patients. Although physicians overestimated mortality, they were better at identifying high-risk patients and at predicting long-term mortality. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Dutch Lung Surgery Audit: A National Audit Comprising Lung and Thoracic Surgery Patients.

BACKGROUND: The nationwide Dutch Lung Surgery Audit (DLSA) started in 2012 to monitor and evaluate the quality of lung operations in The Netherlands as an improvement tool. This outline describes the establishment, structure, and organization of the audit by the Dutch Society of Lung Surgeons (NVvL) and the Dutch Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons (NVT), in collaboration with the Dutch Institute for Clinical Auditing. In addition, the first 4-year results are presented. METHODS: The NVvL and NVT initiated a web-based registration, including weekly updated online feedback for participating hospitals. Data verification by external data managers is performed on regular basis. The audit is incorporated in national quality improvement programs, and participation in the DLSA is mandatory by health insurance organizations and the National Healthcare Inspectorate. RESULTS: Between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2015, all hospitals performing lung operations participated, and a total of 19,557 patients were registered from which almost half comprised lung cancer patients. Nationwide the guideline adherence increased over the years, and 96.5% of lung cancer patients were discussed in preoperative multidisciplinary teams. Overall postoperative complications and mortality after non-small cell lung cancer operations were 15.5% and 2.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The audit provides reliable benchmarked information for caregivers and hospital management with potential to start local, regional, or national improvement initiatives. Currently, the audit is further completed with data from nonsurgical lung cancer patients, including treatment data from pulmonary oncologists and radiation oncologists. This will ultimately provide a comprehensive overview of lung cancer treatment in The Netherlands.

Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

OBJECTIVES: Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). METHODS: Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. RESULTS: Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Internal fixation for coronal shear fracture of the capitellum with polylactide resorbable fixation.

A 24-year-old woman with pain in the right elbow after a fall demonstrated a coronal shear fracture on radiographic studies. Perioperative a coronal shear fracture was seen and treated successfully with a polylactide Rigid fix resorbable pin. The operative correction resulted in normal function at 6 months follow-up. We state that a capitellum shear fracture can be fixated with a single resorbable pin, leading to successful fusion.

Primary hemiarthroplasty versus conservative treatment for comminuted fractures of the proximal humerus in the elderly (ProCon): a multicenter randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Fractures of the proximal humerus are associated with a profound temporary and sometimes permanent, impairment of function and quality of life. The treatment of comminuted fractures of the proximal humerus like selected three-or four-part fractures and split fractures of the humeral head is a demanding and unresolved problem, especially in the elderly. Locking plates appear to offer improved fixation; however, screw cut-out rates ranges due to fracture collapse are high. As this may lead to higher rates of revision surgery, it may be preferable to treat comminuted fractures in the elderly primarily with a prosthesis or non-operatively. Results from case series and a small-sample randomized controlled trial (RCT) suggest improved function and less pain after primary hemiarthroplasty (HA); however these studies had some limitations and a RCT is needed. The primary aim of this study is to compare the Constant scores (reflecting functional outcome and pain) at one year after primary HA versus non-operative treatment in elderly patients who sustained a comminuted proximal humeral fracture. Secondary aims include effects on functional outcome, pain, complications, quality of life, and cost-effectiveness. METHODS/DESIGN: A prospective, multi-center RCT will be conducted in nine centers in the Netherlands and Belgium. Eighty patients over 65 years of age, who have sustained a three-or four part, or split head proximal humeral fracture will be randomized between primary hemiarthroplasty and conservative treatment. The primary outcome is the Constant score, which indicates pain and function. Secondary outcomes include the Disability of the Arm and Shoulder (DASH) score, Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for pain, radiographic healing, health-related quality of life (Short-form-36, EuroQol-5D) and healthcare consumption. Cost-effectiveness ratios will be determined for both trial arms. Outcome will be monitored at regular intervals over the subsequent 24 months (1, 3 and 6 weeks, and 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months). Data will be analyzed on an intention to treat basis, using univariate and multivariable analyses. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide level-1 evidence on the effectiveness of the two mostly applied treatment options for three-or four part and split head proximal humeral fractures in the elderly. These data may support the development of a clinical guideline for treatment of these traumatic injuries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register (NTR2040).

Residual disease at the bronchial stump after curative resection for lung cancer.

The most important surgical goal during potentially curative surgery for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a macroscopic and microscopic radical resection (R0-resection). Studies reporting on recurrence and long-term survival mainly comprise patients with completely resected NSCLC (R0-resection). However, there is limited data on incidence, treatment and prognosis of patients with microscopic residual tumour tissue at the bronchial resection margin (R1-resection). Furthermore, the definition of an R1-resection of the bronchial resection margin is not uniform in literature. Based on 19 studies published between 1945 and 2003 with a substantial number of included patients with resected NSCLC, the incidence of an R1-resection of the bronchial resection margin is approximately 4-5% (range 1.2-17%) of all lung resections. Divided into the localisation of the microscopic residual disease, survival of patients with carcinoma in situ (CIS) at the bronchial resection margin is comparable to the survival after a radical resection. The prognosis is negatively influenced in case of microscopic mucosal residual disease. Survival is even worse in patients with peribronchial residual disease; 1- and 5-year survivals range between 20-50% and 0-20%, respectively. This poor prognosis is because peribronchial residual disease, in 75-85% of the patients, is associated with mediastinal lymph node metastasis. According to the stage, survival of patients with stage I and II NSCLC and an R1-resection of the bronchial resection margin is significantly worse as compared to stage-corrected survival after a radical resection. In these patients, survival is limited due to local recurrence. The negative effect of an R1-resection of the bronchial margin in stage III NSCLC is limited, as these patients die due to disseminated disease (distant metastasis) before local recurrence occurs. A conservative approach with frequent bronchoscopic surveillance is justified for CIS. For patients with microscopic residual disease at the bronchial margin and stage I and II NSCLC, further treatment has to be considered. Adjuvant treatment in patients with stage III NSCLC has no proven benefit in terms of survival.

Initial bronchoscopic treatment for patients with intraluminal bronchial carcinoids.

OBJECTIVE: Carcinoid of the lung is considered low-grade malignancy, and less invasive treatment may therefore be considered. We analyzed the long-term outcome of initial bronchoscopic treatment in patients with intraluminal bronchial carcinoids. METHODS: Initial bronchoscopic treatment was applied to improve presurgical condition, to obtain tissue samples for proper histologic classification, and to enable less extensive parenchymal resection. For intraluminal bronchial carcinoid, complete tumor eradication with initial bronchoscopic treatment was attempted. High-resolution computed tomography in addition to bronchoscopy was used to determine intraluminal versus extraluminal tumor growth. Surgery followed in cases of atypical carcinoid, residue, or recurrence. RESULTS: Seventy-two patients, 43 of them female, have been treated (median age 47 years, range 16-80 years). Median follow-up has been 65 months (range 2-180 months). Fifty-seven (79%) had typical carcinoids and 15 (21%) had atypical carcinoids. Initial bronchoscopic treatment resulted in complete tumor eradication in 33 of 72 cases (46%), 30 typical and 3 atypical. Thirty-seven of 72 cases (51%), 11 atypical, required surgery (2 for late detected recurrences). Two patients had metastatic atypical carcinoid, 1 already at referral. Of the 6 deaths, 1 was tumor related. CONCLUSIONS: Initial bronchoscopic treatment is a potentially more tissue-sparing alternative than immediate surgical resection in patients with intraluminal bronchial carcinoids. For successful tumor eradication with initial bronchoscopic treatment in central carcinoids, assessment of intraluminal versus extraluminal growth may be of much more importance than histologic division between typical and atypical carcinoid. Disease-specific mortality is low, and long-term outcome has been excellent. Implementation of initial bronchoscopic treatment had no negative impact on surgical treatment outcome.

Mitotic index does not predict prognosis in stage IA non-small cell lung cancer.

Despite radical resection, many patients with stage IA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) die of metastatic disease, showing that apparently there were already micrometastases at the time of surgery. To identify patients at risk for metastatic disease, accurate prognostic factors are needed. Because the mitotic activity index (MAI) is of good prognostic value in several other cancers, we assessed its value in stage IA NSCLC. We assessed the MAI in the sections of 133 patients with radically resected stage IA NSCLC. MAI, histologic subtype, age, sex, location of tumor, type of surgery and tumor diameter were correlated with survival. The mean MAI was 29, ranging from 0 to 89. MAI was not correlated to histologic tumor type or lymph node sample procedure, or any of the other clinicopathologic features. No correlation was found between MAI and survival. Univariate analysis showed that only age was a significant predictor of survival (P = 0.0007). This was confirmed by multivariate analysis. The mitotic index is not a predictor of prognosis in stage IA NSCLC. Therefore other prognostic factors have to be investigated.