Development of machine learning models for detection of vision threatening Behçet's disease (BD) using Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR)-BD cohort.

BACKGROUND: Eye lesions, occur in nearly half of patients with Behçet's Disease (BD), can lead to irreversible damage and vision loss; however, limited studies are available on identifying risk factors for the development of vision-threatening BD (VTBD). Using an Egyptian college of rheumatology (ECR)-BD, a national cohort of BD patients, we examined the performance of machine-learning (ML) models in predicting VTBD compared to logistic regression (LR) analysis. We identified the risk factors for the development of VTBD. METHODS: Patients with complete ocular data were included. VTBD was determined by the presence of any retinal disease, optic nerve involvement, or occurrence of blindness. Various ML-models were developed and examined for VTBD prediction. The Shapley additive explanation value was used for the interpretability of the predictors. RESULTS: A total of 1094 BD patients [71.5% were men, mean ± SD age 36.1 ± 10 years] were included. 549 (50.2%) individuals had VTBD. Extreme Gradient Boosting was the best-performing ML model (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI 0.81, 0.90) compared with logistic regression (AUROC 0.64, 95%CI 0.58, 0.71). Higher disease activity, thrombocytosis, ever smoking, and daily steroid dose were the top factors associated with VTBD. CONCLUSIONS: Using information obtained in the clinical settings, the Extreme Gradient Boosting identified patients at higher risk of VTBD better than the conventional statistical method. Further longitudinal studies to evaluate the clinical utility of the proposed prediction model are needed.

Rheumatoid arthritis study of the Egyptian College of Rheumatology (ECR): nationwide presentation and worldwide stance.

To depict the spectrum of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Egypt in relation to other universal studies to provide broad-based characteristics to this particular population. This work included 10,364 adult RA patients from 26 specialized Egyptian rheumatology centers representing 22 major cities all over the country. The demographic and clinical features as well as therapeutic data were assessed. The mean age of the patients was 44.8 ± 11.7 years, disease duration 6.4 ± 6 years, and age at onset 38.4 ± 11.6 years; 209 (2%) were juvenile-onset. They were 8750 females and 1614 males (F:M 5.4:1). 8% were diabetic and 11.5% hypertensive. Their disease activity score (DAS28) was 4.4 ± 1.4 and health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) 0.95 ± 0.64. The rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) were positive in 73.7% and 66.7% respectively. Methotrexate was the most used treatment (78%) followed by hydroxychloroquine (73.7%) and steroids (71.3%). Biologic therapy was received by 11.6% with a significantly higher frequency by males vs females (15.7% vs 10.9%, p = 0.001). The least age at onset, F:M, RF and anti-CCP positivity were present in Upper Egypt (p < 0.0001), while the highest DAS28 was reported in Canal cities and Sinai (p < 0.0001). The HAQ was significantly increased in Upper Egypt with the least disability in Canal cities and Sinai (p = 0.001). Biologic therapy intake was higher in Lower Egypt followed by the Capital (p < 0.0001). The spectrum of RA phenotype in Egypt is variable across the country with an increasing shift in the F:M ratio. The age at onset was lower than in other countries.

Systemic lupus erythematosus children in Egypt: Homeland spectrum amid the global situation.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to present the manifestations of juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) across Egypt, to focus on age at onset and gender-driven influence on disease characteristics, and to compare findings to other countries. METHODS: The study included 404 Egyptian children with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) presenting to one of the specialized rheumatology centers corresponding to 13 major governorates. Juvenile cases age was ≤ 16°years at the time of recruitment. The SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) and damage index (DI) were assessed. RESULTS: The mean age was 13.2 ± 2.4°years; 355 females and 49 males (7.2:1), and the disease duration was 2.3 ± 1.6 years, while age at disease onset was 11.1 ± 2.5°years. Their SLEDAI was 13.5 ± 12.3, and DI, 0.36 ± 0.78. The overall estimated prevalence of childhood-SLE patients in the recruited cohort in Egypt was 1/100,000 population (0.24/100000 males and 1.8/100000 females). 7.4% developed pre-pubertal SLE (≤ 7 years); 73.3%, peri-pubertal; and 19.3% during early adolescence. The differences according to age group were equal for gender and clinical manifestations except skin lesions present in 59.3% of pre-pubertal onset, 74.6% of peri-pubertal, and 84.2% of adolescents (p = 0.029), and renal involvement in 73.8% of peripubertal, 62.1% of pre-pubertal and 58.9% of adolescents (p = 0.03). Laboratory investigations, SLEDAI, and DI were similar among age categories. Lupus nephritis was more common in Egypt compared to JSLE from other countries. CONCLUSION: Our large multicenter study identified that female gender influenced disease characteristics with more frequent skin involvement. Skin lesions were significantly higher in adolescents, while renal involvement in peri-pubertal children.

Development and validation of a Behçet's Disease Damage Index for adults with BD: An Explicit, Composite and Rated (ECR) tool.

BACKGROUND: Behçet's disease (BD) is a chronic multisystem variable vessel vasculitis. Disease damage is irreversible and permanent. Validated tools evaluating damage are limited. Enhancements in the clinical treatment of vasculitis will take place from the development of refined and exclusive indices for individual vasculitic syndromes including BD and attempting their international validation. OBJECTIVES: This aim was to develop and validate a simple BD Damage Index (BDI). METHODS: This was a nationwide study including 1252 BD patients. The work consisted of 3 stages. Stage 1: items generation for score content. Stage 2: items selection for the draft score was performed by an expert rheumatologist. Stage 3: the content validity of the draft score was assessed and BDI, Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI), Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated Vasculitis Index of Damage (AVID) and Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDAI) were calculated and compared. RESULTS: The mean age of the BD patients was 36.1 ± 9.9 years. Stages 1 and 2 resulted in a BDI instrument containing 73 items with a maximum score of 100. Stage 3, the VDI, CDAI, AVID, and BDI were 2.9 ± 2.2, 3.1 ± 2.3, 3.1 ± 2.3 and 5.1 ± 2.9, respectively. High correlations (r = .9) between comparable damage scores assured acceptable concurrent validity. CONCLUSION: The proposed BDI represents a new robust and potentially useful tool when dealing with BD chronic status.

Rheumatology university faculty opinion on coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccines: the vaXurvey study from Egypt.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present work was to explore the perspectives of Egyptian Rheumatology staff members as regards the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccine. METHODS: The survey is composed of 25 questions. Some questions were adapted from the global rheumatology alliance COVID-19 survey for patients. RESULTS: 187 rheumatology staff members across Egypt from 18 universities and authorizations actively participated with a valid response. The mean time needed to complete the survey was 17.7 ± 13 min. Participants were 159 (85%) females (F:M 5.7:1). One-third agreed that they will be vaccinated once available, 24.6% have already received at least one dose, 29.4% are unsure while 16% will not take it. Furthermore, 70.1% agreed that they will recommend it to the rheumatic diseases (RD) patients once available, 24.1% are not sure while 5.9% will not recommend it. RD priority to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in descending order include SLE (82.9%), RA (55.1%), vasculitis (51.3%), systemic sclerosis (39.6%), MCTD (31.6%), Behcet's disease (28.3%). The most common drugs to be avoided before vaccination included biologics (71.7%), DMARDs (44.4%), biosimilars (26.7%), IVIg (17.1%) and NSAIDs (9.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study and specifically the low rate of acceptability are alarming to Egyptian health authorities and should stir further interventions to reduce the levels of vaccine hesitancy. As rheumatic disease patients in Egypt were not systematically provided with the vaccine till present, making the vaccine available could as well enhance vaccine acceptance. Further studies to investigate any possible side effects, on a large scale of RD patients are warranted.

Adult systemic lupus erythematosus in Egypt: The nation-wide spectrum of 3661 patients and world-wide standpoint.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to present the epidemiology, clinical manifestations and treatment pattern of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Egyptian patients over the country and compare the findings to large cohorts worldwide. Objectives were extended to focus on the age at onset and gender driven influence on the disease characteristics. PATIENTS AND METHOD: This population-based, multicenter, cross-sectional study included 3661 adult SLE patients from Egyptian rheumatology departments across the nation. Demographic, clinical, and therapeutic data were assessed for all patients. RESULTS: The study included 3661 patients; 3296 females and 365 males (9.03:1) and the median age was 30 years (17-79 years), disease duration 4 years (0-75 years) while the median age at disease onset was 25 years (4-75 years). The overall estimated prevalence of adult SLE in Egypt was 6.1/100,000 population (1.2/100,000 males and 11.3/100,000 females).There were 316 (8.6%) juvenile-onset (Jo-SLE) and 3345 adult-onset (Ao-SLE). Age at onset was highest in South and lowest in Cairo (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: SLE in Egypt had a wide variety of clinical and immunological manifestations, with some similarities with that in other nations and differences within the same country. The clinical characteristics, autoantibodies and comorbidities are comparable between Ao-SLE and Jo-SLE. The frequency of various clinical and immunological manifestations varied between gender. Additional studies are needed to determine the underlying factors contributing to gender and age of onset differences.

Correction to: Behçet's disease in Egypt: a multicenter nationwide study on 1526 adult patients and review of the literature.

The author wishes to correct the record and clarify that in the original version of this article in the Discussion section under "Prevalence over the country governorates" inadvertently presented incorrect data cited in the reference [30].

Behçet's disease in Egypt: a multicenter nationwide study on 1526 adult patients and review of the literature.

OBJECTIVES: The present work was conducted to estimate the prevalence of adult Behçet's disease (BD) in adult Egyptian and to study the clinical pattern and influence of age at-onset and sex on disease phenotype. Also, we investigated the spectrum of presentation and frequencies along the north-to-south gradient of the country. PATIENTS AND METHOD: The population-based, multicenter, cross-sectional study included 1526 adult BD patients from 26 specialized Egyptian rheumatology centers. Demographic, clinical, and therapeutic data are assessed for all patients. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 35.7 ± 9.84 years, disease duration 6.58 ± 5.25 years, and age at onset 29.37 ± 8.6 years; 91 were juvenile-onset (JoBD). There were 1102 males and 424 females (M:F 2.6:1). Regarding co-morbidities, 19.92% were diabetic, and 26.05% were hypertensive. The mean body mass index was 27.57 ± 5.24 (43.1% overweight; 25.9% obese). The mean BD current activity form was 4.48 ± 4.28. Regarding the medications use, systemic steroid and colchicine were the most common drugs used (947 (90.2%) and 611 (82.7%), respectively). The overall estimated prevalence of BD in Egypt was 3.6/100,000 population being highest in the two main cities: Alexandria (15.27) and Cairo (8.72). Pathergy test was positive in 43.4%. 90.2% were receiving systemic steroids and 8.3%, biologics. Disease characteristics were comparable between JoBD and adult-onset BD cases. Central nervous system (CNS), deep venous thrombosis (DVT), and gastrointestinal (GIT) involvement were significantly higher in males (p = 0.01, p = 0.001, and p = 0.001 respectively) while joint affection (p = 0.001) and disease activity (p = 0.011) were increased in females. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides current prevalence of BD in Egypt; 3.6/100,000 with no remarkable north-to-south gradient. The sex influences the disease phenotype with the CNS, DVT, and GIT involvement are higher in males, while the joint affection and disease activity were increased in females. KEY POINTS: • The prevalence and phenotype of Behçet's disease across Egypt is presented in a multicenter nationwide study. • The potential influence of the age at onset and sex on disease phenotype is highlightened. • A review of the literature worldwide is presented allowing comparisons with studies from other nations.

Prevalence of juvenile idiopathic arthritis in Sharkia Governorate, Egypt: epidemiological study.

Our objective was to determine the prevalence juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) in Sharkia Governorate, Egypt. Population-based study was performed to identify the prevalence of JIA in Sharkia Governorate, Egypt, between November 2009 and November 2010. Prevalence of JIA was 3.43 per 100,000 (95 % CI 3.1-4.3). Prevalence in boys was 2.58 per 100,000 (95 % CI 2.4-3.6) and in girls 4.33 per 100,000 (95 % CI 3.3-5.1). Uveitis presented in 19.7 % of cases, antinuclear antibody in 48.5 %, and rheumatoid factor in 27.2 %. Oligoarthritis representing 52.2 % of the total population, and enthesitis-related arthritis presented only in 6 patients. No cases of undifferentiated arthritis or psoriatic arthritis were found. This is the first epidemiological study of JIA in Sharkia, Egypt. Oligoarthritis was the most common subtype.

PADI4 polymorphisms and related haplotype in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether peptidyl arginine deiminase type IV gene (PADI4) polymorphisms contribute to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) susceptibility in Egyptians, whether they influence disease severity and activity, and whether they affect anti-mutated citrullinated vimentin antibodies (anti-MCV) level. METHODS: Three PADI4 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (PADI4-92, PADI4-96, and PADI4-102) were screened in 275 RA patients and 275 unaffected controls by polymerase chain reaction-based restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Serum anti-MCV levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RESULTS: There were significant associations between RA susceptibility with the minor alleles of PADI4-92 and PADI4-102 [odds ratio (OD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the minor alleles of PADI4-92 and PADI4-102: 1.48 (1.17-1.88) and 2.05 (1.61-2.61) respectively] but not with PADI4-96 [OD and 95% CI for the C allele: 1.09 (0.86-1.39)]. PADI4 haplotypes 2 (GCC) and 3 (GCT) were also associated with RA susceptibility while PADI4 haplotypes 1 (CTC) may be protective against developing of this disease. A significant association was detected between PADI4 haplotypes and RA severity. CONCLUSIONS: The PADI4 SNPs and haplotypes were associated with RA susceptibility, although no relation was observed between the PADI4 haplotypes and anti-MCV levels.