Lifetime effects and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy for older people in the United Kingdom: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk increases with age. Statins reduce cardiovascular risk but their effects are less certain at older ages. We assessed the long-term effects and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy for older people in the contemporary UK population using a recent meta-analysis of randomised evidence of statin effects in older people and a new validated CVD model. METHODS: The performance of the CVD microsimulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (CTTC) and UK Biobank cohort, was assessed among participants ≥70 years old at (re)surveys in UK Biobank and the Whitehall II studies. The model projected participants' cardiovascular risks, survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs (2021 UK£) with and without lifetime standard (35%-45% low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction) or higher intensity (≥45% reduction) statin therapy. CTTC individual participant data and other meta-analyses informed statins' effects on cardiovascular risks, incident diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis. Sensitivity of findings to smaller CVD risk reductions and to hypothetical further adverse effects with statins were assessed. RESULTS: In categories of men and women ≥70 years old without (15,019) and with (5,103) prior CVD, lifetime use of a standard statin increased QALYs by 0.24-0.70 and a higher intensity statin by a further 0.04-0.13 QALYs per person. Statin therapies were cost-effective with an incremental cost per QALY gained below £3502/QALY for standard and below £11778/QALY for higher intensity therapy and with high probability of being cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, statins remained cost-effective although with larger uncertainty in cost-effectiveness among older people without prior CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Based on current evidence for the effects of statin therapy and modelling analysis, statin therapy improved health outcomes cost-effectively for men and women ≥70 years old.

Empagliflozin lowers serum uric acid in chronic kidney disease: exploratory analyses from the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Hyperuricaemia and gout are common in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to assess the effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibition on uric acid (urate) and gout in patients with CKD. METHODS: The EMPA-KIDNEY trial randomised 6609 patients with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≥20 and <90 mL/min/1.73m2) to receive either empagliflozin 10 mg daily or matching placebo over a median of two years follow-up. Serum uric acid was measured at randomisation then 2 and 18 months of follow-up and the effects of empagliflozin were analysed using a pre-specified mixed model repeated measures approach. Participant-reported gout events were analysed in Cox regression models (first events) with the Andersen-Gill extension (total events). A post-hoc composite outcome included new initiation of uric acid lowering therapy or colchicine. EMPA-KIDNEY primary and kidney disease progression outcomes were also assessed in subgroups of baseline serum uric acid. RESULTS: Baseline mean ± SD serum uric acid concentration was 431±114 µmol/L. Allocation to empagliflozin resulted in a study-average between-group difference in serum uric acid of -25.6 (95%CI -30.3,-21.0) µmol/L with larger effects in those with higher eGFR (trend P < 0.001) and without diabetes (heterogeneity P < 0.001). Compared to placebo, empagliflozin did not significantly reduce first or total gout events (HR 0.87, 95%CI 0.74-1.02 for the 595 first events, and 0.86, 0.72-1.03 for the 869 total events) with similar hazard ratios for the post-hoc composite and across subgroups, including by diabetes and eGFR. The effect of empagliflozin on the primary outcome and kidney disease progression outcomes were similar irrespective of baseline level of uric acid. CONCLUSION: SGLT2 inhibition reduces serum uric acid in patients with CKD with larger effects at higher eGFR and in the absence of diabetes. However, the effect on uric acid is modest and did not translate into reduced risk of gout in EMPA-KIDNEY.

Associations of fruit intake with adiposity and cardiometabolic biomarkers in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Fruit consumption has been associated with a lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. We investigated the cross-sectional and prospective associations of fruit consumption with markers of adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, low-grade inflammation, glycaemia, and oxidative stress. METHODS: The main analyses included 365 534 middle-aged adults from the UK Biobank at baseline, of whom 11 510, and 38 988 were included in the first and second follow-up respectively, free from CVD and cancer at baseline. Fruit consumption frequency at baseline was assessed using a questionnaire. We assessed the cross-sectional and prospective associations of fruit with adiposity (body mass index, waist circumference and %body fat), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, lipids (low-density and high-density lipoproteins, triglycerides and apolipoprotein B), glycaemia (haemoglobin A1c), low-grade inflammation (C-reactive protein) and oxidative stress (gamma-glutamyl-transferase) using linear regression models adjusted for socioeconomic and lifestyle factors. Analyses were repeated in a subset with two to five complete 24-h dietary assessments (n = 26 596) allowing for adjustment for total energy intake. RESULTS: Fruit consumption at baseline generally showed weak inverse associations with adiposity and biomarkers at baseline. Most of these relationships did not persist through follow-up, except for inverse associations with diastolic blood pressure, C-reactive protein, gamma-glutamyl transferase and adiposity. However, for most mechanisms, mean levels varied by less than 0.1 standard deviations (SD) between high and low fruit consumption (> 3 vs < 1 servings/day) in further adjusted models (while the difference was < 0.2 SD for all of them). For example, waist circumference and diastolic blood pressure were 1 cm and 1 mmHg lower in high compared to low fruit intake at the first follow-up (95% confidence interval: -1.8, -0.1 and -1.8, -0.3, respectively). Analyses in the 24-h dietary assessment subset showed overall similar associations. CONCLUSIONS: We observed very small differences in adiposity and cardiometabolic biomarkers between those who reported high fruit consumption vs low, most of which did not persist over follow-up. Future studies on other mechanisms and detailed assessment of confounding might further elucidate the relevance of fruit to cardiovascular disease.

Frailty, multimorbidity and polypharmacy: exploratory analyses of the effects of empagliflozin from the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are recommended treatment for adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but uncertainty exists regarding their use in patients with frailty and/or multimorbidity, among whom polypharmacy is common. We derived a multivariable logistic regression model to predict hospitalization (reflecting frailty) and assessed empagliflozin's risk-benefit profile in a post-hoc analysis of the double-blind, placebo-controlled EMPA-KIDNEY trial. METHODS: The EMPA-KIDNEY trial randomized 6609 patients with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≥20<45 mL/min/1.73m2, or ≥45<90 mL/min/1.73m2 with urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥200 mg/g) to receive either empagliflozin 10 mg daily or matching placebo and followed for two years (median). Additional characteristics analysed in subgroups were multimorbidity, polypharmacy and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at baseline. Cox regression analyses were performed with subgroups defined by approximate thirds of each variable. RESULTS: The strongest predictors of hospitalization were N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide, poor mobility and diabetes; then eGFR and other comorbidities. Empagliflozin was generally well-tolerated independent of predicted risk of hospitalization. In relative terms, allocation to empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death by 28% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.82); and all-cause hospitalization by 14% (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95); with broadly consistent effects across subgroups of predicted risk of hospitalization, multimorbidity, polypharmacy or HRQoL. In absolute terms, the estimated benefits of empagliflozin were greater in those at highest predicted risk of hospitalization (reflecting frailty) and outweighed potential serious harms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the use of SGLT2 inhibitors in CKD, irrespective of frailty, multimorbidity or polypharmacy.

Effect of Fenofibrate on Progression of Diabetic Retinopathy.

BACKGROUND: Findings from cardiovascular outcome trials suggest that fenofibrate therapy may reduce the progression of diabetic retinopathy. METHODS: We recruited and followed adults with nonreferable diabetic retinopathy or maculopathy using the national Diabetic Eye Screening (DES) program in Scotland. We randomly assigned participants to receive 145-mg fenofibrate tablets or placebo (taken daily or, in those with impaired renal function, on alternate days). The primary outcome was a composite of developing referable diabetic retinopathy or maculopathy (based on Scotland's DES grading scheme) or treatment (intravitreal injection, retinal laser, vitrectomy) for retinopathy or maculopathy. RESULTS: A total of 1151 participants were randomly assigned to treatment. During a median of 4.0 years, progression to referable diabetic retinopathy or maculopathy, or treatment thereof, occurred in 131 (22.7%) of 576 participants in the fenofibrate group and 168 (29.2%) of 575 in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58 to 0.91; P=0.006). In the fenofibrate group compared with the placebo group, the frequencies for any progression of retinopathy or maculopathy were 185 (32.1%) vs. 231 (40.2%); hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.90 and for the development of macular edema were 22 (3.8%) vs. 43 (7.5%); hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.84. Seventeen (3.0%) participants assigned fenofibrate and 28 (4.9%) assigned placebo were given treatment for retinopathy (hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.31 to 1.06). There was no effect on visual function, quality of life, or visual acuity. Trial-averaged estimated glomerular filtration rate was 7.9 (95% CI, 6.8 to 9.1) ml/min/1.73 m2 lower in participants in the fenofibrate group compared with the placebo group. Serious adverse events occurred in 208 (36.1%) participants allocated fenofibrate and 204 (35.5%) participants allocated placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Fenofibrate reduced progression of diabetic retinopathy compared with placebo among participants with early retinal changes. (Funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03439345; ISRCTN number, ISRCTN15073006.).

Characterising the contribution of rare protein-coding germline variants to prostate cancer risk and severity in 37,184 cases.

The etiology of prostate cancer, the second most common cancer in men globally, has a strong heritable component. While rare coding germline variants in several genes have been identified as risk factors from candidate gene and linkage studies, the exome-wide spectrum of causal rare variants remains to be fully explored. To more comprehensively address their contribution, we analysed data from 37,184 prostate cancer cases and 331,329 male controls from five cohorts with germline exome/genome sequencing and one cohort with imputed array data from a population enriched in low-frequency deleterious variants. Our gene-level collapsing analysis revealed that rare damaging variants in SAMHD1 as well as genes in the DNA damage response pathway (BRCA2, ATM and CHEK2) are associated with the risk of overall prostate cancer. We also found that rare damaging variants in AOX1 and BRCA2 were associated with increased severity of prostate cancer in a case-only analysis of aggressive versus non-aggressive prostate cancer. At the single-variant level, we found rare non-synonymous variants in three genes (HOXB13, CHEK2, BIK) significantly associated with increased risk of overall prostate cancer and in four genes (ANO7, SPDL1, AR, TERT) with decreased risk. Altogether, this study provides deeper insights into the genetic architecture and biological basis of prostate cancer risk and severity.

A deep catalogue of protein-coding variation in 983,578 individuals.

Rare coding variants that substantially affect function provide insights into the biology of a gene1-3. However, ascertaining the frequency of such variants requires large sample sizes4-8. Here we present a catalogue of human protein-coding variation, derived from exome sequencing of 983,578 individuals across diverse populations. In total, 23% of the Regeneron Genetics Center Million Exome (RGC-ME) data come from individuals of African, East Asian, Indigenous American, Middle Eastern and South Asian ancestry. The catalogue includes more than 10.4 million missense and 1.1 million predicted loss-of-function (pLOF) variants. We identify individuals with rare biallelic pLOF variants in 4,848 genes, 1,751 of which have not been previously reported. From precise quantitative estimates of selection against heterozygous loss of function (LOF), we identify 3,988 LOF-intolerant genes, including 86 that were previously assessed as tolerant and 1,153 that lack established disease annotation. We also define regions of missense depletion at high resolution. Notably, 1,482 genes have regions that are depleted of missense variants despite being tolerant of pLOF variants. Finally, we estimate that 3% of individuals have a clinically actionable genetic variant, and that 11,773 variants reported in ClinVar with unknown significance are likely to be deleterious cryptic splice sites. To facilitate variant interpretation and genetics-informed precision medicine, we make this resource of coding variation from the RGC-ME dataset publicly accessible through a variant allele frequency browser.

Prediabetes as a risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective analysis of 115,919 adults without diabetes in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Prediabetes has been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. However, no large-scale studies have been conducted in Mexico or Latin America examining these associations. METHODS: We analyzed data from 115,919 adults without diabetes (diagnosed or undiagnosed) aged 35-84 years who participated in the Mexico City Prospective Study between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed until January 1st, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. We defined prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA, HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4%) and the International Expert Committee (IEC, HbA1c 6.0-6.4%) definitions. Cox regression adjusted for confounders was used to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate ratios (RR) at ages 35-74 years associated with prediabetes. FINDINGS: During 2,085,392 person-years of follow-up (median in survivors 19 years), there were 6,810 deaths at ages 35-74, including 1,742 from cardiovascular disease, 892 from renal disease and 108 from acute diabetic crises. Of 110,405 participants aged 35-74 years at recruitment, 28,852 (26%) had ADA-defined prediabetes and 7,203 (7%) had IEC-defined prediabetes. Compared with those without prediabetes, individuals with prediabetes had higher risk of all-cause mortality at ages 35-74 years (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19 for ADA-defined prediabetes and RR 1.28, 1.18-1.39 for IEC-defined prediabetes), as well as increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (RR 1.22 [1.10-1.35] and 1.42 [1.22-1.65], respectively), renal mortality (RR 1.35 [1.08-1.68] and 1.69 [1.24-2.31], respectively), and death from an acute diabetic crisis (RR 2.63 [1.76-3.94] and 3.43 [2.09-5.62], respectively). RRs were larger at younger than at older ages, and similar for men compared to women. The absolute excess risk associated with ADA and IEC-defined prediabetes at ages 35-74 accounted for6% and 3% of cardiovascular deaths respectively, 10% and 5% of renal deaths respectively, and 31% and 14% of acute diabetic deaths respectively. INTERPRETATION: Prediabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic deaths in Mexican adults. Identification and timely management of individuals with prediabetes for targeted risk reduction could contribute to reducing premature mortality from cardiometabolic causes in this population. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council. Instituto Nacional de Geriatría (Mexico City).

Protein-truncating variants in BSN are associated with severe adult-onset obesity, type 2 diabetes and fatty liver disease.

Obesity is a major risk factor for many common diseases and has a substantial heritable component. To identify new genetic determinants, we performed exome-sequence analyses for adult body mass index (BMI) in up to 587,027 individuals. We identified rare loss-of-function variants in two genes (BSN and APBA1) with effects substantially larger than those of well-established obesity genes such as MC4R. In contrast to most other obesity-related genes, rare variants in BSN and APBA1 were not associated with normal variation in childhood adiposity. Furthermore, BSN protein-truncating variants (PTVs) magnified the influence of common genetic variants associated with BMI, with a common variant polygenic score exhibiting an effect twice as large in BSN PTV carriers than in noncarriers. Finally, we explored the plasma proteomic signatures of BSN PTV carriers as well as the functional consequences of BSN deletion in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived hypothalamic neurons. Collectively, our findings implicate degenerative processes in synaptic function in the etiology of adult-onset obesity.

Lifetime effects and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher-intensity statin therapy across population categories in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study.

Background: Cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality have declined across developed economies and granular up-to-date cost-effectiveness evidence is required for treatments targeting large populations. To assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher intensity statin therapy in the contemporary UK population 40-70 years old. Methods: A cardiovascular disease microsimulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (117,896 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (501,854 participants; 9 years follow-up), projected risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death for all UK Biobank participants without and with statin treatment. Meta-analyses of trials and cohort studies informed statins' relative effects on cardiovascular events, incident diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis. UK healthcare perspective was taken (2020/2021 UK£) with costs per 28 tablets of £1.10 for standard (35%-45% LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction) and £1.68 for higher intensity (≥45% LDL-C reduction) generic statin. Findings: Across categories by sex, age, LDL-C, and cardiovascular disease history/10-year cardiovascular risk, lifetime standard statin increased survival by 0.28-1.85 years (0.20-1.09 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), and higher intensity statin by further 0.06-0.40 years (0.03-0.20 QALYs) per person. Standard statin was cost-effective across all categories with incremental cost per QALY from £280 to £8530, with higher intensity statin cost-effective at higher cardiovascular risks and higher LDL-C levels. Stopping statin early reduced benefits and was not cost-effective. Interpretation: Lifetime low-cost statin therapy is cost-effective across all 40-70 years old in UK. Strengthening and widening statin treatment could cost-effectively improve population health. Funding: UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme (17/140/02).

Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial.

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome.

Effects of Empagliflozin on Fluid Overload, Weight, and Blood Pressure in CKD.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: SGLT2 inhibitors reduce risk of kidney progression, AKI, and cardiovascular disease, but the mechanisms of benefit are incompletely understood. Bioimpedance spectroscopy can estimate body water and fat mass. One quarter of the EMPA-KIDNEY bioimpedance substudy CKD population had clinically significant levels of bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" at recruitment. Empagliflozin induced a prompt and sustained reduction in "Fluid Overload," irrespective of sex, diabetes, and baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or eGFR. No significant effect on bioimpedance-derived fat mass was observed. The effects of SGLT2 inhibitors on body water may be one of the contributing mechanisms by which they mediate effects on cardiovascular risk. BACKGROUND: CKD is associated with fluid excess that can be estimated by bioimpedance spectroscopy. We aimed to assess effects of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibition on bioimpedance-derived "Fluid Overload" and adiposity in a CKD population. METHODS: EMPA-KIDNEY was a double-blind placebo-controlled trial of empagliflozin 10 mg once daily in patients with CKD at risk of progression. In a substudy, bioimpedance measurements were added to the main trial procedures at randomization and at 2- and 18-month follow-up visits. The substudy's primary outcome was the study-average difference in absolute "Fluid Overload" (an estimate of excess extracellular water) analyzed using a mixed model repeated measures approach. RESULTS: The 660 substudy participants were broadly representative of the 6609-participant trial population. Substudy mean baseline absolute "Fluid Overload" was 0.4±1.7 L. Compared with placebo, the overall mean absolute "Fluid Overload" difference among those allocated empagliflozin was -0.24 L (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.38 to -0.11), with similar sized differences at 2 and 18 months, and in prespecified subgroups. Total body water differences comprised between-group differences in extracellular water of -0.49 L (95% CI, -0.69 to -0.30, including the -0.24 L "Fluid Overload" difference) and a -0.30 L (95% CI, -0.57 to -0.03) difference in intracellular water. There was no significant effect of empagliflozin on bioimpedance-derived adipose tissue mass (-0.28 kg [95% CI, -1.41 to 0.85]). The between-group difference in weight was -0.7 kg (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In a broad range of patients with CKD, empagliflozin resulted in a sustained reduction in a bioimpedance-derived estimate of fluid overload, with no statistically significant effect on fat mass. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03594110 ; EuDRACT: 2017-002971-24 ( https://eudract.ema.europa.eu/ ).

Independent relevance of adiposity measures to coronary heart disease risk among 0.5 million adults in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on body fat distribution shows opposing effects of waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) for coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to investigate the causality and the shape of such associations. METHODS: UK Biobank is a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million adults aged 40-69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of measured and genetically predicted body mass index (BMI), WC, HC and waist-to-hip ratio with incident CHD were obtained from Cox models. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to assess causality. The analysis included 456 495 participants (26 225 first-ever CHD events) without prior CHD. RESULTS: All measures of adiposity demonstrated strong, positive and approximately log-linear associations with CHD risk over a median follow-up of 12.7 years. For HC, however, the association became inverse given the BMI and WC (HR per usual SD 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97). Associations for BMI and WC remained independently positive after adjustment for other adiposity measures and were similar (1.14, 1.13-1.16 and 1.18, 1.15-1.20, respectively), with WC displaying stronger associations among women. Blood pressure, plasma lipids and dysglycaemia accounted for much of the observed excess risk. MR results were generally consistent with the observational, implying causality. CONCLUSIONS: Body fat distribution measures displayed similar associations with CHD risk as BMI except for HC, which was inversely associated with CHD risk (given WC and BMI). These findings suggest that different measures of body fat distribution likely influence CHD risk through both overlapping and independent mechanisms.

Genotyping, sequencing and analysis of 140,000 adults from Mexico City.

The Mexico City Prospective Study is a prospective cohort of more than 150,000 adults recruited two decades ago from the urban districts of Coyoacán and Iztapalapa in Mexico City1. Here we generated genotype and exome-sequencing data for all individuals and whole-genome sequencing data for 9,950 selected individuals. We describe high levels of relatedness and substantial heterogeneity in ancestry composition across individuals. Most sequenced individuals had admixed Indigenous American, European and African ancestry, with extensive admixture from Indigenous populations in central, southern and southeastern Mexico. Indigenous Mexican segments of the genome had lower levels of coding variation but an excess of homozygous loss-of-function variants compared with segments of African and European origin. We estimated ancestry-specific allele frequencies at 142 million genomic variants, with an effective sample size of 91,856 for Indigenous Mexican ancestry at exome variants, all available through a public browser. Using whole-genome sequencing, we developed an imputation reference panel that outperforms existing panels at common variants in individuals with high proportions of central, southern and southeastern Indigenous Mexican ancestry. Our work illustrates the value of genetic studies in diverse populations and provides foundational imputation and allele frequency resources for future genetic studies in Mexico and in the United States, where the Hispanic/Latino population is predominantly of Mexican descent.

2022 Joint ESC/EACTS review of the 2018 guideline recommendations on the revascularization of left main coronary artery disease in patients at low surgical risk and anatomy suitable for PCI or CABG.

In October 2021, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) jointly agreed to establish a Task Force (TF) to review recommendations of the 2018 ESC/EACTS Guidelines on myocardial revascularization as they apply to patients with left main (LM) disease with low-to-intermediate SYNTAX score (0-32). This followed the withdrawal of support by the EACTS in 2019 for the recommendations about the management of LM disease of the previous guideline. The TF was asked to review all new relevant data since the 2018 guidelines including updated aggregated data from the four randomized trials comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents vs. coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with LM disease. This document represents a summary of the work of the TF; suggested updated recommendations for the choice of revascularization modality in patients undergoing myocardial revascularization for LM disease are included. In stable patients with an indication for revascularization for LM disease, with coronary anatomy suitable for both procedures and a low predicted surgical mortality, the TF concludes that both treatment options are clinically reasonable based on patient preference, available expertise, and local operator volumes. The suggested recommendations for revascularization with CABG are Class I, Level of Evidence A. The recommendations for PCI are Class IIa, Level of Evidence A. The TF recognized several important gaps in knowledge related to revascularization in patients with LM disease and recognizes that aggregated data from the four randomized trials were still only large enough to exclude large differences in mortality.

2022 Joint ESC/EACTS review of the 2018 guideline recommendations on the revascularization of left main coronary artery disease in patients at low surgical risk and anatomy suitable for PCI or CABG.

Task Force structure and summary of clinical evidence of 2022 ESC/EACTS review of the 2018 guideline recommendations on the revascularization of left main coronary artery disease. CABG, coronary artery bypass grafting; PCI, percutaneous coronary intervention; LM, left main; SYNTAX, Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery. a'Event' refers to the composite of death, myocardial infarction (according to Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction if available, otherwise protocol defined) or stroke. In October 2021, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) jointly agreed to establish a Task Force (TF) to review recommendations of the 2018 ESC/EACTS Guidelines on myocardial revascularization as they apply to patients with left main (LM) disease with low-to-intermediate SYNTAX score (0-32). This followed the withdrawal of support by the EACTS in 2019 for the recommendations about the management of LM disease of the previous guideline. The TF was asked to review all new relevant data since the 2018 guidelines including updated aggregated data from the four randomized trials comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents vs. coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with LM disease. This document represents a summary of the work of the TF; suggested updated recommendations for the choice of revascularization modality in patients undergoing myocardial revascularization for LM disease are included. In stable patients with an indication for revascularization for LM disease, with coronary anatomy suitable for both procedures and a low predicted surgical mortality, the TF concludes that both treatment options are clinically reasonable based on patient preference, available expertise, and local operator volumes. The suggested recommendations for revascularization with CABG are Class I, Level of Evidence A. The recommendations for PCI are Class IIa, Level of Evidence A. The TF recognized several important gaps in knowledge related to revascularization in patients with LM disease and recognizes that aggregated data from the four randomized trials were still only large enough to exclude large differences in mortality.

Impact of outcome adjudication in kidney disease trials: observations from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP).

Introduction: We aimed to assess opportunities for trial streamlining and the scientific impact of adjudication on kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in CKD. Methods: We analysed the effects of adjudication of ~2100 maintenance kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and ~1300 major atherosclerotic events (MAEs) recorded in SHARP. We first compared outcome classification before versus after adjudication, and then re-ran randomised comparisons using pre-adjudicated follow-up data. Results: For maintenance KRT, adjudication had little impact with only 1% of events being refuted (28/2115). Consequently, randomised comparisons using pre-adjudication reports found almost identical results (pre-adjudication: simvastatin/ezetimibe 1038 vs placebo 1077; risk ratio [RR] 0.95, 95%CI 0.88-1.04; post-adjudicated: 1057 vs 1084; RR=0.97, 95%CI 0.89-1.05). For MAEs, about one-quarter of patient reports were refuted (324/1275 [25%]), and reviewing 3538 other potential vascular events and death reports identified only 194 additional MAEs. Nevertheless, randomised analyses using SHARP's pre-adjudicated data alone found similar results to analyses based on adjudicated outcomes (pre-adjudication: 573 vs 702; RR=0.80, 95%CI 0.72-0.89; adjudicated: 526 vs 619; RR=0.83, 95%CI 0.74- 0.94), and also suggested refuted MAEs were likely to represent atherosclerotic disease (RR for refuted MAEs=0.80, 95%CI 0.65-1.00). Conclusions: These analyses provide three key insights. First, they provide a rationale for nephrology trials not to adjudicate maintenance KRT. Secondly, when an event that mimics an atherosclerotic outcome is not expected to be influenced by the treatment under study (e.g. heart failure), the aim of adjudicating atherosclerotic outcomes should be to remove such events. Lastly, restrictive definitions for the remaining suspected atherosclerotic outcomes may reduce statistical power.