Effectiveness of antenatal care services in reducing neonatal mortality in Kenya: analysis of national survey data.

BACKGROUND: Although global neonatal mortality declined by about 40 percent from 1990 to 2013, it still accounted for about 2.6 million deaths globally and constituted 42 percent of global under-five deaths. Most of these deaths occur in developing countries. Antenatal care (ANC) is a globally recommended strategy used to prevent neonatal deaths. In Kenya, over 90 percent of pregnant women attend at least one ANC visit during pregnancy. However, Kenya is currently among the 10 countries that contribute the most neonatal deaths globally. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to examine the effectiveness of ANC services in reducing neonatal mortality in Kenya. METHODS: We used binary logistic regression to analyse cross-sectional data from the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey to investigate the effectiveness of ANC services in reducing neonatal mortality in Kenya. We determined the population attributable neonatal mortality fraction for the lack of selected antenatal interventions. RESULTS: The highest odds of neonatal mortality were among neonates whose mothers did not attend any ANC visit (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-9.1) and whose mothers lacked skilled ANC attendance during pregnancy (aOR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4-6.1). Lack of tetanus injection relative to one tetanus injection was significantly associated with neonatal mortality (aOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.0-6.0). About 38 percent of all neonatal deaths in Kenya were attributable to lack of check-ups for pregnancy complications. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of check-ups for pregnancy complications, unskilled ANC provision and lack of tetanus injection were associated with neonatal mortality in Kenya. Integrating community ANC outreach programmes in the national policy strategy and training geared towards early detection of complications can have positive implications for neonatal survival.

Sexual risk-taking during travel abroad - a cross-sectional survey among youth in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: The aim was to assess sexual risk-taking behaviour in a sample of Swedish youth who were sexually active while travelling abroad and to examine possible associations with sexual risk-taking behaviour during such travel. METHODS: From a population-based sample of 2189 Swedes 18-29 years, 768 who were sexually active while abroad, were assessed by a questionnaire concerning socio-demographic background, life-style, travel duration, sexuality, mental health, heavy episodic drinking (HED) and drug-use. RESULTS: Approximately 1/4 reported intercourse with a casual partner abroad. Casual sex was associated with HED, 18-24 years, and drug use in both sexes, and for women, also with ≥one month of travel. Among youth with casual partners, 48% reported non-condom use. Non-condom use with a casual partner was associated with 18-24 years, ≥one month of travel for women, and poor self-rated mental health for men. About 10% had ≥2 partners abroad. Having ≥2 partners abroad was associated with ≥one month of travel, and for men also with HED. CONCLUSION: Male sex, 18-24 years of age, ≥1 month of travel, HED, and drug use were significantly associated with sexual risk-taking during travel abroad. Poor self-rated mental health and foreign-born parentage might also constitute risk factors for men.

Biomass fuel use and the risk of asthma in Nigerian children.

BACKGROUND: Biomass fuel smoke exposure contributes to respiratory infections in childhood, but its association with asthma has not been established. We studied the relationship of biomass fuel use with asthma symptoms and lung function in Nigerian children. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed in 299 village children aged 5-11 years in North Central Nigeria. Data were collected regarding the cooking fuels used and duration of daily smoke exposure in the cooking area. Asthma symptoms were assessed with a modified International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire, and lung function was assessed with spirometry. RESULTS: The prevalence of a lifetime history of wheeze was 9.4% (95% CI: 6.3%-13.2%). Fourteen children (4.7%) had airway obstruction (FEV1/FEV6 <85%). Female subjects had lower FEV1 and FEV6 (110 % and 120% percent predicted, respectively) than males (121% and 130%, respectively, P <0.001 for both differences). Advancing age was associated with a relative decline in the predicted value of FEV1 of 7.8 % per year (r = -0.61; P < 0.001). Children in families that used firewood daily did not have a significantly increased likelihood of asthma-related symptoms (OR = 2.36, 95% CI: 0.66-8.44). Similarly, airway obstruction did not differ significantly between children in households that did and did not use firewood daily (mean FEV1/FEV6 of 0.95 and 0.97, respectively; P = 0.41). CONCLUSION: Reported smoke exposure was not associated with an increased risk of asthma symptoms or airway obstruction. However, lifetime smoke exposure may explain the reduction in spirometric values in female subjects and with advancing age.

Spatio-temporal clustering of mortality in Butajira HDSS, Ethiopia, from 1987 to 2008.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in a population may be clustered in space and time for a variety of reasons, including geography, socio-economics, environment and demographics. Analysing mortality clusters can therefore reveal important insights into patterns and risks of mortality in a particular setting. OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: To investigate the extent of spatio-temporal clustering of mortality in the Butajira District, Ethiopia, from 1987 to 2008. The Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) dataset recorded 10,696 deaths among 951,842 person-years of observation, with each death located by household, in which population time at risk was also recorded. The surveyed population increased from 28,614 in 1987 to 62,322 in 2008, in an area approximately 25 km in diameter. Spatio-temporal clustering analyses were conducted for overall mortality and by specific age groups, grouping the population into a 0.01° latitude-longitude grid. RESULTS: A number of significantly high- and low-mortality clusters were identified at various times and places. Butajira town was characterised by significantly low mortality throughout the period. A previously documented major mortality crisis in 1998-1999, largely resulting from malaria and diarrhoea, dominated the clustering analysis. Other local high-mortality clusters, appreciably attributable to meningitis, malaria and diarrhoea, occurred in the earlier part of the period. In the later years, a more homogeneous distribution of mortality at lower rates was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality was by no means randomly distributed in this community during the period of observation. The clustering analyses revealed a clear epidemiological transition, away from localised infectious epidemics, over a generation.

Magnitude and variation of traffic air pollution as measured by CO in the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background: Air pollution level in Addis Ababa is presumed to be high due to the prevalence of old vehicles and substandard road infrastructures. This study assessed CO concentration as a measure of traffic air pollution. Materials and methods: a total of 80 road side and 24 on-road daily traffic air samples during wet and dry seasons of 2007 and 2008; respectively; were taken using CO data logger. A structured checklist was used to document related data. Downloaded data from the CO sampler was used to generate summary statistics and data presentations. Data quality of CO measurement was ensured using calibration checks. Results: The mean for 15 minutes CO concentration was 2.1 ppm (GM=1.3) and 2.8 ppm (GM=2.2) for wet and dry seasons; respectively. The concentrations from season to season varied statistically. The CO temporal and spatial profiles among the two seasons were similar. The overall mean on-road CO concentration was 5.4 ppm (GM=5.3). Fifteen percent of roadside samples and all on-road samples exhibited more than 50of the 8-hr CO WHO guideline.. Daily CO maxima were observed in early mornings and late afternoons. Conclusions: The consistency in spatial and temporal profiles and the variation on both on-road and road side traffic lines imply that vehicles are the main source of traffic air pollution. There is a concern that the CO 8-hr World Health Organization guideline might be exceeded in future. [Ethiop. J. Health Dev. 2010;24(3):156-166]

Sources of variation for indoor nitrogen dioxide in rural residences of Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Unprocessed biomass fuel is the primary source of indoor air pollution (IAP) in developing countries. The use of biomass fuel has been linked with acute respiratory infections. This study assesses sources of variations associated with the level of indoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study examines household factors affecting the level of indoor pollution by measuring NO2. Repeated measurements of NO2 were made using a passive diffusive sampler. A Saltzman colorimetric method using a spectrometer calibrated at 540 nm was employed to analyze the mass of NO2 on the collection filter that was then subjected to a mass transfer equation to calculate the level of NO2 for the 24 hours of sampling duration. Structured questionnaire was used to collect data on fuel use characteristics. Data entry and cleaning was done in EPI INFO version 6.04, while data was analyzed using SPSS version 15.0. Analysis of variance, multiple linear regression and linear mixed model were used to isolate determining factors contributing to the variation of NO2 concentration. RESULTS: A total of 17,215 air samples were fully analyzed during the study period. Wood and crop were principal source of household energy. Biomass fuel characteristics were strongly related to indoor NO2 concentration in one-way analysis of variance. There was variation in repeated measurements of indoor NO2 over time. In a linear mixed model regression analysis, highland setting, wet season, cooking, use of fire events at least twice a day, frequency of cooked food items, and interaction between ecology and season were predictors of indoor NO2 concentration. The volume of the housing unit and the presence of kitchen showed little relevance in the level of NO2 concentration. CONCLUSION: Agro-ecology, season, purpose of fire events, frequency of fire activities, frequency of cooking and physical conditions of housing are predictors of NO2 concentration. Improved kitchen conditions and ventilation are highly recommended.

From birth to adulthood in rural Ethiopia: the Butajira Birth Cohort of 1987.

Long-term birth cohorts from developing countries are uncommon. Here a unique birth to 18-years cohort based on all births during 1987 in a rural area of Ethiopia is presented. This was the first year of the ongoing Butajira Rural Health Programme, since when the sampled population has been followed up in regular household visits. A total of 1884 livebirths in 1987 formed the cohort, corresponding to a birth rate of 0.31 per woman per year; the male : female ratio was 1.10. Perinatal mortality was 22 per 1000 livebirths, and infant mortality 65 per 1000 livebirths. Survival from birth to 18 years was 760 per 1000. Living in Butajira town had a considerable survival advantage compared with the surrounding villages. Most deaths were due to infections. Four per cent of the cohort experienced the death of their mothers before the age of 18 years, and 15 of the girls delivered their own children, suggesting that 1 in 25 women may bear a child before their eighteenth birthday in this community. The children in the cohort received no consequent special care or attention, and so they probably accurately represent the harsh realities of growing up in rural Ethiopia at the turn of the Millennium. The huge gaps between their experience and that of their contemporaries in more affluent settings are a scandal of the 21st century.

People's willingness to pay for health insurance in rural Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: The inequity caused by health financing in Vietnam, which mainly relies on out-of-pocket payments, has put pre-payment reform high on the political agenda. This paper reports on a study of the willingness to pay for health insurance among a rural population in northern Vietnam, exploring whether the Vietnamese are willing to pay enough to sufficiently finance a health insurance system. METHODS: Using the Epidemiological Field Laboratory for Health Systems Research in the Bavi district (FilaBavi), 2070 households were randomly selected for the study. Existing FilaBavi interviewers were trained especially for this study. The interview questionnaire was developed through a pilot study followed by focus group discussions among interviewers. Determinants of households' willingness to pay were studied through interval regression by which problems such as zero answers, skewness, outliers and the heaping effect may be solved. RESULTS: Households' average willingness to pay (WTP) is higher than their costs for public health care and self-treatment. For 70-80% of the respondents, average WTP is also sufficient to pay the lower range of premiums in existing health insurance programmes. However, the average WTP would only be sufficient to finance about half of total household public, as well as private, health care costs. Variables that reflect income, health care need, age and educational level were significant determinants of households' willingness to pay. Contrary to expectations, age was negatively related to willingness to pay. CONCLUSION: Since WTP is sufficient to cover household costs for public health care, it depends to what extent households would substitute private for public care and increase utilization as to whether WTP would also be sufficient enough to finance health insurance. This study highlights potential for public information schemes that may change the negative attitude towards health insurance, which this study has uncovered. A key task for policy makers is to win the trust of the population in relation to a health insurance system, particularly among the old and those with relatively low education.

A rural Ethiopian population undergoing epidemiological transition over a generation: Butajira from 1987 to 2004.

AIMS: To describe the epidemiological development of a rural Ethiopian population from 1987 to 2004 in terms of mortality and associated sociodemographic factors. METHODS: A rural population comprising 10 communities was defined in 1987 and has since been followed by means of regular household visits. After an initial census, births, deaths and migration events were recorded, together with key background factors, on an open cohort basis. Over 97,000 individuals were observed during a total of over 700,000 person years. RESULTS: The initial population of 28,614 increased by an average of 3.64% annually to 54,426 from 1987 to 2004, and also grew older on average. Birth and mortality rates fell, but were still subject to short-term variation due to external factors. Overall mortality was 13.5 per 1000 person years. Increasing mortality in some adult age groups was consistent with increasing AIDS-related deaths, but a new local hospital in 2002 may have contributed to later falls in overall mortality. Sex, age group, time period, literacy, water source, house ownership and distance to town were all significantly associated with mortality differentials. CONCLUSIONS: This population has undergone a complex epidemiological transition during a generation. Detailed long-term surveillance of this kind is essential for describing such processes. Many factors that significantly affect mortality cannot be directly controlled by the health sector and will only improve with general development.

Vulnerability to episodes of extreme weather: Butajira, Ethiopia, 1998-1999.

BACKGROUND: During 1999-2000, great parts of Ethiopia experienced a period of famine which was recognised internationally. The aim of this paper is to characterise the epidemiology of mortality of the period, making use of individual, longitudinal population-based data from the Butajira demographic surveillance site and rainfall data from a local site. METHODS: Vital statistics and household data were routinely collected in a cluster sample of 10 sub-communities in the Butajira district in central Ethiopia. These were supplemented by rainfall and agricultural data from the national reporting systems. RESULTS: Rainfall was high in 1998 and well below average in 1999 and 2000. In 1998, heavy rains continued from April into October, in 1999 the small rains failed and the big rains lasted into the harvesting period. For the years 1998-1999, the mortality rate was 24.5 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 10.2 in the remainder of the period 1997-2001. Mortality peaks reflect epidemics of malaria and diarrhoeal disease. During these peaks, mortality was significantly higher among the poorer. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses reveal a serious humanitarian crisis with the Butajira population during 1998-1999, which met the CDC guideline crisis definition of more than one death per 10,000 per day. No substantial humanitarian relief efforts were triggered, though from the results it seems likely that the poorest in the farming communities are as vulnerable as the pastoralists in the North and East of Ethiopia. Food insecurity and reliance on subsistence agriculture continue to be major issues in this and similar rural communities. Epidemics of traditional infectious diseases can still be devastating, given opportunities in nutritionally challenged populations with little access to health care.

DSS and DHS: longitudinal and cross-sectional viewpoints on child and adolescent mortality in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In countries where routine vital registration data are scarce, Demographic Surveillance Sites (DSS: locally defined populations under longitudinal surveillance for vital events and other characteristics) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS: periodic national cluster samples responding to cross-sectional surveys) have become standard approaches for gathering at least some data. This paper aims to compare DSS and DHS approaches, seeing how they complement each other in the specific instance of child and adolescent mortality in Ethiopia. METHODS: Data from the Butajira DSS 1987-2004 and the Ethiopia DHS rounds for 2000 and 2005 formed the basis of comparative analyses of mortality rates among those aged under 20 years, using Poisson regression models for adjusted rate ratios. RESULTS: Patterns of mortality over time were broadly comparable using DSS and DHS approaches. DSS data were more susceptible to local epidemic variations, while DHS data tended to smooth out local variation, and be more subject to recall bias. CONCLUSION: Both DSS and DHS approaches to mortality surveillance gave similar overall results, but both showed method-dependent advantages and disadvantages. In many settings, this kind of joint-source data analysis could offer significant added value to results.

Indoor air pollution: a poverty-related cause of mortality among the children of the world.

This article reviews the research on the relation between indoor air pollution exposure and acute respiratory infection (ARI) in children in developing countries. ARI is a cause of death globally, causing approximately 19% of all deaths before the age of 5 years, according to a World Health Organization estimate. Indoor air pollution from biomass fuels, which is strongly poverty related, has long been regarded as an important risk factor for ARI morbidity and mortality. The empirical base for this view is comparatively narrow, with few empirical studies in relation to the magnitude of the global public health importance of the problem. Most existing reports consistently indicate that indoor air pollution is indeed a risk factor for ARI, but studies are generally small and use indirect indicators of pollution, such as use of biomass fuel or type of stove. Exposure assessment for indoor air pollution in developing countries is recognized as a major obstacle because of high cost and infrastructural limitations to chemical pollution sampling. Use of proxy indicators without measurement support may increase the risk of both misclassification of exposure and of confounding by other poverty-related factors. The issue of sufficient sample size further underlines the need for decisions to invest in this research field. Areas where further research is needed also include exploring qualitatively options for interventions that are culturally and economically acceptable to local communities.

Does "the injury poverty trap" exist? A longitudinal study in Bavi, Vietnam.

In this study we concentrate on injuries and affected households' capacities to earn incomes. A longitudinal study was performed in Bavi district, Vietnam, with the specific objectives to investigate: (1) the affects of injuries on incomes by comparing income changes in injured and non-injured individuals; (2) the affect of injuries on social mobility by estimating households' relative risk of dropping into poverty for households with and without injuries and estimating the relative risk of escaping from poverty for households without and with injuries. The propensity score matching method using a logit model was used for data analysis. The results show that on average, the loss per household is estimated at VND 1,084,000 (USD 72) for poor and VND 2,598,000 (USD 173) for non-poor, equivalent to 11 (9) and 15 (13) working months of an average person in the poor and non-poor group, respectively, during 1999 (2001). The relative risk of dropping into poverty for non-poor households with and without injuries equal to 1.21 (p=0.08) and the relative risk of escaping from poverty between poor households without and with injuries equal to 0.96 (p=0.39). In conclusion, it has been argued that the introduction of user fees created a poverty trap and thus their removal may be a solution. However, user fees are only a part of the burden on households. Loss of income during the illness period is likely to be a problem of the same magnitude. A successful solution must thus follow two tracks: prepayment of health care and some insurance based compensation of income losses during the illness period. Both reforms, if they are persistent, must be done within the resource limits of the local society. If the risk of catastrophic illness is more evenly spread across the society, it would increase the general welfare even if no more resources are provided.

Patterns of local migration and their consequences in a rural Ethiopian population.

AIMS: In the context of the Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) in Ethiopia, which has maintained demographic surveillance in selected communities since 1987, this paper investigates patterns of migration and their consequences within that population over a ten year period 1987-1996. METHODS & RESULTS: Based on observations of over 336,000 person-years in nine rural villages and one small town, 48% of individuals migrated in or out of the study area at some stage, as recorded in monthly household visits. There was a net incidence of migration into the urban area, particularly among young adults. Mortality was higher among residents compared with in-migrants, with rates of 10.5 (95% CI 7.5 to 14.9) and 8.2 (95% CI 5.8 to 11.7) per 1,000 person-years respectively after adjustment for age, sex and area of residence, a rate ratio of 1.3. Fertility among in-migrant and resident women was similar, at rates of 0.26 and 0.28 births per reproductive year respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The causes of the observed differences in mortality are not clear, though they may be partly due to self-selection effects among migrants, and may have important implications for future health policy and planning in Ethiopia and other similar settings.