The Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score: a predictor of mortality following peptic ulcer perforation. A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and early identification of high-risk surgical patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is important for triage and risk stratification. The objective of the present study was to develop a new and improved clinical rule to predict mortality in patients following surgical treatment for PPU. DESIGN: nationwide cohort study based on prospectively collected data. SETTING: thirty-five hospitals in Denmark. PATIENTS: a total of 2668 patients surgically treated for gastric or duodenal PPU between 1 February 2003 and 31 August 2009. OUTCOME MEASURE: 30-day mortality. RESULTS: We derived a new clinical prediction rule for 30-day mortality and evaluated and compared its prognostic performance with the American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) and Boey scores. A total of 708 patients (27%) died within 30 days of surgery. The Peptic Ulcer Perforation (PULP) score - comprised eight variables with an adjusted odds ratio of more than 1.28: 1) age > 65 years, 2) active malignant disease or AIDS, 3) liver cirrhosis, 4) steroid use, 5) time from perforation to admission > 24 h, 6) pre-operative shock, 7) serum creatinine > 130 µM, and 8) the four levels of the ASA score (from 2 to 5). The score predicted mortality well (area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) 0.83). It performed considerably better than the Boey score (AUC 0.70) and better than the ASA score alone (AUC 0.78). CONCLUSION: The PULP score accurately predicts 30-day mortality in patients operated for PPU and can assist in risk stratification and triage.

Changes in blood culture methodology have an impact on time trends of bacteraemia: a 26-year regional study.

The incidence of bacteraemia has increased considerably during the last decades. This may be related to population ageing, increased use of invasive procedures, and increased ascertainment of bacteraemia. Generalized additive and generalized linear models were used to analyse the impact of four successive improvements in blood culture methodology on the recovery of prevalent blood culture isolates while simultaneously controlling for underlying time trend and seasonal variation. Between 1981 and 2006, 20 091 bacteraemias comprising 22 800 blood culture isolates were diagnosed. The changes in methodology increased the recovery of some bacterial groups; the greatest impact was observed for Enterobacteriaceae, pneumococci and Staphylococcus aureus whereas recovery of ß-haemolytic streptococci, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, other Gram-negative aerobes, and fungi was not affected. Changes in blood culture methodology should be taken into account when assessing time trends of bacteraemia.

Use of oral glucocorticoids and risk of skin cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: a population-based case-control study.

In North Jutland County, Denmark, we investigated whether use of oral glucocorticoids was associated with an increased risk of developing basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), malignant melanoma (MM), and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). From the Danish Cancer Registry we identified 5422 BCC, 935 SCC, 983 MM, and 481 NHL cases during 1989-2003. Using risk-set sampling we selected four age- and gender-matched population controls for each case from the Civil Registration System. Prescriptions for oral glucocorticoids before diagnosis were obtained from the Prescription Database of North Jutland County on the basis of National Health Service data. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), adjusting for chronic medical diseases (information about these were obtained from the National Patient Registry) and use of other immunosuppressants. We found slightly elevated risk estimates for BCC (IRR, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.07-1.25)), SCC (IRR, 1.14 (95% CI: 0.94-1.39)), MM (IRR, 1.15 (95% CI: 0.94-1.41), and NHL (IRR, 1.11 (95% CI: 0.85-1.46)) among users of oral glucocorticoids. Our study supports an overall association between glucocorticoid use and risk of BCC that cannot be explained by the presence of chronic diseases or concomitant use of other immunosuppressants.

Use of photosensitising diuretics and risk of skin cancer: a population-based case-control study.

Diuretics have photosensitising properties. However, little is known about how these diuretics affect the risk of skin cancers. In North Jutland County, Denmark, we investigated whether the use of photosensitising diuretics was associated with an increased risk for developing basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and malignant melanoma (MM). From the cancer registry, we identified primary cases of BCC, SCC and MM during the period of 1989-2003. We selected four population controls for each case from the Danish Civil Registration System, matched on age and gender. Prescriptions for photosensitising diuretics before cancer diagnosis were ascertained in the county's Prescription Database. We used conditional logistic regression to compute incidence rate ratio (IRR), controlling for the chronic medical conditions and for the previous use of oral glucocorticoids. We found an increased risk of SCC (IRR of 1.79 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45-2.21)) and MM (IRR of 1.43 (95% CI: 1.09-1.88)) among users of combined amiloride and hydrochlorothiazide therapy. An increased risk of MM (IRR of 3.30 (95% CI: 1.34-8.10)) was found among users of indapamide. We found little associations with risk of BCC. Our findings provide evidence that the use of some photosensitising diuretics is associated with an increased risk for SCC and MM.