Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change.

We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia's Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around -50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to -13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.

Modern aridity in the Altai-Sayan mountain range derived from multiple millennial proxies.

Temperature and precipitation changes are crucial for larch trees growing at high-elevation sites covered by permafrost in the Altai-Sayan mountain range (ASMR). To contextualize the amplitude of recent climate fluctuations, we have to look into the past by analyzing millennial paleoclimatic archives recording both temperature and precipitation. We developed annually resolved 1500-year tree-ring cellulose chronologies (δ13Ccell, δ18Ocell), and used these new records to reconstruct the variability in local summer precipitation and air temperature. We combined our new local reconstructions with existing paleoclimatic archives available for the Altai. The data show a strong decreasing trend by ca. 49% in regional summer precipitation, along with a regional summer temperature increase towards the twenty-first century, relative to the preceding 1500 years. Modern dry conditions (1966-2016 CE) in the ASMR are the result of simultaneous summer warming and decreased precipitation. Our new reconstructions also demonstrate that climate change in the ASMR is much stronger compared to the global average.