Anthropogenic warming is a key climate indicator of rising urban fire activity in China.

China, one of the most populous countries in the world, has suffered the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths from fire. On local scales, the main causes of urban fires are anthropogenic in nature. Yet, on regional to national scales, little is known about the indicators of large-scale co-varying urban fire activity in China. Here, we present the China Fire History Atlas (CFHA), which is based on 19 947 documentary records and represents fires in urban areas of China over the twentieth century (1901-1994). We found that temperature variability is a key indicator of urban fire activity in China, with warmer temperatures being correlated with more urban fires, and that this fire-temperature relationship is seasonally and regionally explicit. In the early twentieth century, however, the fire-temperature relationship was overruled by war-related fires in large urban areas. We further used the fire-temperature relationship and multiple emissions scenarios to project fire activity across China into the twenty-first century. Our projections show a distinct increase in future urban fire activity and fire-related economic loss. Our findings provide insights into fire-climate relationships in China for densely-populated areas and on policy-relevant time scales and they contribute spatial coverage to efforts to improve global fire models.

Contrasting water-use strategies to climate warming in white birch and larch in a boreal permafrost region.

The effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) with climate warming on intrinsic water-use efficiency and radial growth in boreal forests are still poorly understood. We measured tree-ring cellulose δ13C, δ18O, and tree-ring width in Larix dahurica (larch) and Betula platyphylla (white birch), and analyzed their relationships with climate variables in a boreal permafrost region of northeast China over past 68 years covering a pre-warming period (1951-1984; base period) and a warm period (1985-2018; warm period). We found that white birch but not larch significantly increased their radial growth over the warm period. The increased intrinsic water-use efficiency in both species was mainly driven by elevated Ca but not climate warming. White birch but not larch showed significantly positive correlations between tree-ring δ13C, δ18O and summer maximum temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit in the warm period, suggesting a strong stomatal response in the broad-leaved birch to temperature changes. The climate warming-induced radial growth enhancement in white birch is primarily associated with a conservative water-use strategy. In contrast, larch exhibits a profligate water-use strategy. It implies an advantage for white birch over larch in the warming permafrost regions.

Teleconnections between large-scale oceanic-atmospheric patterns and interannual surface wind speed variability across China: Regional and seasonal patterns.

Great attention has been paid to the long-term decline in terrestrial near-surface wind speed (SWS) in China. However, how the SWS varies with regions and seasons and what modulates these changes remain unclear. Based on quality-controlled and homogenized terrestrial SWS data from 596 stations, the covarying SWS patterns during the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) and the Asian Winter Monsoon (AWM) seasons are defined for China using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for 1961-2016. The dominant SWS features represented by EOF1 patterns in both seasons show a clear decline over most regions of China. The interannual variability of the EOF1 patterns is closely related to the Northeast Asia Low Pressure (NEALP) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively. The EOF2 and EOF3 patterns during ASM (AWM) season describe a dipole mode of SWS between East Tibetan Plateau and East China Plain (between East Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China), and between Southeast and Northeast China (between Northeast China and the coastal areas of Southeast China), respectively. These dipole structures of SWS changes are closely linked with the oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on interannual scale.

Overestimated gains in water-use efficiency by global forests.

Increases in terrestrial water-use efficiency (WUE) have been reported in many studies, pointing to potential changes in physiological forcing of global carbon and hydrological cycles. However, gains in WUE are of uncertain magnitude over longer (i.e. >10 years) periods of time largely owing to difficulties in accounting for structural and physiological acclimation. 13 C signatures (i.e. δ13 C) of plant organic matter have long been used to estimate WUE at temporal scales ranging from days to centuries. Mesophyll conductance is a key uncertainty in estimated WUE owing to its influence on diffusion of CO2 to sites of carboxylation. Here we apply new knowledge of mesophyll conductance to 464 δ13 C chronologies in tree-rings of 143 species spanning global biomes. Adjusted for mesophyll conductance, gains in WUE during the 20th century (0.15 ppm year-1 ) were considerably smaller than those estimated from conventional modelling (0.26 ppm year-1 ). Across the globe, mean sensitivity of WUE to atmospheric CO2 was 0.15 ppm ppm-1 . Ratios of internal-to-atmospheric CO2 (on a mole fraction basis; ci /ca ) in leaves were mostly constant over time but differed among biomes and plant taxa-highlighting the significance of both plant structure and physiology. Together with synchronized responses in stomatal and mesophyll conductance, our results suggest that ratios of chloroplastic-to-atmospheric CO2 (cc /ca ) are constrained over time. We conclude that forest WUE may have not increased as much as previously suggested and that projections of future climate forcing via CO2 fertilization may need to be adjusted accordingly.

[Differences in the ecological resilience of planted and natural Pinus massoniana and Cunninghamia lanceolata forests in response to drought in subtropical China]. / 亚热带人工和天然马尾松、杉木林生长对干旱的生态弹性差异.

We sampled Pinus massoniana and Cunninghamia lanceolata in both plantation and natural forests in central and western Fujian Province, China. Using tree-ring width, tree-ring width index, and basal area increment, we reconstructed the annual growth of 109 conifer individuals from four sites for the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012. We then calculated resistance, recovery, and resilience indices of those trees in response to two consecutive extreme droughts (2003-2004 and 2011) and analyzed the differences in resistance and resilience between plantations and natural fore-sts. The results showed that there were temporal differences in moisture requirements between P. massoniana and C. lanceolata, which accounted for their inconsistent responses to drought in 2003-2004. For both species, drought induced a marked growth reduction, without any clear lag effect. The growth responses during and following the 2003-2004 drought were significantly stronger than that for the 2011 drought. Those results indicated that P. massoniana was more resilient to drought stress than C. lanceolata, and the natural forests were more sensitive than plantations, but with stronger capacity to recover. C. lanceolata plantations were more susceptible to frequent extreme drought events. To mitigate the vulnerability of plantation trees to more frequent droughts in the future, we suggested select trees from genetic provenances with strong drought resistance.

[Ecological resilience of ancient Pinus massoniana trees to climate change and insect infestation in southeastern Fujian, China]. / é—½ä¸œå—åœ°åŒºé©¬å°¾æ¾å¤æ ‘å¯¹æ°”å€™å˜åŒ–å’Œè™«ç¾çš„ç”Ÿæ€å¼¹æ€§.

Pinus massoniana is a typical pioneer afforestation tree species widely distributed in southern China. It is crucial to study the ecological resilience of P. massoniana to disturbances under global warming, drying, and frequent pest infestation, which can shed lights on forest mana-gements. In this study, tree-ring samples collected from old-growth P. massoniana trees in Baisong Village, Xianyou County, Fujian Province, were used to develop the first standard chronology of P. massoniana ring width (1865-2014) in this region. The results showed that the low relative humidity from July to September and the extremely high temperature from May to September were the main limiting factors for tree growth. The extremely narrow years were identified in 1869, 1889, 1986, 1991 and 1993. These extremely narrow years were exacerbated after the persistently low values of the previously two years via the superposed epoch analysis (SEA). The insect infestations were more likely to happen in dry years. Insect outbreak exerted strongest effect on tree growth in 1889. The narrow tree-rings in 1986 and 1991 were affected by both insect infestation and drought. The other extremely narrow years were mainly affected by drought. The resistance of trees to insect infestation was weaker than that to drought event. The relative resilience of trees to insect infestation was higher than that to drought event, except for 1991. The relative resilience was the highest in 1889 and the lowest in 1991 under the influence of successive extreme events. Under the enhanced drying trend since 2000, more trees had died possibly due to the combined effects of insect infestation and drought.

ENSO modulates wildfire activity in China.

China is a key region for understanding fire activity and the drivers of its variability under strict fire suppression policies. Here, we present a detailed fire occurrence dataset for China, the Wildfire Atlas of China (WFAC; 2005-2018), based on continuous monitoring from multiple satellites and calibrated against field observations. We find that wildfires across China mostly occur in the winter season from January to April and those fire occurrences generally show a decreasing trend after reaching a peak in 2007. Most wildfires (84%) occur in subtropical China, with two distinct clusters in its southwestern and southeastern parts. In southeastern China, wildfires are mainly promoted by low precipitation and high diurnal temperature ranges, the combination of which dries out plant tissue and fuel. In southwestern China, wildfires are mainly promoted by warm conditions that enhance evaporation from litter and dormant plant tissues. We further find a fire occurrence dipole between southwestern and southeastern China that is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia beyond the tipping point.

Unprecedented heatwave-drought concurrences in the past two decades have been reported over inner East Asia. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of heatwaves and soil moisture for the past 260 years reveal an abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over this region. Enhanced land-atmosphere coupling, associated with persistent soil moisture deficit, appears to intensify surface warming and anticyclonic circulation anomalies, fueling heatwaves that exacerbate soil drying. Our analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of the warm and dry anomalies compounding in the recent two decades is unprecedented over the quarter of a millennium, and this trend clearly exceeds the natural variability range. The "hockey stick"-like change warns that the warming and drying concurrence is potentially irreversible beyond a tipping point in the East Asian climate system.

A tree-ring δ18O based reconstruction of East Asia summer monsoon over the past two centuries.

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) exhibits considerable decadal variations since the late 20th century. Efforts to examine long-term behaviors and dynamics of the EASM are impeded largely due to the shortness of instrumental meteorological records. So far, reconstructions of the EASM with annual resolution from its core regions remain limited. We conduct the first 200-year robust EASM reconstruction based on tree-ring cellulose δ18O records derived from Pinus massoniana trees growing in the middle Yangtze River basin, one of the core EASM areas. The δ18O chronology accounts for 46.2% of the actual variation in an index of the EASM from 1948 to 2014. The reconstructed EASM indicates that the monsoon intensity was below average before the 1950s, peaked in the 1950s-1970s, and then began to decline. The reconstructed EASM is negatively correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this teleconnection is dynamic through time, i.e. enhanced (reduced) ENSO variability coheres with strong (weak) EASM-ENSO connections. In addition, despite high ENSO variability since the 1980s, the EASM-ENSO relationship weakened possibly due to anthropogenic impact, particularly aerosol emissions.

Climate, intrinsic water-use efficiency and tree growth over the past 150 years in humid subtropical China.

Influence of long-term changes in climate and CO2 concentration on intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), defined as the ratio between net photosynthesis (A) and leaf conductance (g), and tree growth remain not fully revealed in humid subtropical China, which is distinct from other arid subtropical areas with dense coverage of broadleaf forests. This study presented the first tree-ring stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and iWUE series of Pinus massoniana from 1865 to 2013 in Fujian province, humid subtropical China, and the first tree-ring width standard chronology during the period of 1836-2013 for the Niumulin Nature Reserve (NML). Tree-ring width growth was limited by precipitation in July-August (r = 0.40, p < 0.01). The tree-ring carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) was mainly controlled by the sunshine hours (r = -0.66, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (r = 0.58, p < 0.001) in September-October, a season with rapid latewood formation in this area. The iWUE increased by 42.6% and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) explained 92.6% of the iWUE variance over the last 150 years. The steady increase in iWUE suggests an active response with a proportional increase in intercellular CO2 concentration (ci) in response to increase in ca. The contribution of iWUE to tree growth in the study region is not conspicuous, which points to influences of other factors such as climate.

Climate-Driven Synchronized Growth of Alpine Trees in the Southeast Tibetan Plateau.

Knowledge about the spatiotemporal tree growth variability and its associations with climate provides key insights into forest dynamics under future scenarios of climate change. We synthesized 17 tree-ring width chronologies from four tree species at the high-elevation sites in the southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) to study the regional tree growth variability and climate-growth relationships. Despite of diverse habitats and different physiological characteristics of these species, these tree-ring chronologies shared a significant common variance in SETP. An unprecedented increase in the shared variance is found along the latter half of the 20th century, coinciding with the enhancement of the frequency of extreme rings among chronologies. It is found that minimum winter temperature tends to be the dominant climate for trees in this region. The site-specific responses in cold (1965-1980) and warm (1990-2005) intervals by means of Fuzzy Cmeans (FCM) clustering reveal that the remarkable enhancement of growth synchrony among trees mainly occur in warm conditions. This is different from previous findings indicating that increased consistence among temperature sensitive tree rings in cold periods. This may be related to the reduced temperature sensitivity of regional tree growth as winter minimum temperature is lower than a certain threshold, which is in agreement with the "principle of ecological amplitude". In addition, it is worth noting that precipitation in June have started to restrain the tree growth since the beginning of the 1980s, which is possibly an important contributor for synchronized growth among trees in SETP.

An increase in the biogenic aerosol concentration as a contributing factor to the recent wetting trend in Tibetan Plateau.

A significant wetting trend since the early 1980s in Tibetan Plateau (TP) is most conspicuous in central and eastern Asia as shown in the instrumental data and the long-term moisture sensitive tree rings. We found that anomalies in the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulations do not play a significant role on the wetting trend in TP. Meanwhile, the weak correlation between local temperature and precipitation suggests that the temperature-induced enhancement of the local water cycle cannot fully explain the wetting trend either. This may indicate the presence of nonlinear processes between local temperature and precipitation. We hypothesize that the current warming may enhance the emissions of the biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) that can increase the secondary organic aerosols (SOA), contributing to the precipitation increase. The wetting trend can increase the vegetation cover and cause a positive feedback on the BVOC emissions. Our simulations indicate a significant contribution of increased BVOC emissions to the regional organic aerosol mass and the simulated increase in BVOC emissions is significantly correlated with the wetting trend in TP.

[Research advances in dendrochronology].

Tree-ring studies in China have achieved great advances since the 1990s, particularly for the dendroclimatological studies which have made some influence around the world. However, because of the uneven development, limited attention has been currently paid on the other branches of dendrochronology. We herein briefly compared the advances of dendrochronology in China and of the world and presented suggestions on future dendrochronological studies. Large-scale tree-ring based climate reconstructions in China are highly needed by employing mathematical methods and a high quality tree-ring network of the ring-width, density, stable isotope and wood anatomy. Tree-ring based field climate reconstructions provide potentials on explorations of climate forcings during the reconstructed periods via climate diagnosis and process simulation.

Hydroclimate variations in central and monsoonal Asia over the past 700 years.

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia.

An ensemble weighting approach for dendroclimatology: drought reconstructions for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Traditional detrending methods assign equal mean value to all tree-ring series for chronology developments, despite that the mean annual growth changes in different time periods. We find that the strength of a tree-ring model can be improved by giving more weights to tree-ring series that have a stronger climate signal and less weight to series that have a weaker signal. We thus present an ensemble weighting method to mitigate these potential biases and to more accurately extract the climate signals in dendroclimatology studies. This new method has been used to develop the first annual precipitation reconstruction (previous August to current July) at the Songmingyan Mountain and to recalculate the tree-ring chronology from Shenge site in Dulan area in northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), a marginal area of Asian summer monsoon. The ensemble weighting method explains 31.7% of instrumental variance for the reconstructions at Songmingyan Mountain and 57.3% of the instrumental variance in the Dulan area, which are higher than those developed using traditional methods. We focus on the newly introduced reconstruction at Songmingyan Mountain, which showsextremely dry (wet) epochs from 1862-1874, 1914-1933 and 1991-1999 (1882-1905). These dry/wet epochs were also found in the marginal areas of summer monsoon and the Indian subcontinent, indicating the linkages between regional hydroclimate changes and the Indian summer monsoon.

Difference in tree growth responses to climate at the upper treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains.

Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity (MS), decreased from west to east. The first principal component (PC1) loadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 loadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.