Using simple clinical and ultrasound variables to develop a model to predict first trimester pregnancy viability.

INTRODUCTION: Early prediction of pregnancies destined to miscarry will allow couples to prepare for this common but often unexpected eventuality, and clinicians to allocate finite resources. We aimed to develop a prediction model combining clinical, demographic, and sonographic data as a clinical tool to aid counselling about first trimester pregnancy outcome. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a prospective, observational cohort study conducted at Queen Charlotte's and Chelsea Hospital, UK from March 2014 to May 2019. Women with confirmed intrauterine pregnancies between 5 weeks and their dating scan (11-14 weeks) were recruited. Participants attended serial ultrasound scans in the first trimester and at each visit recorded symptoms of vaginal bleeding, pelvic pain, nausea and vomiting using validated scoring tools. Pregnancies were followed up until the dating scan (11-14 weeks). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to predict first trimester viability. A model was developed with multivariable logistic regression, variables limited by feature selection, and bootstrapping with multiple imputation was used for internal validation. RESULTS: 1403 women were recruited and after exclusions, data were available for 1105. 160 women (14.5 %) experienced first trimester miscarriage and 945 women (85.5 %) had viable pregnancies at 11-14 weeks' gestation. The average gestational age at the initial visit (calculated from the menstrual dates) was 7 + 1 weeks (+/-12.2 days). A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to predict first trimester viability and included the variables: mean gestational sac diameter, presence of fetal heart pulsations, difference in gestational age from last menstrual period and from mean sac diameter on ultrasonography, current folic acid usage and maternal age. The model demonstrated good performance (optimism-corrected area under curve (AUC) 0.84, 95 % CI 0.81-0.87; optimism-corrected calibration slope 0.969). CONCLUSION: We have developed and internally validated a model to predict first trimester viability with good accuracy prior to the 11-14 week dating scan, which now needs to be externally validated prior to clinical use.

Prognostic factors for post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression in women after early pregnancy loss: a multi-centre prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate prognostic factors for anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress (PTS) symptoms 1 month after early pregnancy loss (EPL). DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. Consecutive women were recruited, and demographic and clinical data were collected. Surveys containing the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Post-traumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale (PDS) were emailed 1 month after a loss. Univariable logistic regression was performed to link factors with caseness of anxiety, depression or PTS according to screening measures. SETTING: Early pregnancy units of three central London hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 737/1116 eligible women with an EPL were recruited. 492 responded to HADS and 487 to PDS. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome is the area under the curve (AUC) to predict any psychological morbidity (defined as moderate/severe anxiety or depression, or meeting screening criteria for PTS) for each variable. Further outcomes are explained variation (R2) and p value for any morbidity, and AUC, explained variation, and p value for each morbidity separately. RESULTS: Women who had a past diagnosis of a psychiatric condition were more likely to meet criteria for anxiety, depression or PTS (75% for current diagnosis vs 55% for past vs 30% for no diagnosis; AUC 0.61; R2 8.4%; p<0.0001), as were those with previous pregnancy loss (48% vs 30%; AUC 0.59; R2 4.3%; p<0.0001). Most of the assessed factors did not demonstrate potential utility in predicting psychological distress, including gestational age, overnight admission, time taken for diagnosis, pre-existing children and the diagnosis itself (miscarriage vs ectopic vs other) (AUCs≤0.54; R2≤0.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Women with a history of mental health problems, or those with previous losses, may be at higher risk of psychological illness 1 month after pregnancy loss. However, prognostic ability was poor overall. All women should be considered at risk.

Evaluating cut-off levels for progesterone, ß human chorionic gonadotropin and ß human chorionic gonadotropin ratio to exclude pregnancy viability in women with a pregnancy of unknown location: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: There is no global agreement on how to best determine pregnancy of unknown location viability and location using biomarkers. Measurements of progesterone and ß human chorionic gonadotropin (ßhCG) are still used in clinical practice to exclude the possibility of a viable intrauterine pregnancy (VIUP). We evaluate the predictive value of progesterone, ßhCG, and ßhCG ratio cut-off levels to exclude a VIUP in women with a pregnancy of unknown location. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of prospective multicenter study data of consecutive women with a pregnancy of unknown location between January 2015 and 2017 collected from dedicated early pregnancy assessment units of eight hospitals. Single progesterone and serial ßhCG measurements were taken. Women were followed up until final pregnancy outcome between 11 and 14 weeks of gestation was confirmed using transvaginal ultrasonography: (1) VIUP, (2) non-viable intrauterine pregnancy or failed pregnancy of unknown location, and (3) ectopic pregnancy or persisting pregnancy of unknown location. The predictive value of cut-off levels for ruling out VIUP were evaluated across a range of values likely to be encountered clinically for progesterone, ßhCG, and ßhCG ratio. RESULTS: Data from 2507 of 3272 (76.6%) women were suitable for analysis. All had data for ßhCG levels, 2248 (89.7%) had progesterone levels, and 1809 (72.2%) had ßhCG ratio. The likelihood of viability falls with the progesterone level. Although the median progesterone level associated with viability was 59 nmol/L, VIUP were identified with levels as low as 5 nmol/L. No single ßhCG cut-off reliably ruled out the presence of viability with certainty, even when the level was more than 3000 IU/L, there were 39/358 (11%) women who had a VIUP. The probability of viability decreases with the ßhCG ratio. Although the median ßhCG ratio associated with viability was 2.26, VIUP were identified with ratios as low as 1.02. A progesterone level below 2 nmol/L and ßhCG ratio below 0.87 were unlikely to be associated with viability but were not definitive when considering multiple imputation. CONCLUSIONS: Cut-off levels for ßhCG, ßhCG ratio, and progesterone are not safe to be used clinically to exclude viability in early pregnancy. Although ßhCG ratio and progesterone have slightly better performance in comparison, single ßhCG used in this manner is highly unreliable.

Association between hyperemesis gravidarum and psychological symptoms, psychosocial outcomes and infant bonding: a two-point prospective case-control multicentre survey study in an inner city setting.

OBJECTIVES: To assess if there is any association between hyperemesis gravidarum (HG), psychological morbidity and infant bonding and to quantify any psychosocial consequences of HG. DESIGN: Two-point prospective case-control, multicentre survey study with antenatal and postnatal data collection. SETTING: Three London hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women at ≤12 completed weeks gestation recruited consecutively over 2 years. Women with HG were recruited at the time of admission; controls recruited from a low risk antenatal clinic. 106 women were recruited to the case group and 108 to the control. Response rates at antenatal data collection were 87% and 85% in the case and control groups, respectively. Postnatally, the response rate was 90% in both groups. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were psychological morbidity in the antenatal and postnatal periods, infant bonding in the postnatal period and psychosocial implications of HG. Secondary outcomes were the effects of severity and longevity of HG and assessment of correlation between Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale scores and maternal-to-infant bonding scores. RESULTS: Antenatally, 49% of cases had probable depression compared with 6% of controls (OR 14.4 (5.29 to 39.44)). Postnatally, 29% of cases had probable depression versus 7% of controls (OR 5.2 (1.65 to 17.21)). There was no direct association between HG and infant bonding. 53% of women in the HG group reported needing four or more weeks of sick leave compared with 2% in the control group (OR 60.5 (95% CI 8.4 to 2535.6)). CONCLUSIONS: Long-lasting psychological morbidity associated with HG was evident. Significantly more women in the case group sought help for mental health symptoms in the antenatal period, however very few were diagnosed with or treated for depression in pregnancy or referred to specialist perinatal mental health services. HG did not directly affect infant bonding. Women in the case group required long periods off work, highlighting the socioeconomic impact of HG.

Posttraumatic stress, anxiety and depression following miscarriage and ectopic pregnancy: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early pregnancy losses are common, but their psychologic sequelae are often overlooked. Previous studies have established links between miscarriage and early symptoms of anxiety and depression. However, the incidence of posttraumatic stress symptoms and the psychologic response specifically to ectopic pregnancies have not been investigated. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate levels of posttraumatic stress, depression, and anxiety in women in the 9 months after early pregnancy loss, with a focus on miscarriage and ectopic pregnancy. Morbidity at 1 month was compared with a control group in healthy pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. Consecutive women were recruited from the early pregnancy and antenatal clinics at 3 London hospitals and received emailed surveys that contained standardized psychologic assessments that included the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Posttraumatic stress Diagnostic Scale, at 1, 3, and 9 months after loss. Control subjects were assessed after a dating scan. We assessed the proportion of participants who met the screening criteria for posttraumatic stress and moderate/severe anxiety or depression. We used logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios. RESULTS: Seven hundred thirty-seven of 1098 women (67%) with early pregnancy loss (including 537 miscarriages and 116 ectopic pregnancies) and 171 of 187 control subjects (91%) agreed to participate. Four hundred ninety-two of the women with losses (67%) completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale after 1 month; 426 women (58%) completed it after 3 months, and 338 women (46%) completed it after 9 months. Eighty-seven control subjects (51%) participated. Criteria for posttraumatic stress were met in 29% of women with early pregnancy loss after 1 month and in 18% after 9 months (odds ratio per month, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.89). Moderate/severe anxiety was reported in 24% after 1 month and in 17% after 9 months (odds ratio per month, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.94). Moderate/severe depression was reported in 11% of the women after 1 month and 6% of the women after 9 months (odds ratio per month, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.44). After miscarriage, proportions after 9 months were 16% for posttraumatic stress, 17% for anxiety, and 5% for depression. Corresponding figures after ectopic pregnancy were 21%, 23%, and 11%, respectively. In contrast, among control women with viable pregnancies, 13% reported moderate-to-severe anxiety (odds ratio loss at 1 month vs controls: 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-4.36), and 2% reported moderate-to-severe depression (odds ratio loss at 1 month vs control subjects: 3.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.27-19.2). CONCLUSION: Women experience high levels of posttraumatic stress, anxiety, and depression after early pregnancy loss. Distress declines over time but remains at clinically important levels at 9 months.

The psychological impact of early pregnancy loss.

BACKGROUND: Early pregnancy loss (EPL) is a common event, with scope for long-term personal and societal impact. There are three decades worth of published evidence of profound psychological sequelae in a significant proportion of women. However, the wide variety of outcomes, screening instruments, assessment timings and geographical locations makes it challenging to form a coherent picture of the morbidity within the whole group and its subgroups. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: This review aims to investigate three questions. (1) What is the evidence for depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following a miscarriage or an ectopic pregnancy in women and/or their partners? (2) What is the intensity and duration of these conditions, and how do they compare to those without losses? (3) Which patients have been found to be at highest risk of psychopathology? Answers to these questions are salient not only in day-to-day clinical interactions with those experiencing EPL, whose psychological needs may not be prioritized, but should also form the basis for tailoring healthcare policy in terms of screening for and treating the associated psychological morbidity. SEARCH METHODS: The following databases were searched, from the start of each database up to July 2017: MEDLINE (Ovid interface, 1948 onwards), Embase classic + Embase (Ovid interface, 1947 onwards), and PsychINFO (Ovid interface, 1806 onwards). Search strategies were developed using medical subject headings (MeSH). The concepts of psychological morbidity (anxiety, depression or PTSD) and pregnancy loss (miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy) were first expanded with the Boolean operator 'or', then linked together using 'and'. Included studies were of prospective cohort design, including women or men following EPL (with the majority to have experienced losses before 24 weeks gestation), and reporting standardized psychometric measures for anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. The timing of follow-up had to be specified and standardized across participants. Manuscript quality and risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. OUTCOMES: We found evidence of significant depression and anxiety in the first month following EPL in women. Partners were also shown to display depression and anxiety, albeit to a generally lower level. There is also evidence of post-traumatic stress symptoms relating to the EPL in three studies. WIDER IMPLICATIONS: In view of their high frequency, EPLs can significantly contribute to the overall burden of psychopathology within a population. Recognition of this impact is important, so that severely affected individuals may be screened and treated appropriately. Further research to establish risk factors to promptly identify and treat these patients, and to optimize their management, is crucial.

Ambulatory versus inpatient management of severe nausea and vomiting of pregnancy: a randomised control trial with patient preference arm.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether ambulatory (outpatient (OP)) treatment of severe nausea and vomiting of pregnancy (NVP) is as effective as inpatient (IP) care. DESIGN: Non-blinded randomised control trial (RCT) with patient preference arm. SETTING: Two multicentre teaching hospitals in London. PARTICIPANTS: Women less than 20 weeks' pregnant with severe NVP and associated ketonuria (>1+). METHODS: Women who agreed to the RCT were randomised via web-based application to either ambulatory or IP treatment. Women who declined randomisation underwent the treatment of their choice in the patient preference trial (PPT) arm. Treatment protocols, data collection and follow-up were the same for all participants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was reduction in Pregnancy Unique Quantification of Emesis (PUQE) score 48 hours after starting treatment. Secondary outcome measures were duration of treatment, improvement in symptom scores and ketonuria at 48 hours, reattendances within 7 days of discharge and comparison of symptoms at 7 days postdischarge. RESULTS: 152/174 eligible women agreed to participate with 77/152 (51%) recruited to the RCT and 75/152 (49%) to the PPT.Patients were initially compared in four groups (randomised IP, randomised OP, non-randomised IP and non-randomised OP). Comprehensive cohort analysis of participants in the randomised group (RCT) and non-randomised group (PPT) did not demonstrate any differences in patient demographics or baseline clinical characteristics. Pooled analysis of IP versus OP groups showed no difference in reduction in PUQE score at 48 hours (p=0.86). There was no difference in change in eating score (p=0.69), drinking score (p=0.77), well-being rating (p=0.64) or reduction in ketonuria (p=0.47) at 48 hours, with no difference in duration of index treatment episode (p=0.83) or reattendances within 7 days (p=0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Ambulatory management is an effective direct alternative to IP management of severe NVP. The trial also demonstrated that many women requiring treatment for severe NVP have strong preferences regarding treatment setting, which may need to be considered by care providers, especially given the psychological impact of severe NVP. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN24659467 (March 2014).

Ultrasound-Guided Laparoscopic Ovarian Wedge Resection in Recurrent Serous Borderline Ovarian Tumours.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to demonstrate the use of intraoperative ultrasound-guided ovarian wedge resection in the treatment of recurrent serous borderline ovarian tumors (sBOTs) that are too small to be visualized laparoscopically. METHODS: This was a prospective analysis of all women with recurrent sBOTs that were not visible laparoscopically, who underwent intraoperative ultrasound-guided ovarian wedge resection between January 2015 and December 2016 at the West London Gynaecological Cancer Centre, Imperial College NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom. RESULTS: We evaluated 7 patients, with a median age of 35 years (range, 28-39 years). Six women were nulliparous, whereas 1 woman had a single child. Previous surgical intervention left 5 women with a single ovary, whereas the remaining 2 had previous ovarian-sparing surgery. The median size of recurrence was 18 mm (range, 12-37 mm). All women underwent uncomplicated intraoperative guided ovarian wedge resections. Histological assessment confirmed sBOT in all 7 cases. Six of the women remain disease-free. One woman recurred postoperatively with her third recurrence, who previously had bilateral disease and noninvasive implants with microinvasive disease and micropapillary pattern. No cases progressed to invasive disease. The median follow-up time was 12 months (range, 1-20 months). One pregnancy has been achieved postoperatively but resulted in miscarriage. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous intraoperative ultrasound can be used to facilitate complete tumor excision in recurrent sBOT while minimizing the removal of ovarian tissue in women with recurrent sBOT. It is essential that surgical techniques evolve simultaneously with diagnostic imaging modalities to enable surgeons to treat such pathology.

Factors to consider in pregnancy of unknown location.

The management of women with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) can vary significantly and often lacks a clear evidence base. Intensive follow-up is usually required for women with a final outcome of an ectopic pregnancy. This, however, only accounts for a small proportion of women with a pregnancy of unknown PUL location. There remains a clear clinical need to rationalize the follow-up of PUL so women at high risk of having a final outcome of an ectopic pregnancy are followed up more intensively and those PUL at low risk of having an ectopic pregnancy have their follow-up streamlined. This review covers the main management strategies published in the current literature and aims to give clinicians an overview of the most up-to-date evidence that they can take away into their everyday clinical practice when caring for women with a PUL.

Post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression following miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This is a pilot study to investigate the type and severity of emotional distress in women after early pregnancy loss (EPL), compared with a control group with ongoing pregnancies. The secondary aim was to assess whether miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy impacted differently on the type and severity of psychological morbidity. DESIGN: This was a prospective survey study. Consecutive women were recruited between January 2012 and July 2013. We emailed women a link to a survey 1, 3 and 9 months after a diagnosis of EPL, and 1 month after the diagnosis of a viable ongoing pregnancy. SETTING: The Early Pregnancy Assessment Unit (EPAU) of a central London teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: We recruited 186 women. 128 had a diagnosis of EPL, and 58 of ongoing pregnancies. 11 withdrew consent, and 11 provided an illegible or invalid email address. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was measured using the Post-traumatic Diagnostic Scale (PDS), and anxiety and depression using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: Response rates were 69/114 at 1 month and 44/68 at 3 months in the EPL group, and 20/50 in controls. Psychological morbidity was higher in the EPL group with 28% meeting the criteria for probable PTSD, 32% for anxiety and 16% for depression at 1 month and 38%, 20% and 5%, respectively, at 3 months. In the control group, no women met criteria for PTSD and 10% met criteria for anxiety and depression. There was little difference in type or severity of distress following ectopic pregnancy or miscarriage. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown a large number of women having experienced a miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy fulfil the diagnostic criteria for probable PTSD. Many suffer from moderate-to-severe anxiety, and a lesser number depression. Psychological morbidity, and in particular PTSD symptoms, persists at least 3 months following pregnancy loss.

Defining safe criteria to diagnose miscarriage: prospective observational multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: To validate recent guidance changes by establishing the performance of cut-off values for embryo crown-rump length and mean gestational sac diameter to diagnose miscarriage with high levels of certainty. Secondary aims were to examine the influence of gestational age on interpretation of mean gestational sac diameter and crown-rump length values, determine the optimal intervals between scans and findings on repeat scans that definitively diagnose pregnancy failure.) DESIGN: Prospective multicentre observational trial. SETTING: Seven hospital based early pregnancy assessment units in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 2845 women with intrauterine pregnancies of unknown viability included if transvaginal ultrasonography showed an intrauterine pregnancy of uncertain viability. In three hospitals this was initially defined as an empty gestational sac <20 mm mean diameter with or without a visible yolk sac but no embryo, or an embryo with crown-rump length <6 mm with no heartbeat. Following amended guidance in December 2011 this definition changed to a gestational sac size <25 mm or embryo crown-rump length <7 mm. At one unit the definition was extended throughout to include a mean gestational sac diameter <30 mm or embryo crown-rump length <8 mm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean gestational sac diameter, crown-rump length, and presence or absence of embryo heart activity at initial and repeat transvaginal ultrasonography around 7-14 days later. The final outcome was pregnancy viability at 11-14 weeks' gestation. RESULTS: The following indicated a miscarriage at initial scan: mean gestational sac diameter ≥ 25 mm with an empty sac (364/364 specificity: 100%, 95% confidence interval 99.0% to 100%), embryo with crown-rump length ≥ 7 mm without visible embryo heart activity (110/110 specificity: 100%, 96.7% to 100%), mean gestational sac diameter ≥ 18 mm for gestational sacs without an embryo presenting after 70 days' gestation (907/907 specificity: 100%, 99.6% to 100%), embryo with crown-rump length ≥ 3 mm without visible heart activity presenting after 70 days' gestation (87/87 specificity: 100%, 95.8% to 100%). The following were indicative of miscarriage at a repeat scan: initial scan and repeat scan after seven days or more showing an embryo without visible heart activity (103/103 specificity: 100%, 96.5% to 100%), pregnancies without an embryo and mean gestational sac diameter <12 mm where the mean diameter has not doubled after 14 days or more (478/478 specificity: 100%, 99.2% to 100%), pregnancies without an embryo and mean gestational sac diameter ≥ 12 mm showing no embryo heartbeat after seven days or more (150/150 specificity: 100%, 97.6% to 100%). CONCLUSIONS: Recently changed cut-off values of gestational sac and embryo size defining miscarriage are appropriate and not too conservative but do not take into account gestational age. Guidance on timing between scans and expected findings on repeat scans are still too liberal. Protocols for miscarriage diagnosis should be reviewed to account for this evidence to avoid misdiagnosis and the risk of terminating viable pregnancies.