RESUMEN
AIMS: This study aimed to develop a prediction model for identifying a woman with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) post-birth. METHODS: Utilising data from 1299 women in the Lifestyle Intervention IN Gestational Diabetes (LIVING) study, two models were developed: one for pregnancy and another for postpartum. Key predictors included glucose test results, medical history, and biometric indicators. RESULTS: Of the initial cohort, 124 women developed T2DM within three years. The study identified seven predictors for the antenatal T2DM risk prediction model and four for the postnatal one. The models demonstrated good to excellent predictive ability, with Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) values of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72 to 0.80) and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.88) for the antenatal and postnatal models, respectively. Both models underwent rigorous validation, showing minimal optimism in predictive capability. Antenatal model, considering the Youden index optimal cut-off point of 0.096, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were measured as 70.97%, 70.81%, and 70.82%, respectively. For the postnatal model, considering the cut-off point 0.086, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were measured as 81.40%, 75.60%, and 76.10%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These models are effective for predicting T2DM risk in women with GDM, although external validation is recommended before widespread application.
Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Diabetes Gestacional , Estilo de Vida , Periodo Posparto , Humanos , Femenino , Embarazo , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/prevención & control , Adulto , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Factores de Riesgo , Curva ROCRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To explore associations between type and number of abnormal glucose values on antenatal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with postpartum diabetes in South Asian women diagnosed with gestational diabetes (GDM) using International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria. METHODS: This post-hoc evaluation of the Lifestyle Intervention IN Gestational Diabetes (LIVING) study, a randomized controlled trial, was conducted among women with GDM in the index pregnancy, across 19 centers in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka. Postpartum diabetes (outcome) was defined on OGTT, using American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria. RESULTS: We report data on 1468 women with GDM, aged 30.9 (5.0) years, and with median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 1.8 (1.4-2.4) years after childbirth following the index pregnancy. We found diabetes in 213 (14.5%) women with an incidence of 8.7 (7.6-10.0)/100 women-years. The lowest incidence rate was 3.8/100 women years, in those with an isolated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) abnormality, and highest was 19.0/100 women years in participants with three abnormal values. The adjusted hazard ratios for two and three abnormal values compared to one abnormal value were 1.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-2.54; p = .005) and 3.56 (95% CI, 2.46-5.16; p < .001) respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio for the combined (combination of fasting and postglucose load) abnormalities was 2.61 (95% CI, 1.70-4.00; p < .001), compared to isolated abnormal FPG. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of diabetes varied significantly depending upon the type and number of abnormal values on antenatal OGTT. These data may inform future precision medicine approaches such as risk prediction models in identifying women at higher risk and may guide future targeted interventions.
Asunto(s)
Glucemia , Diabetes Gestacional , Prueba de Tolerancia a la Glucosa , Periodo Posparto , Humanos , Femenino , Embarazo , Diabetes Gestacional/epidemiología , Diabetes Gestacional/diagnóstico , Diabetes Gestacional/sangre , Adulto , Glucemia/análisis , Glucemia/metabolismo , Factores de Riesgo , Incidencia , Sri Lanka/epidemiología , India/epidemiología , Bangladesh/epidemiología , Pronóstico , Estudios de SeguimientoRESUMEN
AIM: To study, the incidence and risk factors for postpartum diabetes (DM), in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) from South Asia (Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka), followed for nearly two years after delivery. METHODS: Women with prior GDM diagnosed using IADPSG criteria were invited at 19 centres across Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka for an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) following childbirth, and were enrolled in a randomized controlled trial. The glycaemic category (outcome) was defined from an OGTT based on American Diabetes Association criteria. RESULTS: Participants (n = 1808) recruited had a mean ± SD age of 31.0 ± 5.0 years. Incident DM was identified, between childbirth and the last follow-up, in 310 (17.1 %) women [incidence 10.75/100 person years], with a median follow-up duration of 1.82 years after childbirth. Higher age, lower education status, higher prior pregnancy count, prior history of GDM, family history of DM, and postpartum overweight/obese status were significantly associated with incident DM. Women in Bangladesh had a higher cumulative incidence of DM [16.49/100 person years] than in Sri Lanka [12.74/100 person years] and India [7.21/100 person years]. CONCLUSIONS: A high incidence of DM was found in women with prior GDM in South Asia, with significant variation between countries. Women from Bangladesh had a significantly higher pregnancy count, family history of DM and overweight/obese status, despite having significantly lower age, which could be responsible for their higher rates of DM. Registration of this study: The study was registered with the Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI/2017/06/008744), Sri Lanka Clinical Trials Registry (SLCTR/2017/001), and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03305939).
Asunto(s)
Diabetes Gestacional , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Adulto , Masculino , Diabetes Gestacional/epidemiología , Diabetes Gestacional/diagnóstico , Incidencia , Sri Lanka/epidemiología , Bangladesh/epidemiología , Sur de Asia , Sobrepeso , Factores de Riesgo , Periodo Posparto , India/epidemiología , ObesidadRESUMEN
Importance: Women with recent gestational diabetes (GDM) have increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Objective: To investigate whether a resource-appropriate and context-appropriate lifestyle intervention could prevent glycemic deterioration among women with recent GDM in South Asia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized, participant-unblinded controlled trial investigated a 12-month lifestyle intervention vs usual care at 19 urban hospitals in India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Participants included women with recent diagnosis of GDM who did not have type 2 diabetes at an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 3 to 18 months postpartum. They were enrolled from November 2017 to January 2020, and follow-up ended in January 2021. Data were analyzed from April to July 2021. Interventions: A 12-month lifestyle intervention focused on diet and physical activity involving group and individual sessions, as well as remote engagement, adapted to local context and resources. This was compared with usual care. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was worsening category of glycemia based on OGTT using American Diabetes Association criteria: (1) normal glucose tolerance to prediabetes (ie, impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance) or type 2 diabetes or (2) prediabetes to type 2 diabetes. The primary analysis consisted of a survival analysis of time to change in glycemic status at or prior to the final patient visit, which occurred at varying times after 12 months for each patient. Secondary outcomes included new-onset type 2 diabetes and change in body weight. Results: A total of 1823 women (baseline mean [SD] age, 30.9 [4.9] years and mean [SD] body mass index, 26.6 [4.6]) underwent OGTT at a median (IQR) 6.5 (4.8-8.2) months postpartum. After excluding 160 women (8.8%) with type 2 diabetes, 2 women (0.1%) who met other exclusion criteria, and 49 women (2.7%) who did not consent or were uncontactable, 1612 women were randomized. Subsequently, 11 randomized participants were identified as ineligible and excluded from the primary analysis, leaving 1601 women randomized (800 women randomized to the intervention group and 801 women randomized to usual care). These included 600 women (37.5%) with prediabetes and 1001 women (62.5%) with normoglycemia. Among participants randomized to the intervention, 644 women (80.5%) received all program content, although COVID-19 lockdowns impacted the delivery model (ie, among 644 participants who engaged in all group sessions, 476 women [73.9%] received some or all content through individual engagement, and 315 women [48.9%] received some or all content remotely). After a median (IQR) 14.1 (11.4-20.1) months of follow-up, 1308 participants (81.2%) had primary outcome data. The intervention, compared with usual care, did not reduce worsening glycemic status (204 women [25.5%] vs 217 women [27.1%]; hazard ratio, 0.92; [95% CI, 0.76-1.12]; P = .42) or improve any secondary outcome. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that a large proportion of women in South Asian urban settings developed dysglycemia soon after a GDM-affected pregnancy and that a lifestyle intervention, modified owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, did not prevent subsequent glycemic deterioration. These findings suggest that alternate or additional approaches are needed, especially among high-risk individuals. Trial Registration: Clinical Trials Registry of India Identifier: CTRI/2017/06/008744; Sri Lanka Clinical Trials Registry Identifier: SLCTR/2017/001; and ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03305939.
Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/prevención & control , Diabetes Gestacional/prevención & control , Dieta , Ejercicio Físico , Control Glucémico/métodos , Estilo de Vida , Periodo Posparto , Adulto , Bangladesh , Glucemia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/etnología , Diabetes Gestacional/etnología , Femenino , Prueba de Tolerancia a la Glucosa , Humanos , India , Embarazo , Sri Lanka , Análisis de Supervivencia , Resultado del Tratamiento , Población UrbanaRESUMEN
Background: The negative impact of COVID-19 on mental health has been reported by media throughout the world, although this role is not well-understood in low-and middle-income countries (LMIC). We examined the reporting of mental health issues during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh and initiatives undertaken to support mental health reported from the viewpoint of media. Methods: We reviewed articles published in 10 local newspapers, including seven Bangla and three English newspapers, during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. News topics were identified through discussions among the team members, with searches across online newspapers and portals. Data extrapolated from newspapers were documented in an Excel spreadsheet. A mixed-method approach was used following a framework analysis for analyzing data. Recurring issues and commonly emerging topics were generated from the data. Descriptive statistics were applied for analyzing quantitative data. Results: Between March 2020 and March 2021, we have identified 201 reports on mental health issues including 45 reports (22.4%) focused on stress due to the associated financial crisis, unemployment and loneliness, 50 reports (24.9%) of 80 apparent suicides linked to family issues, disharmony in conjugal relationships, harassment, sexual violence, emotional breakdown, financial crisis, and stigma due to COVID-19.There were 77 reports (38.3%) concerning domestic violence during the pandemic. Twenty-nine reports (14.4%) referenced actions taken by different organizations to address mental health issues in response to the pandemic in Bangladesh. Conclusion: News coverage has the scope to highlight important issues that can emerge as a consequence of the COVID-pandemic, such as mental health, in a low resource setting. Capacity building of the media on the way to report mental health issues during emergency situations could be a useful strategy for more credible reporting on mental health issues during the COVID-19 pandemic for raising awareness of the public and policymakers about the negative consequences on mental health of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. Adopting policies to support essential mental health care and promoting the local organizations to take timely public health measures will be imperative for averting the negative consequences of mental health due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.