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1.
J Emerg Med ; 67(1): e22-e30, 2024 Jul.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38824038

BACKGROUND: Asthma, the most common chronic disease of childhood, can affect a child's physical and mental health and social and emotional development. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with emergency department (ED) return visits for asthma exacerbations within 14 days of an initial visit. METHODS: This was a retrospective review from Cerner Real-World Data for patients aged from 5 to 18 years and seen at an ED for an asthma exacerbation and discharged home at the index ED visit. Asthma visits were defined as encounters in which a patient was diagnosed with asthma and a beta agonist, anticholinergic, or systemic steroid was ordered or prescribed at that encounter. Return visits were ED visits for asthma within 14 days of an index ED visit. Data, including demographic characteristics, ED evaluation and treatment, health care utilization, and medical history, were collected. Data were analyzed via logistic regression mixed effects model. RESULTS: A total of 80,434 index visits and 17,443 return visits met inclusion criteria. Prior ED return visits in the past year were associated with increased odds of a return visit (odds ratio [OR] 2.12; 95% CI 2.07-2.16). History of pneumonia, a concomitant diagnosis of pneumonia, and fever were associated with increased odds of a return visit (OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.10-1.29; OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.04-1.28; OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.11-1.30, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Several variables seem to be associated with statistically significant increased odds of ED return visits. These findings indicate a potentially identifiable population of at-risk patients who may benefit from additional evaluation, planning, or education prior to discharge.


Asthma , Emergency Service, Hospital , Humans , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Emergency Service, Hospital/organization & administration , Female , Male , Child , Retrospective Studies , Adolescent , Child, Preschool , Risk Factors , Patient Readmission/statistics & numerical data , Logistic Models
2.
Pediatr Neurol ; 147: 130-138, 2023 10.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37611407

BACKGROUND: We investigated the association between chronic pediatric neurological conditions and the severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: This matched retrospective case-control study includes patients (n = 71,656) with chronic complex neurological disorders under 18 years of age, with laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 or a diagnostic code indicating infection or exposure to SARS-CoV-2, from 103 health systems in the United States. The primary outcome was the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which was classified as severe (invasive oxygen therapy or death), moderate (noninvasive oxygen therapy), or mild/asymptomatic (no oxygen therapy). A cumulative link mixed effects model was used for this study. RESULTS: In this study, a cumulative link mixed effects model (random intercepts for health systems and patients) showed that the following classes of chronic neurological disorders were associated with higher odds of severe COVID-19: muscular dystrophies and myopathies (OR = 3.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.73 to 3.84), chronic central nervous system disorders (OR = 2.82; 95% CI: 2.67 to 2.97), cerebral palsy (OR = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.85 to 2.10), congenital neurological disorders (OR = 1.86; 95% CI: 1.75 to 1.96), epilepsy (OR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.26 to 1.44), and intellectual developmental disorders (OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.003 to 1.19). Movement disorders were associated with lower odds of severe COVID-19 (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.81 to 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric patients with chronic neurological disorders are at higher odds of severe COVID-19. Movement disorders were associated with lower odds of severe COVID-19.


COVID-19 , Movement Disorders , Nervous System Diseases , Humans , United States/epidemiology , Child , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , Case-Control Studies , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Nervous System Diseases/epidemiology , Disease Susceptibility , Chronic Disease
3.
J Pediatr Nurs ; 72: 113-120, 2023.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37499439

The prevalence and morbidity of Asthma in the United States has increased since the 1991 National Asthma Education and Prevention Program (NAEPP) and updated Expert Panel Report -3 (EPR-3) guidelines in 2007 were published. To improve provider adherence to the NAEPP EPR-3 guidelines Children's Hospital of Orange County (CHOC) in California integrated the HealtheIntentSM Pediatric Asthma Registry (PAR) into the electronic medical record (EMR) in 2015. METHODS: A serial cross-sectional design was used to compare provider management of CHOC MediCal asthma patients before 2014 (N = 6606) and after 2018 (N = 6945) integration of the Registry with NAEPP guidelines into the EMR. Four provider adherence measures (Asthma Control Test [ACT], Asthma Action Plan [AAP], inhaled corticosteroids [ICS] and spacers) were evaluated using General Linear Mixed Models and Chi square. FINDINGS: In 2018, patients were more likely to receive an ACT, (OR = 14.95, 95% CI 12.67, 17.65, p < .001), AAP (OR = 12.70, 95% CI 11.10, 14.54, p < .001), ICS (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 8.52, 14.54, p < .001) and spacer (OR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.31, 1.6, p < .001) compared to those in 2014. DISCUSSION: The pilot study showed integration of the Pediatric Asthma Registry into the EMR, as a computer decision support tool that was an effective intervention to increase provider adherence to NAEPP guidelines. Ongoing monitoring and education are needed to promote and sustain provider behavioral change. Additional research to include multi-sites and decreased time between evaluation years is recommended. APPLICATION TO PRACTICE: Can be used for excellent health policy decision making as a direct impact on patient care and outcomes, by improving provider adherence to the NAEPP guidelines.


Asthma , Education, Nursing , Child , Humans , United States , Pilot Projects , Cross-Sectional Studies , Asthma/drug therapy , Asthma/prevention & control , Adrenal Cortex Hormones
4.
Am J Perinatol ; 2023 Apr 18.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36958343

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess interaction effects between gestational age and birth weight on 30-day unplanned hospital readmission following discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective study that uses the study site's Children's Hospitals Neonatal Database and electronic health records. Population included patients discharged from a NICU between January 2017 and March 2020. Variables encompassing demographics, gestational age, birth weight, medications, maternal data, and surgical procedures were controlled for. A statistical interaction between gestational age and birth weight was tested for statistical significance. RESULTS: A total of 2,307 neonates were included, with 7.2% readmitted within 30 days of discharge. Statistical interaction between birth weight and gestational age was statistically significant, indicating that the odds of readmission among low birthweight premature patients increase with increasing gestational age, whereas decrease with increasing gestational age among their normal or high birth weight peers. CONCLUSION: The effect of gestational age on odds of hospital readmission is dependent on birth weight. KEY POINTS: · Population included patients discharged from a NICU between January 2017 and March 2020.. · A total of 2,307 neonates were included, with 7.2% readmitted within 30 days of discharge.. · The effect of gestational age on odds of hospital readmission is dependent on birth weight..

5.
Pediatrics ; 150(4)2022 10 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35996224

OBJECTIVES: Data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in neonates are limited. We aimed to identify and describe the incidence, presentation, and clinical outcomes of neonatal COVID-19. METHODS: Over 1 million neonatal encounters at 109 United States health systems, from March 2020 to February 2021, were extracted from the Cerner Real World Database. COVID-19 diagnosis was assessed using severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) laboratory tests and diagnosis codes. Incidence of COVID-19 per 100 000 encounters was estimated. RESULTS: COVID-19 was diagnosed in 918 (0.1%) neonates (91.1 per 100 000 encounters [95% confidence interval 85.3-97.2]). Of these, 71 (7.7%) had severe infection (7 per 100 000 [95% confidence interval 5.5-8.9]). Median time to diagnosis was 14.5 days from birth (interquartile range 3.1-24.2). Common signs of infection were tachypnea and fever. Those with severe infection were more likely to receive respiratory support (50.7% vs 5.2%, P < .001). Severely ill neonates received analgesia (38%), antibiotics (33.8%), anticoagulants (32.4%), corticosteroids (26.8%), remdesivir (2.8%), and COVID-19 convalescent plasma (1.4%). A total of 93.6% neonates were discharged home after care, 1.1% were transferred to another hospital, and discharge disposition was unknown for 5.2%. One neonate (0.1%) with presentation suggestive of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children died after 11 days of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Most neonates infected with SARS-CoV-2 were asymptomatic or developed mild illness without need for respiratory support. Some had severe illness requiring treatment of COVID-19 with remdesivir and COVID-19 convalescent plasma. SARS-CoV-2 infection in neonates, though rare, may result in severe disease.


COVID-19 , Anti-Bacterial Agents , Anticoagulants , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19 Testing , Child , Humans , Immunization, Passive , Infant, Newborn , SARS-CoV-2 , Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome , United States/epidemiology , COVID-19 Serotherapy
6.
JAMA Netw Open ; 5(5): e2211967, 2022 05 02.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35579899

Importance: Identifying the associations between severe COVID-19 and individual cardiovascular conditions in pediatric patients may inform treatment. Objective: To assess the association between previous or preexisting cardiovascular conditions and severity of COVID-19 in pediatric patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data from a large, multicenter, electronic health records database in the US. The cohort included patients aged 2 months to 17 years with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 or a diagnosis code indicating infection or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 at 85 health systems between March 1, 2020, and January 31, 2021. Exposures: Diagnoses for 26 cardiovascular conditions between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019 (before infection with SARS-CoV-2). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was severe COVID-19, defined as need for supplemental oxygen or in-hospital death. Mixed-effects, random intercept logistic regression modeling assessed the significance and magnitude of associations between 26 cardiovascular conditions and COVID-19 severity. Multiple comparison adjustment was performed using the Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate procedure. Results: The study comprised 171 416 pediatric patients; the median age was 8 years (IQR, 2-14 years), and 50.28% were male. Of these patients, 17 065 (9.96%) had severe COVID-19. The random intercept model showed that the following cardiovascular conditions were associated with severe COVID-19: cardiac arrest (odds ratio [OR], 9.92; 95% CI, 6.93-14.20), cardiogenic shock (OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.90-4.96), heart surgery (OR, 3.04; 95% CI, 2.26-4.08), cardiopulmonary disease (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.56-2.34), heart failure (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.46-2.26), hypotension (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.38-1.79), nontraumatic cerebral hemorrhage (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.24-1.91), pericarditis (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.17-1.94), simple biventricular defects (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.29-1.62), venous embolism and thrombosis (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.11-1.73), other hypertensive disorders (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.09-1.63), complex biventricular defects (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.14-1.54), and essential primary hypertension (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.38). Furthermore, 194 of 258 patients (75.19%) with a history of cardiac arrest were younger than 12 years. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that some previous or preexisting cardiovascular conditions are associated with increased severity of COVID-19 among pediatric patients in the US and that morbidity may be increased among individuals children younger than 12 years with previous cardiac arrest.


COVID-19 , Heart Arrest , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Heart Arrest/epidemiology , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Data Brief ; 42: 108120, 2022 Jun.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35434225

Cerner Real-World Data TM (CRWD) is a de-identified big data source of multicenter electronic health records. Cerner Corporation secured appropriate data use agreements and permissions from more than 100 health systems in the United States contributing to the database as of March 2022. A subset of the database was extracted to include data from only patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections and is referred to as the Cerner COVID-19 Dataset. The December 2021 version of CRWD consists of 100 million patients and 1.5 billion encounters across all care settings. There are 2.3 billion, 2.9 billion, 486 million, and 11.5 billion records in the condition, medication, procedure, and lab (laboratory test) tables respectively. The 2021 Q3 COVID-19 Dataset consists of 130.1 million encounters from 3.8 million patients. The size and longitudinal nature of CRWD can be leveraged for advanced analytics and artificial intelligence in medical research across all specialties and is a rich source of novel discoveries on a wide range of conditions including but not limited to COVID-19.

8.
JAMIA Open ; 5(1): ooab120, 2022 Apr.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35047761

Aggregate de-identified data from electronic health records (EHRs) provide a valuable resource for research. The Standardized Health data and Research Exchange (SHaRE) is a diverse group of US healthcare organizations contributing to the Cerner Health Facts (HF) and Cerner Real-World Data (CRWD) initiatives. The 51 facilities at the 7 founding organizations have provided data about more than 4.8 million patients with 63 million encounters to HF and 7.4 million patients and 119 million encounters to CRWD. SHaRE organizations unmask their organization IDs and provide 3-digit zip code (zip3) data to support epidemiology and disparity research. SHaRE enables communication between members, facilitating data validation and collaboration as we demonstrate by comparing imputed EHR module usage to actual usage. Unlike other data sharing initiatives, no additional technology installation is required. SHaRE establishes a foundation for members to engage in discussions that bridge data science research and patient care, promoting the learning health system.

9.
Pediatr Emerg Care ; 38(2): e544-e549, 2022 Feb 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34348353

BACKGROUND: Published data on predictive factors associated with parent satisfaction from care in a pediatric emergency department (ED) visit are limited to be descriptive and obtained from small data sets. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to determine both modifiable and nonmodifiable demographic and operational factors that influence parental satisfaction using a large and ethnically diverse site data set. METHODS: Data consist of responses to the National Research Council (NRC) survey questionnaires and electronic medical records of 15,895 pediatric patients seen in a pediatric ED between the ages of 0 and 17 years discharged from May 2018 to September 2019. Bivariate, χ2, and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out using the NRC item on rating the ED between 0 and 10 as the primary outcome. Responses were coded using a top-box approach, a response of "9" or "10" represented satisfaction with the facility, and every other response was indicated as undesirable. Demographic data and NRC questionnaire were used as potential predictors. RESULTS: Multivariable regression analysis found the following variables as independent predictors for positive parental rating of the ED: Hispanic race/ethnicity (odds ratio [OR], 1.285), primary language Spanish (OR, 2.399), and patients who had government-sponsored insurance (OR, 1.470). Those survey items with the largest effect size were timeliness of care (OR, 0.188) and managing discomfort (OR, 0.412). CONCLUSIONS: Parental rating of an ED is associated with nonmodifiable variables such as ethnicity and modifiable variables such as timeliness of care and managing discomfort.


Emergency Service, Hospital , Patient Satisfaction , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Language , Patient Discharge , Surveys and Questionnaires
10.
Hosp Pediatr ; 11(10): 1151-1163, 2021 10.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34535502

BACKGROUND: In this interventional study, we addressed the selection and application of clinical interventions on pediatric patients identified as at risk by a predictive model for readmissions. METHODS: A predictive model for readmissions was implemented, and a team of providers expanded corresponding clinical interventions for at-risk patients at a freestanding children's hospital. Interventions encompassed social determinants of health, outpatient care, medication reconciliation, inpatient and discharge planning, and postdischarge calls and/or follow-up. Statistical process control charts were used to compare readmission rates for the 3-year period preceding adoption of the model and clinical interventions with those for the 2-year period after adoption of the model and clinical interventions. Potential financial savings were estimated by using national estimates of the cost of pediatric inpatient readmissions. RESULTS: The 30-day all-cause readmission rates during the periods before and after predictive modeling (and corresponding 95% confidence intervals [CI]) were 12.5% (95% CI: 12.2%-12.8%) and 11.1% (95% CI: 10.8%-11.5%), respectively. More modest but similar improvements were observed for 7-day readmissions. Statistical process control charts indicated nonrandom reductions in readmissions after predictive model adoption. The national estimate of the cost of pediatric readmissions indicates an associated health care savings due to reduced 30-day readmission during the 2-year predictive modeling period at $2 673 264 (95% CI: $2 612 431-$2 735 364). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of predictive modeling and targeted clinical interventions to improve the management of pediatric patients at high risk for readmission was successful in reducing the rate of readmission and reducing overall health care costs. The continued prioritization of patients with potentially modifiable outcomes is key to improving patient outcomes.


Aftercare , Patient Readmission , Child , Hospitals, Pediatric , Humans , Medication Reconciliation , Patient Discharge
11.
West J Emerg Med ; 22(5): 1167-1175, 2021 Sep 02.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34546894

INTRODUCTION: Children and adolescents are not impervious to the unprecedented epidemic of opioid misuse in the United States. In 2016 more than 88,000 adolescents between the ages of 12-17 reported misusing opioid medication, and evidence suggests that there has been a rise in opioid-related mortality for pediatric patients. A major source of prescribed opioids for the treatment of pain is the emergency department (ED). The current study sought to assess the complex relationship between opioid administration, pain severity, and parent satisfaction with children's care in a pediatric ED. METHODS: We examined data from a tertiary pediatric care facility. A health survey questionnaire was administered after ED discharge to capture the outcome of parental likelihood of providing a positive facility rating. We abstracted patient demographic, clinical, and top diagnostic information using electronic health records. Data were merged and multivariable models were constructed. RESULTS: We collected data from 15,895 pediatric patients between the ages of 0-17 years (mean = 6.69; standard deviation = 5.19) and their parents. Approximately 786 (4.94%) patients were administered an opioid; 8212 (51.70%) were administered a non-opioid analgesic; and 3966 (24.95%) expressed clinically significant pain (pain score >/= 4). Results of a multivariable regression analysis from these pediatric patients revealed a three-way interaction of age, pain severity, and opioid administration (odds ratio 1.022, 95% confidence interval, 1.006, 1.038, P = 0.007). Our findings suggest that opioid administration negatively impacted parent satisfaction of older adolescent patients in milder pain who were administered an opioid analgesic, but positively influenced the satisfaction scores of parents of younger children who were administered opioids. When pain levels were severe, the relationship between age and patient experience was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: This investigation highlights the complexity of the relationship between opioid administration, pain severity, and satisfaction, and suggests that the impact of opioid administration on parent satisfaction is a function of the age of the child.


Analgesics, Opioid/therapeutic use , Pain/drug therapy , Parents/psychology , Personal Satisfaction , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Child, Preschool , Emergency Service, Hospital , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Medicare , Middle Aged , United States/epidemiology
13.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 14974, 2021 07 22.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34294743

The COVID-19 pandemic is a public health crisis that has the potential to exacerbate worldwide malnutrition. This study examines whether patients with a history of malnutrition are predisposed to severe COVID-19. To do so, data on 103,099 COVID-19 inpatient encounters from 56 hospitals in the United States between March 2020 and June 2020 were retrieved from the Cerner COVID-19 Dataset. Patients with a history of malnutrition between 2015 and 2019 were identified, and a random intercept logistic regression models for pediatric and adult patients were built controlling for patient demographics, socioeconomic status, admission vital signs, and related comorbidities. Statistical interactions between malnutrition and patient age were significant in both the pediatric [log-odds and 95% confidence interval: 0.094 (0.012, 0.175)] and adult [- 0.014 (- 0.021, - 0.006] models. These interactions, together with the main effect terms of malnutrition and age, imply higher odds for severe COVID-19 for children between 6 and 17 years with history of malnutrition. Even higher odds of severe COVID-19 exist for adults (with history of malnutrition) between 18 and 79 years. These results indicate that the long-term effect of malnutrition predisposes patients to severe COVID-19 in an age-dependent way.


COVID-19/complications , Malnutrition/complications , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Nutrition Assessment , Nutritional Status , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Severity of Illness Index , United States/epidemiology , Vital Signs , Young Adult
14.
IEEE J Transl Eng Health Med ; 9: 4800105, 2021.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34327067

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this report is to provide insight from pediatric stakeholders with a shared desire to facilitate a revision of the current United States regulatory pathways for the development of pediatric healthcare devices. METHODS: On August 5, 2020, a group of innovators, engineers, professors and clinicians met to discuss challenges and opportunities for the development of new medical devices for pediatric health and the importance of creating a regulatory environment that encourages and accelerates the research and development of such devices. On January 6, 2021, this group joined regulatory experts at a follow-up meeting. RESULTS: One of the primary issues identified was the need to present decision-makers with opportunities that change the return-on-investment balance between adult and pediatric devices to promote investment in pediatric devices. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Several proposed strategies were discussed, and these strategies can be divided into two broad categories: 1. Removal of real and perceived barriers to pediatric device innovation; 2. Increasing incentives for pediatric device innovation.


Delivery of Health Care , Child , Humans , United States
15.
Am J Emerg Med ; 48: 209-217, 2021 Oct.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33975133

OBJECTIVE: To develop and analyze the performance of a machine learning model capable of predicting the disposition of patients presenting to a pediatric emergency department (ED) based on triage assessment and historical information mined from electronic health records. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed data from 585,142 ED visits at a pediatric quaternary care institution between 2013 and 2020. An extreme gradient boosting machine learning model was trained on a randomly selected training data set (50%) to stratify patients into 3 classes: (1) high criticality (patients requiring intensive care unit [ICU] care within 4 h of hospital admission, patients who died within 4 h of admission, and patients who died in the ED); (2) moderate criticality (patients requiring hospitalization without the need for ICU care); and (3) low criticality (patients discharged home). Variables considered during model development included triage vital signs, aspects of triage nursing assessment, demographics, and historical information (diagnoses, medication use, and healthcare utilization). Historical factors were limited to the 6 months preceding the index ED visit. The model was tested on a previously withheld test data set (40%), and its performance analyzed. RESULTS: The distribution of criticality among high, moderate, and low was 1.5%, 7.1%, and 91.4%, respectively. The one-versus-all area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for high and moderate criticality was 0.982 (95% CI 0.980, 0.983) and 0.968 (0.967, 0.969). The multi-class macro average AUROC and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.976 and 0.754. The features most integral to model performance included history of intravenous medications, capillary refill, emergency severity index level, history of hospitalization, use of a supplemental oxygen device, age, and history of admission to the ICU. CONCLUSION: Pediatric ED disposition can be accurately predicted using information available at triage, providing an opportunity to improve quality of care and patient outcomes.


Emergency Service, Hospital , Pediatric Emergency Medicine , Severity of Illness Index , Triage , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Critical Illness , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Young Adult
16.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 8578, 2021 04 21.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33883572

This study was designed to develop and validate an early warning system for sepsis based on a predictive model of critical decompensation. Data from the electronic medical records for 537,837 visits to a pediatric Emergency Department (ED) from March 2013 to December 2019 were collected. A multiclass stochastic gradient boosting model was built to identify early warning signs associated with death, severe sepsis, non-severe sepsis, and bacteremia. Model features included triage vital signs, previous diagnoses, medications, and healthcare utilizations within 6 months of the index ED visit. There were 483 patients who had severe sepsis and/or died, 1102 had non-severe sepsis, 1103 had positive bacteremia tests, and the remaining had none of the events. The most important predictors were age, heart rate, length of stay of previous hospitalizations, temperature, systolic blood pressure, and prior sepsis. The one-versus-all area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) were 0.979 (0.967, 0.991), 0.990 (0.985, 0.995), 0.976 (0.972, 0.981), and 0.968 (0.962, 0.974) for death, severe sepsis, non-severe sepsis, and bacteremia without sepsis respectively. The multi-class macro average AUROC and area under the precision recall curve were 0.977 and 0.316 respectively. The study findings were used to develop an automated early warning decision tool for sepsis. Implementation of this model in pediatric EDs will allow sepsis-related critical decompensation to be predicted accurately after a few seconds of triage.


Early Warning Score , Emergency Service, Hospital , Heart Failure/diagnosis , Sepsis/diagnosis , Triage/methods , Age Factors , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Heart Rate , Humans , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Male , Reproducibility of Results , Risk Factors , Stochastic Processes , Vital Signs
17.
Intell Based Med ; 5: 100030, 2021.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33748802

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular and other circulatory system diseases have been implicated in the severity of COVID-19 in adults. This study provides a super learner ensemble of models for predicting COVID-19 severity among these patients. METHOD: The COVID-19 Dataset of the Cerner Real-World Data was used for this study. Data on adult patients (18 years or older) with cardiovascular diseases between 2017 and 2019 were retrieved and a total of 13 of these conditions were identified. Among these patients, 33,042 admitted with positive diagnoses for COVID-19 between March 2020 and June 2020 (from 59 hospitals) were identified and selected for this study. A total of 14 statistical and machine learning models were developed and combined into a more powerful super learning model for predicting COVID-19 severity on admission to the hospital. RESULT: LASSO regression, a full extreme gradient boosting model with tree depth of 2, and a full logistic regression model were the most predictive with cross-validated AUROCs of 0.7964, 0.7961, and 0.7958 respectively. The resulting super learner ensemble model had a cross validated AUROC of 0.8006 (range: 0.7814, 0.8163). The unbiased AUROC of the super learner model on an independent test set was 0.8057 (95% CI: 0.7954, 0.8159). CONCLUSION: Highly predictive models can be built to predict COVID-19 severity of patients with cardiovascular and other circulatory conditions. Super learning ensembles will improve individual and classical ensemble models significantly.

18.
Front Physiol ; 12: 641066, 2021.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33716788

INTRODUCTION: Multiple algorithms based on 12-lead ECG measurements have been proposed to identify the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) and left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) locations from which ventricular tachycardia (VT) and frequent premature ventricular complex (PVC) originate. However, a clinical-grade machine learning algorithm that automatically analyzes characteristics of 12-lead ECGs and predicts RVOT or LVOT origins of VT and PVC is not currently available. The effective ablation sites of RVOT and LVOT, confirmed by a successful ablation procedure, provide evidence to create RVOT and LVOT labels for the machine learning model. METHODS: We randomly sampled training, validation, and testing data sets from 420 patients who underwent successful catheter ablation (CA) to treat VT or PVC, containing 340 (81%), 38 (9%), and 42 (10%) patients, respectively. We iteratively trained a machine learning algorithm supplied with 1,600,800 features extracted via our proprietary algorithm from 12-lead ECGs of the patients in the training cohort. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated from the internal validation data set to choose an optimal discretization cutoff threshold. RESULTS: The proposed approach attained the following performance: accuracy (ACC) of 97.62 (87.44-99.99), weighted F1-score of 98.46 (90-100), AUC of 98.99 (96.89-100), sensitivity (SE) of 96.97 (82.54-99.89), and specificity (SP) of 100 (62.97-100). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed multistage diagnostic scheme attained clinical-grade precision of prediction for LVOT and RVOT locations of VT origin with fewer applicability restrictions than prior studies.

19.
Cancer Rep (Hoboken) ; 4(3): e1343, 2021 06.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33533203

BACKGROUND: Pediatric oncology patients have high rates of hospital readmission but there is a dearth of research into risk factors for unplanned 30-day readmissions among this high-risk population. AIM: In this study, we built a statistical model to provide insight into risk factors of unplanned readmissions in this pediatric oncology. METHODS: We retrieved 32 667 encounters from 10 418 pediatric patients with a neoplastic condition from 16 hospitals in the Cerner Health Facts Database and built a mixed-effects model with patients nested within hospitals for inference on 75% of the data and reserved the remaining as an independent test dataset. RESULTS: The mixed-effects model indicated that patients with acute lymphoid leukemia (in relapse), neuroblastoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, or bone/cartilage cancer have increased odds of readmission. The number of cancer medications taken by the patient and the administration of chemotherapy were associated with increased odds of readmission for all cancer types. Wilms Tumor had a significant interaction with administration of chemotherapy, indicating that the risk due to chemotherapy is exacerbated in patients with Wilms Tumor. A second two-way interaction between recent history of chemotherapy treatment and infections was associated with increased odds of readmission. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (and corresponding 95% confidence interval) of the mixed-effects model was 0.714 (0.702, 0.725) on the independent test dataset. CONCLUSION: Readmission risk in oncology is modified by the specific type of cancer, current and past administration of chemotherapy, and increased health care utilization. Oncology-specific models can provide decision support where model built on other or mixed population has failed.


Hospitals, Pediatric/statistics & numerical data , Neoplasms/therapy , Patient Readmission/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Child , Child, Preschool , Databases, Factual/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Logistic Models , Male , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Assessment/statistics & numerical data , Risk Factors
20.
J Clin Psychol Med Settings ; 28(4): 757-770, 2021 12.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33564959

This research examined whether pediatric inpatients without an anxiety/mood disorder are more likely to receive opioids in response to pain compared to patients diagnosed with a mental health condition. Research questions were tested using cross-sectional inpatient electronic medical record data. Propensity score matching was used to match patients with a disorder with patients without the disorder (anxiety analyses: N = 2892; mood analyses: N = 1042). Although patients with anxiety and mood disorders experienced greater pain, physicians were less likely to order opioids for these patients. Analyses also disclosed an interaction of anxiety with pain-the pain-opioid relation was stronger for patients without an anxiety disorder than for patients with an anxiety diagnosis. Instead, physicians were more likely to place non-opioid analgesic orders to manage the pain of patients with anxiety disorders. Findings imply that pain management decisions might be influenced by patient's mental health.


Analgesics, Opioid , Physicians , Analgesics, Opioid/therapeutic use , Anxiety , Anxiety Disorders/complications , Anxiety Disorders/drug therapy , Child , Cross-Sectional Studies , Hospitals, Pediatric , Humans , Mood Disorders/drug therapy , Practice Patterns, Physicians'
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