Grading disorder severity and averted burden by access to treatment within the GBD framework: a case study with anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimates burden by cause with major relevance for resource allocators globally. Non-fatal burden estimates are influenced by disorder severity. However, for many disorders, global severity is sourced from a single high-income country survey. We aimed to estimate severity distributions that vary by Healthcare Access Quality Index (HAQI) using anxiety disorders as a case study and present the usefulness of this method in simulating averted and avoidable burden globally. METHODS: In this case study, we estimated treatment use among respondents with anxiety disorder in the 1997 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (NSMHWB), the source used to estimate severity of anxiety disorders in GBD. Treatment effects were sourced from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and pooled via network meta-analysis. Severity distribution was established via a meta-regression of their disability weights, derived from 12-item short form survey scores. We simulated the shift in severity across scenarios without access to treatment and with full access to optimal treatment (cognitive behavioural therapy and antidepressants). We interpolated this shift linearly along the HAQI, extrapolated country-specific severity from HAQI scores, and calculated averted and avoidable burden. FINDINGS: The database review sourced 56 reviews, of which eight were eligible for inclusion. These eight reviews reported on 156 randomised controlled trials, with 194 treatment effects. Respondents to the 1997 NSMHWB consisted of 5936 women (55·8%) and 4705 (44·2%) men aged 18 years or older (mean age and ethnicity data not available). The survey-weighted treatment effect size was -0·28 (95% uncertainty interval -0·45 to -0·12). The pooled treatment effect for full coverage optimal treatment was -1·07 (-1·47 to -0·64). The sequela-weighted disability weight among people with anxiety disorder in the NSMHWB was 0·141 (0·042 to 0·275). The estimated disability weight was 0·188 (0·070 to 0·341) after removing the benefits of treatment and 0·056 (0·013 to 0·140) after providing all people with anxiety disorder access to optimal treatment. Globally, 12·5% (4·6 to 21·5) of anxiety disorder burden was averted because of available treatment. However, 71·1% (46·2 to 87·6) of global anxiety disorder burden could be averted if all people with anxiety disorders had access to optimal treatment. INTERPRETATION: Because it is based on guidance from a single survey done in one high-income country, the burden of anxiety disorders in low-income and middle-income countries is probably underestimated by GBD. Despite the availability of effective treatments, low use of these treatments means that most burden is still avoidable. Most of the burden could be averted if all people with anxiety disorders had access to optimal treatment, highlighting the importance of public promotion and referral pathways of treatment for anxiety disorders. Location-specific severity distributions in GBD would greatly increase precision in burden estimates and highlight avertable burden to clinicians, public health practitioners, and policy makers. FUNDING: Queensland Health and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0) in an urban Indigenous Australian sample.

OBJECTIVE: The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 is a standardised diagnostic interview commonly used in population-based mental health surveys, but has not been used in community-residing Indigenous Australians. This paper seeks to determine whether the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 can produce valid diagnostic information when compared with a diagnostic interview in an urban Indigenous Australian sample. METHOD: This research was conducted over 10 weeks with adult Indigenous clients of two participating Aboriginal Medical Services in South-East Queensland. Using a cross-sectional, repeated-measures design, participants were administered the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 by an Indigenous interviewer and within 2 weeks attended a second appointment with an Indigenous clinical psychologist, who produced a diagnostic summary. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 diagnoses were compared with the diagnostic summaries and clinical concordance between the two measures was calculated. RESULTS: The diagnostic accuracy of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 differed by module. The Post-traumatic Stress Disorder and Major Depression modules had good utility in diagnosing post-traumatic stress disorder and major depressive episodes, respectively; however, the Mania module that provides diagnoses of bipolar disorder was found to be unsuitable for this population. Although there were no identified contraindications for the use of the Generalised Anxiety and Alcohol Use Disorder modules, further research on the diagnostic accuracy of these modules is warranted. CONCLUSIONS: The Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 can accurately diagnose some common mental disorders in an Indigenous Australian population, but was found to be unsuitable for others. Given these findings, care should be taken when using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 in epidemiological prevalence studies with Indigenous Australian populations.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk.

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Excess mortality in severe mental disorders: A systematic review and meta-regression.

The excess mortality observed in people with severe mental disorders (SMD) has not improved over time and is not captured in estimates of disease burden. This study aimed to improve upon previous analytic approaches to account for potential sources of heterogeneity in pooled mortality estimates. A systematic review of studies examining excess mortality in people with psychotic disorders and bipolar disorder was conducted. PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO were searched from January 1, 1980 to 31/12/20. Studies were eligible if they were longitudinal; the study population was diagnosed according to established criteria, not restricted to subgroups and the disorder was primary and not acute or transient; and mortality was reported in comparison to the general population or a control group without SMD. Meta-regression models were used to calculate pooled relative risks (RRs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality adjusted for study- and population-level covariates. Risk of bias was assessed using an adaptation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A total of 76 studies were included in the analyses. Covariates incorporated into the final models included age, sex, population type and mid-year. The adjusted RR for all-cause mortality in schizophrenia was 2.89 (95% CI 2.50 to 3.34) and 2.51 (95%CI 2.10 to 3.00) for bipolar disorder. There were larger RRs for broader categories of psychotic disorders. Mortality was elevated in each cause of death examined. Most of the heterogeneity between studies could not be accounted for. Future research should investigate underlying causal pathways and find ways to incorporate the excess mortality associated with SMD into global health estimates.

The global gap in treatment coverage for major depressive disorder in 84 countries from 2000-2019: A systematic review and Bayesian meta-regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: The treatment coverage for major depressive disorder (MDD) is low in many parts of the world despite MDD being a major contributor to disability globally. Most existing reviews of MDD treatment coverage do not account for potential sources of study-level heterogeneity that contribute to variation in reported treatment rates. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the evidence and analytically quantify sources of heterogeneity to report updated estimates of MDD treatment coverage and gaps by location and treatment type between 2000 and 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify relevant studies that provided data on treatment rates for MDD between January 1, 2000, and November 26, 2021, from 2 online scholarly databases PubMed and Embase. Cohort and cross-sectional studies were included if treatment rates pertaining to the last 12 months or less were reported directly or if sufficient information was available to calculate this along with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Studies were included if they made use of population-based surveys that were representative of communities, countries, or regions under study. Studies were included if they used established diagnostic criteria to diagnose cases of MDD. Sample and methodological characteristics were extracted from selected studies. Treatment rates were modeled using a Bayesian meta-regression approach and adjusted for select covariates that quantified heterogeneity in the data. These covariates included age, sex, treatment type, location, and choice of MDD assessment tool. A total of 149 studies were included for quantitative analysis. Treatment coverage for health service use ranged from 51% [95% UI 20%, 82%] in high-income locations to 20% [95% UI 1%, 53%] in low- and lower middle-income locations. Treatment coverage for mental health service use ranged from 33% [95% UI 8%, 66%] in high-income locations to 8% [95% UI <1%, 36%] in low- and lower middle-income countries. Minimally adequate treatment (MAT) rates ranged from 23% [95% UI 2%, 55%] in high-income countries to 3% [95% UI <1%, 25%]) in low- and lower middle-income countries. A primary methodological limitation was the lack of sufficient data from low- and lower middle-income countries, which precluded our ability to provide more detailed treatment rate estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that the treatment coverage for MDD continues to be low in many parts of the world and in particular in low- and lower middle-income countries. There is a continued need for routine data collection that will help obtain more accurate estimates of treatment coverage globally.

The hidden burden of eating disorders: an extension of estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa are the only eating disorders included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, yet binge-eating disorder and other specified feeding or eating disorder (OSFED) are more prevalent. This study sought to estimate the prevalence and burden of binge-eating disorder and OSFED globally and present a case for their inclusion in GBD. METHODS: We sourced studies from the GBD 2019 anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa epidemiological databases, two systematic reviews that included studies with epidemiological estimates of binge-eating disorder and OSFED, and experts in the field. Studies, published between Jan 1, 1998, and March 1, 2019, were included if they reported non-zero prevalence of two or more eating disorders (anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge-eating disorder, or OSFED) and diagnosed cases according to DSM-IV or DSM-5. The proportions of total eating disorder cases that met diagnostic criteria for each individual eating disorder were estimated via network meta-regression and simulation using studies reporting eating disorder prevalence. The global cases unrepresented in GBD 2019 were estimated using the proportions from the simulation and the GBD 2019 eating disorder prevalence. Disability weights for binge-eating disorder and OSFED were then estimated along with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: 54 studies, of which 36 were from high-income countries, were included in the analysis. The number of global eating disorder cases in 2019 that were unrepresented in GBD 2019 was 41·9 million (95% UI 27·9-59·0), and consisted of 17·3 million (11·3-24·9) people with binge-eating disorder and 24·6 million (14·7-39·7) people with OSFED (vs 13·6 million [10·2-17·5] people with eating disorders in GBD 2019). Together, binge-eating disorder and OSFED caused 3·7 million (95% UI 2·0-6·5) DALYs globally, bringing the total eating disorder DALYs to 6·6 million (3·8-10·6) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: Binge-eating disorder and OSFED accounted for the majority of eating disorder cases and DALYs globally. These findings warrant the inclusion of binge-eating disorder and OSFED in future iterations of GBD, which will bring the burden experienced by people living with these disorders to the attention of policy makers with the means to target this burden. FUNDING: Queensland Health, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders: a nationwide, register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews have consistently shown that individuals with mental disorders have an increased risk of premature mortality. Traditionally, this evidence has been based on relative risks or crude estimates of reduced life expectancy. The aim of this study was to compile a comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders, including sex-specific and age-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and life-years lost (LYLs), a measure that takes into account age of onset of the disorder. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included all people younger than 95 years of age who lived in Denmark at some point between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2015. Information on mental disorders was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and the date and cause of death was obtained from the Danish Register of Causes of Death. We classified mental disorders into ten groups and causes of death into 11 groups, which were further categorised into natural causes (deaths from diseases and medical conditions) and external causes (suicide, homicide, and accidents). For each specific mental disorder, we estimated MRRs using Poisson regression models, adjusting for sex, age, and calendar time, and excess LYLs (ie, difference in LYLs between people with a mental disorder and the general population) for all-cause mortality and for each specific cause of death. FINDINGS: 7 369 926 people were included in our analysis. We found that mortality rates were higher for people with a diagnosis of a mental disorder than for the general Danish population (28·70 deaths [95% CI 28·57-28·82] vs 12·95 deaths [12·93-12·98] per 1000 person-years). Additionally, all types of disorders were associated with higher mortality rates, with MRRs ranging from 1·92 (95% CI 1·91-1·94) for mood disorders to 3·91 (3·87-3·94) for substance use disorders. All types of mental disorders were associated with shorter life expectancies, with excess LYLs ranging from 5·42 years (95% CI 5·36-5·48) for organic disorders in females to 14·84 years (14·70-14·99) for substance use disorders in males. When we examined specific causes of death, we found that males with any type of mental disorder lost fewer years due to neoplasm-related deaths compared with the general population, although their cancer mortality rates were higher. INTERPRETATION: Mental disorders are associated with premature mortality. We provide a comprehensive analysis of mortality by different types of disorders, presenting both MRRs and premature mortality based on LYLs, displayed by age, sex, and cause of death. By providing accurate estimates of premature mortality, we reveal previously underappreciated features related to competing risks and specific causes of death. FUNDING: Danish National Research Foundation.

Burden of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Although the burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be dominated by infectious diseases, countries in this region are undergoing a demographic transition leading to increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). To inform health system responses to these changing patterns of disease, we aimed to assess changes in the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to analyse the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)-with crude counts as well as all-age and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population-with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We examined changes in burden between 1990 and 2017, and differences across age, sex, and regions. We also compared the observed NCD burden across countries with the expected values based on a country's Socio-demographic Index. FINDINGS: All-age total DALYs due to NCDs increased by 67·0% between 1990 (90·6 million [95% UI 81·0-101·9]) and 2017 (151·3 million [133·4-171·8]), reflecting an increase in the proportion of total DALYs attributable to NCDs (from 18·6% [95% UI 17·1-20·4] to 29·8% [27·6-32·0] of the total burden). Although most of this increase can be explained by population growth and ageing, the age-standardised DALY rate (per 100 000 population) due to NCDs in 2017 (21 757·7 DALYs [95% UI 19 377·1-24 380·7]) was almost equivalent to that of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (26 491·6 DALYs [25 165·2-28 129·8]). Cardiovascular diseases were the second leading cause of NCD burden in 2017, resulting in 22·9 million (21·5-24·3) DALYs (15·1% of the total NCD burden), after the group of disorders categorised as other NCDs (28·8 million [25·1-33·0] DALYs, 19·1%). These categories were followed by neoplasms, mental disorders, and digestive diseases. Although crude DALY rates for all NCDs have decreased slightly across sub-Saharan Africa, age-standardised rates are on the rise in some countries (particularly those in southern sub-Saharan Africa) and for some NCDs (such as diabetes and some cancers, including breast and prostate cancer). INTERPRETATION: NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa are posing an increasing challenge for health systems, which have to date largely focused on tackling infectious diseases and maternal, neonatal, and child deaths. To effectively address these changing needs, countries in sub-Saharan Africa require detailed epidemiological data on NCDs. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Centre (Australia).

Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study.

Importance: Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. Objective: To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. Exposures: Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Results: Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.

Global Epidemiology and Burden of Schizophrenia: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Introduction: The global burden of disease (GBD) studies have derived detailed and comparable epidemiological and burden of disease estimates for schizophrenia. We report GBD 2016 estimates of schizophrenia prevalence and burden of disease with disaggregation by age, sex, year, and for all countries. Method: We conducted a systematic review to identify studies reporting the prevalence, incidence, remission, and/or excess mortality associated with schizophrenia. Reported estimates which met our inclusion criteria were entered into a Bayesian meta-regression tool used in GBD 2016 to derive prevalence for 20 age groups, 7 super-regions, 21 regions, and 195 countries and territories. Burden of disease estimates were derived for acute and residual states of schizophrenia by multiplying the age-, sex-, year-, and location-specific prevalence by 2 disability weights representative of the disability experienced during these states. Findings: The systematic review found a total of 129 individual data sources. The global age-standardized point prevalence of schizophrenia in 2016 was estimated to be 0.28% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.24-0.31). No sex differences were observed in prevalence. Age-standardized point prevalence rates did not vary widely across countries or regions. Globally, prevalent cases rose from 13.1 (95% UI: 11.6-14.8) million in 1990 to 20.9 (95% UI: 18.5-23.4) million cases in 2016. Schizophrenia contributes 13.4 (95% UI: 9.9-16.7) million years of life lived with disability to burden of disease globally. Conclusion: Although schizophrenia is a low prevalence disorder, the burden of disease is substantial. Our modeling suggests that significant population growth and aging has led to a large and increasing disease burden attributable to schizophrenia, particularly for middle income countries.

Global statistics on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use: 2017 status report.

AIMS: This review provides an up-to-date curated source of information on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use and their associated mortality and burden of disease. Limitations in the data are also discussed, including how these can be addressed in the future. METHODS: Online data sources were identified through expert review. Data were obtained mainly from the World Health Organization, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. RESULTS: In 2015, the estimated prevalence among the adult population was 18.4% for heavy episodic alcohol use (in the past 30 days); 15.2% for daily tobacco smoking; and 3.8, 0.77, 0.37 and 0.35% for past-year cannabis, amphetamine, opioid and cocaine use, respectively. European regions had the highest prevalence of heavy episodic alcohol use and daily tobacco use. The age-standardized prevalence of alcohol dependence was 843.2 per 100 000 people; for cannabis, opioids, amphetamines and cocaine dependence it was 259.3, 220.4, 86.0 and 52.5 per 100 000 people, respectively. High-income North America region had among the highest rates of cannabis, opioid and cocaine dependence. Attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were highest for tobacco smoking (170.9 million DALYs), followed by alcohol (85.0 million) and illicit drugs (27.8 million). Substance-attributable mortality rates were highest for tobacco smoking (110.7 deaths per 100 000 people), followed by alcohol and illicit drugs (33.0 and 6.9 deaths per 100 000 people, respectively). Attributable age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs for alcohol and illicit drugs were highest in eastern Europe; attributable age-standardized tobacco mortality rates and DALYs were highest in Oceania. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015 alcohol use and tobacco smoking use between them cost the human population more than a quarter of a billion disability-adjusted life years, with illicit drugs costing further tens of millions. Europeans suffered proportionately more, but in absolute terms the mortality rate was greatest in low- and middle-income countries with large populations and where the quality of data was more limited. Better standardized and rigorous methods for data collection, collation and reporting are needed to assess more accurately the geographical and temporal trends in substance use and its disease burden.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.

The prevalence and burden of mental and substance use disorders in Australia: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

OBJECTIVES: Timely and accurate assessments of disease burden are essential for developing effective national health policies. We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 to examine burden due to mental and substance use disorders in Australia. METHODS: For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, systematic reviews of epidemiological data were conducted, and data modelled using a Bayesian meta-regression tool to produce prevalence estimates by age, sex, geography and year. Prevalence for each disorder was then combined with a disorder-specific disability weight to give years lived with disability, as a measure of non-fatal burden. Fatal burden was measured as years of life lost due to premature mortality which were calculated by combining the number of deaths due to a disorder with the life expectancy remaining at the time of death. Disability-adjusted life years were calculated by summing years lived with disability and years of life lost to give a measure of total burden. Uncertainty was calculated around all burden estimates. RESULTS: Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of non-fatal burden in Australia in 2015, explaining 24.3% of total years lived with disability, and were the second leading cause of total burden, accounting for 14.6% of total disability-adjusted life years. There was no significant change in the age-standardised disability-adjusted life year rates for mental and substance use disorders from 1990 to 2015. CONCLUSION: Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 found that mental and substance use disorders were leading contributors to disease burden in Australia. Despite several decades of national reform, the burden of mental and substance use disorders remained largely unchanged between 1990 and 2015. To reduce this burden, effective population-level preventions strategies are required in addition to effective interventions of sufficient duration and coverage.

Global Skin Disease Morbidity and Mortality: An Update From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Importance: Disability secondary to skin conditions is substantial worldwide. The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 includes estimates of global morbidity and mortality due to skin diseases. Objective: To measure the burden of skin diseases worldwide. Data Sources: For nonfatal estimates, data were found by literature search using PubMed and Google Scholar in English and Spanish for years 1980 through 2013 and by accessing administrative data on hospital inpatient and outpatient episodes. Data for fatal estimates were based on vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Study Selection: Skin disease data were extracted from more than 4000 sources including systematic reviews, surveys, population-based disease registries, hospital inpatient data, outpatient data, cohort studies, and autopsy data. Data metrics included incidence, prevalence, remission, duration, severity, deaths, and mortality risk. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Data were extracted by age, time period, case definitions, and other study characteristics. Data points were modeled with Bayesian meta-regression to generate estimates of morbidity and mortality metrics for skin diseases. All estimates were made with 95% uncertainty intervals. Main Outcomes and Measures: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability, and years of life lost from 15 skin conditions in 188 countries. Results: Skin conditions contributed 1.79% to the global burden of disease measured in DALYs from 306 diseases and injuries in 2013. Individual skin diseases varied in size from 0.38% of total burden for dermatitis (atopic, contact, and seborrheic dermatitis), 0.29% for acne vulgaris, 0.19% for psoriasis, 0.19% for urticaria, 0.16% for viral skin diseases, 0.15% for fungal skin diseases, 0.07% for scabies, 0.06% for malignant skin melanoma, 0.05% for pyoderma, 0.04% for cellulitis, 0.03% for keratinocyte carcinoma, 0.03% for decubitus ulcer, and 0.01% for alopecia areata. All other skin and subcutaneous diseases composed 0.12% of total DALYs. Conclusions and Relevance: Skin and subcutaneous diseases were the 18th leading cause of global DALYs in Global Burden of Disease 2013. Excluding mortality, skin diseases were the fourth leading cause of disability worldwide.

Long-Term Outcomes of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Conduct Disorder: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) are common externalizing disorders. Despite previous research demonstrating that both are longitudinally associated with adverse outcomes, there have been no systematic reviews examining all of the available evidence linking ADHD and CD with a range of health and psychosocial outcomes. METHOD: Electronic databases (EMBASE, Medline, and PsycINFO) were searched for studies published from 1980 up to March 2015. Published cohort and case-control studies were included if they reported a longitudinal association between ADHD or CD and adverse outcomes with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. Outcomes with sufficient data were pooled in a random effects meta-analysis to give overall odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of the 278 studies assessed, 114 met inclusion criteria and 98 were used in subsequent meta-analyses. ADHD was associated with adverse outcomes including academic achievement (e.g. failure to complete high school; odds ratio [OR] = 3.7, 95% CIs 2.0-7.0), other mental and substance use disorders (e.g. depression; OR = 2.3, 1.5-3.7), criminality (e.g. arrest; OR = 2.4, 1.5-3.8), and employment (e.g., unemployment; OR = 2.0, 1.0-3.9). CD was associated with outcomes relating to academic achievement (e.g. failure to complete high school; OR = 2.7, 1.5-4.7), other mental and substance use disorders (e.g., illicit drug use; OR = 2.1, 1.7-2.6), and criminality (e.g. violence; OR = 3.5, 2.3-5.3). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that ADHD and CD are associated with disability beyond immediate health loss. Although the analyses could not determine the mechanisms behind these longitudinal associations, they demonstrate the importance of addressing ADHD and CD early in life so as to potentially avert a wide range of future adverse outcomes.

Prevalence of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders in China and India: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Population-representative prevalence data for mental, neurological, and substance use disorders are essential for evidence-based decision making. As a background to the China-India Mental Health Alliance Series, we aim to examine the availability of data and report prevalence for the most common mental, neurological, and substance use disorders in China and India from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013 (GBD 2013). METHODS: In this systematic analysis, data sources were identified from GBD 2013 for the prevalence of mental, neurological, and substance use disorders in China and India published up to Dec 31, 2013. We calculated the proportion of the population represented by the data with the adjusted population coverage (APC) method adjusting for age, sex, and population size. We developed prevalence models with DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian meta-regression instrument used to pool population-representative epidemiological data as part of GBD 2013. We report estimates and 95% uncertainly intervals (95% UI) for 15 mental, neurological, and substance use disorders for China and India in 1990 and 2013, and benchmark these against those for other BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) in 2013. FINDINGS: Few population-representative data were found for the disorders, with an average coverage of 15% of the population of the Chinese mainland and 1% of the population of India. For men in both China and India, major depressive disorder, anxiety disorders, and alcohol dependence were the most common mental, neurological, and substance use disorders. Prevalence of major depressive disorder was 2·2% (95% UI 1·5-2·8) in Chinese men and 3·5% (2·4-4·6) in Indian men; prevalence of anxiety disorders was 2·0% (1·1-3·2) and 1·9% (1·2-2·3), respectively. For women, anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, and dysthymia were the most common. Prevalence of major depressive disorder was 3·3% (2·3-4·1) in Chinese women and 4·7% (95% UI 3·3-6·2) in Indian women; prevalence of anxiety disorders was 3·3% (1·6-5·3) and 4·1% (3·3-5·0), respectively. Schizophrenia was more prevalent in China (0·5%, 95% UI 0·4-0·5) than in India (0·2%; 0·2-0·2). INTERPRETATION: More data for mental, neurological, and substance use disorders are needed for India and China but the large population and geographic scale of these countries present challenges to population-representative data collection. FUNDING: China-India Mental Health Alliance, China Medical Board.

Systematic review of interventions for Indigenous adults with mental and substance use disorders in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to systematically review the evidence-base for the effectiveness of culturally unadapted, culturally adapted and culture-based interventions for Indigenous adults with mental or substance use disorders. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search of scientific databases, government websites and web-based Indigenous research repositories. We sought studies using designs comparing an intervention group to a control/comparator group or pre- and post-test designs, published between 2000 and 2015 examining interventions to improve individual-level outcomes (e.g. remission, symptoms, quality of life, functioning) or service-level outcomes (e.g. number of interventions delivered) for Indigenous adults with mental or substance use disorders in Australia, Canada, New Zealand or the United States. RESULTS: A total of 16 studies met inclusion criteria. Virtually all North American studies (6 US and 1 Canadian) evaluated culturally unadapted interventions, all of which were interventions for substance use. Two-thirds of Australian and New Zealand studies evaluated culturally adapted interventions and included samples with mental disorders. Of eight culturally unadapted psychological/psychosocial, pharmacological and educational intervention studies, seven reported significant improvements on at least one measure of psychological well-being, mental health problem severity, or significantly reduced alcohol or illicit drug use. Of seven culturally adapted psychological/psychosocial intervention studies, all reported significant improvement on at least one measure of symptoms of mental illness, functioning, and alcohol use. One culture-based psychological/psychosocial intervention study significantly reduced problem severity in medical and psychiatric domains. CONCLUSION: There remains inconclusive evidence regarding interventions due to a small and methodologically weak evidence-base. The literature would be enhanced by intervention replication and outcome standardisation, validating the outcome instruments used in Indigenous populations, including sample size calculations and using stronger research designs (e.g. interrupted time-series designs). Robust implementation and outcomes research is needed to further progress evidence-based practice in Indigenous mental health.

The prevalence and burden of bipolar disorder: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

OBJECTIVES: We present the global burden of bipolar disorder based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013). METHODS: Data on the epidemiology of bipolar disorder were obtained from a systematic literature review and assembled using Bayesian meta-regression modelling to produce prevalence by country, age, sex and year. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights quantifying the severity of the health loss associated with bipolar disorder. As there were no years of life lost (YLLs) attributed to bipolar disorder, YLDs equated to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as a measure of total burden. RESULTS: There were 32.7 million cases of bipolar disorder globally in 1990 and 48.8 million in 2013; equivalent to a 49.1% increase in prevalent cases, all accounted for by population increase and ageing. Bipolar disorder accounted for 9.9 million DALYs in 2013, explaining 0.4% of total DALYs and 1.3% of total YLDs. There were 5.5 million DALYs recorded for female individuals and 4.4 million for male individuals. DALYs were evident from age 10 years, peaked in the 20s, and decreased thereafter. DALYs were relatively constant geographically. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being relatively rare, bipolar disorder is a disabling illness due to its early onset, severity and chronicity. Population growth and aging are leading to an increase in the burden of bipolar disorder over time. It is important that resources be directed towards improving the coverage of evidence-based intervention strategies for bipolar disorder and establishing strategies to prevent new cases of the disorder.