Opportunities to grow tribal clean energy in the US.

Bold action is needed to address unmanageable time scales, limited access to information, and a need to build capacity.

Long-term elevated precipitation induces grassland soil carbon loss via microbe-plant-soil interplay.

Global climate models predict that the frequency and intensity of precipitation events will increase in many regions across the world. However, the biosphere-climate feedback to elevated precipitation (eP) remains elusive. Here, we report a study on one of the longest field experiments assessing the effects of eP, alone or in combination with other climate change drivers such as elevated CO2 (eCO2 ), warming and nitrogen deposition. Soil total carbon (C) decreased after a decade of eP treatment, while plant root production decreased after 2 years. To explain this asynchrony, we found that the relative abundances of fungal genes associated with chitin and protein degradation increased and were positively correlated with bacteriophage genes, suggesting a potential viral shunt in C degradation. In addition, eP increased the relative abundances of microbial stress tolerance genes, which are essential for coping with environmental stressors. Microbial responses to eP were phylogenetically conserved. The effects of eP on soil total C, root production, and microbes were interactively affected by eCO2 . Collectively, we demonstrate that long-term eP induces soil C loss, owing to changes in microbial community composition, functional traits, root production, and soil moisture. Our study unveils an important, previously unknown biosphere-climate feedback in Mediterranean-type water-limited ecosystems, namely how eP induces soil C loss via microbe-plant-soil interplay.

The magnitude and pace of photosynthetic recovery after wildfire in California ecosystems.

Wildfire modifies the short- and long-term exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, with impacts on ecosystem services such as carbon uptake. Dry western US forests historically experienced low-intensity, frequent fires, with patches across the landscape occupying different points in the fire-recovery trajectory. Contemporary perturbations, such as recent severe fires in California, could shift the historic stand-age distribution and impact the legacy of carbon uptake on the landscape. Here, we combine flux measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and chronosequence analysis using satellite remote sensing to investigate how the last century of fires in California impacted the dynamics of ecosystem carbon uptake on the fire-affected landscape. A GPP recovery trajectory curve of more than five thousand fires in forest ecosystems since 1919 indicated that fire reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text]([Formula: see text]) in the first year after fire, with average recovery to prefire conditions after [Formula: see text] y. The largest fires in forested ecosystems reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text] (n = 401) and took more than two decades to recover. Recent increases in fire severity and recovery time have led to nearly [Formula: see text] MMT CO[Formula: see text] (3-y rolling mean) in cumulative forgone carbon uptake due to the legacy of fires on the landscape, complicating the challenge of maintaining California's natural and working lands as a net carbon sink. Understanding these changes is paramount to weighing the costs and benefits associated with fuels management and ecosystem management for climate change mitigation.

Low-elevation conifers in California's Sierra Nevada are out of equilibrium with climate.

Since the 1930s, California's Sierra Nevada has warmed by an average of 1.2 ∘ C. Warming directly primes forests for easier wildfire ignition, but the change in climate also affects vegetation species composition. Different types of vegetation support unique fire regimes with distinct probabilities of catastrophic wildfire, and anticipating vegetation transitions is an important but undervalued component of long-term wildfire management and adaptation. Vegetation transitions are more likely where the climate has become unsuitable but the species composition remains static. This vegetation climate mismatch (VCM) can result in vegetation conversions, particularly after a disturbance like wildfire. Here we produce estimates of VCM within conifer-dominated forests in the Sierra Nevada. Observations from the 1930s Wieslander Survey provide a foundation for characterizing the historical relationship between Sierra Nevada vegetation and climate before the onset of recent, rapid climate change. Based on comparing the historical climatic niche to the modern distribution of conifers and climate, ∼19.5% of modern Sierra Nevada coniferous forests are experiencing VCM, 95% of which is below an elevation of 2356 m. We found that these VCM estimates carry empirical consequences: likelihood of type-conversion increased by 9.2% for every 10% decrease in habitat suitability. Maps of Sierra Nevada VCM can help guide long-term land management decisions by distinguishing areas likely to transition from those expected to remain stable in the near future. This can help direct limited resources to their most effective uses-whether it be protecting land or managing vegetation transitions-in the effort to maintain biodiversity, ecosystem services, and public health in the Sierra Nevada.

Long-term nitrogen deposition enhances microbial capacities in soil carbon stabilization but reduces network complexity.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic activities have increased the inputs of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N) into terrestrial ecosystems, affecting soil carbon stability and microbial communities. Previous studies have primarily examined the effects of nitrogen deposition on microbial taxonomy, enzymatic activities, and functional processes. Here, we examined various functional traits of soil microbial communities and how these traits are interrelated in a Mediterranean-type grassland administrated with 14 years of 7 g m-2 year-1 of N amendment, based on estimated atmospheric N deposition in areas within California, USA, by the end of the twenty-first century. RESULTS: Soil microbial communities were significantly altered by N deposition. Consistent with higher aboveground plant biomass and litter, fast-growing bacteria, assessed by abundance-weighted average rRNA operon copy number, were favored in N deposited soils. The relative abundances of genes associated with labile carbon (C) degradation (e.g., amyA and cda) were also increased. In contrast, the relative abundances of functional genes associated with the degradation of more recalcitrant C (e.g., mannanase and chitinase) were either unchanged or decreased. Compared with the ambient control, N deposition significantly reduced network complexity, such as average degree and connectedness. The network for N deposited samples contained only genes associated with C degradation, suggesting that C degradation genes became more intensely connected under N deposition. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a conceptual model to summarize the mechanisms of how changes in above- and belowground ecosystems by long-term N deposition collectively lead to more soil C accumulation. Video Abstract.

Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US.

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change.

The limiting factors and regulatory processes that control the environmental responses of C3, C3-C4 intermediate, and C4 photosynthesis.

Here, we describe a model of C3, C3-C4 intermediate, and C4 photosynthesis that is designed to facilitate quantitative analysis of physiological measurements. The model relates the factors limiting electron transport and carbon metabolism, the regulatory processes that coordinate these metabolic domains, and the responses to light, carbon dioxide, and temperature. It has three unique features. First, mechanistic expressions describe how the cytochrome b6f complex controls electron transport in mesophyll and bundle sheath chloroplasts. Second, the coupling between the mesophyll and bundle sheath expressions represents how feedback regulation of Cyt b6f coordinates electron transport and carbon metabolism. Third, the temperature sensitivity of Cyt b6f is differentiated from that of the coupling between NADPH, Fd, and ATP production. Using this model, we present simulations demonstrating that the light dependence of the carbon dioxide compensation point in C3-C4 leaves can be explained by co-occurrence of light saturation in the mesophyll and light limitation in the bundle sheath. We also present inversions demonstrating that population-level variation in the carbon dioxide compensation point in a Type I C3-C4 plant, Flaveria chloraefolia, can be explained by variable allocation of photosynthetic capacity to the bundle sheath. These results suggest that Type I C3-C4 intermediate plants adjust pigment and protein distributions to optimize the glycine shuttle under different light and temperature regimes, and that the malate and aspartate shuttles may have originally functioned to smooth out the energy supply and demand associated with the glycine shuttle. This model has a wide range of potential applications to physiological, ecological, and evolutionary questions.

Routing algorithms as tools for integrating social distancing with emergency evacuation.

One of the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic is the importance of social distancing, even in challenging circumstances such as pre-hurricane evacuation. To explore the implications of integrating social distancing with evacuation operations, we describe this evacuation process as a Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) and solve it using a DNN (Deep Neural Network)-based solution (Deep Reinforcement Learning) and a non-DNN solution (Sweep Algorithm). A central question is whether Deep Reinforcement Learning provides sufficient extra routing efficiency to accommodate increased social distancing in a time-constrained evacuation operation. We found that, in comparison to the Sweep Algorithm, Deep Reinforcement Learning can provide decision-makers with more efficient routing. However, the evacuation time saved by Deep Reinforcement Learning does not come close to compensating for the extra time required for social distancing, and its advantage disappears as the emergency vehicle capacity approaches the number of people per household.

An Ecosystem-Scale Flux Measurement Strategy to Assess Natural Climate Solutions.

Eddy covariance measurement systems provide direct observation of the exchange of greenhouse gases between ecosystems and the atmosphere, but have only occasionally been intentionally applied to quantify the carbon dynamics associated with specific climate mitigation strategies. Natural climate solutions (NCS) harness the photosynthetic power of ecosystems to avoid emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering it in biological carbon pools. In this perspective, we aim to determine which kinds of NCS strategies are most suitable for ecosystem-scale flux measurements and how these measurements should be deployed for diverse NCS scales and goals. We find that ecosystem-scale flux measurements bring unique value when assessing NCS strategies characterized by inaccessible and hard-to-observe carbon pool changes, important non-CO2 greenhouse gas fluxes, the potential for biophysical impacts, or dynamic successional changes. We propose three deployment types for ecosystem-scale flux measurements at various NCS scales to constrain wide uncertainties and chart a workable path forward: "pilot", "upscale", and "monitor". Together, the integration of ecosystem-scale flux measurements by the NCS community and the prioritization of NCS measurements by the flux community, have the potential to improve accounting in ways that capture the net impacts, unintended feedbacks, and on-the-ground specifics of a wide range of emerging NCS strategies.

Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict.

The potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate-conflict linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision-making, and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage climate-conflict links. The implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time.

Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests.

Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.

Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions.

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

The future of bioenergy.

Energy from biomass plays a large and growing role in the global energy system. Energy from biomass can make significant contributions to reducing carbon emissions, especially from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors like aviation, heavy transport, and manufacturing. But land-intensive bioenergy often entails substantial carbon emissions from land-use change as well as production, harvesting, and transportation. In addition, land-intensive bioenergy scales only with the utilization of vast amounts of land, a resource that is fundamentally limited in supply. Because of the land constraint, the intrinsically low yields of energy per unit of land area, and rapid technological progress in competing technologies, land intensive bioenergy makes the most sense as a transitional element of the global energy mix, playing an important role over the next few decades and then fading, probably after mid-century. Managing an effective trajectory for land-intensive bioenergy will require an unusual mix of policies and incentives that encourage appropriate utilization in the short term but minimize lock-in in the longer term.

Fire affects the taxonomic and functional composition of soil microbial communities, with cascading effects on grassland ecosystem functioning.

Fire is a crucial event regulating the structure and functioning of many ecosystems. Yet few studies have focused on how fire affects taxonomic and functional diversities of soil microbial communities, along with changes in plant communities and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. Here, we analyze these effects in a grassland ecosystem 9 months after an experimental fire at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment site in California, USA. Fire altered soil microbial communities considerably, with community assembly process analysis showing that environmental selection pressure was higher in burned sites. However, a small subset of highly connected taxa was able to withstand the disturbance. In addition, fire decreased the relative abundances of most functional genes associated with C degradation and N cycling, implicating a slowdown of microbial processes linked to soil C and N dynamics. In contrast, fire stimulated above- and belowground plant growth, likely enhancing plant-microbe competition for soil inorganic N, which was reduced by a factor of about 2. To synthesize those findings, we performed structural equation modeling, which showed that plants but not microbial communities were responsible for significantly higher soil respiration rates in burned sites. Together, our results demonstrate that fire 'reboots' the grassland ecosystem by differentially regulating plant and soil microbial communities, leading to significant changes in soil C and N dynamics.

Managed retreat through voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties.

Retreat from some areas will become unavoidable under intensifying climate change. Existing deployments of managed retreat are at small scale compared to potential future needs, leaving open questions about where, when, and how retreat under climate change will occur. Here, we analyze more than 40,000 voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties in the United States, in which homeowners sell properties to the government and the land is restored to open space. In contrast to model-based evaluation of potential future retreat, local governments in counties with higher population and income are more likely to administer buyouts. The bought-out properties themselves, however, are concentrated in areas of greater social vulnerability within these counties, pointing to the importance of assessing the equity of buyout implementation and outcomes. These patterns demonstrate the challenges associated with locally driven implementation of managed retreat and the potential benefits of experimentation with different approaches to retreat.

Terrestrial gross primary production: Using NIRV to scale from site to globe.

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the largest and one of the most uncertain fluxes in the global carbon cycle. We find that near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV ), a remotely sensed measure of canopy structure, accurately predicts photosynthesis at FLUXNET validation sites at monthly to annual timescales (R2  = 0.68), without the need for difficult to acquire information about environmental factors that constrain photosynthesis at short timescales. Scaling the relationship between gross primary production (GPP) and NIRV from FLUXNET eddy covariance sites, we estimate global annual terrestrial photosynthesis to be 147 Pg C/year (95% credible interval 131-163 Pg C/year), which falls between bottom-up GPP estimates and the top-down global constraint on GPP from oxygen isotopes. NIRV -derived estimates of GPP are systematically higher than existing bottom-up estimates, especially throughout the midlatitudes. Progress in improving estimated GPP from NIRV can come from improved cloud screening in satellite data and increased resolution of vegetation characteristics, especially details about plant photosynthetic pathway.