Independent external validation and comparison of existing pancreatic fistula risk scores after laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy with Bing's pancreaticojejunostomy.

BACKGROUND: The fistula risk score (FRS) is the widely acknowledged prediction model for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF). In addition, the alternative FRS (a-FRS) and updated alternative FRS (ua-FRS) have been developed. This study performed external validation and comparison of these 3 models in patients who underwent laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD) with Bing's pancreaticojejunostomy. METHODS: The FRS total points and predictive probabilities of a-FRS and ua-FRS were retrospectively calculated using patient data from a completed randomized controlled trial. Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and CR-POPF were defined according to the 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery criteria. The correlations of the 4 risk items of the FRS model with CR-POPF and POPF were analyzed and represented using the Cramer V coefficient. The performance of the 3 models was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plot and compared using the DeLong test. RESULTS: This study enrolled 200 patients. Pancreatic texture and pathology had discrimination for CR-POPF (Cramer V coefficient: 0.180 vs 0.167, respectively). Pancreatic duct diameter, pancreatic texture, and pathology had discrimination for POPF (Cramer V coefficient: 0.357 vs 0.322 vs 0.257, respectively). Only the calibration of a-FRS predicting CR-POPF was good. The differences among the AUC values of the FRS, a-FRS, and ua-FRS were not statistically significant (CR-POPF: 0.687 vs 0.701 vs 0.710, respectively; POPF: 0.733 vs 0.741 vs 0.750, respectively). After recalibrating, the ua-FRS got sufficient calibration, and the AUC was 0.713 for predicting CR-POPF. CONCLUSION: For LPD cases with Bing's pancreaticojejunostomy, the 3 models predicted POPF with better discrimination than predicting CR-POPF. The recalibrated ua-FRS had sufficient discrimination and calibration for predicting CR-POPF.

The role of cardiac remodeling associated with renal function in mediating cardiovascular event outcomes.

The potential impact of renal function-related cardiovascular remodeling on associated cardiovascular risk has not been previously investigated. Hence, we conducted multiple mediation analyses in the UK Biobank study to evaluate this association. Using multiple Cox models, we found lower renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate based on cystatin C, eGFR-cysC) was independently related to increased risks of various cardiovascular events and mortalities. Multivariable linear regression revealed a progressive relationship between declining eGFR-cysC and adverse left ventricular (LV) remodeling and impaired systolic function. In Cox models, larger LV volume, mass, as well as decreased systolic function, were significantly correlated with adverse events, particularly in heart failure. Mediation analyses showed that undesirable LV remodeling and cardiometabolic diseases were independent mediators. Our study explores the connections between reduced renal function and poor cardiovascular phenotypes, as well as their significant independent role in mediating renal function-cardiovascular outcome relationships.