Identifying the true drivers of abrupt changes in ecosystem state with a focus on time lags: Extreme precipitation can determine water quality in shallow lakes.

A better understanding of abrupt ecosystem changes is needed to improve prediction of future ecosystem states under climate change. Chronological analysis based on long-term monitoring data is an effective way to estimate the frequency and magnitude of abrupt ecosystem changes. In this study, we used abrupt-change detection to differentiate changes of algal community composition in two Japanese lakes and to identify the causes of long-term ecological transitions. Additionally, we focused on finding statistically significant relationships between abrupt changes to aid with factor analysis. To estimate the strengths of driver-response relationships underlying abrupt algal transitions, the timing of the algal transitions was compared to that of abrupt changes in climate and basin characteristics to identify any synchronicities between them. The timing of abrupt algal changes in the two study lakes corresponded most closely to that of heavy runoff events during the past 30-40 years. This strongly suggests that changes in the frequency of extreme events (e.g., heavy rain, prolonged drought) have a greater effect on lake chemistry and community composition than do shifts in the means of climate and basin factors. Our analysis of synchronicity (with a focus on time lags) could provide an easy method to identify better adaptative strategies for future climate change.

Radiocesium accumulation in Lake Kasumigaura by riverine input and migration following the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident.

Vertical radiocesium concentration profiles and inventories in sediments were measured in Lake Kasumigaura following the 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Further measurements of radiocesium concentrations in suspended solids (SS) have been conducted since September 2012 in the Koise and Sakura rivers inflowing into the lake. Cesium-137 (137Cs) accumulated intensively near the inflow outlets in the lake. At the lake center, the 137Cs inventory in sediments increased during 2011-2014; however, few changes were observed during 2014-2016. The 137Cs surface concentration and inventory decreased considerably in Tsuchiura-iri Bay until 3 years after the accident, indicating 137Cs migration. However, the rate of decrease subsequently slowed due to the 137Cs supply from the river. The 137Cs concentration in river SS declined during 2012-2015; however, it remained 1-2 orders of magnitude above its pre-accident level. The entrainment coefficient of particulate 137Cs in the inflows was initially higher in the Koise River but decreased exponentially more rapidly in the Koise River than in the Sakura River until 2015. Therefore, in the future, the difference in 137Cs concentrations will be smaller. The 137Cs concentration in the Koise River will continue to decrease; thus, the difference in the 137Cs inventory between the northern and southern parts of the lake will decrease. Total estimated amounts of 137Cs in the entire lake were 3.72 × 1012 Bq in December 2012 and 4.18 × 1012 Bq in August 2016. The accumulated amount of 137Cs in the entire lake based on sediment analysis was similar to the riverine input of particulate 137Cs based on riverine SS analysis from December 2012‒;August 2016, confirming the high trapping performance of the lake for particulate matter provided by the basin. Moreover, the amount of 137Cs accumulated in the lake in 2016 may have originated from comparable rates of atmospheric deposition and riverine input. These findings provide useful insights for future prediction and management of radiocesium contamination and the effects of riverine inputs in general shallow lakes.

Quantitative assessment of decadal water temperature changes in Lake Kasumigaura, a shallow turbid lake, using a one-dimensional model.

To assess the decadal water temperature (WT) changes observed at the center of Lake Kasumigaura, a shallow turbid lake in Japan, we constructed a prediction model for WT. The thermal interactions among air, water, and sediment were simulated by a one-dimensional differential equation using hourly observations of meteorological and limnological parameters. The validated model showed good performance (i.e., <1 °C RMSE for the daily averaged WT) for 2012, 2013, and 2015, respectively, in both upper and lower water layers, which were attained by incorporating a physical sub-model regarding the surface water temperature (surface WT). The good description of seasonal, daily, and hourly changes in surface WT obtained with the sub-model was confirmed by the observed and simulated time series. We then quantified and evaluated the trends of the meteorological and limnological parameters influencing WT changes from 1979 to 2015 based on their effects on WT by using the prediction model with the increases in air temperature (AT), solar radiation (SR), wind velocity (WV), and turbidity during that period; then, WT in the former period (1979) was predicted according to the trends and compared with the measured WT. The observed WT changes during the period were quantitatively explained by the compound effects of the parameters' changes, i.e., the AT and SR raising the WT, and the WV and turbidity lowering the WT.

Factors explaining the yearly changes in minimum bottom dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Biwa, a warm monomictic lake.

Vertical profiles of dissolved oxygen (DO) and water temperature (WT) measured bi-monthly for 36 years (1980-2015) near the deepest part of a warm monomictic lake were analyzed with special reference to yearly minimum DO at bottom (DOmin). DOmin changed yearly (3.0 ± 1.2 mg l-1) and significant differences in DOmin were not observed between Period I (1980-1993; cooler and worse in water quality) and Period II (1994-2015; warmer and better in water quality). This unclear trend in DOmin was probably due to the offsetting influences between warming induced by global warming and oligotrophication attempted by local governments etc. for the study period. DOmin was positively correlated with disturbance time (timing of last cold water intrusion observed from Mar to Aug), which could be related to the start of DO depletion at bottom. Thus, the linear model using this parameter could predict yearly DOmin fairly well for the entire study period (r2 = 0.60). In addition, DOmin and time of disturbance were correlated negatively with water density at bottom in Jan and positively with water density equilibrated to air temperature (AT) in Mar. Higher lake water density after full depth mixing advances the disturbance time. In contrast, lower AT in Mar and/or higher density of influent water after Mar delays the time likely due to the larger amount of snowfall in the watershed. Further, DOmin was positively correlated with maximum wind velocity in Sep which probably induced the recovery of DO. Multiple-regression models to predict DOmin using these meteorological and water quality parameters were developed (r2 ≥ 0.38, worse performances than the model using disturbance time) to forecast future trends of DOmin through global warming and/or climate change. Significant influences of water or sediment oxygen demands on DOmin were not detected. We also discuss the applicability of the proposed models.

Shifts of radiocesium vertical profiles in sediments and their modelling in Japanese lakes.

Vertical profiles of radiocesium concentrations were measured in sediment cores collected at various times after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in five Japanese lakes (Hinuma, Kasumigaura, Kitaura, Onogawa and Sohara) with different morphological and trophic characteristics in order to investigate the sedimentation-diffusion processes. In lakes where sediments had high porosities and experienced considerable wave action due to shallowness, we observed rapid penetration of radiocesium to a certain depth just after the accident, followed by downward movement of the peak depths. In contrast, gradual downward transfers of distinct peaks were found in other types of lakes. A one-dimensional differential sediment model with water-sediments interaction processes was constructed to describe the vertical shift of radiocesium profiles. Our proposed submodels relating to the length scales of the mixing using wind-induced stress and porosity of sediments were constructed based on one measurement of the vertical distribution of radiocesium in three lakes (Hinuma, Kasumigaura and Sohara). This model was then validated using samples from those lakes in different years, as well as from two other lakes. Good agreement was obtained. We discuss our findings, the limits of model application, and future research targets.

Sediment particle size and initial radiocesium accumulation in ponds following the Fukushima DNPP accident.

This study used particle size analysis to investigate the initial accumulation and trap efficiency of radiocesium ((137)Cs) in four irrigation ponds, ~4-5 months after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (DNPP) accident. Trap efficiency, represented by the inventory of (137)Cs in pond sediment to the inventory of radiocesium in soil surrounding the pond (i.e., total (137)Cs inventory), was less than 100% for all but one pond. Trap efficiency decreased as sediment particle size increased, indicating that sediments with a smaller particle size accumulate more (137)Cs. In ponds showing low trap efficiency, fine sediment containing high concentrations of (137)Cs appeared to be removed from the system by hydraulic flushing, leaving behind mostly coarse sediment. The results of this study suggest that sediment particle size can be used to estimate the initial accumulation and trap efficiency of (137)Cs in pond sediment, as well as the amount lost through hydraulic flushing.

PAHs concentration and toxicity in organic solvent extracts of atmospheric particulate matter and sea sediments.

The concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and the toxicity to marine bacteria (Vibrio fischeri) were measured for the organic solvent extracts of sea sediments collected from an urban watershed area (Hiroshima Bay) of Japan and compared with the concentrations and toxicity of atmospheric particulate matter (PM). In atmospheric PM, the PAHs concentration was highest in fine particulate matter (FPM) collected during cold seasons. The concentrations of sea sediments were 0.01-0.001 times those of atmospheric PM. 1/EC50 was 1-10 L g(-1) PM for atmospheric PM and 0.1-1 L g(-1) dry solids for sea sediments. These results imply that toxic substances from atmospheric PM are diluted several tens or hundreds of times in sea sediments. The ratio of the 1/EC50 to PAHs concentration ((1/EC50)/16PAHs) was stable for all sea sediments (0.1-1 L µg(-1) 16PAHs) and was the same order of magnitude as that of FPM and coarse particulate matter (CPM). The ratio of sediments collected from the west was more similar to that of CPM while that from the east was more similar to FPM, possibly because of hydraulic differences among water bodies. The PAHs concentration pattern analyses (principal component analysis and isomer ratio analysis) were conducted and the results showed that the PAHs pattern in sea sediments was quite different to that of FPM and CPM. Comparison with previously conducted PAHs analyses suggested that biomass burning residues comprised a major portion of these other sources.

N : P stoichiometry in a forested runoff during storm events: comparisons with regions and vegetation types.

Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo.

Elemental composition of sediments in Lake Jinzai, Japan: assessment of sources and pollution.

Bottom sediments from Lake Jinzai in southwest Japan were analyzed to determine their chemical compositions and to assess the potential for ecological harm by comparison with sediment quality guidelines. The pollution status of lake sediments was evaluated by employing contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), and geoaccumulation index (I(geo)), focusing on a suite of elements in lakebed and core sediments. Elevated concentrations of As, Pb, Zn, Cu, TOC, N, and P were present in several layers of the upper core and other surface sediments. The elevated metal concentrations are likely related to the fine-grained nature of the sediments, reducing bottom conditions produced by abundant organic matter, and possibly minor non-point anthropogenic sources. Moreover, correlations between the concentrations of trace metals and organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron, suggest that these elements play a role in controlling abundances. Calculated CF, PLI, and I(geo) indicate that the sediments are strongly polluted with respect to As, moderately to strongly polluted with Zn, and moderately polluted with Pb and Cu. Metal concentrations exceed the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) lowest effect level and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) interim sediment quality guidelines that indicate moderate impact on aquatic organisms in the study area.

Recent sedimentary environment of coastal lagoon in southwestern Japan: evidence from major and trace elements.

A geochemical study of the bottom sediments of Lake Shinji and the River Ohashi in southwestern Japan was carried out to determine their elemental compositions and to evaluate the pollution status of lake sediments by employing enrichment factor (EF), pollution load index (PLI), and geoaccumulation index (Igeo). Present-day water quality was also assessed. Results showed that the water quality of Lake Shinji contrasts slightly between the upper and lower parts. The chemical composition of the sediments, as measured by X-ray fluorescence, included major and trace elements and total sulfur (TS). Average abundances of As, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Cr in the Shinji sediments were 10, 29, 143, 27, 19, and 54 ppm, respectively, compared to 6, 18, 57, 16, 10, and 37 ppm in the river sediments. Based on the EF, PLI, and Igeo, the lake sediments are moderately to strongly polluted with respect to As, moderately polluted with Pb, Zn, and Cr, and unpolluted with Cu and Ni. The high EF and Igeo for As, Pb, and Zn in the lake sediments indicate that metal concentration has occurred in Shinji. Increases in the abundances of these metals are likely related to the fine-grained nature of the sediments, reducing conditions of the bottom sediments, enrichment in organic matter, and possibly a minor contribution from non-point anthropogenic sources. Trace metal contents are strongly correlated with Fe2O3 and TS, suggesting that Fe oxides and sulfides play a role in controlling abundances in the investigated areas.

Abundances, distribution, and sources of trace metals in Nakaumi-Honjo coastal lagoon sediments, Japan.

Bottom sediments from Nakaumi Lagoon and the Honjo Area in southwest Japan were analyzed to determine their geochemical compositions and to assess potential impacts by comparison with sediment quality guidelines. Present-day water quality was also assessed. Results showed that the water quality of Nakaumi Lagoon and the Honjo area contrasts between their upper and lower parts. Average abundances of As, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Cr in the Nakaumi sediments were 12, 25, 135, 32, 21, and 46 ppm, respectively, compared to 10, 24, 110, 26, 20, and 38 ppm in the Honjo area. All averages are greater than those of the upper continental crust. The elevated metal concentrations are probably related to the fine-grained nature of the sediments, reducing bottom conditions produced by abundant organic matter and possibly minor non-point anthropogenic sources. Trace metal contents are strongly correlated with Fe2O3, suggesting that Fe oxides play a role in controlling abundances. Metal concentrations exceed the NYSDEC lowest effect level and CCME interim sediment quality guidelines that indicate moderate impact on aquatic organisms. Average abundances of As and Zn are comparable to the Coastal Ocean Sediment Database threshold, whereas maximum concentrations exceed that value, indicating that the concentrations of these metals are potentially toxic. These enrichments suggest that regular monitoring may be desirable even where no point sources of metal pollution exist.

Baseflow concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in forested headwaters in Japan.

A comprehensive investigation on all dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus components at both local and regional scales in the headwaters from forested watersheds is valuable to improve our understanding of the factors controlling water quality. Here, we investigated the baseflow concentrations of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus components, N:P ratio, and their associations with region and vegetation type in forested headwaters in fives regions of Japan. We found that inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus were the dominant components in the 26 temperate forested streams, rather than organic forms. There were significant positive correlations between the concentrations of N and P components. Furthermore, the regional patterns of the concentrations of nitrate, dissolved inorganic P (DIP), and dissolved total N (DTN) and P (DTP) were similar. Our results suggest that the regional patterns of the concentrations of N and P components should be related to the regional atmospheric deposition of both N and P nutrients. We also found that the nitrate and DTN concentrations were higher in man-made evergreen conifer (EC) than those in the natural deciduous broadleaf (DB). In contrast, the DIP and DTP concentrations in EC were lower than those in DB. The uniformly higher N:P ratio in EC- than in DB-forested streams for each region suggest that EC-forested streams could be more affected by P-limited than DB-forested streams when N inputs from atmospheric sources increased.

Characterisation of diffuse pollutions from forested watersheds in Japan during storm events - its association with rainfall and watershed features.

Forest areas have been identified as important sources of nonpoint pollution in Japan. The managers must estimate stormwater quality and quantities from forested watersheds to develop effective management strategies. Therefore, stormwater runoff loads and concentrations of 10 constituents (total suspended solids, dissolved organic carbon, PO(4)-P, dissolved total phosphorus, total phosphorus, NH(4)-N, NO(2)-N, NO(3)-N, dissolved total nitrogen, and total nitrogen) for 72 events across five regions (Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and Tokyo) were characterised. Most loads were significantly and positively correlated with stormwater variables (total event rainfall, event duration, and rainfall intensity), but most discharge-weighted event concentrations (DWECs) showed negative correlations with rainfall intensity. Mean water quality concentration during baseflow was correlated significantly with storm concentrations (r=0.41-0.77). Although all pollutant load equations showed high coefficients of determination (R(2)=0.55-0.80), no models predicted well pollutant concentrations, except those for the three N constituents (R(2)=0.59-0.67). Linear regressions to estimate stormwater concentrations and loads were greatly improved by regional grouping. The lower prediction capability of the concentration models for Mie, compared with the other four regions, indicated that other watershed or storm characteristics should be included in the prediction models. Significant differences among regions were found more frequently in concentrations than in loads for all constituents. Since baseflow conditions implied available pollutant sources for stormwater, the similar spatial characteristics of pollutant concentrations between baseflow and stormflow conditions were an important control for stormwater quality.

A New Method to Define the VI-Ts Diagram Using Subpixel Vegetation and Soil Information: A Case Study over a Semiarid Agricultural Region in the North China Plain.

The VI-Ts diagram determined by the scatter points of the vegetation index (VI) and surface temperature (Ts) has been widely applied in land surface studies. In the VI-Ts diagram, dry point is defined as a pixel with maximum Ts and minimum VI, while wet point is defined as a pixel with minimum Ts and maximum VI. If both dry and wet points can be obtained simultaneously, a triangular VI-Ts diagram can be readily defined. However, traditional methods cannot define an ideal VI-Ts diagram if there are no full ranges of land surface moisture and VI, such as during rainy season or in a period with a narrow VI range. In this study, a new method was proposed to define the VI-Ts diagram based on the subpixel vegetation and soil information, which was independent of the full ranges of land surface moisture and VI. In this method, a simple approach was firstly proposed to decompose Ts of a given pixel into two components, the surface temperatures of soil (Tsoil) and vegetation (Tveg), by means of Ts and VI information of neighboring pixels. The minimum Tveg and maximum Tsoil were then used to determine the wet and dry points respectively within a given sampling window. This method was tested over a 30 km × 30 km semiarid agricultural area in the North China Plain through 2003 using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The wet and dry points obtained from our proposed method and from a traditional method were compared with those obtained from ground data within the sampling window with the 30 km × 30 km size. Results show that Tsoil and Tveg can be obtained with acceptable accuracies, and that our proposed method can define reasonable VI-Ts diagrams over a semiarid agricultural region throughout the whole year, even for both cases of rainy season and narrow range of VI.

Dissolved iron and its speciation in a shallow eutrophic lake and its inflowing rivers.

It has been suggested that iron is a limiting factor on bloom-forming cyanobacteria in lake water. Although the availability of iron for phytoplankton depends significantly on its speciation, little is known about iron speciation in natural lake water. We investigated the horizontal distribution and temporal variation of dissolved iron and its chemical speciation in Lake Kasumigaura and its two inflowing rivers. Concentrations of dissolved iron and its organic ligands, determined by cathodic stripping voltammetry, clearly decreased as lake water flowed from the river entry points toward the center of the lake, indicating their riverine origin. The fraction of iron occurring in organic complexes tended to increase with the water flow. These results suggest that most of the dissolved iron in river water forms unstable soluble species, such as inorganic iron; thus, these unstable iron species may be scavenged in the mouths of rivers, and stable organic complexes of iron may flow to the center of the lake. Furthermore, most of the dissolved iron (88.2-99.9%) was present as organic complexes, and the inorganic iron level in Lake Kasumigaura (pFe' value=7.8-13.6) was similar to that observed in the open ocean. This result suggests that iron is an important factor determining the structure of the phytoplankton community in Lake Kasumigaura.

Characterization of dissolved organic matter in effluents from wastewater treatment plants.

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in effluents from sewage and human-wastes treatment plants (STPEs and HWTPEs) was fractionated using resin adsorbents into six classes: aquatic humic substances (AHS), hydrophobic bases (HoB), hydrophobic neutrals (HoN), hydrophilic acids (HiA), hydrophilic bases (HiB), and hydrophilic neutrals (HiN). DOM-fraction distribution varied substantially depending on the kind of wastewater and the type of treatment process. AHS and HiA dominated in all effluents, collectively accounting for more than 55% of the DOM measured as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). In particular, HiA were the most abundant fraction in the effluents, constituting 32-74% of the DOM. AHS appeared to be the second most dominant fraction and varied considerably, accounting for 3-28% of the DOM. The HoN fraction also varied from 0-21%. AHS, HoN, and HiA were the fractions that changed substantially and differed characteristically among the samples studied. The ratios of ultraviolet absorbance to DOC (UV: DOC ratio) in all effluents exhibited a common relationship: AHS> total DOM > HiA. Nevertheless, the ratios were substantially different between STPEs and HWTPEs and among HWTPEs. For HWTPEs, the effluent from the chemical coagulation process had the highest UV: DOC ratios. On the other hand, the effluent from the ultrafiltration and activated carbon adsorption processes had the lowest ratios. Molecular size distribution of the effluents was determined by size exclusion chromatography and found to exhibit a relatively narrow size range and low weight-averaged molecular weights ranging from 380 to 830 g mol(-1). The weight-averaged molecular weight of DOM increased as the UV: DOC ratio of total DOM increased.