Genome-Derived Ampullary Adenocarcinoma Classifier and Postresection Prognostication.

Importance: Ampullary adenocarcinoma (AA) is characterized by clinical and genomic heterogeneity. A previously developed genomic classifier defined biologically distinct phenotypes with greater accuracy than standard histologic classification. External validation is needed before routine clinical use. Objective: To test external validity of the prognostic value of the hidden genome classifier of AA. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study took place at 6 international academic institutions. Consecutive patients (n = 192) who underwent curative-intent resection of histologically confirmed AA were included. The data were analyzed from January 2005 through July 2020. Exposures: The multilevel meta-feature regression model previously trained on a prospectively sequenced cohort of 3411 patients (1001 pancreatic adenocarcinoma, 165 distal bile duct adenocarcinoma, and 2245 colorectal adenocarcinoma) was applied to AA sequencing data to quantify the relative proportions of parental cell of origin. Main Outcome and Measures: Genomic classification was correlated with immunohistologic subtype (intestinal [INT] or pancreatobiliary [PB]) and with overall survival (OS), using the log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Among 192 patients with AA (median age, 69.0 [IQR, 60.0-74.0] years and 134 were male [64%]), concordance between immunohistologic and genomic subtypes was 55%. Most INT subtype tumors were categorized into the colorectal genomic subtype (43 of 57 [72.9%]). Of the 114 PB subtype tumors, 29 had a pancreatic genomic profile (25.4%) and 24 had a distal bile duct genomic profile (21.1%). Whereas the standard immunohistologic subtypes were not associated with survival (log rank P = .26), predicted genomic probabilities were correlated with survival probability. Genomic scores with higher colorectal probability were associated with higher survival probability; higher pancreatic and distal bile duct probabilities were associated with lower survival probability. Conclusions and Relevance: The AA genomic classifier is reproducible with available molecular testing in a diverse international cohort of patients and improves stratification of the divergent clinical outcomes beyond standard immunohistologic classification. These data provide a molecular classification that may be incorporated into clinical trials for prospective validation.

Distinct clinical outcomes and biological features of specific KRAS mutants in human pancreatic cancer.

KRAS mutations in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are suggested to vary in oncogenicity but the implications for human patients have not been explored in depth. We examined 1,360 consecutive PDAC patients undergoing surgical resection and find that KRASG12R mutations are enriched in early-stage (stage I) disease, owing not to smaller tumor size but increased node-negativity. KRASG12R tumors are associated with decreased distant recurrence and improved survival as compared to KRASG12D. To understand the biological underpinnings, we performed spatial profiling of 20 patients and bulk RNA-sequencing of 100 tumors, finding enhanced oncogenic signaling and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in KRASG12D and increased nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) signaling in KRASG12R tumors. Orthogonal studies of mouse KrasG12R PDAC organoids show decreased migration and improved survival in orthotopic models. KRAS alterations in PDAC are thus associated with distinct presentation, clinical outcomes, and biological behavior, highlighting the prognostic value of mutational analysis and the importance of articulating mutation-specific PDAC biology.

Clinical Calculator for Predicting Freedom From Recurrence After Resection of Stage I-III Colon Cancer in Patients With Microsatellite Instability.

PURPOSE: Outcome for patients with nonmetastatic, microsatellite instability (MSI) colon cancer is favorable: however, high-risk cohorts exist. This study was aimed at developing and validating a nomogram model to predict freedom from recurrence (FFR) for patients with resected MSI colon cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from patients who underwent curative resection of stage I, II, or III MSI colon cancer in 2014-2021 (model training cohort, 384 patients, 33 events; median follow-up, 38.8 months) were retrospectively collected from institutional databases. Variables associated with recurrence in multivariable analysis were selected for inclusion in the clinical calculator. The calculator's predictive accuracy was measured with the concordance index and validated using data from patients who underwent treatment for MSI colon cancer in 2007-2013 (validation cohort, 164 patients, eight events; median follow-up, 84.8 months). RESULTS: T category and number of positive lymph nodes were significantly associated with recurrence in multivariable analysis and were selected for inclusion in the clinical calculator. The calculator's concordance index for FFR in the model training cohort was 0.812 (95% CI, 0.742 to 0.873), compared with 0.759 (95% CI, 0.683 to 0.840) for the staging schema of the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Manual. The concordance index for the validation cohort was 0.744 (95% CI, 0.666 to 0.822), confirming robust predictive accuracy. CONCLUSION: Although in general patients with nonmetastatic MSI colon cancer had favorable outcome, patients with advanced T category and multiple metastatic lymph nodes had higher risk of recurrence. The clinical calculator identified patients with MSI colon cancer at high risk for recurrence, and this could inform surveillance strategies. In addition, the model could be used in trial design to identify patients suitable for novel adjuvant therapy.

Clinical, Imaging, and Technical Factors Associated with Successful Genomic Profiling of Bone Biopsy Tissue in Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The source of tissue for genomic profiling of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is often limited to osseous metastases. To guide patient management, metastatic site selection and the technique for targeted bone biopsies are critical for identifying deleterious gene mutations. Our objective was to identify key parameters associated with successful large-panel DNA sequencing. METHODS: We analyzed parameters for 243 men with progressing mCRPC who underwent 269 bone biopsies for genomic profiling between 2014 and 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for clinical, imaging (bone scan; fluorodeoxyglucose [FDG] positron emission tomography [PET]; computed tomography [CT]; magnetic resonance imaging), and technical (biopsy site, number of samples, needle gauge) features associated with successful genomic profiling. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, 159 of 269 biopsies (59%) generated sufficient tumor material for a genomic profile. Seventy (26%) of the failures were histopathologically negative for mCRPC and 40 (15%) had insufficient tumor for genomic profiling. Of 199 mCRPC samples submitted for molecular testing, 159 (80%) yielded a genomic profile. On univariate analysis, PSA, serum acid phosphatase, number of biopsy samples, FDG PET positivity, CT attenuation, and CT morphology were significantly associated with genomic profiling success. On multivariate analysis, higher FDG maximum standardized uptake value (odds ratio [OR] 7.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.01-18.78; p < 0.001), higher number of biopsy samples (OR 4.73, 95% CI 1.49-15.02; p = 0.008), and lower mean CT attenuation (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.18-0.89; p = 0.025) were significantly associated with sequencing success. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: In patients with mCRPC, bone biopsies from sites with metabolic activity and lower CT attenuation are associated with higher success rates for genomic profiling via a large-panel DNA sequencing platform. PATIENT SUMMARY: We identified factors associated with successful genetic testing of bone tissue for patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Our findings may help in guiding the right scan technique and biopsy site for personalized treatment planning.

New clinical trial design borrowing information across patient subgroups based on fusion-penalized regression models.

In cancer research, basket trials aim to assess the efficacy of a drug using baskets, wherein patients are organized into subgroups according to their tumor type. In this context, using information borrowing strategy may increase the probability of detecting drug efficacy in active baskets, by shrinking together the estimates of the parameters characterizing the drug efficacy in baskets with similar drug activity. Here, we propose to use fusion-penalized logistic regression models to borrow information in the setting of a phase 2 single-arm basket trial with binary outcome. We describe our proposed strategy and assess its performance via a simulation study. We assessed the impact of heterogeneity in drug efficacy, prevalence of each tumor types and implementation of interim analyses on the operating characteristics of our proposed design. We compared our approach with two existing designs, relying on the specification of prior information in a Bayesian framework to borrow information across similar baskets. Notably, our approach performed well when the effect of the drug varied greatly across the baskets. Our approach offers several advantages, including limited implementation efforts and fast computation, which is essential when planning a new trial as such planning requires intensive simulation studies.

Has Management of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Evolved with the Evidence? Trends and Practice Patterns from the National Cancer Database.

BACKGROUND: Management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHC) has advanced in recent decades, including randomized trial evidence supporting systemic therapy in the palliative and adjuvant setting. Mounting observational evidence suggests resection of IHC with multifocal disease (IHC-MF) or lymph node metastasis (IHC-LNM) should be limited. It is unknown how real-world practice has evolved in light of research advances. This study characterizes trends in management and outcomes of IHC without distant metastasis. METHODS: We queried the National Cancer Database (NCDB) for patients treated for IHC without distant metastasis (M0) and identified subgroups with lymph node (cN1) or multifocal hepatic involvement (cT2b). Two-sided Cochran-Armitage tests evaluated trends in initial treating modality and perioperative chemotherapy. Logistic regression evaluated associations with choice of initial treating modality. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated by using Kaplan-Meier methods. RESULTS: Between 2004 and 2020, 11,368 patients were treated for IHC without extrahepatic metastasis. Forty-three percent underwent resection. Initial management shifted from resection towards radiation or systemic therapy in IHC-MF and IHC-LNM. Use of perioperative chemotherapy increased from 39% pre-2010 to 70% in 2018-2020 (p < 0.001), most often delivered postoperatively. Across the entire cohort, median OS improved from 16 (95% confidence interval [CI] 15-18) to 27 months (95% CI 26-29). More modest improvements were observed in IHC-MF and IHC-LNM. CONCLUSIONS: Use of perioperative chemotherapy has been widely adopted, predating randomized trial evidence in the adjuvant setting. Initial management of IHC-MF and IHC-LNM has shifted from resection to systemic and/or radiation therapy. While OS has improved overall, outcomes of IHC-MF and IHC-LNM remain poor, warranting further investigation.

Intratumoral Escherichia Is Associated With Improved Survival to Single-Agent Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Patients With Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: The impact of the intratumoral microbiome on immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) efficacy in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is unknown. Preclinically, intratumoral Escherichia is associated with a proinflammatory tumor microenvironment and decreased metastases. We sought to determine whether intratumoral Escherichia is associated with outcome to ICI in patients with NSCLC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We examined the intratumoral microbiome in 958 patients with advanced NSCLC treated with ICI by querying unmapped next-generation sequencing reads against a bacterial genome database. Putative environmental contaminants were filtered using no-template controls (n = 2,378). The impact of intratumoral Escherichia detection on overall survival (OS) was assessed using univariable and multivariable analyses. The findings were further validated in an external independent cohort of 772 patients. Escherichia fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and transcriptomic profiling were performed. RESULTS: In the discovery cohort, read mapping to intratumoral Escherichia was associated with significantly longer OS (16 v 11 months; hazard ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.59 to 0.92]; P = .0065) in patients treated with single-agent ICI, but not combination chemoimmunotherapy. The association with OS in the single-agent ICI cohort remained statistically significant in multivariable analysis adjusting for prognostic features including PD-L1 expression (P = .023). Analysis of an external validation cohort confirmed the association with improved OS in univariable and multivariable analyses of patients treated with single-agent ICI, and not in patients treated with chemoimmunotherapy. Escherichia localization within tumor cells was supported by coregistration of FISH staining and serial hematoxylin and eosin sections. Transcriptomic analysis correlated Escherichia-positive samples with expression signatures of immune cell infiltration. CONCLUSION: Read mapping to potential intratumoral Escherichia was associated with survival to single-agent ICI in two independent cohorts of patients with NSCLC.

Watch and Wait in Rectal Cancer Patients with Residual Mucin on MRI following Neoadjuvant Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) leads to a clinical complete response (cCR) in a significant proportion of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), allowing for possible nonoperative management. The presence of mucin on MRI after NAT leads to uncertainty about residual disease and appropriateness of a watch-and-wait (WW) strategy in patients with no evidence of disease on proctoscopy (endoscopic cCR). METHODS: MRI reports for LARC patients seen between July 2016 and January 2020 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center were queried for presence of mucin in the tumor bed on MRI following NAT. Clinicodemographic, pathologic, and outcome data were compiled and analyzed. RESULTS: Of 71 patients with mucin on post-treatment MRI, 20 had a cCR and 51 had abnormalities on endoscopy and/or physical exam. One patient with a cCR opted out of WW; thus, 19 patients (27%) entered WW and 52 patients (73%) were planned for surgery (Non-WW). Of the 19 WW patients, 15 (79%) have had no local regrowth with median follow-up of 50 months (range, 29-76 months), while 4 (21%) experienced regrowth between 9 and 29 months after neoadjuvant therapy. Of the 52 patients who were planned to have surgery (Non-WW), 49 underwent resection while 3 developed metastatic disease that precluded curative-intent surgery. Five (10%) of the 49 patients who underwent surgery, including the one with an endoscopic cCR, had a pathologic complete response. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of mucin after NAT for LARC does not preclude WW management in otherwise appropriate candidates who achieve an endoscopic cCR.

Safety of Selective Operative Drainage After Pancreatic Resection: A Retrospective Analysis of 2,607 Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether selective omission of operative drains after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP) is associated with adverse perioperative outcomes. BACKGROUND: The routine use of operative drains after pancreatectomy is widely practiced; however, prospective randomized clinical trials and retrospective analyses have shown mixed results. METHODS: Patients who underwent PD or DP between November 2009 and May 2021 were reviewed and stratified by operative drain placement. Patient demographics, morbidity, the need for additional procedures, and mortality were compared between patients who did or did not develop a clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF). RESULTS: In total, 1,855 PD and 752 DP cases were analyzed. Among PD patients with a CR-POPF (N=259, 14%), 160 (62%) had an operative drain placed, of whom 141 (88%) required at least 1 additional procedure. Within this subgroup, grade ≥ 4 complications (7.5% vs. 11.1%, P=0.37), 90-day mortality (3.8% vs. 6.1%, P=0.54), length of stay (LOS) (median 12 vs. 13 d, P=0.19) and readmission rates (63.1% vs. 54.6%, P=0.19) were similar between drained and non-drained patients. Of note, drained PD patients without a CR-POPF had a longer hospital stay (8 vs. 7 d, respectively, P=0.004) and more thromboembolic events (2.4% vs. 1.1%, respectively, P=0.04) Among DP patients with a CR-POPF (n=129), 44 had an operative drain, with 37 (84%) requiring an additional procedure. Within this subgroup, grade ≥ 4 complications (4.6% vs. 5.9%, P>0.95), 90-day mortality (0%), LOS (median 7 d for both, P=0.88) and readmission rates (72.7% vs. 80%, P=0.38) were similar in drained and non-drained patients. CONCLUSION: This study confirms that selective omission of operative drains does not compromise perioperative outcomes, as initially reported in our prospective randomized trial.

Outcome of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and previous biliary instrumentation: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: To assess the outcome of previously untreated patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma who present to a cancer referral center with or without pre-existing trans-papillary biliary drainage. METHODS: Consecutive patients with a diagnosis of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma presenting between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017, were identified from a prospective surgical database and by a query of the institutional database. Of 237 patients identified, 106 met inclusion criteria and were reviewed. Clinical information was obtained from the Electronic Medical Record and imaging studies were reviewed in the Picture Archiving and Communication System. RESULTS: 73 of 106 patients (69%) presenting with a new diagnosis of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma underwent trans-papillary biliary drainage (65 endoscopic and 8 percutaneous) prior to presentation at our institution. 8 of the 73 patients with trans-papillary biliary drainage (11%) presented with and 5 developed cholangitis; all 13 (18%) required subsequent intervention; none of the patients without trans-papillary biliary drainage presented with or required drainage for cholangitis (p = 0.008). Requiring drainage for cholangitis was more likely to delay treatment (p = 0.012) and portended a poorer median overall survival (13.6 months, 95%CI [4.08, not reached)] vs. 20.6 months, 95%CI [18.34, 37.51] p = 0.043). CONCLUSION: Trans-papillary biliary drainage for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma carries a risk of cholangitis and should be avoided when possible. Clinical and imaging findings of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma should prompt evaluation at a cancer referral center before any intervention. This would mitigate development of cholangitis necessitating additional drainage procedures, delaying treatment and potentially compromising survival.

Hemorrhage Sites and Mitigation Strategies After Pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Importance: Postpancreatectomy hemorrhage is an uncommon but highly morbid complication of pancreaticoduodenectomy. Clinical evidence often draws suspicion to the gastroduodenal artery stump, even without a clear source. Objective: To determine the frequency of gastroduodenal artery bleeding compared to other sites and the results of mitigation strategies. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study involved a retrospective analysis of data for consecutive patients who had pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2011 to 2021 at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK) and Thomas Jefferson University Hospital (TJUH). Exposures: Demographic, perioperative, and disease-related variables. Main Outcomes and Measures: The incidence, location, treatment, and outcomes of primary (initial) and secondary (recurrent) hemorrhage requiring invasive intervention were analyzed. Imaging studies were re-reviewed by interventional radiologists to confirm sites. Results: Inclusion criteria were met by 3040 patients (n = 1761 MSK, n = 1279 TJUH). Patients from both institutions were similar in age (median [IQR] age at MSK, 67 [59-74] years, and at TJUH, 68 [60-75] years) and sex (at MSK, 814 female [46.5%] and 947 male [53.8%], and at TJUH, 623 [48.7%] and 623 male [51.3%]). Primary hemorrhage occurred in 90 patients (3.0%), of which the gastroduodenal artery was the source in 15 (16.7%), unidentified sites in 24 (26.7%), and non-gastroduodenal artery sites in 51 (56.7%). Secondary hemorrhage occurred in 23 patients; in 4 (17.4%), the gastroduodenal artery was the source. Of all hemorrhage events (n = 117), the gastroduodenal artery was the source in 19 (16.2%, 0.63% incidence in all pancreaticoduodenectomies). Gastroduodenal artery hemorrhage was more often associated with soft gland texture (14 [93.3%] vs 41 [62.1%]; P = .02) and later presentation (median [IQR], 21 [15-26] vs 10 days [5-18]; P = .002). Twenty-three patients underwent empirical gastroduodenal artery embolization or stent placement, 7 (30.4%) of whom subsequently experienced secondary hemorrhage. Twenty percent of all gastroduodenal artery embolizations/stents (8/40 patients), including 13% (3/13 patients) of empirical treatments, were associated with significant morbidity (7 hepatic infarction, 4 biliary stricture), with a 90-day mortality rate of 38.5% (n = 5) for patients with these complications vs 7.8% without (n = 6; P = .008). Ninety-day mortality was 12.2% (n = 11) for patients with hemorrhage (3 patients [20%] with primary gastroduodenal vs 8 [10.7%] for all others; P = .38) compared with 2% (n = 59) for patients without hemorrhage. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, postpancreatectomy hemorrhage was uncommon and the spectrum was broad, with the gastroduodenal artery responsible for a minority of bleeding events. Empirical gastroduodenal artery embolization/stent without obvious sequelae of recent hemorrhage was associated with significant morbidity and rebleeding and should not be routine practice. Successful treatment of postpancreatectomy hemorrhage requires careful assessment of all potential sources, even after gastroduodenal artery mitigation.

Skull base surgery for malignant tumors: The 2nd international collaborative study (1995-2015).

BACKGROUND: The current study presents the effort of a global collaborative group to review the management and outcomes of malignant tumors of the skull base worldwide. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 28 institutions contributed data on 3061 patients. Analysis evaluated clinical variables, survival outcomes, and multivariable factors associated with outcomes. RESULTS: The median age was 56 years (IQR 44-67). The open surgical approach was used in 55% (n = 1680) of cases, endoscopic resection was performed in 36% (n = 1087), and the combined approach in 9.6% (n = 294). With a median follow-up of 7.1 years, the 5-year OS DSS and RFS were 65%, 71.7% and 53%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, older age, comorbidities, histology, dural/intracranial involvement, positive margins, advanced stage, and primary site were independent prognostic factors for OS, DSS, and RFS. Adjuvant RT was a protective prognostic factor. CONCLUSION: The progress across various disciplines may have contributed to improved OS and DSS in this study compared to previous reports.

Oncologic Outcomes of Salvage Abdominoperineal Resection for Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Initially Managed with Chemoradiation.

Background: Abdominoperineal resection (APR) has been advocated for persistent or recurrent disease after failure of chemoradiation (CRT) for anal squamous cell cancer (SCC). Treatment with salvage APR can potentially achieve a cure. This study aimed to analyze oncological outcomes for salvage APR in a recent time period at a comprehensive cancer center. Methods: A retrospective review of all patients who underwent APR for biopsy-proven persistent or recurrent anal SCC between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2020 was performed. Patients with stage IV disease at the time of initial diagnosis and patients with missing data were excluded. Univariate analysis was used with a chi-square test for categorical variables, and non-parametric tests were used for continuous variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to evaluate disease-specific (DSS), post-APR local recurrence-free (RFS), and disease-free survival (DFS). Results: A total of 96 patients were included in the analysis: 39 (41%) with persistent disease and 57 (59%) with recurrent SCC after chemoradiation had been completed. The median follow-up was 22 months (IQR 11-47). Forty-nine patients (51%) underwent extended APR and/or pelvic exenteration. Eight (8%) patients developed local recurrence, 30 (31%) developed local and distant recurrences, and 16 (17%) developed distant recurrences alone. The 3-year DSS, post-APR local recurrence-free survival, and disease-free survival were 53.8% (95% CI 43.5-66.5%), 54.5% (95% CI 44.4-66.8%), and 26.8% (95% CI 18.6-38.7%), respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, positive microscopic margin (OR 10.0, 95% CI 2.16-46.12, p = 0.003), positive nodes in the surgical specimen (OR 9.19, 95% CI 1.99-42.52, p = 0.005), and lymphovascular invasion (OR 2.61 95% CI 1.05-6.51, p = 0.04) were associated with recurrence of disease. Gender, indication for APR (recurrent vs. persistent disease), HIV status, extent of surgery, or type of reconstruction did not influence survival outcomes. Twenty patients had targeted tumor-sequencing data available. Nine patients had PIK3CA mutations, seven of whom experienced a recurrence. Conclusions: Salvage APR for anal SCC after failed CRT was associated with poor disease-specific survival and low recurrence-free survival. Anal SCC patients undergoing salvage APR should be counseled that microscopic positive margins, positive lymph nodes, or the presence of lymphovascular invasion in the APR specimen are prognosticators for disease relapse. Our results accentuate the necessity for additional treatment strategies for the ongoing treatment challenge of persistent or recurrent anal SCC after failed CRT.

Use of Response Permutation to Measure an Imaging Dataset's Susceptibility to Overfitting by Selected Standard Analysis Pipelines.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: This study demonstrates a method for quantifying the impact of overfitting on the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC) when using standard analysis pipelines to develop imaging biomarkers. We illustrate the approach using two publicly available repositories of radiology and pathology images for breast cancer diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For each dataset, we permuted the outcome (cancer diagnosis) values to eliminate any true association between imaging features and outcome. Seven types of classification models (logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, Naïve Bayes, linear support vector machines, nonlinear support vector machine, random forest, and multi-layer perceptron) were fitted to each scrambled dataset and evaluated by each of four techniques (all data, hold-out, 10-fold cross-validation, and bootstrapping). After repeating this process for a total of 50 outcome permutations, we averaged the resulting AUCs. Any increase over a null AUC of 0.5 can be attributed to overfitting. RESULTS: Applying this approach and varying sample size and the number of imaging features, we found that failing to control for overfitting could result in near-perfect prediction (AUC near 1.0). Cross-validation offered greater protection against overfitting than the other evaluation techniques, and for most classification algorithms a sample size of at least 200 was required to assess as few as 10 features with less than 0.05 AUC inflation attributable to overfitting. CONCLUSION: This approach could be applied to any curated dataset to suggest the number of features and analysis approaches to limit overfitting.

Patient metabolic profile defined by liver and muscle 18F-FDG PET avidity is independently associated with overall survival in gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: PET-CT-based patient metabolic profiling is a novel concept to incorporate patient-specific metabolism into gastric cancer care. METHODS: Staging PET-CTs, demographics, and clinicopathologic variables of gastric cancer patients were obtained from a prospectively maintained institutional database. PET-CT avidity was measured in tumor, liver, spleen, four paired muscles, and two paired fat areas in each patient. The liver to rectus femoris (LRF) ratio was defined as the ratio of SUVmean of liver to the average SUVmean of the bilateral rectus femoris muscles. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to identify the impact of LRF ratio on OS. RESULTS: Two hundred and one patients with distal gastroesophageal (48%) or gastric (52%) adenocarcinoma were included. Median age was 65 years, and 146 (73%) were male. On univariate analysis, rectus femoris PET-CT avidity and LRF ratio were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.05). LRF ratio was significantly higher in males, early-stage cancer, patients with an ECOG 0 or 1 performance status, patients with albumin > 3.5 mg/dL, and those with moderately differentiated tumor histology. In multivariable regression, gastric cancer stage, albumin, and LRF ratio were significant independent predictors of overall survival (LRF ratio HR = 0.73 (0.56-0.96); p = 0.024). Survival curves showed that the prognostic impact of LRF was associated with metastatic gastric cancer (p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated LRF ratio, a patient-specific PET-CT-based metabolic parameter, was independently associated with an improvement in OS in patients with metastatic gastric cancer. With prospective validation, LRF ratio may be a useful, host-specific metabolic parameter for prognostication in gastric cancer.

Predicting Long-Term Childhood Survival of Newborns with Congenital Heart Defects: A Population-Based, Prospective Cohort Study (EPICARD).

Backgroud: Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most frequent group of major congenital anomalies, accounting for almost 1% of all births. They comprise a very heterogeneous group of birth defects in terms of their severity, clinical management, epidemiology, and embryologic origins. Taking this heterogeneity into account is an important imperative to provide reliable prognostic information to patients and their caregivers, as well as to compare results between centers or to assess alternative diagnostic and treatment strategies. The Anatomic and Clinical Classification of CHD (ACC-CHD) aims to facilitate both the CHD coding process and data analysis in clinical and epidemiological studies. The objectives of the study were to (1) Describe the long-term childhood survival of newborns with CHD, and (2) Develop and validate predictive models of infant mortality based on the ACC-CHD. Methods: This study wasbased on data from a population-based, prospective cohort study: Epidemiological Study of Children with Congenital Heart Defects (EPICARD). The final study population comprised 1881 newborns with CHDs after excluding cases that were associated with chromosomal and other anomalies. Statistical analysis included non-parametric survival analysis and flexible parametric survival models. The predictive performance of models was assessed by Harrell's C index and the Royston-Sauerbrei RD2, with internal validation by bootstrap. Results: The overall 8-year survival rate for newborns with isolated CHDs was 0.96 [0.93-0.95]. There was a substantial difference between the survival rate of the categories of ACC-CHD. The highest and lowest 8-year survival rates were 0.995 [0.989-0.997] and 0.34 [0.21-0.50] for "interatrial communication abnormalities and ventricular septal defects" and "functionally univentricular heart", respectively. Model discrimination, as measured by Harrell's C, was 87% and 89% for the model with ACC-CHD alone and the full model, which included other known predictors of infant mortality, respectively. The predictive performance, as measured by RD2, was 45% and 50% for the ACC-CHD alone and the full model. These measures were essentially the same after internal validation by bootstrap. Conclusions: The ACC-CHD classification provided the basis of a highly discriminant survival model with good predictive ability for the 8-year survival of newborns with CHDs. Prediction of individual outcomes remains an important clinical and statistical challenge.

Tumour deposits are independently associated with recurrence in colon cancer.

AIM: Tumour deposits are focal aggregates of cancer cells in pericolic fat and mesentery, distinct from vessels, nerves and lymphatics. Their presence upstages lymph node negative patients but is ignored in lymph node positive patients. We investigated the clinicopathological factors associated with tumour deposits and their impact on recurrence in lymph node positive and negative patients. METHOD: Clinicopathological variables were collected from the medical records of patients with Stage I-III colon cancer who underwent resection in 2017-2019. Pathology was reviewed by a gastrointestinal pathologist. Patients with rectal cancer, metastasis, and concurrent malignancy were excluded. RESULTS: Tumour deposits were noted in 69 (9%) of 770 patients. They were associated with the presence of lymph node metastasis, advanced T category, poorly differentiated tumours, microsatellite stable subtype and lymphovascular and perineural invasion (p < 0.05). The presence of tumour deposits (hazard ratio 2.48, 95% CI 1.49-4.10) and of lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio 3.04, 95% CI 1.72-5.37) were independently associated with decreased time to recurrence. There was a weak correlation (0.27) between the number of tumour deposits and the number of positive lymph nodes. CONCLUSION: Tumour deposits are associated with more advanced disease and high-risk pathological features. The presence of tumour deposits and lymph node metastasis were found to be independent risk factors for decreased time to recurrence. A patient with both lymph node metastasis and tumour deposits is more than twice as likely to have recurrence compared with a patient with only lymph node metastasis. Tumour deposits independently predict recurrence and should not be ignored in lymph node positive patients.

Three-Dimensional Margin as a Predictor of Local Tumor Progression after Microwave Ablation: Intraprocedural versus 4-8-Week Postablation Assessment.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic accuracy of intraprocedural and 4-8-week (current standard) post-microwave ablation zone (AZ) and margin assessments for prediction of local tumor progression (LTP) using 3-dimensional (3D) software. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data regarding 100 colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) in 75 patients were collected from 2 prospective fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT)-guided microwave ablation (MWA) trials. The target CLMs and theoretical 5- and 10-mm margins were segmented and registered intraprocedurally and at 4-8 weeks after MWA contrast-enhanced CT (or magnetic resonance [MR] imaging) using the same methodology and 3D software. Tumor and 5- and 10-mm minimal margin (MM) volumes not covered by the AZ were defined as volumes of insufficient coverage (VICs). The intraprocedural and 4-8-week post-MWA VICs were compared as predictors of LTP using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 19.6 months (interquartile range, 7.97-36.5 months). VICs for 5- and 10-mm MMs were predictive of LTP at both time assessments. The highest accuracy for the prediction of LTP was documented with the intra-ablation 5-mm VIC (area under the curve [AUC], 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.89). LTP for a VIC of 6-10-mm margin category was 11.4% compared with 4.3% for >10-mm margin category (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A 3D 5-mm MM is a critical endpoint of thermal ablation, whereas optimal local tumor control is noted with a 10-mm MM. Higher AUCs for prediction of LTP were achieved for intraprocedural evaluation than for the 4-8-week postablation 3D evaluation of the AZ.

Randomized Prospective Trial of Epidural Analgesia after Open Hepatectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether patient-controlled epidural analgesia (PCEA) improves postoperative pain during ambulation following elective open hepatectomy. BACKGROUND: Strategies to alleviate postoperative pain are a critical element of recovery after surgery. However, the optimal postoperative pain management strategy following open hepatectomy remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, nonblinded, randomized comparison of PCEA (intervention) versus intravenous patient-controlled analgesia (IV PCA; control) for postoperative pain following elective open hepatectomy. The primary end point was pain during ambulation on postoperative day (POD) 2. The study was powered to detect a clinically significant 2-point difference on the pain numeric rating scale (NRS). Secondary end points included pain at rest, morbidity, time to return of bowel function, and length of stay. RESULTS: From 2015 to 2020, 231 patients were randomized (116 patients in the PCEA arm and 115 in the IV PCA arm). The incidence of epidural failure was 3% (n=4/116), with no epidural-related complications. Patients in the PCEA arm had a <2-point difference in NRS pain scores during ambulation on POD 2 vs. IV PCA (median 4.0 vs. 5.0, P <0.001). There was no difference in overall complications between the PCEA and IV PCA arms (33% vs. 40%, P =0.276). Secondary outcomes, including pain scores at rest, were similar between the study arms. CONCLUSIONS: PCEA was safe following open hepatectomy and was associated with a small difference in pain with activity on POD 2 that did not reach our pre-specified definition of clinical significance.