Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the return on investment (ROI) of the New York Tobacco Control Programme (NY TCP). SETTING: New York and other states of the USA. INTERVENTIONS: NY TCP. OUTCOMES: Smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable healthcare expenditures (SAEs), smoking-attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLL), the dollar value of YLL and the ROI for healthcare expenditures and mortality. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a synthetic control method to estimate the effectiveness of NY TCP funding on smoking prevalence. The synthetic control method created a comparison group that best matched the adult smoking prevalence trend in New York state in the period prior to implementation of the NY TCP and compared smoking prevalence in the state to smoking prevalence in the synthetic control in the period after treatment (2001-2019). The synthetic control group represents what the trend in smoking prevalence in New York would have been had there been no tobacco control expenditures. The ROI was calculated as net savings for each outcome divided by net programme expenditures. RESULTS: Cumulative savings in SAE in New York from 2001 to 2019 amounted to US$13.2 billion. An estimated 41 771 smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) were averted in New York from 2001 to 2019, and an estimated 672 141 YLL averted as a result of NY TCP funding in the same period. From 2001 to 2019, the ROI for SAE in New York was approximately 14, the economic value ROI of the YLL due to SAD was nearly 145 and the combined ROI was almost 160. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found relatively large ROIs for the NY TCP, which suggests that the programme-which lowers SAE and saves lives-is an efficient use of public funds.

JUUL's 2019 Removal of Mint-Flavored Pods and Changes to the Retail Environment of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems in Florida and the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The increase in youth electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use coincided with JUUL's rapid rise, which prompted investigations and lawsuits aimed at this leading brand. In response, JUUL discontinued sweet flavors in late 2018, followed by mint flavors in November 2019. We assessed ENDS sales and prices at both the state and national level before and after JUUL's removal of mint flavors. AIMS AND METHODS: Nielsen retail sales data on ENDS products from convenience and food stores in 4-week aggregates were analyzed between January 2019 and January 2020 in Florida and the United States. Standardized units were created. Unit market share and growth rates were calculated for top brands and flavors in the periods before and after JUUL's mint removal. Average prices within brand and product type were calculated. RESULTS: Following JUUL's removal of mint in November 2019, JUUL's market share dropped from over 66% in Florida and the United States to 37.1% (Florida) and 55.1% (United States). In January 2020, the second leading brands were Puff Bar (15.0%) in Florida and Vuse (18.1%) in the United States. Mint market share decreased and share of all other flavor categories increased, particularly menthol and concept. Total ENDS sales increased in Florida but decreased in the United States. Average prices of ENDS devices decreased. CONCLUSIONS: While JUUL's actions led to a decline in its sales, Puff Bar emerged and menthol and concept flavors experienced growth. Findings also demonstrate how changes by influential brands differentially affect purchase patterns at the national and state level. IMPLICATIONS: These findings support the growing body of evidence that tobacco industry self-regulation, with selective flavor removal by the leading ENDS brand in this case, is insufficient to reduce total ENDS sales, including sales of flavored products which are preferred by youth. Results suggest that brand and flavor substitution compensated for the removal of mint JUUL pods. Understanding changes to the ENDS market in response to industry actions, at both the state and national level, can inform future regulation and interventions. These findings can also inform efforts to prevent and reduce youth ENDS use.

Sources of flavoured e-cigarettes among California youth and young adults: associations with local flavoured tobacco sales restrictions.

PURPOSE: This study compares access to flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes from retail, online and social sources among underage and young adult e-cigarette users who live in California jurisdictions that restrict sales of flavoured tobacco with the rest of the state. METHODS: An online survey used social media advertisements to recruit participants (n=3075, ages 15-29) who lived in one of nine jurisdictions that restrict sales (n=1539) or in the rest of state, and oversampled flavoured tobacco users. Focusing on past-month e-cigarette users (n=908), multilevel models tested whether access to flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes from retail, online and social sources differed by local law (yes/no) and age group (15-20 or older), controlling for other individual characteristics. RESULTS: The percent of underage users who obtained flavoured JUUL and other e-cigarettes in the past month was 33.6% and 31.2% from retail, 11.6% and 12.7% online, and 76.0% and 70.9% from social sources, respectively. Compared with underage and young adult users in the rest of California, those in localities that restrict the sales of flavoured tobacco were less likely to obtain flavoured JUUL from retail sources (Adjusted OR=0.54, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.80), but more likely to obtain it from social sources (Adjusted OR=1.55, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.35). The same pattern was observed for other brands of flavoured e-cigarettes. CONCLUSION: Although local laws may reduce access to flavoured e-cigarettes from retail sources, more comprehensive state or federal restrictions are recommended to close the loopholes for online sources. Dedicated efforts to curtail access from social sources are needed.

Impact of Local Flavored Tobacco Sales Restrictions on Policy-Related Attitudes and Tobacco Product Access.

BACKGROUND: As of September 2020, more than 300 state and local jurisdictions restrict the sales of flavored tobacco, with some including menthol. AIMS: To evaluate the impact of local ordinances restricting the sale of flavored tobacco, we surveyed Californians regarding policy support and perceived access to flavored tobacco. METHODS: In 2019, we conducted an online survey of 3,075 California youth and young adults recruited via social media, about half of whom lived in a policy jurisdiction. Logistic regressions assessed differences on propensity score-weighted outcomes, policy support, and perceived access. RESULTS: Most respondents indicated agreement with almost all policy support statements. Although policy respondents were less likely than rest-of-California respondents to report perceived difficulty in buying flavored cigars, flavored vape users in policy jurisdictions were more likely than those in the rest of California to report perceived difficulty in buying flavored e-liquid. Regardless of jurisdiction, certain priority subgroups were significantly more likely to report perceived difficulty in accessing flavored cigars, flavored vaping products, flavored e-liquid, and menthol cigarettes. DISCUSSION: With some exceptions, these findings demonstrate that among vape users in policy jurisdictions and priority subgroups, there is a higher likelihood of reporting perceived difficulty to access flavored tobacco products. CONCLUSIONS: Findings might be an early indication of shifts in social norms about flavored tobacco products in California, which could gain traction as local sales restriction ordinances proliferate throughout the state and a statewide flavored-tobacco sales restriction goes into effect.

Final Evaluation Findings for This Free Life, a 3-Year, Multi-Market Tobacco Public Education Campaign for Gender and Sexual Minority Young Adults in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: This Free Life was the first multi-market, primarily digital campaign designed to change tobacco-related beliefs among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) young adults. Our evaluation sought to determine whether campaign exposure resulted in changes in tobacco-related beliefs. We summarize awareness and receptivity at the conclusion of the campaign and assess the effect of campaign exposure on tobacco-related beliefs in campaign treatment markets compared with control markets. AIMS AND METHODS: Twenty-four US designated market areas were selected to receive the campaign or serve as control markets. A baseline survey was conducted in 2016, with six follow-up surveys conducted approximately 6 months apart over the course of the 3-year campaign. 12 324 LGBT young adult survey participants were recruited via intercept interviews and social media. Campaign effects on outcomes were estimated using difference-in-difference panel regression models, with p-values corrected for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: Brand and ad awareness peaked in treatment markets approximately 2.5 years into the 3-year campaign and were significantly higher in treatment than control markets. Brand equity and ad receptivity were generally high and similar across LGBT subgroups. There were small but significant campaign effects on five tobacco-related beliefs, with difference-in-difference estimates ranging from 1.9 to 5.6 percentage points. CONCLUSIONS: This Free Life, the first multi-market tobacco public education campaign for LGBT young adults, reached and resonated with a large and diverse population, and had a small effect on beliefs involving social aspects of smoking. These findings should inform future communication efforts aimed at reducing tobacco use among LGBT young adults. IMPLICATIONS: Modest overall campaign effects suggest that further research on effective campaign messaging and delivery to LGBT young adults is needed. Campaign messaging style, delivery channels, and targeted outcomes likely contributed to these findings. Health communication efforts for LGBT young adults should consider the limitations of digital media in achieving sufficient exposure. Ad style and content optimized for a digital environment is an area that will benefit from further development.

Discrimination, identity connectedness and tobacco use in a sample of sexual and gender minority young adults.

INTRODUCTION: Studies show that tobacco use among sexual and gender minority (SGM) populations is disproportionately higher than heterosexual or cisgender populations. However, few studies have examined tobacco use among SGM subgroups by race/ethnicity or associations between SGM-specific discrimination and connection to SGM identity and tobacco use. METHODS: This study analysed survey data from 11 313 SGM (gay, lesbian, bisexual, other sexual minority or gender minority) young adults in the USA and reported current cigarette, e-cigarette, other tobacco (cigar, smokeless tobacco, hookah) and polytobacco use. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate associations between (a) SGM subgroup, race/ethnicity, SGM-specific discrimination and SGM identity connection and (b) each tobacco use outcome (vs never use of tobacco). We conducted postestimation testing to assess predicted probabilities of tobacco use against the sample average. RESULTS: Lesbian females (particularly black lesbian females) had higher-than-average probability of polytobacco use. White bisexual and lesbian participants had higher-than-average probability of cigarette and e-cigarette use, respectively. Higher levels of discrimination were associated with polytobacco use. Higher levels of identity connectedness were protective against certain tobacco use behaviours among gender minority participants and participants with high levels of discrimination experience. CONCLUSIONS: We found variations in tobacco use by SGM subgroups overall and by race/ethnicity. Discrimination may be a risk factor for certain tobacco use behaviours. However, SGM identity connectedness may be protective against tobacco use among gender minority individuals and individuals experiencing SGM-specific discrimination. These findings can inform targeted approaches to reach SGM subgroups at greater risk of tobacco use.

JUUL and other e-cigarettes: Socio-demographic factors associated with use and susceptibility in California.

This study examined which socio-demographic factors are associated with susceptibility (lack of commitment to avoid future use), past-12-month and past-30-day use of JUUL and other e-cigarettes, and reasons for and against using JUUL. An online survey of 3,075 Californians ages 15-29, including 24.3% who identified as LGBTQ, were recruited via social media in January-March 2019. Multi-level weighted logistic regression models suggest that LGBTQ participants were more likely to be susceptible to JUUL [AOR = 2.11 (1.60, 2.79) (parentheses include 95% Confidence Intervals)] and other e-cigarettes [AOR = 2.31 (1.75, 3.05)], and more likely to use JUUL [AOR = 1.27 (1.02, 1.58)] and other e-cigarettes [AOR = 1.66 (1.35, 2.05)] in the past 12 months. Susceptibility to using JUUL was more likely among adolescents (ages 15-17) [AOR = 1.72 (1.30, 2.28)] and young adults (ages 18-20) [AOR = 1.26 (1.00,1.58)] than adults (ages 21-29). At the community level, living in jurisdictions with higher median household income was associated with a higher likelihood of being susceptible to using JUUL and other e-cigarettes. Compared to non-Hispanic Whites, Asian/Pacific Islanders were less likely to use JUUL [AOR = 0.68 (0.54, 0.86)] and other e-cigarettes [AOR = 0.60 (0.48, 0.76)] in the past 12 months. Past-30-day JUUL use was more likely among males than females [AOR = 1.44 (1.11, 1.88)]. Common reasons for using JUUL were: friends' use, flavors, "safer" than cigarettes, no one will notice, and nicotine rush is greater than other devices. Common reasons against using JUUL were: harmful to self/others, contains nicotine and is addictive. E-cigarette prevention and cessation efforts should include tailored messaging for people who identify as LGBTQ and reinforce reasons for not vaping nicotine.

Implementation of a comprehensive flavoured tobacco product sales restriction and retail tobacco sales.

OBJECTIVE: San Francisco's comprehensive restriction on flavoured tobacco sales applies to all flavours (including menthol), all products and all retailers (without exemptions). This study evaluates associations of policy implementation with changes in tobacco sales in San Francisco and in two California cities without any sales restriction. METHODS: Using weekly retail sales data (July 2015 through December 2019), we computed sales volume in equivalent units within product categories and the proportion of flavoured tobacco. An interrupted time series analysis estimated within-city changes associated with the policy's effective and enforcement dates, separately by product category for San Francisco and comparison cities, San Jose and San Diego. RESULTS: Predicted average weekly flavoured tobacco sales decreased by 96% from before the policy to after enforcement (p<0.05), and to very low levels across all products, including cigars with concept-flavour names (eg, Jazz). Average weekly flavoured tobacco sales did not change in San Jose and decreased by 10% in San Diego (p<0.05). Total tobacco sales decreased by 25% in San Francisco, 8% in San Jose and 17% in San Diego (each, p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: San Francisco's comprehensive restriction virtually eliminated flavoured tobacco sales and decreased total tobacco sales in mainstream retailers. Unlike other US flavoured tobacco policy evaluations, there was no evidence of substitution to concept-flavour named products. Results may be attributed to San Francisco Department of Health's self-education and rigorous retailer education, as well as the law's rebuttable presumption of a product as flavoured based on manufacturer communication.

Differential Relationship between Tobacco Control Policies and U.S. Adult Current Smoking by Poverty.

The study's purpose was to identify differences in the relationship between tobacco control policies and smoking by poverty. We matched state smoke-free air law coverage (SFALs), tobacco control funding (TCF), and cigarette taxes with individual current smoking and demographics from supplements to the Current Population Survey (1985-2015). We regressed (logistic) smoking on policy variables, poverty (<138% of poverty line versus ≥138% of poverty line), interactions of policy and poverty, and covariates, presenting beta coefficients instead of odds ratios because it is difficult to interpret interactions using odds ratios (they are ratios of odds ratios). We coded SFALs as (1) proportion of state covered by 100% workplace, restaurant and bar laws (SFAL-All) or (2) proportion of state covered by workplace laws (SFAL-WP) and proportion covered by restaurant or bar laws (SFAL-RB). In the SFAL-All model, SFAL-All (Beta coeff: -0.03, 95% CI: -0.06, -0.002), tax (Coeff: -0.06, 95% CI: -0.07, -0.05), and TCF (Coeff: -0.01, 95% CI: -0.01, -0.001) were associated with less smoking. In this model, the interaction of SFAL-All by poverty was significant (Coeff: 0.08, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.13). In the SFAL-WP/RB model, SFAL-RB (Coeff: -0.05, 95% CI: -0.08, -0.02), tax (Coeff: -0.05, 95% CI: -0.06, -0.04), and TCF (Coeff: -0.01, 95% CI: -0.01, -0.00) were significant. In the same model, SFAL-WP (Coeff: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.15), SFAL-RB (Coeff: -0.14, 95% CI: -0.19, -0.09), and TCF (Coeff: 0.01, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.02) interacted with poverty. Tax by poverty was of borderline significance in this model (Coeff = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.00, 0.04, p = 0.050). Among adults, SFALs, TCF, and tax were associated with less current smoking, and SFALs and TCF had differential relationships with smoking by poverty.