RESUMEN
Forecasting volcanic ash atmospheric pathways is of utmost importance for aviation. Volcanic ash can interfere with aircraft navigational instruments and can damage engine parts. Early warning systems, activated after volcanic eruptions can alleviate the impacts on aviation by providing forecasts of the volcanic ash plume dispersion. The quality of these short-term forecasts is subject to the accuracy of the meteorological wind fields used for the initialization of regional models. Here, we use wind profiling data from the first high spectral resolution lidar in space, Aeolus, to examine the impact of measured wind fields on regional NWP and subsequent volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, focusing on the case of Etna's eruption on March 2021. The results from this case study demonstrate a significant improvement of the volcanic ash simulation when using Aeolus-assimilated meteorological fields, with differences in wind speed reaching up to 8 m/s when compared to the control run. When comparing the volcanic ash forecast profiles with downwind surface-based aerosol lidar observations, the modeled field is consistent with the measurements only when Aeolus winds are assimilated. This result clearly demonstrates the potential of Aeolus and highlights the necessity of future wind profiling satellite missions for improving volcanic ash forecasting and hence aviation safety.
RESUMEN
The Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar on board the International Space Station (ISS) operated from 10 February 2015 to 30 October 2017 providing range-resolved vertical backscatter profiles of Earth's atmosphere at 1064 and 532 nm. The CATS instrument design and ISS orbit lead to a higher 1064 nm signal-to-noise ratio than previous space-based lidars, allowing for direct atmospheric calibration of the 1064 nm signals. Nighttime CATS Version 3-00 data were calibrated by scaling the measured data to a model of the expected atmospheric backscatter between 22 and 26 km above mean sea level (AMSL). The CATS atmospheric model is constructed using molecular backscatter profiles derived from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) re-analysis data and aerosol scattering ratios measured by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The nighttime normalization altitude region was chosen to simultaneously minimize aerosol loading and variability within the CATS data frame, which extends from 28 km to -2 km AMSL. Daytime CATS Version 3-00 data were calibrated through comparisons with nighttime measurements of the layer integrated attenuated total backscatter (iATB) from strongly scattering, rapidly attenuating opaque cirrus clouds. The CATS nighttime 1064 nm attenuated total backscatter (ATB) uncertainties for clouds and aerosols are primarily related to the uncertainties in the CATS nighttime calibration technique, which are estimated to be ~9%. Median CATS V3-00 1064 nm ATB relative uncertainty at night within cloud and aerosol layers is 7%, slightly lower than these calibration uncertainty estimates. CATS median daytime 1064 nm ATB relative uncertainty is 21% in cloud and aerosol layers, similar to the estimated 16-18% uncertainty in the CATS daytime cirrus cloud calibration transfer technique. Coincident daytime comparisons between CATS and the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) during the CATS-CALIPSO Airborne Validation Experiment (CCAVE) project show good agreement in mean ATB profiles for clear-air regions. Eight nighttime comparisons between CATS and the PollyXT ground based lidars also show good agreement in clear-air regions between 3-12 km, with CATS having a mean ATB of 19.7 % lower than PollyXT. Agreement between the two instruments (~7%) is even better within an aerosol layer. Six-month comparisons of nighttime ATB values between CATS and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) also show that iATB comparisons of opaque cirrus clouds agree to within 19%. Overall, CATS has demonstrated that direct calibration of the 1064 nm channel is possible from a space based lidar using the atmospheric normalization technique.