Downstream health impacts of employment losses during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The Canadian workforce has experienced significant employment losses during the COVID-19 pandemic, in part as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow COVID-19 transmission. Health consequences are likely to result from these job losses, but without historical precedent for the current economic shutdown they are challenging to plan for. Our study aimed to use population risk models to quantify potential downstream health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform public health planning to minimize future health burden. METHODS: The impact of COVID-19 job losses on future premature mortality and high-resource health care utilization (HRU) was estimated using an economic model of Canadian COVID-19 lockdowns and validated population risk models. Five-year excess premature mortality and HRU were estimated by age and sex to describe employment-related health consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns in the Canadian population. RESULTS: With federal income supplementation like the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit, we estimate that each month of economic lockdown will result in 5.6 new high-resource health care system users (HRUs), and 4.1 excess premature deaths, per 100,000, over the next 5 years. These effects were concentrated in ages 45-64, and among males 18-34. Without income supplementation, the health consequences were approximately twice as great in terms of both HRUs and premature deaths. CONCLUSION: Employment losses associated with COVID-19 countermeasures may have downstream implications for health. Public health responses should consider financially vulnerable populations at high risk of downstream health outcomes.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: La population active canadienne a connu d'importantes pertes d'emplois durant la pandémie de COVID-19, en partie en raison des interventions non pharmaceutiques menées pour ralentir la transmission du virus. Ces pertes d'emplois auront probablement des conséquences pour la santé, mais en l'absence d'un précédent historique au ralentissement économique actuel, il est difficile de planifier quoi faire pour atténuer ces conséquences. Notre étude visait à chiffrer les éventuels effets sanitaires de la pandémie de COVID-19 en aval à l'aide de modèles de risque pour la population et à éclairer la planification en santé publique afin de réduire le futur fardeau pour la santé. MéTHODE: Nous avons estimé l'impact des pertes d'emplois dues à la COVID-19 sur les chiffres futurs de mortalité prématurée et d'utilisation élevée des soins de santé (UESS) à l'aide d'un modèle économique des confinements dus à la COVID-19 au Canada et de modèles de risque pour la population validés. Nous avons estimé la surmortalité prématurée et l'UESS par âge et par sexe dans cinq ans afin de décrire les conséquences pour la santé des effets sur l'emploi des confinements dus à la COVID-19 dans la population canadienne. RéSULTATS: Avec les mesures fédérales de supplémentation du revenu comme la Prestation canadienne d'urgence, nous estimons qu'avec chaque mois de confinement économique, il y aura 5,6 nouveaux grands usagers du système de soins de santé (GUSSS) et 4,1 décès prématurés supplémentaires pour 100 000 habitants au cours des cinq prochaines années. Ces effets seront concentrés dans la tranche d'âge des 45 à 64 ans et chez les hommes de 18 à 34 ans. Sans supplémentation du revenu, les conséquences pour la santé seront environ le double, tant pour le nombre de GUSSS que de décès prématurés. CONCLUSION: Les pertes d'emplois associées aux mesures de prévention de la COVID-19 pourraient avoir des conséquences pour la santé en aval. Les interventions de santé publique devraient donc tenir compte des populations financièrement vulnérables à risque élevé de connaître des problèmes de santé en aval.

Association between post-traumatic stress disorder and alcohol-related hospitalizations among World Trade Center Health Registry enrollees.

BACKGROUND: We examined both the impact of 9/11-related exposures and repeated assessments of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on the risk of alcohol-related hospitalizations (ARH) among individuals exposed to the World Trade Center (WTC) disaster. METHODS: 9/11-related exposures (witnessing traumatic events, physical injuries, or both) were measured at baseline and PTSD symptoms were assessed at four time points (2003-2016) using the PTSD Checklist-17 among 53,174 enrollees in the WTC Health Registry. ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes were used to identify ARHs (2003-2016) through linked administrative data. For the effect of 9/11-related exposures on ARH, Cox proportional-hazards regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI); for time-varying PTSD, extended Cox proportional-hazards regression was used. Models were adjusted fora priori confounders and stratified by enrollee group (uniformed rescue and recovery worker (RRW), non-uniformed RRW, and community members). Person-time was calculated from baseline or 9/12/2001 to the earliest of ARH, withdrawal, death, or end of follow-up (12/31/2016). RESULTS: Across all 9/11-related exposures, community members and non-uniformed RRWs were at increased risk of ARHs; uniformed RRWs were not. In adjusted models, PTSD was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization across all groups [HR, (95 % CI): uniformed RRWs: 2.6, (1.9, 3.6); non-uniformed RRWs: 2.1, (1.7, 2.7); and community members: 2.6, (2.1, 3.2)]. CONCLUSIONS: Among certain enrollee groups, 9/11-related exposures are associated with an increased risk of ARH and that PTSD is strongly associated with ARHs among all enrollee groups. Findings may assist the clinical audience in improving screening and treatment.

Confirming mortality in a longitudinal exposure cohort: optimizing National Death Index search result processing.

PURPOSE: The National Death Index (NDI) is an important resource for mortality ascertainment. Methods selected to process NDI search results are rarely described in studies using linked data and can have an impact on resources and mortality ascertainment. We evaluate methods to process NDI search results among a 9/11-exposed cohort-the World Trade Center Health Registry (Registry). METHODS: We describe three approaches to process search results (NDI-recommended cutoff points [NDIc]; National Program of Cancer Registries [NPCR] algorithm, and modified National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health algorithm [mNIOSH]). We calculate percent agreement, positive predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, and quantify the burden of manual review to compare the approaches. RESULTS: Of 51,158 Registry enrollees submitted for linkage, 9449 enrollee-level and 17,909 record-level matches were identified. NPCR and mNIOSH were highly concordant (97.1%); more record pairs required manual review for mNIOSH (mNIOSH: 2.7% and NPCR: 1.8%). NDIc sensitivity was 82.9%, with differences observed by race and ethnicity (Asian: 74.4% and White: 86.1%). CONCLUSIONS: NPCR algorithm minimized false matches and reduced the manual review burden. NDIc had nonrandom distribution of missed matches and low sensitivity. NDI search processing methods have important implications for resulting linked data; measures of linkage quality should be available to data users.

Association Between Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Mortality Among Responders and Civilians Following the September 11, 2001, Disaster.

Importance: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been associated with increased mortality, primarily in studies of veterans. The World Trade Center Health Registry (Registry) provides a unique opportunity to study the association between PTSD and mortality among a population exposed to the World Trade Center attacks in New York, New York, on September 11, 2001 (9/11). Objectives: To assess whether 9/11-related probable PTSD (PTSD) is associated with increased mortality risk, as well as whether this association differs when including repeated measures of PTSD over time vs a single baseline assessment. Design, Setting, and Participants: A longitudinal cohort study of 63 666 Registry enrollees (29 270 responders and 34 396 civilians) was conducted from September 5, 2003, to December 31, 2016, with PTSD assessments at baseline (wave 1: 2003-2004) and 3 follow-up time points (wave 2: 2006-2007, wave 3: 2011-2012, wave 4: 2015-2016). Data analyses were conducted from December 4, 2018, to May 20, 2019. Exposures: Posttraumatic stress disorder was defined using the 17-item PTSD Checklist-Specific (PCL-S) self-report measure (score ≥50) at each wave (waves 1-4). Baseline PTSD was defined using wave 1 PCL-S, and time-varying PTSD was defined using the PCL-S assessments from all 4 waves. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality outcomes were ascertained through National Death Index linkage from 2003 to 2016 and defined as all-cause, cardiovascular, and external-cause mortality. Results: Of 63 666 enrollees (38 883 men [61.1%]; mean [SD] age at 9/11, 40.4 [10.4] years), 6689 (10.8%) had PTSD at baseline (responders: 2702 [9.5%]; civilians: 3987 [12.0%]). Participants who were middle aged (2022 [12.5%]), female (3299 [13.8%]), non-Latino black (1295 [17.0%]), or Latino (1835 [22.2%]) were more likely to have PTSD. During follow-up, 2349 enrollees died (including 230 external-cause deaths and 487 cardiovascular deaths). Among all enrollees in time-varying analyses, PTSD was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular, and external-cause mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) of greater magnitude compared with analyses examining baseline PTSD. Among responders, time-varying PTSD was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause (AHR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.58-2.32), cardiovascular (AHR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.25-3.04), and external-cause (AHR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.47-3.91) mortality. Among civilians, time-varying PTSD was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause (AHR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.28-1.85), cardiovascular (AHR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.15-2.58), and external-cause (AHR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.06-4.19) mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: The risk of mortality differed in examination of baseline PTSD vs repeated measures of PTSD over time, suggesting that longitudinal data should be used where possible. Comparable findings between responders and civilians suggest that 9/11-related PTSD is associated with an increased mortality risk.

Pulmonary Fibrosis among World Trade Center Responders: Results from the WTC Health Registry Cohort.

Dust created by the collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) towers on 9/11 included metals and toxicants that have been linked to an increased risk of pulmonary fibrosis (PF) in the literature. Little has been reported on PF among WTC responders. This report used self-reported physician diagnosis of PF with an unknown sub-type to explore the association between levels of WTC dust exposure and PF. We included 19,300 WTC responders, enrolled in the WTC Health Registry in 2003⁻2004, who were followed for 11 years from 2004 to 2015. Exposure was defined primarily by intensity and duration of exposure to WTC dust/debris and work on the debris pile. Stratified Cox regression was used to assess the association. We observed 73 self-reported physician-diagnosed PF cases, with a PF incidence rate of 36.7/100,000 person-years. The adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) of PF was higher in those with a medium (AHR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.1⁻5.8) and very high level of exposure (AHR = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0⁻10.4), compared to those with low exposure. A test for exposure-response trend was statistically significant (Ptrend = 0.004). Future research on WTC dust exposure and PF would benefit from using data from multiple WTC Health Program responder cohorts for increased statistical power and clinically confirmed cases.

Association of socioeconomic position with smoking and mortality: the contribution of early life circumstances in the 1946 birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: A large part of the socioeconomic mortality gradient can be statistically accounted for by social patterning of adult health behaviours. However, this statistical explanation does not consider the early life origins of unhealthy behaviours and increased mortality risk. METHODS: Analysis is based on 2132 members of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development with mortality follow-up and complete data. Smoking behaviour was summarised by pack-years of exposure. Socioeconomic circumstances were measured in childhood (father's social class (age 4), maternal education (age 6)) and age 26 (education attainment, home ownership, head of household social class). We estimated the direct effect of early circumstances, the indirect effect through smoking and the independent direct effect of smoking on inequality in all-cause mortality from age 26 to 66. RESULTS: Mortality risk was higher in those with lower socioeconomic position at age 26, with a sex-adjusted HR (relative index of inequality) of 1.97 (95% CI 1.18 to 3.28). Smoking and early life socioeconomic indicators together explained 74% of the socioeconomic gradient in mortality (the gradient). Early life circumstances explained 47% of the gradient, 23.5% directly and 23.0% indirectly through smoking. The explanatory power of smoking behaviour for the gradient was reduced from 50.8% to 28% when early life circumstances were added to the model. CONCLUSIONS: Early life socioeconomic circumstances contributed importantly to social inequality in adult mortality. Our life-course model focusing on smoking provides evidence that social inequalities in health will persist unless prevention strategies tackle the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage and risk.