How to improve the surveillance of the Taliban ban's impact on European drug markets.

In April 2023, the Taliban banned poppy cultivation and the trade of all narcotics. This caused a 95% reduction in opium production. Usually, that would be good news. But there is a substantial worry: synthetic opioids might fill the void left by heroin. This is concerning because these drugs have led to health emergencies in areas where they are prevalent. This paper highlights the limitations of the current drug surveillance system in Europe and proposes improvements. It argues that reliance on secondary data is insufficient. Instead, we need to interview a sentinel group of people who inject drugs and adjust city-level sentinel systems, such as wastewater analysis, to specifically track the spread of synthetic opioids. Without these proactive steps, we risk only noticing a transition from heroin to synthetic opioids after it has occurred, with its harmful impacts already in place.

Disrupting drive-by download networks on Twitter.

This paper tests disruption strategies in Twitter networks containing malicious URLs used in drive-by download attacks. Cybercriminals use popular events that attract a large number of Twitter users to infect and propagate malware by using trending hashtags and creating misleading tweets to lure users to malicious webpages. Due to Twitter's 280 character restriction and automatic shortening of URLs, it is particularly susceptible to the propagation of malware involved in drive-by download attacks. Considering the number of online users and the network formed by retweeting a tweet, a cybercriminal can infect millions of users in a short period. Policymakers and researchers have struggled to develop an efficient network disruption strategy to stop malware propagation effectively. We define an efficient strategy as one that considers network topology and dependency on network resilience, where resilience is the ability of the network to continue to disseminate information even when users are removed from it. One of the challenges faced while curbing malware propagation on online social platforms is understanding the cybercriminal network spreading the malware. Combining computational modelling and social network analysis, we identify the most effective strategy for disrupting networks of malicious URLs. Our results emphasise the importance of specific network disruption parameters such as network and emotion features, which have proved to be more effective in disrupting malicious networks compared to random strategies. In conclusion, disruption strategies force cybercriminal networks to become more vulnerable by strategically removing malicious users, which causes successful network disruption to become a long-term effort.

The success rate of online illicit drug transactions during a global pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA; 2020) observed an increased use of cryptomarkets, which led them to question whether cryptomarkets constituted a more convenient channel via which to distribute illicit drugs without any in-person contact. However, as more countries' borders closed, the likelihood is that cryptomarkets have been negatively impacted. We aim to measure and understand the success rate of transactions on cryptomarkets during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, through recourse to self-reported data that documents the outcome of cryptomarket transactions. METHODS: To collect self-reported data on cryptomarket transactions, we launched a platform where participants can enter information about their prior activities on cryptomarkets. The sample consists of 591 valid self-reports that were received between January 1st, 2020 and August 21st, 2020. RESULTS: The number of unsuccessful transactions increased concurrently with the global spread of the pandemic. Both the international and inter-continental nature of the transactions and the severity of the crisis in the vendor's country are significantly associated with delivery failure. CONCLUSIONS: Drug cryptomarkets may have been disrupted due to the pandemic. The results lead to two opposing explanations for unsuccessful transactions. One explanation for the lower success rate is the inability of drug dealers to deliver on past promises that were made in good faith, while the second points towards opportunistic and abusive behaviour by drug dealers.

Characterising the structure of the largest online commercial sex network in the UK: observational study with implications for STI prevention.

This study analyses large-scale online data to examine the characteristics of a national commercial sex network of off-street female sex workers and their male clients to identify implications for public health policy and practice. We collected sexual contact information from the largest online community dedicated to reviewing sex workers' services in the UK. We built the sexual network using reviews reported between January 2014 and December 2017. We then quantified network parameters using social network analysis measures. The network is composed of 6477 vertices with 59% of them concentred in a giant component clustered around London and Milton Keynes. We found minimal disassortative mixing by degree between sex workers and their clients, and that a few clients and sex workers are highly connected whilst the majority only have one or few sexual contacts. Finally, our simulation models suggested that prevention strategies targeting both sex workers and clients with high centrality scores are the most effective in reducing network connectedness and average closeness centrality scores, thus limiting the transmission of STIs.

Preliminary findings of the impact of COVID-19 on drugs crypto markets.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented consequences on the world economy. The impact of the pandemic on illicit drug market remains scant. We expose the potential consequences the COVID-19 pandemic could have on the ability of people who use drugs to source their illicit drugs via cryptomarkets. METHODS: We analyzed 262 self-reported submissions of illicit drug transactions on the darkweb. The self-reports include the date of the transaction, the types of illicit drugs bought/sold, and whether the shipment of the illicit drugs succeeded, had issues (ex. unusually long delivery, an error in the type of drug shipped, quantity or concentration of the drug), or failed. RESULTS: Between January 1st, 2020 and March 21, 2020, successful deliveries represented 60% to 100% of transactions. Starting on March 21 however, the share of shipments that had issues or failed increased rapidly and represented a majority of all shipments. At the peak of the market disruption, the successful deliveries represented only 21% of all transactions. CONCLUSION: Illicit drug transactions on the darkweb were disrupted at the same time as lockdowns were put in place in the United States and in the United Kingdom. While no causation link can be established, the correlation suggests that lockdowns could have disrupted drug cryptomarkets activities. We discuss the market disruption in light of the literature.

Exploring the perils of cross-national comparisons of drug prevalence: The effect of survey modality.

BACKGROUND: There is significant interest in comparing countries on many different indicators of social problems and policies. Cross-national comparisons of drug prevalence and policies are often hampered by differences in the approach used to reach respondents and the methods used to obtain information in national surveys. The paper explores how much these differences could affect cross-country comparisons. METHODS: This study reports prevalence of drug use according to the most recent national household survey and then adjusts estimates as if all national surveys used the same methodology. The analysis focuses on European countries for which the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction reports data, the United States, Canada, and Australia. Adjustment factors are based on US data. FINDINGS: Adjusting for modality differences appears likely to modestly affect the rankings of countries by prevalence, but to an extent that could be important for comparisons. For example, general population surveys suggest that the US had some of the highest cannabis and cocaine prevalence rates circa 2012, but this is partially driven by the use of a modality known to produce higher prevalence estimates. This analysis shows that country rankings are partly an artifact of the mode of interview used in national general population surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary efforts suggest that cross-national prevalence comparisons, policy analyses and, other projects such as estimating the global burden of disease could be improved by adjusting estimates from drug use surveys for differences in modality. Research is needed to create more authoritative adjustment factors.