Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Climate change is a global phenomenon species are experiencing, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes directly depend on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits. METHODS: We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally-explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change and one no-change scenarios, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (λ) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on saguaro's future. KEY RESULTS: We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be differential across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.

Local and Regional Dynamics of Native Maize Seed Lot Use by Small-Scale Producers and Their Impact on Transgene Presence in Three Mexican States.

Mexico harbors over 50% of maize's genetic diversity in the Americas. Native maize varieties are actively managed by small-scale producers within a diverse array of cultivation systems. Seed lot use, exchange and admixture has consequences for the in situ conservation of such varieties. Here we analyze native maize seed management dynamics from 906 small-scale producers surveyed in three Mexican states: Mexico City, Oaxaca and Chiapas. Furthermore, we analyze how their management practices can relate to transgene presence, which was experimentally documented for maize samples associated with the applied surveys. Through a data mining approach, we investigated which practices might be related with a higher probability of transgene presence. The variables found to have a strong spatial association with transgene presence were: for Mexico City, maize producers with larger parcels; for Oaxaca, producer's age (43-46 years) and the sale of seed; for Chiapas, the use of agricultural machinery and younger producers (37-43 years). Additionally, transgene presence and frequency within the socioeconomic regions of Oaxaca and Chiapas was analyzed. In Oaxaca, higher transgene frequencies occurred in regions where transgene presence had been previously reported. In Chiapas, the border regions with Guatemala as well as a region where reproduction of improved seed takes place, the highest proportion of positive samples were found. A detailed mapping of regional seed markets and seed exchange sites together with deployment of national and local biosecurity measures, could help prevent the further spread of transgenes into native maize varieties, as well as improve conservation efforts.

Ureterocele Diagnosed With Point-of-Care Ultrasound.

Sepsis is a major cause of mortality as a life-threatening condition that arises when the body's response to an infection injures its own tissue, and in the past decade, emphasis has been placed on early treatment to decrease mortality. In this case, we discuss the presentation of a young patient with sepsis due to acute complicated pyelonephritis with an obstructing ureterocele diagnosed by point-of-care ultrasound and explore the use of point-of-care ultrasound in sepsis.

Stories told by corals, algae, and sea-urchins in a Mesoamerican coral reef: degradation trumps succession.

Understanding the mechanisms that allow the permanence of coral reefs and the constancy of their characteristics is necessary to alleviate the effects of chronic environmental changes. After a disturbance, healthy coral reefs display trajectories that allow regaining coral cover and the establishment of framework building corals. Through a comparative approach, in a patch reef partially affected by a ship grounding, we analyzed the successional trajectories in affected and unaffected sectors. Fleshy algae (which do not promote the recruitment of corals) dominated the reef surface irrespective of the impact of the ship grounding incident. Acropora species had near-zero contributions to community structure, whereas non-framework building corals like Porites sp. had a slightly higher recruitment. Cover of coral and calcareous crustose algae decreased over time, and neither the latter nor adult coral colonies had any effect on the occurrence probabilities of small corals. Sea urchin (Diadema antillarum) densities were generally low, and thus unlikely to contribute to reverting algal dominance. The successional trajectories of the community in the impacted and non-impacted sectors of the coral patch reef agree with the inhibition successional model, leading to the development of a degraded state dominated by fleshy algae. It is probable that the stability and resilience of this degraded state are high due to the ability of fleshy algae to monopolize space, along with low coral recovery potential.

Quantifying phenological diversity: a framework based on Hill numbers theory.

Background: Despite the great concern triggered by the environmental crisis worldwide, the loss of temporal key functions and processes involved in biodiversity maintenance has received little attention. Species are restricted in their life cycles by environmental variables because of their physiological and behavioral properties; thus, the timing and duration of species' presence and their activities vary greatly between species within a community. Despite the ecological relevance of such variation, there is currently no measure that summarizes the key temporal aspects of biological diversity and allows comparisons of community phenological patterns. Here, we propose a measure that synthesizes variability of phenological patterns using the Hill numbers-based attribute diversity framework. Methods: We constructed a new phenological diversity measure based on the aforementioned framework through pairwise overlapping distances, which was supplemented with wavelet analysis. The Hill numbers approach was chosen as an adequate way to define a set of diversity values of different order q, a parameter that determines the sensitivity of the diversity measure to abundance. Wavelet transform analysis was used to model continuous variables from incomplete data sets for different phenophases. The new measure, which we call Phenological Hill numbers (PD), considers the decouplings of phenophases through an overlapping area value between pairs of species within the community. PD was first tested through simulations with varying overlap in phenophase magnitude and intensity and varying number of species, and then by using one real data set. Results: PD maintains the diversity patterns of order q as in any other diversity measure encompassed by the Hill numbers framework. Minimum PD values in the simulated data sets reflect a lack of differentiation in the phenological curves of the community over time; by contrast, the maximum PD values reflected the most diverse simulations in which phenological curves were equally distributed over time. PD values were consistent with the homogeneous distribution of the intensity and concurrence of phenophases over time, both in the simulated and the real data set. Discussion: PD provides an efficient, readily interpretable and comparable measure that summarizes the variety of phenological patterns observed in ecological communities. PD retains the diversity patterns of order q characteristic of all diversity measures encompassed by the distance-based Hill numbers framework. In addition, wavelet transform analysis proved useful for constructing a continuous phenological curve. This methodological approach to quantify phenological diversity produces simple and intuitive values for the examination of phenological diversity and can be widely applied to any taxon or community's phenological traits.

Episodic recruitment in the saguaro cactus is driven by multidecadal periodicities.

Each year, an individual mature large saguaro cactus produces about one million seeds in attractive juicy fruits that lure seed predators and seed dispersers to a 3-month feast. From the million seeds produced, however, only a few will persist into mature saguaros. A century of research on saguaro population dynamics has led to the conclusion that saguaro recruitment is an episodic event that depends on the convergence of suitable conditions for survival during the critical early stages. Because most data have been collected in Arizona, particularly in the surroundings of Tucson, most research has relied on a limited amount of environmental variation. In this study, we upscaled this knowledge on saguaro recruitment to a regional scale with a new method that used the inverse-growth modeling of 1,487 saguaros belonging to 13 populations in a latitudinal gradient ranging from arid desert to tropical thornscrub forest in Sonora, Mexico. Using generalized linear and additive mixed models, we created two 110-yr-long saguaro recruitment curves: one driven only by previous size, and the second driven by size, drought, and soil structure. We found evidence that saguaro recruitment is indeed episodic, with periodicities of 20-30 yr, possibly related to strong El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Our results suggest that saguaros rely on multidecadal periodic pulses of good beneficial years to incorporate new individuals into their populations. Inverse-growth modeling can be used in a wide variety of plant species to study their recruitment dynamics.

Population projections of an endangered cactus suggest little impact of climate change.

Population projections coupled with downscaled climate projections are a powerful tool that allows predicting future population dynamics of vulnerable plants in the face of a changing climate. Traditional approaches used to predict the vulnerability of plants to climate change (e.g. species distribution models) fail to mechanistically describe the basis of a population's dynamics and thus cannot be expected to correctly predict its temporal trends. In this study, we used a 23-year demographic dataset of the acuña cactus, an endangered species, to predict its population dynamics to the end of the century. We used integral projection models to describe its vital rates and population dynamics in relation to plant volume and key climatic variables. We used the resulting climate-driven IPM along with climatic projections to predict the population growth rates from 1991 to 2099. We found the average population growth rate of this population between 1991 and 2013 to be 0.70 (95% CI 0.61-0.79). This result confirms that the population of acuña cactus has been declining and that this decline is due to demographic structure and climate conditions. However, the projection model also predicts that, up to 2080, the population will remain relatively stable mainly due to the survival of its existing adult individuals. Notwithstanding, the long-term viability of the populations can only be achieved through the recruitment of new individuals.

The sex-determination pattern in crocodilians: A systematic review of three decades of research.

Sex in crocodilians is not determined by chromosomes, but by egg incubation temperature, where different temperatures produce different clutch sex ratios. Two patterns have been proposed to describe these changes in sex ratios: a 100% female proportion at low and high temperatures with male predominance at intermediate ones (FMF) or a simpler pattern with a single female-to-male transition (FM). Over the last three decades, researchers have provided empirical information to support either of these two patterns in different species; however, no consensus has been reached partly because data have not been analysed as a whole. Here, we aimed at gathering the existing data on these patterns to provide models of temperature-dependent sex determination in those crocodilians studied so far. Potentially relevant publications were searched on Web of Knowledge, Scopus, Scielo and Science Direct. Studies that reported results on the sexual identity of crocodilian hatchlings obtained from constant temperature incubation treatments were considered. Using statistical models varying in their underlying assumptions, we evaluated which sex-determination pattern was best supported for the studied crocodilians and constructed species-specific and latitude-specific models. Based on the 8,458 sexed hatchlings studied throughout 31 studies, we show that the evidence supports a shared FMF pattern in all the crocodilian species for which enough data are available. We find that such pattern changes between species and at different latitudes. These results suggest a lability of the FMF crocodilian sex-determination pattern, a key feature under the present climate change scenario.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Identifying the demographic processes relevant for species conservation in human-impacted areas: does the model matter?

The identification of the demographic processes responsible for the decline in population growth rate (λ) in disturbed areas would allow conservation efforts to be efficiently directed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are used for this purpose, but it is unclear whether the conclusions drawn from their analysis are sensitive to how functional structures (the functions that describe how survival, growth and fecundity vary with individual size) are selected. We constructed 12 IPMs that differed in their functional structure by combining two reproduction models and three functional expressions (generalized linear, cubic and additive models), each with and without simplification. Models were parameterized with data from two populations of two endangered cacti subject to different disturbance intensities. For each model, we identified the demographic processes that most affected λ in the presence of disturbance. Simulations were performed on artificial data and analyzed as above to assess the generality of the results. In both empirical and simulated data, the same processes were identified as making the largest contribution to changes in λ regardless of the functional structure. The major differences in the results were due to misspecification of the fecundity functions, whilst functional expression and model simplification had lesser effects. Therefore, as long as the demographic attributes of the species are well known and incorporated into the model, IPMs will robustly identify the processes that most affect the growth of populations subject to disturbance, making them a reliable tool for developing conservation strategies.

Predicting tropical dry forest successional attributes from space: is the key hidden in image texture?

Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem-service provision will increasingly depend on the existence of secondary vegetation. Our success in achieving these goals will be determined by our ability to accurately estimate the structure and diversity of such communities at broad geographic scales. We examined whether the texture (the spatial variation of the image elements) of very high-resolution satellite imagery can be used for this purpose. In 14 fallows of different ages and one mature forest stand in a seasonally dry tropical forest landscape, we estimated basal area, canopy cover, stem density, species richness, Shannon index, Simpson index, and canopy height. The first six attributes were also estimated for a subset comprising the tallest plants. We calculated 40 texture variables based on the red and the near infrared bands, and EVI and NDVI, and selected the best-fit linear models describing each vegetation attribute based on them. Basal area (R(2) = 0.93), vegetation height and cover (0.89), species richness (0.87), and stand age (0.85) were the best-described attributes by two-variable models. Cross validation showed that these models had a high predictive power, and most estimated vegetation attributes were highly accurate. The success of this simple method (a single image was used and the models were linear and included very few variables) rests on the principle that image texture reflects the internal heterogeneity of successional vegetation at the proper scale. The vegetation attributes best predicted by texture are relevant in the face of two of the gravest threats to biosphere integrity: climate change and biodiversity loss. By providing reliable basal area and fallow-age estimates, image-texture analysis allows for the assessment of carbon sequestration and diversity loss rates. New and exciting research avenues open by simplifying the analysis of the extent and complexity of successional vegetation through the spatial variation of its spectral information.