Uptake, safety and effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine in inflammatory bowel disease: a UK-wide study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate (1) the UK-wide inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) uptake in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), (2) the association between vaccination against influenza and IBD flare and (3) the effectiveness of IIV in preventing morbidity and mortality. DESIGN: Data for adults with IBD diagnosed before the 1 September 2018 were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold. We calculated the proportion of people vaccinated against seasonal influenza in the 2018-2019 influenza cycle. To investigate vaccine effectiveness, we calculated the propensity score (PS) for vaccination and conducted Cox proportional hazard regression with inverse-probability treatment weighting on PS. We employed self-controlled case series analysis to investigate the association between vaccination and IBD flare. RESULTS: Data for 13 631 people with IBD (50.4% male, mean age 52.9 years) were included. Fifty percent were vaccinated during the influenza cycle, while 32.1% were vaccinated on time, that is, before the seasonal influenza virus circulated in the community. IIV was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (aHR (95% CI): 0.73 (0.55,0.97) but not hospitalisation for pneumonia (aHR (95% CI) 0.52 (0.20-1.37), including in the influenza active period (aHR (95% CI) 0.48 (0.18-1.27)). Administration of the IIV was not associated with IBD flare. CONCLUSION: The uptake of influenza vaccine was low in people with IBD, and the majority were not vaccinated before influenza virus circulated in the community. Vaccination with the IIV was not associated with IBD flare. These findings add to the evidence to promote vaccination against influenza in people with IBD.

Uptake and safety of pneumococcal vaccination in adults with immune mediated inflammatory diseases: a UK wide observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The uptake and safety of pneumococcal vaccination in people with immune mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) is poorly understood. We investigated the UK wide pneumococcal vaccine uptake in adults with IMIDs and explored the association between vaccination and IMID flare. METHODS: Adults with IMIDs diagnosed on or before 01/09/2018, prescribed steroid-sparing drugs within the last 12 months and contributing data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold were included. Vaccine uptake was assessed using a cross-sectional study design. Self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis investigated the association between pneumococcal vaccination and IMID flare. The SCCS observation period was up-to six-month before and after pneumococcal vaccination. This was partitioned into a 14-day pre-vaccination induction, 90-days post-vaccination exposed, and the remaining unexposed periods. RESULTS: We included 32 277 patients, 14 151 with RA, 13 631 with IBD, 3,804 with axial spondyloarthritis and 691 with SLE. Overall, 57% were vaccinated against pneumococcus. Vaccine uptake was lower in those younger than 45 years (32%), with IBD (42%), and without additional indication(s) for vaccination (46%). In the vaccine-safety study, data for 1,067, 935, and 451vaccinated patients with primary-care consultations for joint pain, AIRD flare and IBD flare respectively were included. Vaccination against pneumococcal pneumonia was not associated with primary-care consultations for joint pain, AIRD flare and IBD flare in the exposed period with incidence rate ratios (95% Confidence Interval) 0.95 (0.83-1.09), 1.05 (0.92-1.19), and 0.83 (0.65-1.06) respectively. CONCLUSION: Uptake of pneumococcal vaccination in UK patients with IMIDs was suboptimal. Vaccination against pneumococcal disease was not associated with IMID flare.

Risk-stratified monitoring for sulfasalazine toxicity: prognostic model development and validation.

BACKGROUND: Sulfasalazine-induced cytopenia, nephrotoxicity and hepatotoxicity is uncommon during long-term treatment. Some guidelines recommend 3 monthly monitoring blood tests indefinitely during long-term treatment while others recommend stopping monitoring after 1 year. To rationalise monitoring, we developed and validated a prognostic model for clinically significant blood, liver or kidney toxicity during established sulfasalazine treatment. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK primary care. Data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold and Aurum formed independent development and validation cohorts. PARTICIPANTS: Age ≥18 years, new diagnosis of an inflammatory condition and sulfasalazine prescription. STUDY PERIOD: 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2019. OUTCOME: Sulfasalazine discontinuation with abnormal monitoring blood-test result. ANALYSIS: Patients were followed up from 6 months after first primary care prescription to the earliest of outcome, drug discontinuation, death, 5 years or 31 December 2019. Penalised Cox regression was performed to develop the risk equation. Multiple imputation handled missing predictor data. Model performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: 8936 participants were included in the development cohort (473 events, 23 299 person-years) and 5203 participants were included in the validation cohort (280 events, 12 867 person-years). Nine candidate predictors were included. The optimism adjusted R2 D and Royston D statistic in the development data were 0.13 and 0.79, respectively. The calibration slope (95% CI) and Royston D statistic (95% CI) in validation cohort was 1.19 (0.96 to 1.43) and 0.87 (0.67 to 1.07), respectively. CONCLUSION: This prognostic model for sulfasalazine toxicity uses readily available data and should be used to risk-stratify blood-test monitoring during established sulfasalazine treatment.

Prognostic factors for liver, blood and kidney adverse events from glucocorticoid sparing immune-suppressing drugs in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: a prognostic systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Immune-suppressing drugs can cause liver, kidney or blood toxicity. Prognostic factors for these adverse-events are poorly understood. PURPOSE: To ascertain prognostic factors associated with liver, blood or kidney adverse-events in people receiving immune-suppressing drugs. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE and the Cochrane library (01 January 1995 to 05 January 2023), and supplementary sources. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data were extracted by one reviewer using a modified CHARMS-PF checklist and validated by another. Two independent reviewers assessed risk of bias using Quality in Prognostic factor Studies tool and assessed the quality of evidence using a Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation-informed framework. RESULTS: Fifty-six studies from 58 papers were included. High-quality evidence of the following associations was identified: elevated liver enzymes (6 studies) and folate non-supplementation (3 studies) are prognostic factors for hepatotoxicity in those treated with methotrexate; that mercaptopurine (vs azathioprine) (3 studies) was a prognostic factor for hepatotoxicity in those treated with thiopurines; that mercaptopurine (vs azathioprine) (3 studies) and poor-metaboliser status (4 studies) were prognostic factors for cytopenia in those treated with thiopurines; and that baseline elevated liver enzymes (3 studies) are a prognostic factor for hepatotoxicity in those treated with anti-tumour necrosis factors. Moderate and low quality evidence for several other demographic, lifestyle, comorbidities, baseline bloods/serologic or treatment-related prognostic factors were also identified. LIMITATIONS: Studies published before 1995, those with less than 200 participants and not published in English were excluded. Heterogeneity between studies included different cut-offs for prognostic factors, use of different outcome definitions and different adjustment factors. CONCLUSIONS: Prognostic factors for target-organ damage were identified which may be further investigated for their potential role in targeted (risk-stratified) monitoring. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020208049.

Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies.

BACKGROUND: There is no evidence base to support the use of 6-monthly monitoring blood tests for the early detection of liver, blood and renal toxicity during established anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of anti-TNFα treatment cessation owing to liver, blood and renal side-effects, and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of alternate intervals between monitoring blood tests. METHODS: A secondary care-based retrospective cohort study was performed. Data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR) were used. Patients with at least moderate psoriasis prescribed their first anti-TNFα treatment were included. Treatment discontinuation due to a monitoring blood test abnormality was the primary outcome. Patients were followed-up from start of treatment to the outcome of interest, drug discontinuation, death, 31 July 2021 or up to 5 years, whichever came first. The incidence rate (IR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of anti-TNFα discontinuation with monitoring blood test abnormality was calculated. Multivariate Cox regression was used to examine the association between risk factors and outcome. A mathematical model evaluated costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with increasing the length of time between monitoring blood tests during anti-TNFα treatment. RESULTS: The cohort included 8819 participants [3710 (42.1%) female, mean (SD) age 44.76 (13.20) years] that contributed 25 058 person-years (PY) of follow-up and experienced 125 treatment discontinuations owing to a monitoring blood test abnormality at an IR of 5.85 (95% CI 4.91-6.97)/1000 PY. Of these, 64 and 61 discontinuations occurred within the first year and after the first year of treatment start, at IRs of 8.62 (95% CI 6.74-11.01) and 3.44 (95% CI 2.67-4.42)/1000 PY, respectively. Increasing age (in years), diabetes and liver disease were associated with anti-TNFα discontinuation after a monitoring blood test abnormality [adjusted hazard ratios of 1.02 (95% CI 1.01-1.04), 1.68 (95% CI 1.00-2.81) and 2.27 (95% CI 1.26-4.07), respectively]. Assuming a threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained, no monitoring was most cost-effective, but all extended periods were cost-effective vs. 3- or 6-monthly monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-TNFα drugs were uncommonly discontinued owing to abnormal monitoring blood tests after the first year of treatment. Extending the duration between monitoring blood tests was cost-effective. Our results produce evidence for specialist society guidance to reduce patient monitoring burden and healthcare costs.

Risk-stratified monitoring for thiopurine toxicity in immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: prognostic model development, validation, and, health economic evaluation.

Background: Patients established on thiopurines (e.g., azathioprine) are recommended to undergo three-monthly blood tests for the early detection of blood, liver, or kidney toxicity. These side-effects are uncommon during long-term treatment. We developed a prognostic model that could be used to inform risk-stratified decisions on frequency of monitoring blood-tests during long-term thiopurine treatment, and, performed health-economic evaluation of alternate monitoring intervals. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study set in the UK primary-care. Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and Gold formed development and validation cohorts, respectively. People age ≥18 years, diagnosed with an immune mediated inflammatory disease, prescribed thiopurine by their general practitioner for at-least six-months between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2019 were eligible. The outcome was thiopurine discontinuation with abnormal blood-test results. Patients were followed up from six-months after first primary-care thiopurine prescription to up to five-years. Penalised Cox regression developed the risk equation. Multiple imputation handled missing predictor data. Calibration and discrimination assessed model performance. A mathematical model evaluated costs and quality-adjusted life years associated with lengthening the interval between blood-tests. Findings: Data from 5982 (405 events over 16,117 person-years) and 3573 (269 events over 9075 person-years) participants were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Fourteen candidate predictors (21 parameters) were included. The optimism adjusted R2 and Royston D statistic in development data were 0.11 and 0.76, respectively. The calibration slope and Royston D statistic (95% Confidence Interval) in the validation data were 1.10 (0.84-1.36) and 0.72 (0.52-0.92), respectively. A 2-year period between monitoring blood-test was most cost-effective in all deciles of predicted risk but the gain between monitoring annually or biennially reduced in higher risk deciles. Interpretation: This prognostic model requires information that is readily available during routine clinical care and may be used to risk-stratify blood-test monitoring for thiopurine toxicity. These findings should be considered by specialist societies when recommending blood monitoring during thiopurine prescription to bring about sustainable and equitable change in clinical practice. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Risk stratified monitoring for methotrexate toxicity in immune mediated inflammatory diseases: prognostic model development and validation using primary care data from the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a prognostic model to inform risk stratified decisions on frequency of monitoring blood tests during long term methotrexate treatment. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Electronic health records within the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Gold and CPRD Aurum. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (≥18 years) with a diagnosis of an immune mediated inflammatory disease who were prescribed methotrexate by their general practitioner for six months or more during 2007-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Discontinuation of methotrexate owing to abnormal monitoring blood test result. Patients were followed-up from six months after their first prescription for methotrexate in primary care to the earliest of outcome, drug discontinuation for any other reason, leaving the practice, last data collection from the practice, death, five years, or 31 December 2019. Cox regression was performed to develop the risk equation, with bootstrapping used to shrink predictor effects for optimism. Multiple imputation handled missing predictor data. Model performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: Data from 13 110 (854 events) and 23 999 (1486 events) participants were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. 11 candidate predictors (17 parameters) were included. In the development dataset, the optimism adjusted R2 was 0.13 and the optimism adjusted Royston D statistic was 0.79. The calibration slope and Royston D statistic in the validation dataset for the entire follow-up period was 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.02) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.83), respectively. The prognostic model performed well in predicting outcomes in clinically relevant subgroups defined by age group, type of immune mediated inflammatory disease, and methotrexate dose. CONCLUSION: A prognostic model was developed and validated that uses information collected during routine clinical care and may be used to risk stratify the frequency of monitoring blood test during long term methotrexate treatment.

COVID-19 infection, admission and death and the impact of corticosteroids among people with rare autoimmune rheumatic disease during the second wave of COVID-19 in England: results from the RECORDER Project.

OBJECTIVES: To calculate the rates of COVID-19 infection and COVID-19-related death among people with rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases (RAIRD) during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England, and describe the impact of corticosteroids on outcomes. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify people alive on 1 August 2020 with ICD-10 codes for RAIRD from the whole population of England. Linked national health records were used to calculate rates and rate ratios of COVID-19 infection and death up to 30 April 2021. Primary definition of COVID-19-related death was mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate. NHS Digital and Office for National Statistics general population data were used for comparison. The association between 30-day corticosteroid usage and COVID-19-related death, COVID-19-related hospital admissions and all-cause deaths was also described. RESULTS: Of 168 330 people with RAIRD, 9961 (5.92%) had a positive COVID-19 PCR test. The age-standardized infection rate ratio between RAIRD and the general population was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.00). 1342 (0.80%) people with RAIRD died with COVID-19 on their death certificate and the age-sex-standardized mortality rate for COVID-19-related death was 2.76 (95% CI: 2.63, 2.89) times higher than in the general population. There was a dose-dependent relationship between 30-day corticosteroid usage and COVID-19-related death. There was no increase in deaths due to other causes. CONCLUSIONS: During the second wave of COVID-19 in England, people with RAIRD had the same risk of COVID-19 infection but a 2.76-fold increased risk of COVID-19-related death compared with the general population, with corticosteroids associated with increased risk.

Is Vaccination Against COVID-19 Associated With Inflammatory Bowel Disease Flare? Self-Controlled Case Series Analysis Using the UK CPRD.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate the association between vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) flare. METHODS: Patients with IBD vaccinated against COVID-19 who consulted for disease flare between December 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021, were ascertained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. IBD flares were identified using consultation and corticosteroid prescription records. Vaccinations were identified using product codes and vaccination dates. The study period was partitioned into vaccine-exposed (vaccination date and 21 days immediately after), prevaccination (7 days immediately before vaccination), and the remaining vaccine-unexposed periods. Participants contributed data with multiple vaccinations and IBD flares. Season-adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using self-controlled case series analysis. RESULTS: Data for 1911 cases with IBD were included; 52% of them were female, and their mean age was 49 years. Approximately 63% of participants had ulcerative colitis (UC). COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with increased IBD flares in the vaccine-exposed period when all vaccinations were considered (aIRR [95% CI] 0.89 [0.77-1.02], 0.79 [0.66-0.95], and 1.00 [0.79-1.27] in IBD overall, UC, and Crohn's disease, respectively). Analyses stratified to include only first, second, or third COVID-19 vaccinations found no significant association between vaccination and IBD flares in the vaccine-exposed period (aIRR [95% CI] 0.87 [0.71-1.06], 0.93 [0.75-1.15], and 0.86 [0.63-1.17], respectively). Similarly, stratification by COVID-19 before vaccination and by vaccination with vectored DNA or messenger RNA vaccine did not reveal an increased risk of flare in any of these subgroups. DISCUSSION: Vaccination against COVID-19 was not associated with IBD flares regardless of prior COVID-19 infection and whether messenger RNA or DNA vaccines were used.

The incidence of Kawasaki disease using hospital admissions data for England 2006-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence of Kawasaki Disease (kDa) between 2006 and 2021 in England. METHODS: We identified all cases in hospital episode statistics with an ICD-10 diagnostic code M303 (for kDa) between 1 April 2006 and 31 March 2021. We validated 83 diagnoses using hospital medical records and found >97% accuracy. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using Poisson regression and assessed the influence of age, sex, ethnicity and index of multiple deprivation (IMD). We used Office for National Statistics population estimates for England as the denominator. RESULTS: We identified a total of 5908 cases of kDa in all children under the age of 16 (mean age 3.8, s.d.=3.2, 95% CI: 3.7, 3.9). Incidence in children aged <5 years was 8.9 (95% CI: 8.6, 9.2)/100 000 person-years; in children aged 5-9, 2.4 (95% CI: 2.3, 2.6)/100 000 person-years; and in children aged 10-15, 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7). Male : female ratio was 1.5 : 1. Incidence was higher among non-White than White ethnicities [adjusted IRR 2.1 (2.0-2.2) for Asian, 3.0 (2.8-3.3) for Black and 4.5 (4.2-4.8) for other ethnicities]. The incidence increased with socioeconomic deprivation; the adjusted IRR of the least deprived IMD quintile compared with the most deprived quintile was 0.81 (0.77-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence rates of kDa derived from hospital admission data in England were higher than in studies relying on clinician reporting. We confirm previous findings on the influence of sex and ethnicity on kDa incidence and observe that there was a higher incidence of kDa within more deprived socioeconomic groups.

Is vaccination against COVID-19 associated with autoimmune rheumatic disease flare? A self-controlled case series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and autoimmune rheumatic disease (AIRD) flare. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients with AIRDs vaccinated against COVID-19 who consulted for disease flare between 1 December 2020 and 31 December 2021 were ascertained in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (Aurum). AIRD flare was defined as consultation for AIRD with CS prescription on the same day or the next day. Vaccination was defined using date of vaccination and product code. The observation period was partitioned into vaccine-exposed (21 days after vaccination), pre-vaccination (7 days before vaccination) and remaining vaccine-unexposed periods. Participants contributed data with multiple vaccinations and outcomes. Season adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% CI were calculated using self-controlled case series analysis. RESULTS: Data for 3554 AIRD cases, 72% female, mean age 65 years and 68.3% with RA, were included. COVID-19 vaccination was associated with significantly fewer AIRD flares in the 21-day vaccine-exposed period when all vaccinations were considered [aIRR (95% CI) 0.89 (0.80, 0.98)]. Using dose-stratified analyses there was a statistically significant negative association in the 21 days after first COVID-19 vaccination but no association after the second or third COVID-19 vaccinations [aIRR (95% CI) 0.76 (0.66, 0.89), 0.94 (0.79, 1.11) and 1.01 (0.85, 1.20), respectively]. On AIRD-type stratified analyses, vaccination was not associated with disease flares. Vaccination without or after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, and with vectored DNA or mRNA vaccines, associated with comparable reduced risk of AIRD flares in the vaccine-exposed period after first COVID-19 vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination against COVID-19 was not associated with increased AIRD flares regardless of prior COVID-19, AIRD type, and whether mRNA or DNA vaccination technology were used.

Long-term adverse effects and healthcare burden of rectal cancer radiotherapy: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: As rectal cancer survival increases, more patients survive with potentially severe, long-term gastrointestinal and genitourinary complications from radiotherapy. The burden of these complications for patients and healthcare services is unclear, which this review aims to quantify. METHODS: Systematic search of Medline and Embase for randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) and multicentre observational studies published since 2000, reporting hospitalization/procedural intervention for long-term (>6 months post-treatment) gastrointestinal or genitourinary complications after radiotherapy and surgery for rectal cancer. Prevalence values were pooled in a meta-analysis assuming random effects. Organ-preservation patients were excluded. RESULTS: 4044 records screened; 24 reports from 23 studies included (15 RCTs, 8 Observational), encompassing 15 438 patients. Twenty-one studies (median follow-up 60 months) reported gastrointestinal complications post-radiotherapy: pooled prevalence 11% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 8-14%). Thirteen reported small bowel obstruction: prevalence 9% (95% CI 6-12%), a 58% increased risk compared with surgery alone (RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.26-1.98, n = 5 studies). Seven reported fistulas: prevalence 1% (95% CI 1-2%). Thirteen reported genitourinary complications: prevalence 4% (95% CI 1-6%); RR 1.10 (95% CI 0.88-1.38, n = 3 studies) compared with surgery alone. CONCLUSIONS: Over 10% of patients are hospitalized for long-term complications following rectal cancer radiotherapy. Serious gastrointestinal complications are commonplace; late small bowel obstruction is more common in patients having radiotherapy and surgery compared with surgery alone. Patients and clinicians need to be aware of these risks.

Antibody response to four doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases: an observational study.

Objective: Antibody responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are reduced among immunocompromised patients but are not well quantified among people with rare disease. We conducted an observational study to evaluate the antibody responses to the booster SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in people with rare autoimmune rheumatic diseases (RAIRD). Methods: Blood samples were collected after second, before third, after third and after fourth vaccine doses. Anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid antibody levels were measured using an in-house ELISA. Logistic regression models were built to determine the predictors for non-response. Results were compared with age- and sex-matched healthy controls. Results: Forty-three people with RAIRD were included, with a median age of 56 years. Anti-spike seropositivity increased from 42.9% after second dose to 51.2% after third dose and 65.6% after fourth dose. Median anti-spike antibody levels increased from 33.6 (interquartile range 7.8-724.5) binding antibody units after second dose to 239.4 (interquartile range 35.8-1051.1) binding antibody units after the booster dose (third dose, or fourth dose if eligible). Of the participants who had sufficient antibody levels post-second dose, 22.2% had insufficient levels after the booster, and 34.9% of participants had lower antibodies after the booster than the lowest healthy control had after the second dose. Rituximab in the 6 months prior to booster (P = 0.02) and non-White ethnicity (P = 0.04) were associated with non-response. There was a dose-response relationship between the timing of rituximab and generation of sufficient antibodies (P = 0.03). Conclusion: Although the booster dose increased anti-spike IgG and seropositivity rates, some people with RAIRD, particularly those on rituximab, had insufficient antibody levels despite three or four doses.

Validation of methods to identify people with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies using hospital episode statistics.

Objective: Hospital episode statistics (HES) are routinely recorded at every hospital admission within the National Health Service (NHS) in England. This study validates diagnostic ICD-10 codes within HES as a method of identifying cases of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs). Methods: All inpatient admissions at one NHS Trust between 2010 and 2020 with relevant diagnostic ICD-10 codes were extracted from HES. Hospital databases were used to identify all outpatients with IIM, and electronic care records were reviewed to confirm coding accuracy. Total hospital admissions were calculated from NHS Digital reports. The sensitivity and specificity of each code and code combinations were calculated to develop an optimal algorithm. The optimal algorithm was tested in a sample of admissions at another NHS Trust. Results: Of the 672 individuals identified by HES, 510 were confirmed to have IIM. Overall, the positive predictive value (PPV) was 76% and sensitivity 89%. Combination algorithms achieved PPVs between 89 and 94%. HES can also predict the presence of IIM-associated interstitial lung disease (ILD) with a PPV of 79% and sensitivity of 71%. The optimal algorithm excluded children (except JDM code M33.0), combined M33.0, M33.1, M33.9, M36.0, G72.4, M60.8 and M33.2, and included M60.9 only if it occurred alongside an ILD code (J84.1, J84.9 or J99.1). This produced a PPV of 88.9% and sensitivity of 84.2%. Retesting this algorithm at another NHS Trust confirmed a high PPV (94.4%). Conclusion: IIM ICD-10 code combinations in HES have high PPVs and sensitivities. Algorithms tested in this study could be applied across all NHS Trusts to enable robust and cost-effective whole-population research into the epidemiology of IIM.

Predicting Need for Escalation of Care or Death From Repeated Daily Clinical Observations and Laboratory Results in Patients With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

We compared the performance of prognostic tools for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using parameters fitted either at the time of hospital admission or across all time points of an admission. This cohort study used clinical data to model the dynamic change in prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 at a single hospital center in the United Kingdom, including all patients admitted from February 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, and then followed up for 60 days for intensive care unit (ICU) admission, death, or discharge from the hospital. We incorporated clinical observations and blood tests into 2 time-varying Cox proportional hazards models predicting daily 24- to 48-hour risk of admission to the ICU for those eligible for escalation of care or death for those ineligible for escalation. In developing the model, 491 patients were eligible for ICU escalation and 769 were ineligible for escalation. Our model had good discrimination of daily risk of ICU admission in the validation cohort (n = 1,141; C statistic: C = 0.91, 95% confidence interval: 0.89, 0.94) and our score performed better than other scores (National Early Warning Score 2, International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Comprehensive Clinical Characterisation Collaboration score) calculated using only parameters measured on admission, but it overestimated the risk of escalation (calibration slope = 0.7). A bespoke daily SARS-CoV-2 escalation risk prediction score can predict the need for clinical escalation better than a generic early warning score or a single estimation of risk calculated at admission.

Incidence and pattern of mycophenolate discontinuation associated with abnormal monitoring blood-test results: cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum.

Objective: The aim was to examine the incidence and pattern of MMF discontinuation associated with abnormal monitoring blood-test results. Methods: Data from people prescribed MMF for common inflammatory conditions in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were used. Participants were followed from the first MMF prescription. The primary outcome was drug discontinuation with an associated abnormal blood-test result within 60 days. Secondary outcomes were drug discontinuation for any reason and discontinuation associated with severely abnormal blood-test results within 60 days. Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine factors associated with the primary outcome. Results: The cohort included 992 participants (68.9% female, mean age 51.95 years, 47.1% with SLE) contributing 1885 person-years of follow-up. The incidence of MMF discontinuation associated with any (severely) abnormal blood-test results was 153.46 (21.07) per 1000 person-years in the first year of prescription and 32.39 (7.91) per 1000 person-years in later years. Of those patients prescribed MMF, 11.5% (1.7%) discontinued treatment with any (severely) abnormal blood-test results in the first year of prescription. After this period, a mean of 2.6% (0.7%) of patients discontinued treatment with any (severely) abnormal blood-test results per year. Increased serum creatinine and cytopenia were more commonly associated with MMF discontinuation than elevated liver enzymes. Chronic kidney disease stage 3 or higher was significantly associated with MMF discontinuation with any blood-test abnormalities [adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) 2.22 (1.47, 3.37)]. Conclusion: MMF is uncommonly discontinued for blood-test abnormalities and even less often discontinued for severe blood-test abnormalities after the first year of prescription. Consideration can be given to less frequent monitoring after 1 year of treatment, especially in those without chronic kidney disease stage 3 or higher.