Methodological issues of retrospective surveys for measuring mortality of highly clustered diseases: case study of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak. METHODS: We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design. RESULTS: Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23-0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05-0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

Main findings: For humanitarian organizations it is imperative to document the methodological limitations of cluster surveys and discuss the utility.Added knowledge: This paper adds new knowledge on cluster surveys for highly clustered data such us in Ebola virus disease.Global health impact of policy and action: We provided empirical estimates and discuss design improvements to inform future study.

Correction: The impact of computed radiography and teleradiology on patients' diagnosis and treatment in Mweso, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227773.].

Correction: Neonatal blood lead concentration predicts medium term lead-related outcomes in children ≤5 years old with congenital lead poisoning: A retrospective cohort study in Northern Nigeria.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001644.].

The prevalence and risk factors for tuberculosis among healthcare workers in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at risk of contracting TB, particularly when in high tuberculosis (TB) burden settings. Routine surveillance data and evidence are limited on the burden of TB amongst HCWs in Indonesia. We aimed to measure the prevalence of TB infection (TBI) and disease among HCWs in four healthcare facilities in Yogyakarta province in Indonesia, and explore risk factors for TBI. A cross-sectional TB screening study targeted all HCWs from four pre-selected facilities (1 hospital, 3 primary care) in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Voluntary screening included symptom assessment, Chest X-ray (CXR), Xpert MTB/RIF (if indicated) and tuberculin skin test (TST). Analyses were descriptive and included multivariable logistic regression. Of 792 HCWs, 681 consented (86%) to the screening; 59% (n = 401) were female, 62% were medical staff (n = 421), 77% worked in the one participating hospital (n = 524), and the median time working in the health sector was 13 years (IQR: 6-25 years). Nearly half had provided services for people with TB (46%, n = 316) and 9% reported ever having TB (n = 60). Among participants with presumptive TB (15%, n = 99/662), none were diagnosed microbiologically or clinically with active TB disease. TBI was detected in 25% (95% CI: 22-30; n = 112/441) of eligible HCWs with a TST result. A significant association was found between TB infection and being male (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.02 (95%CI: 1.29-3.17)), currently working in the participating hospital compared to primary care (aOR 3.15 (95%CI: 1.75-5.66)), and older age (1.05 OR increase per year of life between 19-73 years (95%CI: 1.02-1.06)). This study supports prioritisation of HCWs as a high-risk group for TB infection and disease, and the need for comprehensive prevention and control programs in Indonesia. Further, it identifies characteristics of HCWs in Yogyakarta at higher risk of TBI, who could be prioritised in screening programs if universal coverage of prevention and control measures cannot be achieved.

Neonatal blood lead concentration predicts medium term lead-related outcomes in children ≤5 years old with congenital lead poisoning: A retrospective cohort study in Northern Nigeria.

Mother-to-child-transmission of lead via the placenta is known to result in congenital lead toxicity. Between 2010 and 2021, Médecins Sans Frontières and other stakeholders responded to a severe lead poisoning outbreak related to artisanal gold mining in Northern Nigeria. Extensive environmental remediation occurred following outbreak identification; source control efforts are ongoing within the community. We aimed to describe the prevalence of congenital lead poisoning in this cohort and analyse the association between neonatal blood lead concentration (BLC) and medium-term lead-related outcomes during the study period. Children enrolled in the lead poisoning programme between July 2010 and 25 January 2018 who had a screening BLC at ≤4 weeks of age were included. For time-to-event analysis, medium-term outcomes were classified as lead-related (death from lead encephalopathy, and/or met chelation threshold) and non-lead-related (non-lead-related death, on programme no chelation, exit from programme without chelation). Cox regression analysis and ROC analysis were performed. 1468 children were included. All-cause mortality 2.3%; geometric mean neonatal BLC 13.7 µg/dL; 'lead-related death or treatment' 19.3%. For every doubling in neonatal BLC, there was an almost 8-fold increase in adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the composite lead-related outcome (p<0.001). A neonatal BLC ≥ 15.0 µg/dL had 95% sensitivity for identifying children who went on to have the composite outcome (with specificity 67%; positive likelihood ratio 2.86). Congenital lead poisoning predicts ongoing exposure in this population, even after environmental remediation. This suggests a complex, early, multidisciplinary approach to source control and exposure management is required when elevated neonatal BLC is observed in lead poisoning clusters in low-and-middle-income contexts.

Investigating outbreaks of initially unknown aetiology in complex settings: findings and recommendations from 10 case studies.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of unknown aetiology in complex settings pose challenges and there is little information about investigation methods. We reviewed investigations into such outbreaks to identify methods favouring or impeding identification of the cause. METHODS: We used two approaches: reviewing scientific literature and soliciting key informants. Case studies were developed through interviews with people involved and triangulated with documents available from the time of the investigation. RESULTS: Ten outbreaks in African or Asian countries within the period 2007-2017 were selected. The cause was identified in seven, of which two had an unclear mode of transmission, and in three, neither origin nor transmission mode was identified. Four events were caused by infectious agents and three by chemical poisoning. Despite differences in the outbreaks, similar obstacles were noted: incomplete or delayed description of patients, comorbidities confounding clinical pictures and case definitions wrongly attributed. Repeated rounds of data collection and laboratory investigations were common and there was limited capacity to ship samples. DISCUSSION: It was not possible to define activities that led to prompt identification of the cause in the case studies selected. Based on the observations, we conclude that basing case definitions on precise medical observations, implementing initial comprehensive data collection, including environmental, social and behavioural information; and involving local informants could save precious time and hasten implementation of control measures.

Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Using the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra Assay on the Stool of Pediatric Patients in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

We report the findings of a prospective laboratory diagnostic accuracy study to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay for Mycobacterium tuberculosis detection in fresh stool specimens from children under 15 years of age with confirmed tuberculosis (TB) disease from Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Six hundred eighty-eight (688) participants were enrolled from April 2019 to October 2021. We identified 16 participants (2.3%) with confirmed TB disease, defined as ≥1 TB sign/symptom plus microbiologic confirmation. With the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay for stool, we found a sensitivity of 68.8% (95% CI, 46.0 to 91.5) and a specificity of 98.7% (95% CI, 97.8 to 99.5) in confirmed TB disease. Our results are comparable to other published studies; however, our cohort was larger and our confirmed TB disease rate lower than most. We also demonstrated that this assay was feasible to implement in a centralized hospital laboratory in a low-middle-income Central Asian country. However, we encountered obstacles such as lack of staffing, material ruptures, outdated government protocols, and decreased case presentation due to COVID-19. We found eight patients whose only positive test was an Xpert Ultra stool assay. None needed treatment during the study; however, three were treated later, suggesting such cases require close observation. Our report is the first from Central Asia and one of a few from a low-middle-income country. We believe our study demonstrates the generalizability of the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay on fresh stool specimens from children and provides further evidence supporting WHO's approval of this diagnostic strategy. IMPORTANCE The importance of this report is that it provides further support for WHO's recent recommendation that fresh stool is an acceptable sample for GeneXpert TB testing in children, especially small children who often cannot produce an adequate sputum sample. Diagnosing TB in this age group is difficult, and many cases are missed, leading to unacceptable rates of TB illness and death. In our large cohort of children from Dushanbe, Tajikistan, the GeneXpert stool test was positive in 69% of proven cases of TB, and there were very few false-positive tests. We also showed that this diagnostic strategy was feasible to implement in a low-middle-income country with an inefficient health care delivery system. We hope that many more programs will adopt this form of diagnosing TB in children.

Outcomes with a shorter multidrug-resistant tuberculosis regimen from Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, World Health Organization guidelines conditionally recommended standardised shorter 9-12-month regimens for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) treatment. We conducted a prospective study of a shorter standardised MDR-TB regimen in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. METHODS: Consecutive adults and children with confirmed rifampicin-resistant pulmonary TB were enrolled between September 1, 2013 and March 31, 2015; exclusions included prior treatment with second-line anti-TB drugs, and documented resistance to ofloxacin or to two second-line injectable agents. The primary outcome was recurrence-free cure at 1 year following treatment completion. RESULTS: Of 146 enrolled patients, 128 were included: 67 female (52.3%), median age 30.1 (interquartile range 23.8-44.4) years. At the end of treatment, 71.9% (92 out of 128) of patients achieved treatment success, with 68% (87 out of 128) achieving recurrence-free cure at 1 year following completion. Unsuccessful outcomes during treatment included 22 (17.2%) treatment failures with fluoroquinolone-resistance amplification in 8 patients (8 out of 22, 36.4%); 12 (9.4%) lost to follow-up; and 2 (1.5%) deaths. Recurrence occurred in one patient. Fourteen patients (10.9%) experienced serious adverse events. Baseline resistance to both pyrazinamide and ethambutol (adjusted OR 6.13, 95% CI 2.01; 18.63) and adherence <95% (adjusted OR 5.33, 95% CI 1.73; 16.36) were associated with unsuccessful outcome in multivariable logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: Overall success with a standardised shorter MDR-TB regimen was moderate with considerable treatment failure and amplification of fluoroquinolone resistance. When introducing standardised shorter regimens, baseline drug susceptibility testing and minimising missed doses are critical. High rates globally of pyrazinamide, ethambutol and ethionamide resistance raise questions of continued inclusion of these drugs in shorter regimens in the absence of drug susceptibility testing-confirmed susceptibility.

Clinical and epidemiological performance of WHO Ebola case definitions: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease case definition is a crucial surveillance tool to detect suspected cases for referral and as a screening tool for clinicians to support admission and laboratory testing decisions at Ebola health facilities. We aimed to assess the performance of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions and other screening scores. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science for studies published in English between June 13, 1978, and Jan 14, 2020. We included studies that estimated the sensitivity and specificity of WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions, clinical and epidemiological characteristics (symptoms at admission and contact history), and predictive risk scores against the reference standard (laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease). Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated using bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (when four or more studies provided data) or random-effects meta-analysis (fewer than four studies provided data). FINDINGS: We identified 2493 publications, of which 14 studies from four countries (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Angola) were included in the analysis. 12 021 people with suspected disease were included, of whom 4874 were confirmed as positive for Ebola virus infection. Six studies explored the performance of WHO case definitions in non-paediatric populations, and in all of these studies, suspected and probable cases were combined and could not be disaggregated for analysis. The pooled sensitivity of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions from these studies was 81·5% (95% CI 74·1-87·2) and pooled specificity was 35·7% (28·5-43·6). History of contact or epidemiological link was a key predictor for the WHO case definitions (seven studies) and for risk scores (six studies). The most sensitive symptom was intense fatigue (79·0% [95% CI 74·4-83·0]), assessed in seven studies, and the least sensitive symptom was pain behind the eyes (1·0% [0·0-7·0]), assessed in three studies. The performance of fever as a symptom varied depending on the cutoff used to define fever. INTERPRETATION: WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions perform suboptimally to identify cases at both community level and during triage at Ebola health facilities. Inclusion of intense fatigue as a key symptom and contact history could improve the performance of case definitions, but implementation of these changes will require effective collaboration with, and trust of, affected communities. FUNDING: Médecins sans Frontières.

The impact of computed radiography and teleradiology on patients' diagnosis and treatment in Mweso, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

INTRODUCTION: High quality diagnostic imaging can provide increased diagnostic accuracy and help guide medical decision-making and management, however challenges for radiology in resource-limited settings are numerous. Diagnostic imaging and teleradiology have financial and logistical implications, so evidence of impact is crucial. We sought to test the hypothesis that the implementation of computed radiography with teleradiology consultation support will significantly change diagnoses and treatment plans in a resource limited setting. METHOD: Paired before-after study to determine the therapeutic impact of an add-on diagnostic test. 'Preliminary Plan' and 'Final Plan' forms allowed direct comparison of diagnosis and treatment plans at initial consultation and following radiography and teleradiology. Consecutive consenting patients were included until the sample size (600) was reached. Changes in both diagnosis and treatment plan were analysed in the whole cohort, with sub-analyses of children aged <5 years, and cases of chest radiography. RESULTS: Final analysis included 536 cases. Diagnosis changed following radiography and teleradiology in 62% of cases, and treatment plans changed in 61%. In chest radiography cases, 70% of diagnoses and 62% of treatment plans changed, while in children <5 years 66% of diagnoses and 58% of treatment plans changed. Reduced final treatment plans were most common for exploratory surgery (72% decrease), surgical orthopaedic intervention (62% decrease), and TB treatment (52% decrease), allowing more conservative medical or surgical management in 61 cases. Increased final treatment plans were highest in the orthopaedic and interventional surgery and referral categories. Of 42 cases requiring interventional surgery in the final plan, 26 (62%) were identified only after radiography and teleradiology. 16 additional cases were indicated for orthopaedic surgery, 10 cases required patient transfer, and TB treatment was indicated in 45 cases. A change in the original prescription plan occurred in 41% of 536 cases, with one or more prescriptions stopped in 28% of all cases. CONCLUSION: We found that computed radiography with teleradiology had significant clinical value in this resource-limited setting, with the potential to affect both patient outcomes and treatment costs through providing improved diagnostics and avoiding unnecessary treatments and medications.

Declining blood lead levels among small-scale miners participating in a safer mining pilot programme in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor blood lead levels (BLLs) of miners and ore processors participating in a pilot programme to reduce lead poisoning and take-home exposures from artisanal small-scale gold mining. A medical surveillance programme was established to assess exposures as new methods aimed at reducing lead exposures from ore were introduced in a community in Nigeria where children experienced substantial lead-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Extensive outreach and education were offered to miners, and investments were made to adopt wet methods to reduce exposures during mining and processing. We conducted medical surveillance, including a physical exam and repeated blood lead testing, for 61 miners selected from among several hundred who participated in the safer mining pilot programme and consented to testing. Venous blood lead concentrations were analysed using the LeadCare II device at approximately 3-month intervals over a period of 19 months. RESULTS: Overall geometric mean (GM) BLLs decreased by 32% from 31.6 to 21.5 µg/dL during the 19-month project. Women had a somewhat lower reduction in GM BLLs (23%) compared with men (36%). There was a statistically significant reduction in log BLLs from baseline to the final test taken by each participant (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The observed reductions in GM BLLs during the pilot intervention among this representative group of miners and ore processors demonstrated the effectiveness of the safer mining programme in this community. Such measures are feasible, cost-effective and can greatly improve health outcomes in mining communities.

The factors affecting household transmission dynamics and community compliance with Ebola control measures: a mixed-methods study in a rural village in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Little is understood of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission dynamics and community compliance with control measures over time. Understanding these interactions is essential if interventions are to be effective in future outbreaks. We conducted a mixed-methods study to explore these factors in a rural village that experienced sustained EVD transmission in Kailahun District, Sierra Leone. METHODS: We reconstructed transmission dynamics using a cross-sectional survey conducted in April 2015, and cross-referenced our results with surveillance, burial, and Ebola Management Centre (EMC) data. Factors associated with EVD transmission were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Following the survey, qualitative semi-structured interviews explored views of community informants and households. RESULTS: All households (n = 240; 1161 individuals) participated in the survey. 29 of 31 EVD probable/confirmed cases died (93·5% case fatality rate); six deaths (20·6%) had been missed by other surveillance systems. Transmission over five generations lasted 16 weeks. Although most households had ≤5 members there was a significant increase in risk of Ebola in households with > 5 members. Risk of EVD was also associated with older age. Cases were spatially clustered; all occurred in 15 households. EVD transmission was better understood when the community experience started to concord with public health messages being given. Perceptions of contact tracing changed from invading privacy and selling people to ensuring community safety. Burials in plastic bags, without female attendants or prayer, were perceived as dishonourable. Further reasons for low compliance were low EMC survival rates, family perceptions of a moral duty to provide care to relatives, poor communication with the EMC, and loss of livelihoods due to quarantine. Compliance with response measures increased only after the second generation, coinciding with the implementation of restrictive by-laws, return of the first survivor, reduced contact with dead bodies, and admission of patients to the EMC. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission occurred primarily in a few large households, with prolonged transmission and a high death toll. Return of a survivor to the village and more effective implementation of control strategies coincided with increased compliance to control measures, with few subsequent cases. We propose key recommendations for management of EVD outbreaks based on this experience.

Improving mapping for Ebola response through mobilising a local community with self-owned smartphones: Tonkolili District, Sierra Leone, January 2015.

BACKGROUND: During the 2014-16 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the Magburaka Ebola Management Centre (EMC) operated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in Tonkolili District, Sierra Leone, identified that available district maps lacked up-to-date village information to facilitate timely implementation of EVD control strategies. In January 2015, we undertook a survey in chiefdoms within the MSF EMC catchment area to collect mapping and village data. We explore the feasibility and cost to mobilise a local community for this survey, describe validation against existing mapping sources and use of the data to prioritise areas for interventions, and lessons learned. METHODS: We recruited local people with self-owned Android smartphones installed with open-source survey software (OpenDataKit (ODK)) and open-source navigation software (OpenStreetMap Automated Navigation Directions (OsmAnd)). Surveyors were paired with local motorbike drivers to travel to eligible villages. The collected mapping data were validated by checking for duplication and comparing the village names against a pre-existing village name and location list using a geographic distance and text string-matching algorithm. RESULTS: The survey teams gained sufficient familiarity with the ODK and OsmAnd software within 1-2 hours. Nine chiefdoms in Tonkolili District and three in Bombali District were surveyed within two weeks. Following de-duplication, the surveyors collected data from 891 villages with an estimated 127,021 households. The overall survey cost was €3,395; €3.80 per village surveyed. The MSF GIS team (MSF-OCG) created improved maps for the MSF Magburaka EMC team which were used to support surveillance, investigation of suspect EVD cases, hygiene-kit distribution and EVD survivor support. We shared the mapping data with OpenStreetMap, the local Ministry of Health and Sanitation and Sierra Leone District and National Ebola Response Centres. CONCLUSIONS: Involving local community and using accessible technology allowed rapid implementation, at moderate cost, of a survey to collect geographic and essential village information, and creation of updated maps. These methods could be used for future emergencies to facilitate response.

Implications of differentiated care for successful ART scale-up in a concentrated HIV epidemic in Yangon, Myanmar.

INTRODUCTION: National AIDS Programme in Myanmar has made significant progress in scaling up antiretroviral treatment (ART) services and recognizes the importance of differentiated care for people living with HIV. Indeed, long centred around the hospital and reliant on physicians, the country's HIV response is undergoing a process of successful decentralization with HIV care increasingly being integrated into other health services as part of a systematic effort to expand access to HIV treatment. This study describes implementation of differentiated care in Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)-supported programmes and reports its outcomes. METHODS: A descriptive cohort analysis of adult patients on antiretroviral treatment was performed. We assessed stability of patients as of 31 December 2014 and introduced an intervention of reduced frequency of physicians' consultations for stable patients, and fast tract ART refills. We measured a number of saved physician's visits as the result of this intervention. Main outcomes, remained under care, death, lost to follow up, treatment failure, were assessed on 31 December 2015 and reported as rates for different stable groups. RESULTS: On 31 December 2014, our programme counted 16, 272 adult patients enrolled in HIV care, of whom 80.34% were stable. The model allowed for an increase in the average number of patients one medical team could care for - from 745 patients in 2011 to 1, 627 in 2014 - and, thus, a reduction in the number of teams needed. An assessment of stable patients enrolled on ART one year after the implementation of the new model revealed excellent outcomes, aggregated for stable patients as 98.7% remaining in care, 0.4% dead, 0.8% lost to follow-up, 0.8% clinical treatment failure and 5.8% with immunological treatment failure. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a differentiated model reduced the number of visits between stable clients and physicians, reduced the medical resources required for treatment and enabled integrated treatment of the main co-morbidities. We hope that these findings will encourage other stakeholders to implement innovative models of HIV care in Myanmar, further expediting the scale up of ART services, the decentralization of treatment and the integration of care for the main HIV co-morbidities in this context.

Ebola management centre proximity associated with reduced delays of healthcare of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) patients, Tonkolili, Sierra Leone, 2014-15.

Between August-December 2014, Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) patients from Tonkolili District were referred for care to two Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Ebola Management Centres (EMCs) outside the district (distant EMCs). In December 2014, MSF opened an EMC in Tonkolili District (district EMC). We examined the effect of opening a district-based EMC on time to admission and number of suspect cases dead on arrival (DOA), and identified factors associated with fatality in EVD patients, residents in Tonkolili District. Residents of Tonkolili district who presented between 12 September 2014 and 23 February 2015 to the district EMC and the two distant EMCs were identified from EMC line-lists. EVD cases were confirmed by a positive Ebola PCR test. We calculated time to admission since the onset of symptoms, case-fatality and adjusted Risk Ratios (aRR) using Binomial regression. Of 249 confirmed Ebola cases, 206 (83%) were admitted to the distant EMCs and 43 (17%) to the district EMC. Of them 110 (45%) have died. Confirmed cases dead on arrival (n = 10) were observed only in the distant EMCs. The median time from symptom onset to admission was 6 days (IQR 4,8) in distant EMCs and 3 days (IQR 2,7) in the district EMC (p<0.001). Cases were 2.0 (95%CI 1.4-2.9) times more likely to have delayed admission (>3 days after symptom onset) in the distant compared with the district EMC, but were less likely (aRR = 0.8; 95%CI 0.6-1.0) to have a high viral load (cycle threshold ≤22). A fatal outcome was associated with a high viral load (aRR 2.6; 95%CI 1.8-3.6) and vomiting at first presentation (aRR 1.4; 95%CI 1.0-2.0). The opening of a district EMC was associated with earlier admission of cases to appropriate care facilities, an essential component of reducing EVD transmission. High viral load and vomiting at admission predicted fatality. Healthcare providers should consider the location of EMCs to ensure equitable access during Ebola outbreaks.

Evaluation of Pastorex meningitis kit performance for the rapid identification of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC) has caused outbreaks in Nigeria of increasing size in three consecutive years since 2013. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for meningitis can facilitate quick identification of the causative pathogen; Pastorex can detect N. meningitidis serogroups A, C (NmC), Y/W135, N. meningitidis serogroup B/Escherichia coli K1, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, and group B Streptococcus. There is no published field evaluation of Pastorex in the identification of NmC. We report our experience with Pastorex in detecting NmC in field conditions. METHODS: During sequential outbreaks of NmC in Nigeria in 2013, 2014 and 2015, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was collected from suspected cases of meningitis that met the case definition. Pastorex latex agglutination rapid test was done in the field and trans-isolate media were inoculated with CSF for culture and/or PCR, which was used as the reference standard for 63 paired samples. RESULTS: The sensitivity of Pastorex for NmC was 80.0% (95% CI 65.4-90.4%) and the specificity was 94.4% (95% CI 72.7-99.9%). The positive likelihood ratio (LR) was 14.4 (95% CI 2.1-97.3) and negative LR was 0.2 (95% CI 0.1-0.4). The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 97.3% (95% CI 85.8-99.9) and 65.4% (95% CI 44.3-82.8), respectively, with a prevalence estimate of 71.4% (95% CI 58.6-82.1). CONCLUSION: Pastorex showed good performance in detecting NmC under field conditions. Prepositioning Pastorex at peripheral health facilities during non-epidemic periods is constrained by a short shelf-life of 1 month after the kit is opened. There is need for development of RDTs that are cheaper and with less challenging requirements for storage and usage.

Invasive Meningococcal Meningitis Serogroup C Outbreak in Northwest Nigeria, 2015 - Third Consecutive Outbreak of a New Strain.

BACKGROUND: In northwest Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, two sequential, localized outbreaks of meningitis were caused by a new strain of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC). In 2015, an outbreak caused by the same novel NmC strain occurred over a wider geographical area, displaying different characteristics to the previous outbreaks. We describe cases treated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in the 2015 outbreak.  METHODS: From February 10 to June 8, 2015, data on cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) cases and deaths were recorded on standardized line-lists from case management sites supported by MSF. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from suspected cases at the beginning of the outbreak and throughout from suspected cases from new geographical areas were tested using rapid Pastorex® latex agglutination to determine causative serogroup. A subset of CSF samples was also inoculated into Trans-Isolate medium for testing by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Meningococci, Oslo. Reactive vaccination campaigns with meningococcal ACWY polysaccharide vaccine targeted affected administrative wards.  RESULTS: A total of 6394 (65 confirmed and 6329 probable) cases of CSM including 321 deaths (case fatality rate: 5.0%) were recorded. The cumulative attack rate was 282 cases per 100,000 population in the wards affected. The outbreak lasted 17 weeks, affecting 1039 villages in 21 local government areas in three states (Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger). Pastorex® tests were NmC positive for 65 (58%) of 113 CSF samples. Of 31 Trans-Isolate medium samples, 26 (84%) tested positive for NmC (14 through culture and 12 through PCR); all had the same rare PorA type P1.21-15,16 as isolates from the 2013 and 2014 outbreaks. All 14 culture-positive samples yielded isolates of the same genotype (ST-10217 PorA type P1.21-15,16 and FetA type F1-7). More than 222,000 targeted individuals were vaccinated relatively early in the outbreak (administrative coverage estimates 98% and 89% in Kebbi and Sokoto, respectively).  CONCLUSIONS:  The outbreak was the largest caused by NmC documented in Nigeria. Reactive vaccination in both states may have helped curtail the epidemic. A vaccination campaign against NmC with a long-lasting conjugate vaccine should be considered in the region.

Risk factors for unstructured treatment interruptions and association with survival in low to middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment interruptions lead to poor clinical outcomes with unplanned or unstructured TIs (uTIs) likely to be underreported. This study describes; uTIs, their risk factors and association with survival. METHODS: Analysis of ART programmatic data from 11 countries across Asia and Africa between 2003 and 2013 where an uTI was defined as a ≥90-day patient initiated break from ART calculated from the last day the previous ART prescription would have run out until the date of the next ART prescription. Factors predicting uTI were assessed with a conditional risk-set multiple failure time-to-event model to account for repeated events per subject. Association between uTI and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards, with a competing risks extension to test for the influence of lost to follow-up (LTFU). RESULTS: 40,632 patients were included from 11 countries across 33 sites (17 Africa, 16 Asia). Median duration of follow-up was 1.61 years (IQR 0.54-3.31 years), 3386 (8.3 %) patients died, and 3453 (8.5 %) were LTFU. There were 14,817 uTIs, with 10,162 (25 %) patients having more than one uTI. In the adjusted model males were at lower risk of uTI (aHR 0.94, p < 0.01, and age 20-59 was protective compared to <20 years (20-39 years aHR 0.87, p < 0.01; 40-59 years aHR 0.86, p < 0.01). Preserved immune function, as measured by higher CD4 cell count, was associated with a reduced rate of uTI compared to CD4 <200 cells/µL (CD4 200-350 cells/µL aHR 0.89, p < 0.01; CD4 >350 cells/µL aHR 0.87, p < 0.01), whereas advanced clinical disease was associated with increased uTI rate (WHO stage 3 aHR 1.10, p < 0.01; WHO stage 4 aHR 1.21, p < 0.01). There was no relationship between uTI and mortality after adjusting for disease status and considering LTFU as a competing risk. CONCLUSIONS: uTIs were frequent in people in ART programs in low-middle income countries and associated with younger age, female gender and advanced HIV. uTI did not predict survival when loss to follow-up was considered a competing risk. Further evaluation of uTI predictors and interventions to reduce their occurrence is warranted.

Where there is hope: a qualitative study examining patients' adherence to multi-drug resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan.

BACKGROUND: Treatment for multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is lengthy, has severe side effects, and raises adherence challenges. In the Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) and Ministry of Health (MoH) programme in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan, a region with a high burden of MDR-TB, patient loss from treatment (LFT) remains high despite adherence support strategies. While certain factors associated with LFT have been identified, there is limited understanding of why some patients are able to adhere to treatment while others are not. We conducted a qualitative study to explore patients' experiences with MDR-TB treatment, with the aim of providing insight into the barriers and enablers to treatment-taking to inform future strategies of adherence support. METHODS: Participants were purposively selected. Programme data were analysed to enable stratification of patients by adherence category, gender, and age. 52 in-depth interviews were conducted with MDR-TB patients (n = 35) and health practitioners (n = 12; MSF and MoH doctors, nurses, and counsellors), including five follow-up interviews. Interview notes, then transcripts, were analysed using coding to identify emerging patterns and themes. Manual analysis drew upon principles of grounded theory with constant comparison of codes and categories within and between cases to actively seek discrepancies and generate concepts from participant accounts. Ethics approval was received from the MoH of the Republic of Uzbekistan Ethics Committee and MSF Ethics Review Board. RESULTS: Several factors influenced adherence. Hope and high quality knowledge supported adherence; autonomy and control enabled optimal engagement with treatment-taking; and perceptions of the body, self, treatment, and disease influenced drug tolerance. As far as we are aware, the influence of patient autonomy and control on MDR-TB treatment-taking has not previously been described. In particular, the autonomy of married women around treatment-taking was potentially undermined through their societal position as daughter-in-law, compromising their ability to adhere to treatment. Patients' engagement with and adherence to treatment could be hindered by hierarchical practitioner-patient relationships that displaced authority, ownership, and responsibility from the patient. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce the need for an individualised and holistic approach to adherence support with engagement of patients as active participants in their care who feel ownership and responsibility for their treatment.