Development and Validation of a Noninvasive Model for the Detection of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Unresectable HCC.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-invasive variceal risk stratification systems have not been validated in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which presents logistical barriers for patients in the setting of systemic HCC therapy. We aimed to develop and validate a non-invasive algorithm for the prediction of varices in patients with unresectable HCC. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 21 centers in the US including adult patients with unresectable HCC and Child Pugh A5-B7 cirrhosis diagnosed between 2007 and2019. We included patients who completed an esophagogastroduodonoscopy (EGD) within 12 months of index imaging but prior to HCC treatment. We divided the cohort into a 70:30 training set and validation set, with the goal of maximizing negative predictive value (NPV) to avoid EGD in low-risk patients. RESULTS: We included 707 patients (median age 64.6 years, 80.6% male and 74.0% White). Median time from HCC diagnosis to EGD was 47 (IQR: 114) days, with 25.0% of patients having high-risk varices. A model using clinical variables alone achieved a NPV of 86.3% in the validation cohort, while a model integrating clinical and imaging variables had an NPV 97.4% in validation. The clinical and imaging model would avoid EGDs in over half of low-risk patients while misclassifying 7.7% of high-risk patients. CONCLUSION: A model incorporating clinical and imaging data can accurately predict the absence of high-risk varices in patients with HCC and avoid EGD in many low-risk patients prior to the initiation of systemic therapy, thus expediting their care and avoiding treatment delays.

Differences in excess mortality by recipient sex after heart transplant: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identification of differences in mortality risk between female and male heart transplant recipients may prompt sex-specific management strategies. Because worldwide, males of all ages have higher absolute mortality rates than females, we aimed to compare the excess risk of mortality (risk above the general population) in female vs male heart transplant recipients. METHODS: We used relative survival models conducted separately in SRTR and CTS cohorts from 1988-2019, and subsequently combined using 2-stage individual patient data meta-analysis, to compare the excess risk of mortality in female vs male first heart transplant recipients, accounting for the modifying effects of donor sex and recipient current age. RESULTS: We analyzed 108,918 patients. When the donor was male, female recipients 0-12 years (Relative excess risk (RER) 1.13, 95% CI 1.00-1.26), 13-44 years (RER 1.17, 95% CI 1.10-1.25), and ≥45 years (RER 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.27) showed higher excess mortality risks than male recipients of the same age. When the donor was female, only female recipients 13-44 years showed higher excess risks of mortality than males (RER 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.20), though not significantly (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of a male donor, female recipients of all ages had significantly higher excess mortality than males. When the donor was female, female recipients of reproductive age had higher excess risks of mortality than male recipients of the same age, though this was not statistically significant. Further investigation is required to determine the reasons underlying these differences.

Variations in Practice Among Cirrhotic Patients With Portal Vein Thrombosis and Esophageal Varices: A North American Survey Study.

INTRODUCTION: There exists variation regarding the approach to anticoagulation and variceal hemorrhage (VH) prophylaxis among patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis (PVT). METHODS: A survey was distributed to gastroenterology and hepatology providers to assess the approach to anticoagulation and VH prophylaxis among patients with PVT in cirrhotic patients. RESULTS: Providers were more likely to start anticoagulation if the patient was listed for liver transplantation, was symptomatic, or had superior mesenteric vein thrombosis. For prevention of first VH, many providers opt for combination therapy with both nonselective beta blockers and variceal ligation. DISCUSSION: Although providers agree on the clinical scenarios that merit initiation of anticoagulation, practice variation was identified in the means of preventing first VH.

Challenges in Accurate Diagnosis of HCC in FALD: A Case Series.

Patients with single ventricle cardiac disease palliated with Fontan procedures inevitably develop Fontan-Associated Liver Disease (FALD), which poses a significant risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Standard imaging criteria for the diagnosis of cirrhosis are not reliable due to parenchymal heterogeneity of FALD. We present 6 cases to demonstrate our center's experience and the challenges in diagnosing HCC within this patient population.

Recall patterns and risk of primary liver cancer for subcentimeter ultrasound liver observations: a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cirrhosis and subcentimeter lesions on liver ultrasound are recommended to undergo short-interval follow-up ultrasound because of the presumed low risk of primary liver cancer (PLC). AIMS: The aim of this study is to characterize recall patterns and risk of PLC in patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study among patients with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B infection who had subcentimeter ultrasound lesions between January 2017 and December 2019. We excluded patients with a history of PLC or concomitant lesions ≥1 cm in diameter. We used Kaplan Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses to characterize time-to-PLC and factors associated with PLC, respectively. RESULTS: Of 746 eligible patients, most (66.0%) had a single observation, and the median diameter was 0.7 cm (interquartile range: 0.5-0.8 cm). Recall strategies varied, with only 27.8% of patients undergoing guideline-concordant ultrasound within 3-6 months. Over a median follow-up of 26 months, 42 patients developed PLC (39 HCC and 3 cholangiocarcinoma), yielding an incidence of 25.7 cases (95% CI, 6.2-47.0) per 1000 person-years, with 3.9% and 6.7% developing PLC at 2 and 3 years, respectively. Factors associated with time-to-PLC were baseline alpha-fetoprotein >10 ng/mL (HR: 4.01, 95% CI, 1.85-8.71), platelet count ≤150 (HR: 4.90, 95% CI, 1.95-12.28), and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis (vs. Child-Pugh A: HR: 2.54, 95% CI, 1.27-5.08). CONCLUSIONS: Recall patterns for patients with subcentimeter liver lesions on ultrasound varied widely. The low risk of PLC in these patients supports short-interval ultrasound in 3-6 months, although diagnostic CT/MRI may be warranted for high-risk subgroups such as those with elevated alpha-fetoprotein levels.

Gender-Specific Factors Influencing Gastroenterologists to Pursue Careers in Advanced Endoscopy: Perceptions vs Reality.

INTRODUCTION: In 2020, only 19% of 63 matched advanced endoscopy (AE) fellows were women. This study evaluates the gender-specific factors that influence gastroenterologists to pursue careers in AE. METHODS: An anonymous survey was distributed to gastroenterology fellows and attendings through various gastroenterology society online forums. Data were collected on demographics, training, mentorship, current practice, family planning, and career satisfaction. RESULTS: Women comprised 71.1% of the 332 respondents. 24.7% of female fellows plan to pursue an AE career compared with 37.5% of male fellows (P = 0.195). The main motivating factor for both genders was interest in the subject area. Interest in another subspecialty was the main deterring factor for both genders. Women were more deterred by absence of same-sex mentors (P < 0.001), perception of gender-based bias in the workplace (P = 0.009), family planning (P = 0.018), fertility/pregnancy risks from radiation (P < 0.001), and lack of ergonomic equipment (P = 0.003). AE gastroenterologists of both genders were satisfied with their career decision and would recommend the field to any fellow. Most respondents (64%) believed that more female role models/mentors would improve representation of women in AE. DISCUSSION: There are multiple gender-specific factors that deter women from pursuing AE. Increasing the number of female role models is strongly perceived to improve representation of women in AE. Most AE attendings are satisfied with their career and would recommend it to fellows of any gender. Thus, early targeted mentorship of female trainees has potential to improve recruitment of women to the field.