A Unifying Framework for Estimating Generation Time in Age-Structured Populations: Implications for Phylogenetics and Conservation Biology.

AbstractGeneration time is a measure of the pace of life and is used to describe processes in population dynamics and evolution. We show that three commonly used mathematical definitions of generation time in age-structured populations can produce different estimates of up to several years for the same set of life history data. We present and prove a mathematical theorem that reveals a general order relation among the definitions. Furthermore, the exact population growth rate at the time of sampling influences estimates of generation time, which calls for attention. For phylogenetic estimates of divergence times between species, included demographic data should be collected when the population growth rate for each species is most common and typical. In conservation biology, demographic data should be collected during phases of population decline in declining species, contrary to common recommendations to use predisturbance data. The results can be used to improve the International Union for Conservation of Nature's recommendation in parameterizing models for evaluating threat categories of threatened species and to avoid underestimating extinction risk.

Origin and expansion of the world's most widespread pinniped: Range-wide population genomics of the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina).

The harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) is the most widely distributed pinniped, occupying a wide variety of habitats and climatic zones across the Northern Hemisphere. Intriguingly, the harbour seal is also one of the most philopatric seals, raising questions as to how it colonized its current range. To shed light on the origin, remarkable range expansion, population structure and genetic diversity of this species, we used genotyping-by-sequencing to analyse ~13,500 biallelic single nucleotide polymorphisms from 286 individuals sampled from 22 localities across the species' range. Our results point to a Northeast Pacific origin of the harbour seal, colonization of the North Atlantic via the Canadian Arctic, and subsequent stepping-stone range expansions across the North Atlantic from North America to Europe, accompanied by a successive loss of genetic diversity. Our analyses further revealed a deep divergence between modern North Pacific and North Atlantic harbour seals, with finer-scale genetic structure at regional and local scales consistent with strong philopatry. The study provides new insights into the harbour seal's remarkable ability to colonize and adapt to a wide range of habitats. Furthermore, it has implications for current harbour seal subspecies delineations and highlights the need for international and national red lists and management plans to ensure the protection of genetically and demographically isolated populations.

Multiple stressors and data deficient populations; a comparative life-history approach sheds new light on the extinction risk of the highly vulnerable Baltic harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena).

Many endangered marine mammal populations are difficult to study, spread out over large areas, and capturing them for branding and research purposes would be unethical. Yet, they are in urgent need for assessment and conservation actions. We suggest collecting data from other more abundant populations of the same species, with careful consideration of body size, age at sexual maturity, and ecological conditions to produce scientifically sound best approximations of vital rates of data deficient endangered populations. The genetically distinct Baltic Sea harbour porpoise population amounts to about 500 animals and is classified as 'Critically Endangered' according to the IUCN red list. Data deficiency on nearly all demographic parameters have precluded systematic investigations of the relative importance of stressors affecting population viability. We took a comparative life history approach and investigated the phenotypic plasticity in somatic and demographic vital rates of seven larger, well studied North Atlantic harbour porpoise populations, enabling us to approximate the missing pieces of the life history of the Baltic population. We parameterized a stochastic, individual-based population model, and performed a population viability analysis for a range of biologically realistic parameter values and scenarios of environmental stressors. The baseline scenario was based on the most representative samples of healthy harbour porpoise populations and challenged with three different levels of bycatches. Due to high levels of endocrine disruptive contaminants observed in Baltic harbour porpoises, we also investigated the effect of a possible reduction in fecundity. Subsequently, the combined effects of bycatches and reduced fecundity were investigated in terms of population growth rate and quasi-extinction risk. The Baltic harbour porpoise population is viable in the baseline scenario without anthropogenic stressors. However, even the lowest estimated bycatch level of 7 individuals per year will lead to a population collapse to ≤50 animals with high probability (0.4-1.0) over the next century, assuming an intermediate or low (<73%) fecundity. Adult survival is of critical importance and mitigation of fishery impacts and reduction of anthropogenic disturbances in the identified main breeding areas are recommended.

Phylogenomic insights to the origin and spread of phocine distemper virus in European harbour seals in 1988 and 2002.

The 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) outbreaks in European harbour seals Phoca vitulina are among the largest mass mortality events recorded in marine mammals. Despite its large impact on harbour seal population numbers, and 3 decades of studies, many questions regarding the spread and temporal origin of PDV remain unanswered. Here, we sequenced and analysed 7123 bp of the PDV genome, including the coding and non-coding regions of the entire P, M, F and H genes in tissues from 44 harbour seals to shed new light on the origin and spread of PDV in 1988 and 2002. The phylogenetic analyses trace the origin of the PDV strain causing the 1988 outbreak to between May 1987 and April 1988, while the origin of the strain causing the 2002 outbreak can be traced back to between June 2001 and May 2002. The analyses further point to several independent introductions of PDV in 1988, possibly linked to a southward mass immigration of harp seals in the winter and spring of 1987-1988. The vector for the 2002 outbreak is unknown, but the epidemiological analyses suggest the subsequent spread of PDV from the epicentre in the Kattegat, Denmark, to haul-out sites in the North Sea through several independent introductions.

Seroprevalence for Brucella spp. in Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida) and East Greenland harp (Pagophilus groenlandicus) and hooded (Cystophora cristata) seals.

Zoonotic infections transmitted from marine mammals to humans in the Baltic and European Arctic are of unknown significance, despite given considerable potential for transmission due to local hunt. Here we present results of an initial screening for Brucella spp. in Arctic and Baltic seal species. Baltic ringed seals (Pusa hispida, n = 12) sampled in October 2015 and Greenland Sea harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus, n = 6) and hooded seals (Cystophora cristata, n = 3) sampled in March 2015 were serologically analysed for antibodies against Brucella spp. The serological analyses were performed using the Rose Bengal Test (RBT) followed by a confirmatory testing of RBT-positive samples by a competitive-enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (C-ELISA). Two of the Baltic ringed seals (a juvenile male and a juvenile female) were seropositive thus indicating previous exposure to a Brucella spp. The findings indicate that ringed seals in the Baltic ecosystem may be exposed to and possibly infected by Brucella spp. No seropositive individuals were detected among the Greenland harp and hooded seals. Although our initial screening shows a zoonotic hazard to Baltic locals, a more in-depth epidemiological investigation is needed in order to determine the human risk associated with this.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Genetic Diversity of Seal Influenza A(H10N7) Virus, Northwestern Europe.

UNLABELLED: Influenza A viruses are major pathogens for humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, and these viruses occasionally cross the species barrier. In spring 2014, increased mortality of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), associated with infection with an influenza A(H10N7) virus, was reported in Sweden and Denmark. Within a few months, this virus spread to seals of the coastal waters of Germany and the Netherlands, causing the death of thousands of animals. Genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes of this seal influenza A(H10N7) virus revealed that it was most closely related to various avian influenza A(H10N7) viruses. The collection of samples from infected seals during the course of the outbreak provided a unique opportunity to follow the adaptation of the avian virus to its new seal host. Sequence data for samples collected from 41 different seals from four different countries between April 2014 and January 2015 were obtained by Sanger sequencing and next-generation sequencing to describe the molecular epidemiology of the seal influenza A(H10N7) virus. The majority of sequence variation occurred in the HA gene, and some mutations corresponded to amino acid changes not found in H10 viruses isolated from Eurasian birds. Also, sequence variation in the HA gene was greater at the beginning than at the end of the epidemic, when a number of the mutations observed earlier had been fixed. These results imply that when an avian influenza virus jumps the species barrier from birds to seals, amino acid changes in HA may occur rapidly and are important for virus adaptation to its new mammalian host. IMPORTANCE: Influenza A viruses are major pathogens for humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. In addition to the continuous circulation of influenza A viruses among various host species, cross-species transmission of influenza A viruses occurs occasionally. Wild waterfowl and shorebirds are the main reservoir for most influenza A virus subtypes, and spillover of influenza A viruses from birds to humans or other mammalian species may result in major outbreaks. In the present study, various sequencing methods were used to elucidate the genetic changes that occurred after the introduction and subsequent spread of an avian influenza A(H10N7) virus among harbor seals of northwestern Europe by use of various samples collected during the outbreak. Such detailed knowledge of genetic changes necessary for introduction and adaptation of avian influenza A viruses to mammalian hosts is important for a rapid risk assessment of such viruses soon after they cross the species barrier.

Integrating genetic data and population viability analyses for the identification of harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations and management units.

Identification of populations and management units is an essential step in the study of natural systems. Still, there is limited consensus regarding how to define populations and management units, and whether genetic methods allow for inference at the relevant spatial and temporal scale. Here, we present a novel approach, integrating genetic, life history and demographic data to identify populations and management units in southern Scandinavian harbour seals. First, 15 microsatellite markers and model- and distance-based genetic clustering methods were used to determine the population genetic structure in harbour seals. Second, we used harbour seal demographic and life history data to conduct population viability analyses (PVAs) in the vortex simulation model in order to determine whether the inferred genetic units could be classified as management units according to Lowe and Allendorf's (Molecular Ecology, 19, 2010, 3038) 'population viability criterion' for demographic independence. The genetic analyses revealed fine-scale population structuring in southern Scandinavian harbour seals and pointed to the existence of several genetic units. The PVAs indicated that the census population size of each of these genetic units was sufficiently large for long-term population viability, and hence that the units could be classified as demographically independent management units. Our study suggests that population genetic inference can offer the same degree of temporal and spatial resolution as 'nongenetic' methods and that the combined use of genetic data and PVAs constitutes a promising approach for delineating populations and management units.

Collapse of a marine mammal species driven by human impacts.

Understanding historical roles of species in ecosystems can be crucial for assessing long term human impacts on environments, providing context for management or restoration objectives, and making conservation evaluations of species status. In most cases limited historical abundance data impedes quantitative investigations, but harvested species may have long-term data accessible from hunting records. Here we make use of annual hunting records for Caspian seals (Pusa caspica) dating back to the mid-19(th) century, and current census data from aerial surveys, to reconstruct historical abundance using a hind-casting model. We estimate the minimum numbers of seals in 1867 to have been 1-1.6 million, but the population declined by at least 90% to around 100,000 individuals by 2005, primarily due to unsustainable hunting throughout the 20(th) century. This collapse is part of a broader picture of catastrophic ecological change in the Caspian over the 20(th) Century. Our results combined with fisheries data show that the current biomass of top predators in the Caspian is much reduced compared to historical conditions. The potential for the Caspian and other similar perturbed ecosystems to sustain natural resources of much greater biological and economic value than at present depends on the extent to which a number of anthropogenic impacts can be harnessed.

Linking climate trends to population dynamics in the Baltic ringed seal: impacts of historical and future winter temperatures.

A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30, 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.

Detecting density dependence in recovering seal populations.

Time series of abundance estimates are commonly used for analyses of population trends and possible shifts in growth rate. We investigate if trends in age composition can be used as an alternative to abundance estimates for detection of decelerated population growth. Both methods were tested under two forms of density dependence and different levels of environmental variation in simulated time series of growth in Baltic gray seals. Under logistic growth, decelerating growth could be statistically confirmed after 16 years based on population counts and 14 years based on age composition. When density dependence sets in first at larger population sizes, the age composition method performed dramatically better than population counts, and a decline could be detected after 4 years (versus 10 years). Consequently, age composition analysis provides a complementary method to detect density dependence, particularly in populations where density dependence sets in late.

Pup production and breeding distribution of the Caspian seal (Phoca caspica) in relation to human impacts.

Aerial surveys of Caspian seals on the winter ice field in Kazakhstan territorial waters were carried out in February 2005 and 2006 to assess the annual pup production for the species and natural predation on newborn pups. Estimated pup production was 21063 in 2005 and 16905 in 2006 (including an estimated figure for pups born in Russian territory in each year). The breeding population size of approximately 20 000 females is much less than published estimates from the late 1980s. Eagles were the principal natural predators of pups. Commercial icebreaker routes passed through areas of dense pup concentrations in 2006, although not in 2005. Our findings have important implications for the development of conservation strategies for the species. Natural mortality, loss to predators, and, more important, the current hunting quota substantially exceed the recruitment of the Caspian seal population. Anthropogenic sources of mortality should be managed to avoid further declines in the species.

Decreasing ice coverage will reduce the breeding success of Baltic grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) females.

Baltic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) alternate between land and ice breeding, depending on ice conditions. We show that the fitness of grey seal females in terms of pup mortality and quality is reduced when breeding on land as compared with ice. The mean preweaning mortality rate on land was 21.1% (range 0% to 31.6%), and correlated with birth density (range 0.5-5.2 pups 100 m(-2)). The mean mortality rate on ice was 1.5%, where the highest density was 0.2 pups 100 m(-2) in particularly dense breeding groups. Mean weights of pups born on ice were significantly greater (48.3 +/- 8.1 kg) at the onset of moult as compared with pups born on land (37.4 +/- 7.8 kg). Because indices of life-time net reproductive rate (pup survival) and pup quality (weaning weight and health) were more auspicious on ice as compared with land, diminishing ice fields will lower the fitness of Baltic grey seal females and substantially increase the risk for quasi-extinction.

Seasonal activity budget of adult baltic ringed seals.

Although ringed seals are important components in oceanic and fresh water ecosystems at high latitudes, little is known about how they exploit these harsh environments. Seasonal activity and diving behaviour of 19 adult Baltic ringed seals were studied by satellite telemetry. We elaborated an activity budget for ten months of the year, extending over the period from moult to the breeding season. Seals from three main regions showed explicit site fidelity and the distributions of animals tagged from different areas did not overlap, suggesting separate stocks. Both the mean duration and the mean depth of dives peaked in June and July. Seals spent 70% (females) to 85% (males) of their time diving in June and July which decreased to 50% in late autumn. Less than one percent of dives exceeded 10 min in females, while 10% of male dives lasted longer than 10 min in June to September. Less than one percent of dives lasted for more than 25 min. Both females and males were most active during day time and hauled out predominantly during the night. Activity patterns during the summer are suggested to be correlated to energy accumulation and prey availability. The information on seasonal activity budget is crucial for developing population energetic models where interactions between ringed seals and other trophic levels can be evaluated.

Phocid seals, seal lice and heartworms: a terrestrial host-parasite system conveyed to the marine environment.

Adaptation of pinnipeds to the marine habitat imposed parallel evolutions in their parasites. Ancestral pinnipeds must have harboured sucking lice, which were ancestors of the seal louse Echinophthirius horridus. The seal louse is one of the few insects that successfully adjusted to the marine environment. Adaptations such as keeping an air reservoir and the ability to hold on to and move on the host were necessary, as well as an adjustment of their life cycle to fit the diving habits of their host. E. horridus are confined to the Northern Hemisphere and have been reported from 9 species of northern phocids belonging to 4 genera, including land-locked seal species. The transmission from seal to seal is only possible when animals are hauled-out on land or ice. Lice are rarely found on healthy adult seals, but frequently on weak and young animals. The seal louse is suggested to play an important role as an intermediate host transmitting the heartworm Acanthocheilonema spirocauda among seals. However, the evidence is restricted to a single study where the first 3 larval stages of the heartworm were shown to develop in the louse. The fourth-stage larvae develop in the blood system of seals and eventually transform into the adult stage that matures in the heart. Since all other studies failed to confirm the presence of heartworm larvae in seal lice, other unknown intermediate hosts could be involved in the transmission of the heartworm. Transplacental transmission of microfilariae in seals has been suggested as an additional possibility, but is not likely to be important since the occurrence of heartworms in adult seals is very rare compared with juveniles. Furthermore, there are no findings of the first 3 larval stages in seals. This review shows that the heartworm infects nearly the same species of seals as the seal louse, except for the grey seal Halichoerus grypus, where the heartworm is absent. Prevalence and intensity of infection differ among regions in the Northern Hemisphere. As for seal lice, heartworms mainly infect immature seals, and after infection the prevalence seems to decrease with increasing age of the host.

Age- and sex-specific mortality patterns in an emerging wildlife epidemic: the phocine distemper in European harbour seals.

Analyses of the dynamics of diseases in wild populations typically assume all individuals to be identical. However, profound effects on the long-term impact on the host population can be expected if the disease has age and sex dependent dynamics. The Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) caused two mass mortalities in European harbour seals in 1988 and in 2002. We show the mortality patterns were highly age specific on both occasions, where young of the year and adult (>4 yrs) animals suffered extremely high mortality, and sub-adult seals (1-3 yrs) of both sexes experienced low mortality. Consequently, genetic differences cannot have played a main role explaining why some seals survived and some did not in the study region, since parents had higher mortality levels than their progeny. Furthermore, there was a conspicuous absence of animals older than 14 years among the victims in 2002, which strongly indicates that the survivors from the previous disease outbreak in 1988 had acquired and maintained immunity to PDV. These specific mortality patterns imply that contact rates and susceptibility to the disease are strongly age and sex dependent variables, underlining the need for structured epidemic models for wildlife diseases. Detailed data can thus provide crucial information about a number of vital parameters such as functional herd immunity. One of many future challenges in understanding the epidemiology of the PDV and other wildlife diseases is to reveal how immune system responses differ among animals in different stages during their life cycle. The influence of such underlying mechanisms may also explain the limited evidence for abrupt disease thresholds in wild populations.

The 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper virus epidemics in European harbour seals.

We present new and revised data for the phocine distemper virus (PDV) epidemics that resulted in the deaths of more than 23 000 harbour seals Phoca vitulina in 1988 and 30,000 in 2002. On both occasions the epidemics started at the Danish island of Anholt in central Kattegat, and subsequently spread to adjacent colonies in a stepwise fashion. However, this pattern was not maintained throughout the epidemics and new centres of infection appeared far from infected populations on some occasions: in 1988 early positive cases were observed in the Irish Sea, and in 2002 the epidemic appeared in the Dutch Wadden Sea, 6 wk after the initiation of the outbreak at Anholt Island. Since the harbour seal is a rather sedentary species, such 'jumps' in the spread among colonies suggest that another vector species could have been involved. We discussed the role of sympatric species as disease vectors, and suggested that grey seal populations could act as reservoirs for PDV if infection rates in sympatric species are lower than in harbour seals. Alternatively, grey seals could act as subclinical infected carriers of the virus between Arctic and North Sea seal populations. Mixed colonies of grey and harbour seal colonies are found at all locations where the jumps occurred. It seems likely that grey seals, which show long-distance movements, contributed to the spread among regions. The harbour seal populations along the Norwegian coast and in the Baltic escaped both epidemics, which could be due either to genetic differences among harbour seal populations or to immunity. Catastrophic events such as repeated epidemics should be accounted for in future models and management strategies of wildlife populations.