Does the political will exist to bring quality-assured and affordable drugs to low- and middle-income countries?

BACKGROUND: Increased coverage with antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries has increased their life expectancy associated with non-HIV comorbidities and the need for quality-assured and affordable non-communicable diseases drugs . Funders are leaving many middle-income countries that will have to pay and provide quality-assured and affordable HIV and non-HIV drugs, including for non-communicable diseases. OBJECTIVE: To estimate costs for originator and generic antiretroviral therapy as the number of people living with HIV are projected to increase between 2016 and 2026, and discuss country, regional and global factors associated with increased access to generic drugs. METHODS: Based on estimates of annual demand and prices, annual cost estimates were produced for generic and originator antiretroviral drug prices in low- and middle-income countries and projected for 2016-2026. RESULTS: Drug costs varied between US$1.5 billion and US$4.8 billion for generic drugs and US$ 8.2 billion and US$16.5 billion for originator drugs between 2016 and 2026. DISCUSSION: The global HIV response increased access to affordable generic drugs in low- and middle-income countries. Cheaper active pharmaceutical ingredients and market competition were responsible for reduced drug costs. The development and implementation of regulatory changes at country, regional and global levels, covering intellectual property rights and public health, and flexibilities in patent laws enabled prices to be reduced. These changes have not yet been applied in many low- and middle-income countries for HIV, nor for other infectious and non-communicable diseases, that lack the profile and political attention of HIV. Licensing backed up with Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights safeguards should become the norm to provide quality-assured and affordable drugs within competitive generic markets. CONCLUSION: Does the political will exist among policymakers and other stakeholders to develop and implement these country, regional and global frameworks for non-HIV drugs as they did for antiretroviral drugs?

The WHO public health approach to HIV treatment and care: looking back and looking ahead.

In 2006, WHO set forth its vision for a public health approach to delivering antiretroviral therapy. This approach has been broadly adopted in resource-poor settings and has provided the foundation for scaling up treatment to over 19·5 million people. There is a global commitment to end the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat by 2030 and, to support this goal, there are opportunities to adapt the public health approach to meet the ensuing challenges. These challenges include the need to improve identification of people with HIV infection through expanded approaches to testing; further simplify and improve treatment and laboratory monitoring; adapt the public health approach to concentrated epidemics; and link HIV testing, treatment, and care to HIV prevention. Implementation of these key public health principles will bring countries closer to the goals of controlling the HIV epidemic and providing universal health coverage.

Projected Uptake of New Antiretroviral (ARV) Medicines in Adults in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Forecast Analysis 2015-2025.

With anti-retroviral treatment (ART) scale-up set to continue over the next few years it is of key importance that manufacturers and planners in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic are able to anticipate and respond to future changes to treatment regimens, generics pipeline and demand, in order to secure continued access to all ARV medicines required. We did a forecast analysis, using secondary WHO and UNAIDS data sources, to estimate the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the market share and demand for a range of new and existing ARV drugs in LMICs up to 2025. UNAIDS estimates 24.7 million person-years of ART in 2020 and 28.5 million person-years of ART in 2025 (24.3 million on first-line treatment, 3.5 million on second-line treatment, and 0.6 million on third-line treatment). Our analysis showed that TAF and DTG will be major players in the ART regimen by 2025, with 8 million and 15 million patients using these ARVs respectively. However, as safety and efficacy of dolutegravir (DTG) and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) during pregnancy and among TB/HIV co-infected patients using rifampicin is still under debate, and ART scale-up is predicted to increase considerably, there also remains a clear need for continuous supplies of existing ARVs including TDF and EFV, which 16 million and 10 million patients-respectively-are predicted to be using in 2025. It will be important to ensure that the existing capacities of generics manufacturers, which are geared towards ARVs of higher doses (such as TDF 300mg and EFV 600mg), will not be adversely impacted due to the introduction of lower dose ARVs such as TAF 25mg and DTG 50mg. With increased access to viral load testing, more patients would be using protease inhibitors containing regimens in second-line, with 1 million patients on LPV/r and 2.3 million on ATV/r by 2025. However, it will remain important to continue monitoring the evolution of ARV market in LMICs to guarantee the availability of these medicines.

Availability and Use of HIV Monitoring and Early Infant Diagnosis Technologies in WHO Member States in 2011-2013: Analysis of Annual Surveys at the Facility Level.

BACKGROUND: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets have reinforced the importance of functioning laboratory services to ensure prompt diagnosis and to assess treatment efficacy. We surveyed the availability and utilization of technologies for HIV treatment monitoring and early infant diagnosis (EID) in World Health Organization (WHO) Member States. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The survey questionnaire included 14 structured questions focusing on HIV testing, cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) testing, HIV viral load (VL) testing, and EID and was administered annually from 2012 to 2014 through WHO country offices, with each survey covering the previous 12-mo period. Across 127 targeted countries, survey response rates were 60% in 2012, 67% in 2013, and 78% in 2014. There were encouraging trends towards increased procurement of CD4 and VL/EID instruments in reporting countries. Globally, the capacity of available CD4 instruments was sufficient to meet the demand of all people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), irrespective of treatment status (4.62 theoretical tests per PLWHA in 2013 [median 7.33; interquartile range (IQR) 3.44-17.75; median absolute deviation (MAD) 4.35]). The capacity of VL instruments was inadequate to cover all PLWHA in many reporting countries (0.44 tests per PLWHA in 2013 [median 0.90; IQR 0.30-2.40; MAD 0.74]). Of concern, only 13.7% of existing CD4 capacity (median 4.3%; IQR 1.1%-12.1%; MAD 3.8%) and only 36.5% of existing VL capacity (median 9.4%; IQR 2.3%-28.9%; MAD 8.2%) was being utilized across reporting countries in 2013. By the end of 2013, 7.4% of all CD4 instruments (5.8% CD4 conventional instruments and 11.0% of CD4 point of care [POC]) and 10% of VL/EID instruments were reportedly not in use because of lack of reagents, the equipment not being installed or deployed, maintenance, and staff training requirements. Major limitations of this survey included under-reporting and/or incomplete reporting in some national programmes and noncoverage of the private sector. CONCLUSION: This is the first attempt to comprehensively gather information on HIV testing technology coverage in WHO Member States. The survey results suggest that major operational changes will need to be implemented, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, if the 90-90-90 targets are to be met.

The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS: We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS: Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION: Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING: World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

Ensuring quality: a key consideration in scaling-up HIV-related point-of-care testing programs.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the WHO/US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief consultation was to discuss innovative strategies, offer guidance, and develop a comprehensive policy framework for implementing quality-assured HIV-related point-of-care testing (POCT). METHODS: The consultation was attended by representatives from international agencies (WHO, UNICEF, UNITAID, Clinton Health Access Initiative), United States Agency for International Development, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief Cooperative Agreement Partners, and experts from more than 25 countries, including policy makers, clinicians, laboratory experts, and program implementers. MAIN OUTCOMES: There was strong consensus among all participants that ensuring access to quality of POCT represents one of the key challenges for the success of HIV prevention, treatment, and care programs. The following four strategies were recommended: implement a newly proposed concept of a sustainable quality assurance cycle that includes careful planning; definition of goals and targets; timely implementation; continuous monitoring; improvements and adjustments, where necessary; and a detailed evaluation; the importance of supporting a cadre of workers [e.g. volunteer quality corps (Q-Corps)] with the role to ensure that the quality assurance cycle is followed and sustained; implementation of the new strategy should be seen as a step-wise process, supported by development of appropriate policies and tools; and joint partnership under the leadership of the ministries of health to ensure sustainability of implementing novel approaches. CONCLUSION: The outcomes of this consultation have been well received by program implementers in the field. The recommendations also laid the groundwork for developing key policy and quality documents for the implementation of HIV-related POCT.

Prices paid for adult and paediatric antiretroviral treatment by low- and middle-income countries in 2012: high, low or just right?

A viable market for antiretroviral drugs in low- and middle-income countries is key to the continued scale-up of antiretroviral treatment. We describe the price paid by low- and middle-income countries for 10 first- and 7 second-line adult and paediatric treatment regimens from 2003 to 2012, and compare the price of their finished formulations with the price of their active pharmaceutical ingredients in 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012. Between 2003 and 2012 the median price of adult first-line treatment regimens per treatment-year decreased from USD499 to USD122, and that of second-line regimens from USD2,934 to USD497. In 2005 adult formulations were sold for a price 170% higher than the cost of their active pharmaceutical ingredients. This margin had decreased to 28% in 2012. Between 2004 and 2013, the price of paediatric treatment per treatment-year decreased from USD585 to USD147 for first-line and from USD763 to USD288 for second-line treatment. In 2005, paediatric treatment regimens were sold at a price 231% higher than the cost of their active pharmaceutical ingredients. This margin remained high and was 195% in 2012. The prices paid for antiretroviral drugs by low- and middle-income countries decreased between 2003 and 2012. Although the margins on their sale decreased, there is likely still space for price reduction, especially for the more recent World Health Organization recommended adult first-line regimens and for paediatric treatment.

Adoption of national recommendations related to use of antiretroviral therapy before and shortly following the launch of the 2013 WHO consolidated guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the status of key national policies on the use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the time of the launch of the 2013 WHO consolidated guidelines as well as to track early progress towards adoption of these recommendations following dissemination. DESIGN: Descriptive analysis of global data on baseline ART policies as of June 2013 and early intentions to adopt the 2013 WHO for use of antiretroviral drugs guidelines as of November 2013. METHODS: Compilation of existing global reports on key HIV policies, review of national guidelines, data collection through annual drug procurement surveys and through guidelines dissemination meetings in each of the six WHO regions. RESULTS: Data were available from 124 low- and middle-income countries, including 97% of the 57 high-priority countries that have been identified by WHO and the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). At baseline, only one country reported recommending antiretroviral therapy (ART) at a CD4 T-cell count 250 cells/µl or less for adults and adolescents in 2013, whereas nine countries already recommended using CD4 T-cell count 500 cells/µl or less. Recommendations for ART initiation regardless of CD4 T-cell count for HIV-infected patients with tuberculosis (86%), hepatitis B (75%), all HIV-infected women who were pregnant or breastfeeding (option B+: 40%) or HIV-infected persons in a serodiscordant relationship (26%) had been nationally adopted as of June 2013. Eight of 67 countries (12%) already recommended treating all children less than 5 years of age. The triple antiretroviral combination of tenofovir + lamivudine (or emtricitabine) + efavirenz was recommended as the preferred first-line option for adults and adolescents more frequently (51%) than for pregnant women (38%), or for both adults/adolescents and pregnant women (28%; P < 0.05). Fewer than half (37%) of all countries reported recommending lopinavir/ritonavir for all HIV-infected children less than 3 years of age; 54% of countries reported recommending routine viral load monitoring, whereas only 41% recommended nurse-initiated ART. CONCLUSIONS: A number of key WHO policy recommendations on antiretroviral drug use were adopted rapidly by countries in advance of or shortly following the launch of the 2013 guidelines. Efforts are needed to support and track ongoing policy adoption and ensure that it is accompanied by the scale-up of evidence-based interventions.

Systematic review of the use of dried blood spots for monitoring HIV viral load and for early infant diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Dried blood spots (DBS) have been used as alternative specimens to plasma to increase access to HIV viral load (VL) monitoring and early infant diagnosis (EID) in remote settings. We systematically reviewed evidence on the performance of DBS compared to plasma for VL monitoring and EID. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Thirteen peer reviewed HIV VL publications and five HIV EID papers were included. Depending on the technology and the viral load distribution in the study population, the percentage of DBS samples that are within 0.5 log of VL in plasma ranged from 52-100%. Because the input sample volume is much smaller in a blood spot, there is a risk of false negatives with DBS. Sensitivity of DBS VL was found to be 78-100% compared to plasma at VL below 1000 copies/ml, but this increased to 100% at a threshold of 5000 copies/ml. Unlike a plasma VL test which measures only cell free HIV RNA, a DBS VL also measures proviral DNA as well as cell-associated RNA, potentially leading to false positive results when using DBS. The systematic review showed that specificity was close to 100% at DBS VL above 5000 copies/ml, and this threshold would be the most reliable for predicting true virologic failure using DBS. For early infant diagnosis, DBS has a sensitivity of 100% compared to fresh whole blood or plasma in all studies. CONCLUSIONS: Although limited data are available for EID, DBS offer a highly sensitive and specific sampling strategy to make viral load monitoring and early infant diagnosis more accessible in remote settings. A standardized approach for sampling, storing, and processing DBS samples would be essential to allow successful implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO Registration #: CRD42013003621.

Systematic review of the performance of HIV viral load technologies on plasma samples.

BACKGROUND: Viral load (VL) monitoring is the standard of care in developing country settings for detecting HIV treatment failure. Since 2010 the World Health Organization has recommended a phase-in approach to VL monitoring in resource-limited settings. We conducted a systematic review of the accuracy and precision of HIV VL technologies for treatment monitoring. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A search of Medline and Embase was conducted for studies evaluating the accuracy or reproducibility of commercially available HIV VL assays. 37 studies were included for review including evaluations of the Amplicor Monitor HIV-1 v1.5 (n = 25), Cobas TaqMan v2.0 (n = 11), Abbott RealTime HIV-1 (n = 23), Versant HIV-1 RNA bDNA 3.0 (n = 15), Versant HIV-1 RNA kPCR 1.0 (n = 2), ExaVir Load v3 (n = 2), and NucliSens EasyQ v2.0 (n = 1). All currently available HIV VL assays are of sufficient sensitivity to detect plasma virus levels at a lower detection limit of 1,000 copies/mL. Bias data comparing the Abbott RealTime HIV-1, TaqMan v2.0 to the Amplicor Monitor v1.5 showed a tendency of the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 to under-estimate results while the TaqMan v2.0 overestimated VL counts. Compared to the Amplicor Monitor v1.5, 2-26% and 9-70% of results from the Versant bDNA 3.0 and Abbott RealTime HIV-1 differed by greater than 0.5log10. The average intra and inter-assay variation of the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 were 2.95% (range 2.0-5.1%) and 5.44% (range 1.17-30.00%) across the range of VL counts (2log10-7log10). CONCLUSIONS: This review found that all currently available HIV VL assays are of sufficient sensitivity to detect plasma VL of 1,000 copies/mL as a threshold to initiate investigations of treatment adherence or possible treatment failure. Sources of variability between VL assays include differences in technology platform, plasma input volume, and ability to detect HIV-1 subtypes. Monitoring of individual patients should be performed on the same technology platform to ensure appropriate interpretation of changes in VL. Prospero registration # CD42013003603.

Utilization patterns and projected demand of antiretroviral drugs in low- and middle-income countries.

Background. The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings has greatly increased demand for antiretroviral medicines and raised the importance of good forward planning, especially in the context of the new 2010 WHO treatment guidelines. Methods. Forecasting of the number of people receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2010 to 2012 was produced using three approaches: linear projection, country-set targets, and a restricted scenario. Two additional scenarios were then used to project the demand for various antiretroviral medicines under a fast and slower phase-out of stavudine. Results. We projected that between 7.1 million and 8.4 million people would be receiving ART by the end of 2012. Of these, 6.6% will be on second-line therapy. High variation in forecast includes reductions in the demand for d4T and d4T increases in the demand for tenofovir, emtricitabine followed by efavirenz, ritonavir, zidovudine and lopinavir; lamivudine, atazanavir, and nevirapine. Conclusion. Despite the global economic crisis and in response to the revised treatment guidelines, our model forecasts an increasing and shifting demand for antiretrovirals in resource-limited settings not only to provide treatment to new patients, but also to those switching to less toxic regimens.

The WHO/PEPFAR collaboration to prepare an operations manual for HIV prevention, care, and treatment at primary health centers in high-prevalence, resource-constrained settings: defining laboratory services.

The expansion of HIV/AIDS care and treatment in resource-constrained countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, has generally developed in a top-down manner. Further expansion will involve primary health centers where human and other resources are limited. This article describes the World Health Organization/President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief collaboration formed to help scale up HIV services in primary health centers in high-prevalence, resource-constrained settings. It reviews the contents of the Operations Manual developed, with emphasis on the Laboratory Services chapter, which discusses essential laboratory services, both at the center and the district hospital level, laboratory safety, laboratory testing, specimen transport, how to set up a laboratory, human resources, equipment maintenance, training materials, and references. The chapter provides specific information on essential tests and generic job aids for them. It also includes annexes containing a list of laboratory supplies for the health center and sample forms.