Factors associated with case fatality of human H5N1 virus infections in Indonesia: a case series.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia has had the most human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) and one of the highest case-fatality rates worldwide. We described the factors associated with H5N1 case-fatality in Indonesia. METHODS: Between June, 2005, and February, 2008, there were 127 confirmed H5N1 infections. Investigation teams were deployed to investigate and manage each confirmed case; they obtained epidemiological and clinical data from case-investigation reports when possible and through interviews with patients, family members, and key individuals. FINDINGS: Of the 127 patients with confirmed H5N1 infections, 103 (81%) died. Median time to hospitalisation was 6 days (range 1-16). Of the 122 hospitalised patients for whom data were available, 121 (99%) had fever, 107 (88%) cough, and 103 (84%) dyspnoea on reaching hospital. However, for the first 2 days after onset, most had non-specific symptoms; only 31 had both fever and cough, and nine had fever and dyspnoea. Median time from onset to oseltamivir treatment was 7 days (range 0-21 days); treatment started within 2 days for one patient who survived, four (36.4%) of 11 receiving treatment within 2-4 days survived, six (37.5%) of 16 receiving treatment within 5-6 days survived, and ten (18.5%) of 44 receiving treatment at 7 days or later survived (p=0.03). Initiation of treatment within 2 days was associated with significantly lower mortality than was initiation at 5-6 days or later than 7 days (p<0.0001). Mortality was lower in clustered than unclustered cases (odds ratio 33.3, 95% CI 3.13-273). Treatment started at a median of 5 days (range 0-13 days) from onset in secondary cases in clusters compared with 8 days (range 4-16) for primary cases (p=0.04). INTERPRETATION: Development of better diagnostic methods and improved case management might improve identification of patients with H5N1 influenza, which could decrease mortality by allowing for earlier treatment with oseltamivir.

Periodic re-emergence of endemic strains with strong epidemic potential-a proposed explanation for the 2004 Indonesian dengue epidemic.

Indonesia experienced a severe dengue epidemic in the first quarter of 2004 with 58,301 cases and 658 deaths reported to the WHO. All four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes were detected, with DENV-3 the predominant strain. To ascertain the molecular epidemiology of the DENV associated with the epidemic, complete genomes of 15 isolates were sequenced from patient serum collected in Jakarta during the epidemic, and two historical DENV-3 isolates from previous epidemics in 1988 and 1998 were selectively sequenced for comparative studies. Phylogenetic trees for all four serotypes indicate the viruses are endemic strains that have been circulating in Indonesia for a few decades. Whole-genome phylogeny showed the 2004 DENV-3 isolates share high similarity with those isolated in 1998 during a major epidemic in Sumatra. Together these subtype I DENV-3 strains form a Sumatran-Javan clade with demonstrated epidemic potential. No newly-acquired amino acid mutations were found while comparing genomes from the two epidemics. This suggests re-emergence of little-changed endemic strains as causative agents of the epidemic in 2004. Notably, the molecular evidence rules out change in the viral genomes as the trigger of the epidemic.

Epidemiology of cases of H5N1 virus infection in Indonesia, July 2005-June 2006.

BACKGROUND: Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus was detected in domestic poultry in Indonesia beginning in 2003 and is now widespread among backyard poultry flocks in many provinces. The first human case of H5N1 virus infection in Indonesia was identified in July 2005. METHODS: Respiratory specimens were collected from persons with suspected H5N1 virus infection and were tested by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and viral culture. Serum samples were tested by a modified hemagglutinin inhibition antibody and/or microneutralization assay. Epidemiological, laboratory, and clinical data were collected through interviews and medical records review. Close contacts of persons with confirmed H5N1 virus infection were investigated. RESULTS: From July 2005 through June 2006, 54 cases of H5N1 virus infection were identified, with a case-fatality proportion of 76%. The median age was 18.5 years, and 57.4% of patients were male. More than one-third of cases occurred in 7 clusters of blood-related family members. Seventy-six percent of cases were associated with poultry contact, and the source of H5N1 virus infection was not identified in 24% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Sporadic and family clusters of cases of H5N1 virus infection, with a high case-fatality proportion, occurred throughout Indonesia during 2005-2006. Extensive efforts are needed to reduce human contact with sick and dead poultry to prevent additional cases of H5N1 virus infection.

Three Indonesian clusters of H5N1 virus infection in 2005.

BACKGROUND: Since 2003, the widespread ongoing epizootic of avian influenza A (H5N1) among poultry and birds has resulted in human H5N1 cases in 10 countries. The first case of H5N1 virus infection in Indonesia was identified in July 2005. METHODS: We investigated three clusters of Indonesian cases with at least two ill persons hospitalized with laboratory evidence of H5N1 virus infection from June through October 2005. Epidemiologic, clinical, and virologic data on these patients were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: Severe disease occurred among all three clusters, including deaths in two clusters. Mild illness in children was documented in two clusters. The median age of the eight patients was 8.5 years (range, 1 to 38). Four patients required mechanical ventilation, and four of the eight patients (50%) died. In each cluster, patients with H5N1 virus infection were members of the same family, and most lived in the same home. In two clusters, the source of H5N1 virus infection in the index patient was not determined. Virus isolates were available for one patient in each of two clusters, and molecular sequence analyses determined that the isolates were clade 2 H5N1 viruses of avian origin. CONCLUSIONS: In 2005 in Indonesia, clusters of human infection with clade 2 H5N1 viruses included mild, severe, and fatal cases among family members.

Lack of transmission of H5N1 avian-human reassortant influenza viruses in a ferret model.

Avian influenza A H5N1 viruses continue to spread globally among birds, resulting in occasional transmission of virus from infected poultry to humans. Probable human-to-human transmission has been documented rarely, but H5N1 viruses have not yet acquired the ability to transmit efficiently among humans, an essential property of a pandemic virus. The pandemics of 1957 and 1968 were caused by avian-human reassortant influenza viruses that had acquired human virus-like receptor binding properties. However, the relative contribution of human internal protein genes or other molecular changes to the efficient transmission of influenza viruses among humans remains poorly understood. Here, we report on a comparative ferret model that parallels the efficient transmission of H3N2 human viruses and the poor transmission of H5N1 avian viruses in humans. In this model, an H3N2 reassortant virus with avian virus internal protein genes exhibited efficient replication but inefficient transmission, whereas H5N1 reassortant viruses with four or six human virus internal protein genes exhibited reduced replication and no transmission. These findings indicate that the human virus H3N2 surface protein genes alone did not confer efficient transmissibility and that acquisition of human virus internal protein genes alone was insufficient for this 1997 H5N1 virus to develop pandemic capabilities, even after serial passages in a mammalian host. These results highlight the complexity of the genetic basis of influenza virus transmissibility and suggest that H5N1 viruses may require further adaptation to acquire this essential pandemic trait.

Four dengue virus serotypes found circulating during an outbreak of dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever in Jakarta, Indonesia, during 2004.

Periodic outbreaks of dengue have emerged in Indonesia since 1968, with the severity of resulting disease increasing in subsequent years. In early 2004, a purported dengue outbreak erupted across the archipelago, with over 50,000 cases and 603 deaths reported. To confirm the disease aetiology and to provide an epidemiological framework of this epidemic, an investigation was conducted in ten hospitals within the capital city of Jakarta. Clinical and laboratory findings were determined from a cohort of 272 hospitalised patients. Exposure to dengue virus was determined in 180 (66.2%) patients. When clinically assessed, 100 (55.6%) of the 180 patients were classified as having dengue fever (DF), 31 (17.2%) as DF with haemorrhagic manifestations and 49 (27.2%) as dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF). Evidence from haemagglutination inhibition assays suggested that 33/40 (82.5%) of those with DHF from which laboratory evidence was available suffered from a secondary dengue infection. All four dengue viruses were identified upon viral isolation, with DEN-3 being the most predominant serotype recovered, followed by DEN-4, DEN-2 and DEN-1. In summary, the 2004 outbreak of dengue in Jakarta, Indonesia, was characterised by the circulation of multiple virus serotypes and resulted in a relatively high percentage of a representative population of hospitalised patients developing DHF.